How Pakistan could effectively cripple Indian’s air force with rocket artillery, and what is needed.

[Mace]

Big statements made without much substance and proofs to back up the statements.

Are you trying to say that within one day the IAF presumed that Pakistan is not going to respond to their venture on 26th Feb 19 and deescalated!!

IAF will have the upper hand!! OK let's analyse, the IAF supposed superiority was based on their SU 30s, Mirage 2000s, Mig 29 and upgraded Mig 21, in that order. Am I right, I didn't missed any superior assets!!

Were these jets not involved on 26th and 27th Feb 19!!
Did they maintained any superiority on both occasions!!

On 26th they left the theatre quickly by off loading their loads in a hurry.
On 27th 2 jets down, helicopter shot down by the Indians themselves while on search and rescue mission.

The Indians shown the fragment of BVR AMRAM but no news on its intended target.
The Indians decorated their pilots for avoiding BVR AMRAM.

The above facts are not disputed, with some exceptions.

Indians denying the kill of SU 30. But with the same token their own channel showing the news that SU 30 of IAF had been shoot down by PAF. I am sure you can find that clip on the net.

Indians claiming that they shot down F 16. This claim is not supported by any international commentator. PAF has shown the evidence that all 4 BVRs on Abhi's jet were intact. Pakistan has produce the evidence to independent commentator Alan Warnes, who not only accepted but also shown in the video to point to the intact, unused BVR, not fired, which has supposedly shot down the F16.

Similarly story of killing 300 men in the air strike also died down, deservedly like a fake rumour should.

I failed to see that "Superiority" in practice. Please enlighten us all.

Long story short - if knife fight between IAF and PAF today, PAF will bite the dust. SU30s will dominate the skies.

Don’t read too much into Feb27.

 

[Dark1]

I think you're being a bit harsh on the Indian Armed Forces here. While i do agree that PA's artillery is certainly superior to that of the IA, Indian Armed Forces have largely done a good job in modernizing in the last 20 years. IA's Armour/Infantry pack quite a serious punch and if it weren't for the geography across LOC and Punjab, IA's Armour would be the favorite against PA's Armour.
R77 is by no means an inferior missile as it is being portrayed. It was not the AMRAAM's that won the day but it was the entire collective force and aggressive tactics that resulted in PAF's superior performance. This was something that was lacking on the IAF side.



If you personally ask me, IAF does not need the Rafale's to dominate against the PAF. IAF already has the existing resources to win the day. The only thing lacking are the tactics and the employment of those assets in a cohesive manner. It was extremely disappointing to see how IAF wasn't able to pick up PAF's incoming strike package when they were on a high level of alert. Swordfish and Phalcons are extremely potent platforms and can look deep inside Pakistan.



No doubt, as i have said above, India has made very impressive progress in the past 2 decades.



That is something to be seen as to what the balance of power will look like in a decade. But your analysis discounts a major factor in this scenario and that is China. China's military continues to make progress at a break neck speed, and by default Pakistan would have access to their top tech. Russia's military budget is small, Europe is declining, which means in a decade the top two most dominant military powers will be the US and China. It is far cheaper for China to subsidize Pakistan and force the bulk of the Indian Armed Forces to concentrate on Pakistan front.

Well written. The difference is that in India the armed forces are not considered the route to the good life. While in Pakistan it's still a aspirational career. Defence is a very vague concept for much of India, except in a couple of border states. The political classes consider it a total waste of resources, while a recently transferred IAS guy from the postal services will take important decisions on defense issues. What I write might sound frivolous but I know the mentality we have.
Defence is taken very casually and people in power rally behind the forces only when their is a flare up. No real focused approach.
And I dont want to sound dismissive but Pakistan is just a irritant for India, not a real threat.
It's the Chinese who are the real threat. They are a cold calculating people with vast resources and the capacity to take great damage without facing blowback at home.
Our next challenge is going to be with the Chinese , and their sense of entitlement and cultivated grievances.
India should not waste money on aircraft carriers and just concentrate on modernizing its land forces and air force.

 

[Philip the Arab]

Long story short - if knife fight between IAF and PAF today, PAF will bite the dust. SU30s will dominate the skies.

Don’t read too much into Feb27.

That's why a logical force would never do that, if I was PAF currently I would lobby other branches to launch cruise missiles at Indian airbases throughout the region and destroy Su-30s on the ground.

 

[Mace]

That's why a logical force would never do that, if I was PAF currently I would lobby other branches to launch cruise missiles at Indian airbases throughout the region and destroy Su-30s on the ground.

