How Has Bangladesh Left Pakistan Behind in Per Capita Income?

[Indus Pakistan]

I do hope BD is ahead of Pakistan. For two reasons. It confirms that 1971 was good for BD. It means less illegal mifration to Pakistan. Possibly even reversing the BD ex-pats living in Karachi. So three cheers to BD taking the lead.

Ad the reason BD is doing better is that she has developed real industry - export of garments. The reason why there is no trouble in Chittagong and rest of BD is simple. All groups in BD are tied into the garment export industry and have a stake in it. That is why most of BD will not be critical of the West and secularism will get entrenched as the markets abroad that buy BD garments have leverage over BD.

There is no such foreign leverage or foreign influence inside Pakistan that can temper society. Most of Pakistan depends on foreign remittances. The money coming in creates demand. The so called industry inside Pakistan just services that hostage demand. It's a form of profiteering.

 

[Major Sam]

Need more details about exact numbers, like how much % (by total market cap value especially) were in cement etc...across the years going back to base year currently...and then these numbers would be especially important for industries that had say 0 presence before and have some X presence today.

This would effectively be some portion of what the actual re-basing effort by govts do I would imagine (though they would sample/analyse much more than just stock market). But doing just stock market alone would be great indicator I think because it is where the most hotly traded (and thus accesible and more readily deployed + quality) liquidity is done....and the raw data is also much more simple and readily available too.

These were top companies in 2005 with total KSE index of 8800. and now current index is around 42-45000. many of them are not even in top 25 currently.

25 companies selected are as follows in 2005:

1. Siemens Pakistan Engineering Company Limited; N
2. Arif Habib Securities Limited; 11th
3. Javed Omer Vohra & Company Limited; N
4. Rafhan Maize Products Company Limited; N
5. International Industries Limited; N
6. Al-Ghazi Tractors Limited; N
7. Fauji Fertilizer Company Limited; 1st
8. Unilever Pakistan Limited : N
9. Pakistan State Oil Company Limited; N
10. Shell Pakistan Limited; N
11. Clariant Pakistan Limited; N
12. Atlas Honda Limited; 23rd
13. Nestle Pakistan Limited; 3rd
14. Oil & Gas Development Company Limited; N
15. Colgate-Palmolive (Pakistan) Limited; 12th
16. First Equity Modaraba; N
17. Ferozsons Laboratories Limited; N
18. Pakistan Telecommunication Company Limited; N
19. National Refinery Limited; N
20. Engro Chemical Pakistan Limited; N
21. Century Paper & Board Mills Limited; N
22. Security Papers Limited; 14th
23. Sanofi-Aventis Pakistan Limited; N
24. Lakson Tobacco Company Limited; N
25. Pakistan Cables Limited. N

DSE was having 2000 index and currently its at 6000 with total market cap around 45B.

@Nilgiri here is the composition for today

 

[Nilgiri]

here is the composition for today

Thats a good start man. Thanks! This last chart is traded volume, very useful starting point. Do you have same for deployed base capital (i.e you add all of that up to get final market cap) by these sectors etc? The latter is also very important as it gives the actual "investment"/"value" deployed that may or may not be actively traded (but still very relevant on the ground of Pak economy).

Is there same for an average day going back in history 1 year at time etc? From that we can get the long term trends as they may appear in rebasing (or current predicted rebasing). Specific volume/capital ratio of each sector can then also be looked at for some interesting changes over time too.

From what I can see the big drive (in such rebasing estimate for GDP) will come from tech+comms, transport, engineering, power gen as far as rebasing goes as these sectors I would imagine have the largest "novelty" scope within them ..just going by the volumes....(others are more traditional industry or heavy industry etc...safe to say they were largely captured by 2006 base though their relative importance to each other may have changed somewhat).

Anyways I will check in here from time to time and see what I can contribute to this based on what we can gather data-wise....I haven't done a proper, detailed econometric analysis for quite some years now...and my area of expertise when I did is somewhat different...but it will be interesting to see how far we get.

@Thəorətic Muslim (do you have to be so difficult to tag heh)...you may be interested to follow

 

[Chak Bamu]

Great posts @Nilgiri

You really improve the quality of discussion in the Economics section. I hope you post more often. I encourage you to write an article about some facet of South Asian economies and post in the Economics section to start a thread. There is great dearth of original material here.

