How much debt China can bear?

[conworldus]

Bro, the Indian economy is indeed crashing, it is just that nobody outside India cares because it is irrelevant on the global scale.

The ordinary Indians are feeling the pain, though, that's why they need to bash China to feel good.

China government revenue 2011: $1.65 trillion
China government expenditure 2011 :$1.72 trillion.
The fiscal deficit : $75 billion, 0.5% of government revenue.
See my post:
http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-affairs/168293-2011-china-government-revenue-up-24-8-1-65-trillion.html

China trade surplus in 2011: $200 billion.

How could China has a 170% debt? All the expenses all been checked by the audit and supervision, also open to the public.
What a huge government spending, who can hide? If officials hope to corruption, they will hide the revenue, not hide the expenditure.


Now we turn to India.
India government revenues 2011: $218.7 billion
India government expenses 2011: $311.2 billion
The fiscal deficit : $100 billion, 50% of government ....wow


India trade deficit in 2011 : 185 billion.[/B]

Economy of India - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Through the comparision, you may know why China has a AA rating , while India is only BBB-.

 

[shuntmaster]

China's Ponzi scheme economy.

China is no exception. The common wisdom is that China runs a very low debt-to-GDP ratio of around 30 per cent (this ratio was in the low 20s till 2007 but jumped sharply during the 2008 crisis), which gives it lots of firepower to keep reflating the economy and to keep recapitalising its banks. The reality is that this ratio is plain wrong. China’s growth model is based on the oldest rapid economic growth hormone available: debt.

China has debt at various levels and pockets. Let’s add to this central debt, the local government and provincial debt figures. This figure is around $1.9 trillion. Let’s further add the obligations of the Ministry of Railways. That’s $360 billion. And finally let’s also add 80 per cent of outstanding bank credit. This adds $6.3 trillion. We add bank loans to national debt because unlike most countries, China uses banks for nearly all of its directed, policy lending programmes. For example, the stimulus of 2008-09 was financed largely by banks. By pushing its lending via the banks’ balance sheets, China creates the impression of a country that has very low budget deficits and, of course, very low central debt. We take 80 per cent of bank debt into the national debt figures under the assumption that 20 per cent goes towards consumer and private sector credit.

Thanks for explaining this so clearly. I had read few years ago that the Chinese banking system is in a big mess. The day the banks start collapsing like goldman sachs in 2009, it is going to take the entire Chinese economy down along with it. The real estate boom, the ghost towns, surplus industrial capacities, mega infrastructure building etc. is all a part to keep the banks in operation and somehow keep the economy floating. No one knows the real value of the bad loans or non-performing assets (NPAs) of the the Chinese banks, but it is rumoured to be many times the banks operating capital. The whole banking system in China is very very opaque and no or very little audit is done. That is why foreign banks are afraid to operate in China.
Personally I hope China manages its banking sector and its economy better, since in a globalised world, we will all be affected in one way or another, based on what happens on any part of the world, especially in an economy the size of China. I really hope they succeed and keep up their growth story, which has been an inspiration to all.

 

[Archie]

Ignore the chincese troll

If they dont troll , then how will they earn their 50 cents

 

[shuntmaster]

simple logic.. higeher you go harder you fall.. i am waiting for chinas fall with a cold beer

Bro, thats not good. Don't wish for someone's ill fortune, just because you have some disagreement with them. There are poor people in China, like poor people in India, who will suffer the most because of economic problems. India and China are both developing countries and our common and real enemy is poverty, even though we have lots of issues between us.
Our economies are directly and indirectly interconnected. If Chinese economy collapses, it will have repercussions all over the world, including India and the effect will be in a negative way.

 

[Sonyuke_Songpaisan]

印度阿三笑死人。to tell the indian asans here, Chinese banks are the most profitable companies in china now.

 

[shuntmaster]

印度阿三笑死人。to tell the indian asans here, Chinese banks are the most profitable companies in china now.

What is Indian asans? Are you referring to Yoga? Then the correct word would be ''Asana"
About the profitability of the Chinese banks, can you support with some numbers with the sources. Also, you could give the statistics on the bad loans or Non-performing assets.

 

[northeast]

What is Indian asans? Are you referring to Yoga? Then the correct word would be ''Asana"
About the profitability of the Chinese banks, can you support with some numbers with the sources. Also, you could give the statistics on the bad loans or Non-performing assets.

nope，it means indian the third class people.

 

[Aramsogo]

LOL Indians, I hope the Chinese economy keeps 'collapsing' and India keeps 'shining' this way.

 

[shuntmaster]

nope，it means indian the third class people.

ooh.. san = 3.. shouldnt 3rd class people be = sanren or rensan?

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Intellectually dishonest to compare total debts.