Cruise and ballistic missiles must be used for proper deterrence posturing. If you allow the situation to deteriorate for missiles to be launched then we can all kiss South Asia goodbye.

India has already moved brahmos batteries close to border as deterrent.

 

[Bengal71]

So how long will it take to launch a barrage by one launcher unit!! And if they are mobile units, which they are how much time they need to move away from previous location!!
Obviously PA wouldn't place 10 units next to each other for the Indians to destroy them.
Secondly, you are not telling us, how quickly the Indians can respond to a surprise attacks!!
Before a unit fires all its missiles!!

Come on mate. We are talking about Indians, with out date equipment and very dubious missiles.

Watch this.

BM-30 Smerch has 12 rockets each and looking at this footage it looks like it can fire all 12 rockets in under 1 minute. If 10 of this type are lined up and simultaneously launch, 120 rockets can be delivered in under 1 minute and all of them scoot and move away after that.

So there is about 1 minute + 5 minutes scoot time, total 6 minutes for the enemy forces to accurately detect, pin point, send target data and deploy a system (any system, their own rocket, CM or jets whatever) to counter this. I think 6 minutes is a very very short time to pull this off.

This probably has to be executed in a very planned manner, with every rocket per-programmed with it's exact target data. Then all the systems move to their designated locations, fire and immediately move in different directions. I am sure artillery people are well capable of organizing this.

Only downside of this is PAF airbases can also be subjected to similar attacks by Indians with similar effect. In my opinion, in a full scale war PAF should operate from makeshift highway airfields because major bases will surely be hit.

 

[Philip the Arab]

Cruise and ballistic missiles must be used for proper deterrence posturing. If you allow the situation to deteriorate for missiles to be launched then we can all kiss South Asia goodbye.

India has already moved brahmos batteries close to border as deterrent.

Don't think either side will expect a nuclear attack via cruise missiles. Much more likely it would be launched via ballistic missile. How many LACM Brahmos does India have?

Watch this.

BM-30 Smerch has 12 rockets each and looking at this footage it looks like it can fire all 12 rockets in under 1 minute. If 10 of this type are lined up and simultaneously launch, 120 rockets can be delivered in under 1 minute and all of them scoot and move away after that.

So there is about 1 minute + 5 minutes scoot time, total 6 minutes for the enemy forces to accurately detect, pin point, send target data and deploy a system (any system, their own rocket, CM or jets whatever) to counter this. I think 6 minutes is a very very short time to pull this off.

This probably has to be executed in a very planned manner, with every rocket per-programmed with it's exact target data. Then all the systems move to their designated locations, fire and immediately move in different directions. I am sure artillery people are well capable of organizing this.

Only downside of this is PAF airbases can also be subjected to similar attacks by Indians with similar effect. In my opinion, in a full scale war PAF should operate from makeshift highway airfields because major bases will surely be hit.

Very good, but they don't have to be all individually programmed, they can just target the runway with 32 missiles and allow PAF to destroy aircraft on the ground with SOWs. Also, relaunch another wave in a few hours killing all the workers once safely scooted far away and under protection of air defenses and air defenses.

I would spread 5 vehicles into 1 group miles apart from eachother, each group targets 1 airbase. It will be impossible for India to find all the vehicles.

 

[crankthatskunk]

Long story short - if knife fight between IAF and PAF today, PAF will bite the dust. SU30s will dominate the skies.

Don’t read too much into Feb27.

I am sure if an Indian is saying it must be correct ,right!!

Su 30s had two chances, but what we know that after the two episodes for them to show their superiority, the IAF kept them away from harms way.

We don't understand the actions of IAF. Would you teach them, and ask them why they kept the SU 30s away from the borders!!

The numbers' equation is also changing with more JF 17 introduced in PAF.

You be rest assured, the Rafale threat would be countered effectively by PAF, so don't have any misgiving about it at all.

 

[Bengal71]

Don't think either side will expect a nuclear attack via cruise missiles. Much more likely it would be launched via ballistic missile. How many LACM Brahmos does India have?


Very good, but they don't have to be all individually programmed, they can just target the runway with 20 something missiles and allow PAF to destroy aircraft on the ground with SOWs. Also, relaunch another wave in a few hours killing all the workers once safely scooted far away and under protection of air defenses and air defenses.

I would spread 5 vehicles into 1 group miles apart from eachother, each group targets 1 airbase. It will be impossible for India to find all the vehicles.

