Genesis
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The South China Sea decision has been hotly contested. Some have called it a sweeping victory for the Philippines, while others are calling it lame and without merit. The decision won't destroy China and the decision certainly changes the status quo.
China should no longer pursue this line of thinking, the nine dash line. While I agreed with it in the past, due to the fact we are fighting for a global seat, and my belief that a victory of this magnitude would make China the definitive 1B to the US' 1A. Much has changed in the last couple of days.
A strategy of no retreat is not a strategy, Stalin and Hitler both suffered. Consider it this way, no retreat is essentially tying one hand behind your back, it is just as valid as advancing. No logical person would fight with only half the arsenal, why should it not apply here. As long as final victory is achieved, the entire armory needs to be put to work.
To be clear, the decision is a defeat of sort for China, but not in the way most of thought. China is no weaker than we were before the decision, and China is definitely not regressing due to it. The Philippines is the same country after the decision as before it and nothing in terms of the de facto equation has changed. What has changed is the time needed vs benefit has shifted dramatically in the time needed side and time is one thing that shouldn't be wasted.
What China is currently doing is transitioning to a service based economy, to eventually be a hi-tech industrial power. Without dragging this into an economics thread, China will have a good chance of surpassing total GDP of the US in around a decade. Chinese military has grown leaps and bounds. The navy has already seen the hull of 055 in shipyards, J-20 is well on its way to the airforce sometime this year, and perhaps already. The army has replaced many of its older weapons and will most likely cut the rest.
All this signals a rebirth of a great power. Yet here we are tangled in Asia with countries that, for all intent and purposes, can't even make it to regional power status.
China needs to move on. All this advancement will mean nothing, if we can't break free of current complication. We can just as easily win 5-10 years from now as we can today. The equation doesn't change in that sense. Waiting is fruitless.
The best way forward is to move on. Like my favorite strategist Zhang Yi, two step forward and one step back. Now that the Philippines have de jure claim, at least in the eyes of the nations that mattered, even if we take all of the seas and the West do nothing, they can delay the official handing over and the end of the conflict until kingdom come, and we are stuck in Asia fighting with petty squabbles while an entire world is there for the taking.
Having said that, anyone that expects China to just roll over would be delusional. A compromise could be reached, maybe through China paying a rent like a foreign base, or the rights to share the base, with joint patrols over the seas, as well as signing up for other initiatives China initiates and support in future international affairs.
Whatever it is, talks should happen soon, Duterte looks open to talks, that should be taken upon and see where it leads. For some, this maybe hard to swallow, pride wise, but politics has never been about pride. Being bogged down in Asia delays the more important, and the only goal, of great power status. Being in a fight here for 10 years is illogical. Sacrificing the Gold for Bronze.
China should no longer pursue this line of thinking, the nine dash line. While I agreed with it in the past, due to the fact we are fighting for a global seat, and my belief that a victory of this magnitude would make China the definitive 1B to the US' 1A. Much has changed in the last couple of days.
A strategy of no retreat is not a strategy, Stalin and Hitler both suffered. Consider it this way, no retreat is essentially tying one hand behind your back, it is just as valid as advancing. No logical person would fight with only half the arsenal, why should it not apply here. As long as final victory is achieved, the entire armory needs to be put to work.
To be clear, the decision is a defeat of sort for China, but not in the way most of thought. China is no weaker than we were before the decision, and China is definitely not regressing due to it. The Philippines is the same country after the decision as before it and nothing in terms of the de facto equation has changed. What has changed is the time needed vs benefit has shifted dramatically in the time needed side and time is one thing that shouldn't be wasted.
What China is currently doing is transitioning to a service based economy, to eventually be a hi-tech industrial power. Without dragging this into an economics thread, China will have a good chance of surpassing total GDP of the US in around a decade. Chinese military has grown leaps and bounds. The navy has already seen the hull of 055 in shipyards, J-20 is well on its way to the airforce sometime this year, and perhaps already. The army has replaced many of its older weapons and will most likely cut the rest.
All this signals a rebirth of a great power. Yet here we are tangled in Asia with countries that, for all intent and purposes, can't even make it to regional power status.
China needs to move on. All this advancement will mean nothing, if we can't break free of current complication. We can just as easily win 5-10 years from now as we can today. The equation doesn't change in that sense. Waiting is fruitless.
The best way forward is to move on. Like my favorite strategist Zhang Yi, two step forward and one step back. Now that the Philippines have de jure claim, at least in the eyes of the nations that mattered, even if we take all of the seas and the West do nothing, they can delay the official handing over and the end of the conflict until kingdom come, and we are stuck in Asia fighting with petty squabbles while an entire world is there for the taking.
Having said that, anyone that expects China to just roll over would be delusional. A compromise could be reached, maybe through China paying a rent like a foreign base, or the rights to share the base, with joint patrols over the seas, as well as signing up for other initiatives China initiates and support in future international affairs.
Whatever it is, talks should happen soon, Duterte looks open to talks, that should be taken upon and see where it leads. For some, this maybe hard to swallow, pride wise, but politics has never been about pride. Being bogged down in Asia delays the more important, and the only goal, of great power status. Being in a fight here for 10 years is illogical. Sacrificing the Gold for Bronze.
but in contrary, US has made it easy for the world because China has made US bogged down in SCS: ISIS and all anti-American factions will have time to breath, reorganize and re-strengthening and rise on their respective regions, and US will have to run like headless chicken trying to pacify them. And Americans will feel luck if China don't not provide anti-American factions around the world with military assistance as you did in SCS against China.