No country quotes provincial/state/local debt, private debt, corporate debt, pensions or social security obligations as part of national debt. If you include those numbers, China might increase to 160% of GDP, but others start looking at 1000+% of GDP.

 

[northeast]

Intellectually dishonest to compare total debts.

No country quotes provincial/state/local debt, private debt, corporate debt, pensions or social security obligations as part of national debt. If you include those numbers, China might increase to 160% of GDP, but others start looking at 1000+% of GDP.

lol，they don't know it.that's why i said they are cows.

 

[Sonyuke_Songpaisan]

ooh.. san = 3.. shouldnt 3rd class people be = sanren or rensan?

Asan is a slang word of Shanghainese. 阿三的来历有几种说法：
　　其一，那时的人形容猴子即“阿三”，举凡洋人，在国人看来，皆如猴子般形貌举止，尤其以印度人之面貌黧黑更甚，而且民族“优越性”使然，觉得自家仍是高印度一头，故此蔑称印度人为“阿三”。
　　其二，据说因为印度人由于殖民地的关系，做公务员是要懂英语的，而他们因为懂英语的关系，却也喜欢在中国人面前摆谱，通常在说一些不流利中文时，总会不自觉地加一句“I SAY......”（我说...）由于 I say 的发音和“阿三”很接近，因此便有了“阿三”的称呼。
　　其三，过去印度人因为自己是不结盟运动（亚非拉好几十个国家组成的一个松散的联盟）的领袖，便狂妄的宣称美国是一极、前苏联是一极，而他们作为不结盟运动的领袖，是当之无愧的第三极。于是中国人便叫他们“阿三”以戏谑之。
　　其四，英国体系的公务人员（尤其是警察）长久以来都习惯被称呼为SIR，另外上海人一向习惯在单音节的单字前面添加一个“阿”字。所以上海人叫着叫着就把阿Sir叫成了阿三。 此说法最为靠谱。
　　其五，当今网友的说法。印度一直想做老大，但前面不是还有美国和俄罗斯吗？所以再怎么排最多也就是阿三了。故曰“阿三”。
　　其六：以前在上海租界的时候，租用的洋人被称为洋鬼子，租用的中国人叫二鬼子，（后来被称为伪军或二鬼子什么的，就是中国人，《亮剑》里面有这个称呼）。雇佣的印度人叫三鬼子。上海人习惯称呼前加上阿，比如阿宝，阿亮什么的，所以后来把三鬼子演变成了阿三，是有贬义的意思，和洋鬼子、日本鬼子是一个意思。

 

[northeast]

Asan is a slang word of Shanghainese. 阿三的来历有几种说法：
　　其一，那时的人形容猴子即“阿三”，举凡洋人，在国人看来，皆如猴子般形貌举止，尤其以印度人之面貌黧黑更甚，而且民族“优越性”使然，觉得自家仍是高印度一头，故此蔑称印度人为“阿三”。
　　其二，据说因为印度人由于殖民地的关系，做公务员是要懂英语的，而他们因为懂英语的关系，却也喜欢在中国人面前摆谱，通常在说一些不流利中文时，总会不自觉地加一句“I SAY......”（我说...）由于 I say 的发音和“阿三”很接近，因此便有了“阿三”的称呼。
　　其三，过去印度人因为自己是不结盟运动（亚非拉好几十个国家组成的一个松散的联盟）的领袖，便狂妄的宣称美国是一极、前苏联是一极，而他们作为不结盟运动的领袖，是当之无愧的第三极。于是中国人便叫他们“阿三”以戏谑之。
　　其四，英国体系的公务人员（尤其是警察）长久以来都习惯被称呼为SIR，另外上海人一向习惯在单音节的单字前面添加一个“阿”字。所以上海人叫着叫着就把阿Sir叫成了阿三。 此说法最为靠谱。
　　其五，当今网友的说法。印度一直想做老大，但前面不是还有美国和俄罗斯吗？所以再怎么排最多也就是阿三了。故曰“阿三”。
　　其六：以前在上海租界的时候，租用的洋人被称为洋鬼子，租用的中国人叫二鬼子，（后来被称为伪军或二鬼子什么的，就是中国人，《亮剑》里面有这个称呼）。雇佣的印度人叫三鬼子。上海人习惯称呼前加上阿，比如阿宝，阿亮什么的，所以后来把三鬼子演变成了阿三，是有贬义的意思，和洋鬼子、日本鬼子是一个意思。

lol，that's funny.

 

[Developereo]

From wiki, quoting sources.

China credit rating:
S&P: AA- Stable 2012-2-20
Fitch: A+ Stable 2011-11-21
Moody's: Aa3 Positive 2011-08-05
Dagong: AAA Stable 2010-07-11

 

[lem34]

Just like all wikepedia information.

Are you Indians seriously questioning China's prowess currently in the field of economics??