I didn't say all 10 must be in the same location. They can be spread miles apart. Also whether 5, 10 or 20 are required will depend on the mission. Their numbers can be determined based on the requirements. I chose 10 as an example only.

If these systems are deployed to throw a barrage, I don't think it will be wise to target runways because runways can be repaired rapidly. Since these are guided systems with high accuracy, they should be used to target hangers, radar building in the airbase, airbase's power supply, fuel depot, ammunition storage and command building. Attack on these things on the airbase will cripple it's operation for far longer than just attacking the runaway.

 

[Philip the Arab]

I didn't say all 10 must be in the same location. They can be spread miles apart. Also whether 5, 10 or 20 are required will depend on the mission. Their numbers can be determined based on the requirements. I chose 10 as an example only.

If these systems are deployed to throw a barrage, I don't think it will be wise to target runways because runways can be repaired rapidly. Since these are guided systems with high accuracy, they should be used to target hangers, radar building in the airbase, airbase's power supply, fuel depot, ammunition storage and command building. Attack on these things on the airbase will cripple it's operation for far longer than just attacking the runaway.

You would have to have Intel on every single location and count on missiles with 30-45 meters CEP to hit them. Is that accurate enough in your opinion for every target?

 

[Bengal71]

You would have to have Intel on every single location and count on missiles with 30-45 meters CEP to hit them. Is that accurate enough in your opinion for every target?

Intel on every single location? Satellite imagery clearly shows which buildings are hangers, and where the radar is and where the main building is. You can also get accurate co-ordinates. Intel is not the problem. Besides these airbases were there for many decades, PAF should already know their co-ordinates.

 

[Philip the Arab]

Intel on every single location? Satellite imagery clearly shows which buildings are hangers, and where the radar is and when the main building is. You can also get accurate co-ordinates. Intel is not the problem.

Would rockets penetrate the reinforced hangars though? Not sure if A300 has a non-frag warhead.

 

[Bengal71]

Would rockets penetrate the reinforced hangars though?

Probably not, but I am not sure all the aircraft will be in hardened hangars. Not all airbases will have hardened hangars. Even if they were, you don't have to destroy every hangar. Main radar, command building, maintenance and repair hangar, fuel depot, ammunition depot and pilots' mess building can be hit and damaged or destroyed. That in itself will be massive blow to any airbase.

 

[Robbie]

I think you're being a bit harsh on the Indian Armed Forces here. While i do agree that PA's artillery is certainly superior to that of the IA, Indian Armed Forces have largely done a good job in modernizing in the last 20 years. IA's Armour/Infantry pack quite a serious punch and if it weren't for the geography across LOC and Punjab, IA's Armour would be the favorite against PA's Armour.
R77 is by no means an inferior missile as it is being portrayed. It was not the AMRAAM's that won the day but it was the entire collective force and aggressive tactics that resulted in PAF's superior performance. This was something that was lacking on the IAF side.

If you personally ask me, IAF does not need the Rafale's to dominate against the PAF. IAF already has the existing resources to win the day. The only thing lacking are the tactics and the employment of those assets in a cohesive manner. It was extremely disappointing to see how IAF wasn't able to pick up PAF's incoming strike package when they were on a high level of alert. Swordfish and Phalcons are extremely potent platforms and can look deep inside Pakistan.

I don't agree. Please let me explain why.

Collective force and tactics don't exist in a vacuum. They are in essence defined by the availability of military equipment/capabilities that you possess and what the counter-party possesses. Also, any platform is fine and potent until it is outranged/outmatched. As of this day, there are glaring shortfalls in the Indian equipment/capabilities which the PAF was able to use to its advantage.

Let me substantiate these points. You are talking about Phalcons and Swordfish being effective platforms yet the truth of the matter is that it's not just about the platform themselves but their numbers, availability rate, sortie rate among other factors that influence the outcome.

India has 3 Phalcons and 2 Netra to cover a country as big as India. In comparison, Pakistan has 8 AWACS, a number more 37% more than what India has, for a country that is geographically less than 40% the size of India. I want to let the numbers sink in. In addition, because the Phalcons are mounted on Il-78, their availability rate is on average around 50% compared to SAAB fleet which manages an availability rate of over 70% (I list conservative numbers). Therefore, a far lower number of AWACS can be deployed on duty by IAF vis-a-vis PAF. IAF lacks the ability to mount 24 hour AWACS surveillance over just 2 points of interest (it takes 3 planes per point of interest to mount 24x7 surveillance). Therefore, they were reduced to 12-hour surveillance shifts to the two places they were monitoring. I hope you are able to appreciate the differences here.

Do you know why this happened? Because the proposal to buy just 2 new AWACS has been pending for nearly a decade without any movement.

Another example, India had a fleet of Su-30's patrolling on CAP and yet they could not engage the F-16 or fire a missile at them. They alternated between going hot and cold at the edge of F-16 radar lock range. The reason is that R-77 lacks the range required by a whopping 30 km. R-77 was a great missile, till the C-5 was introduced in the subcontinent. The Su-30 radar, internal electronics and AAM today are nearly the same that was nearly 15 years ago. The MiG 21 bisons on duty lacked a basic feature of all modern aircraft possess - a software-defined radio (SDR) that is resistant to jamming.

I agree that IAF does not need Rafales to win the day. They can with their present platforms provided they are upgraded with new capabilities that match or exceed what the counter-party acquires. It has to be at least one of the two. Since IAF/MoD was not able to do the latter, they have to do the former.

These are small but very representative samples of the capability gaps that have emerged in the military. There is no need to hold punches back and call things for what they are because Pakistan is not a military threat to India. Pakistan's military capability is built to ensure that it imposes high costs on India to deter India from launching a war, it is not enough to win a war against India. Therefore, I believe there is a need for transparency and honesty in policy circles which would lead to significant reform in India. Honest conversations in the MoD and polity at large led to the biggest military reform in India since 1947 - the creation of the CDS.

No doubt, as i have said above, India has made very impressive progress in the past 2 decades.

In some areas, yes they have done a good job. The availability rates, sortie rate, etc generated by the new equipment is phenomenal. However, this is not in FEBA platforms. Modernization in one area does not mean modernization in a different area. Though if things continue, there will be significant change in most areas. There are military reforms being done at the same time, like CDS with a mandate to improve jointness in training, procurement among other aspects. Collectively, things are moving the right direction, but they have been very late. Indian military for a decade under Congress, was de-prioritized. What is happening now, is the natural outcome of that.

That is something to be seen as to what the balance of power will look like in a decade. But your analysis discounts a major factor in this scenario and that is China. China's military continues to make progress at a break neck speed, and by default Pakistan would have access to their top tech. Russia's military budget is small, Europe is declining, which means in a decade the top two most dominant military powers will be the US and China. It is far cheaper for China to subsidize Pakistan and force the bulk of the Indian Armed Forces to concentrate on Pakistan front.

Yes, China's military continues to make progress at a rapid pace. It is uncertain right now whether their equipment equals or surpasses battlefield performance of US equipment in the future. Also, yes, China will continue to subsidize Pakistan but having the bulk of Indian military gear facing Pakistan is not necessarily a big problem for two major reasons.
One, India is deliberately building infrastructure on the border with China and buying gear that will allow it to rapidly shift deployment from one theater to another. Adequate force capability on the Indian side will ensure China and India never actually get in a shooting war. There are larger factors at play - ranging from force balances, economics, to geopolitics.

 

[Philip the Arab]

Probably not, but I am not sure all the aircraft will be in hardened hangars. Not all airbases will have hardened hangars. Even if they were, you don't have to destroy every hangar. Main radar, command building, maintenance and repair hangar, fuel depot, ammunition depot and pilots' mess building can be hit and damaged or destroyed. That in itself will be massive blow to any airbase.

So assuming you could take out the majority of the Western Air Command, it would be hard for India to run sufficient sorties with tankers to protect it's ground forces and counter the PAF?
Bad worded question

Also, good news you were right.

Launcher is capable of single or salvo firing. It takes 50 seconds to launch a full salvo of 8 rockets. It is claimed that each rocket can be targeted individually. So the A300 can hit up to 8 different targets simultaneously.

 

[Bengal71]

So assuming you could take out the majority of the Western Air Command, it would be hard for India to run sufficient sorties with tankers to protect it's ground forces and counter the PAF?
Bad worded question

No.

I am saying such an attack is in the realm of possibility for the PAK military to pull off. But it is equally possible for the Indian military to pull off with similar effects on Pakistan.

I am saying don't just calculate what you can inflict on the enemy and gloat about it but calculate whether the enemy can inflict the same on you and prepare accordingly for the worst case scenario. In this scenario, I think PAF should have massive preparation to operate from highway airfields with the assumption of the worst case scenario that they would lose their airbases.