 

[ziaulislam]

i disagree with the security issues

Its because of "security issues" that US gave pakistan about 30 billion$ in the last 15 years, not to mention even greater sums from IMF which has actually helped the pakistan economy to grow

secondly, your predictions on pakistan appear to be so wildly optimistic that it puts a modi bakht gau mata rakshak in this country to shame

first its nearly 26 billion dollars
all the economic assistance is minimum and mots is cashed back via NGOs(most european, japan and usa would give aid to countries like pakistan and india anyway)

the military part which is around 20 billion dollars,
more than 100% was spent on military presence to secure the boarder by deploying over 90,000 troops

let say usa had not intervened in Afghanistan or pakistan had said no, we would have not needed to do so, thus even the ignoring all the other loses the pure financial benefit is also zero but instead in negative
instead 2-3 billion dollars loss is due to damage to road networks(i.e would have been come under transit fee)

my estimates from last year defence budget is that( 160 billion spent on FATA related operations) approx purely DIRECT financial cost(ignoring all costs related to WOT) is 30 billion dollars- 20billion aid= -10 billion dollars


the only reason for WOT is that its un audited free money that bribes the whole bureaucratic, media, political & religious parties(so that they supported mushi, than zardar than nawaz), army and political system

 

[Nike]

Interesting conversation and good quality posts from venerable @RiazHaq & also @Nilgiri

I view Pakistan's problem as a political one, whereby the decision-making is seriously compromised because of competing interests. What we see currently unfolding in Pakistan is the classic Civ-Mil tussle that has been the bane of Pakistan since '50s. After having worked in textile manufacturing for many years, I am currently working in Retail, at Head Office of one of the largest retail networks in Pakistan. I can not overstate how the political instability - mostly induced - plays havoc with economy. Consumer-driven economic activity is sentiment-based. Cynicism & pessimism negatively affects an economy, while optimism buoys it. Take a look around in Pakistan. Cynicism sells and many political players are doing a good job of encashing it. To me, that makes a big difference. Pakistanis have a phenomenal ability to face and out-last adversity. But that strength seems to be sapped by loud rhetoric that aims at preserving entrenched power structures.

Bangladeshi nation has found a way to protect its core economic interests from occasional instability. Garment industry provides incentives and proactively anticipates how a 'hortal' may affect their production and ability to meet export orders. Political parties too are mind-ful of not hurting export of textiles. I am quite sure that Chittagong does not have a MQM style extortionist party. The military too does not actively play politics. There is no Indian-sponsored instability in Bangladesh. There is general peace and stability and foreign buyers like to place orders in Bangladesh. With all these factors working in Bangladesh's favor, it is no accident that Bangladesh beats Pakistan in GDP growth, Exports, Human-Development Indicators, & perception.

Pakistan on the other hand is marred by obsession with security, weak governments (even when they come in with big majorities), civ-mil tussle, agencies that operate without any civilian over-sight, terrorism, perception of poor law & order, in addition to all other issues pointed out by other posters.

China, India, and Bangladesh have grown despite pervasive corruption. Pakistan could too. But then corruption is an excuse to beat civilian governments. The civilian faces driving the anti-corruption campaign are themselves compromised and look to the military for favors. The day civilians achieve ascendancy would be a good day for Pakistan. Security mind-set inevitably weakens the nation while strengthening the state. Pakistan has just about had enough of it by now. Pakistan needs to set its house in order, find ways to make peace with neighbors, & focus on internal development.

In some areas, i am used to think Pakistan, Indonesia and South Korea almost had same characteristics in their military and Civillian institution relationship. The countries used to have strong military institution having huge leverage in political arena, controlling the massa through military states policy and in fear of strong hostile neighbor (Indonesia is in the case of Communism bane from China and Vietnam , South Korea is in name of PRC and norks and Pakistan is in the name of India and Afghan). If Indonesia and South Korea can pass through democratization test without sacrificing their economic performance and longer term development goals and able to creating a Civilian led government in democracy realm what is the main issues in Pakistan to hinder such progress? Dont say because it is Islam majority country and heterogen society comprised of many race and tribes. Because Indonesia is such a country itself. I believe the answer will be very basic and can be met on your very daily life....

 

[Chak Bamu]

In some areas, i am used to think Pakistan, Indonesia and South Korea almost had same characteristics in their military and Civillian institution relationship. The countries used to have strong military institution having huge leverage in political arena, controlling the massa through military states policy and in fear of strong hostile neighbor (Indonesia is in the case of Communism bane from China and Vietnam , South Korea is in name of PRC and norks and Pakistan is in the name of India and Afghan). If Indonesia and South Korea can pass through democratization test without sacrificing their economic performance and longer term development goals and able to creating a Civilian led government in democracy realm what is the main issues in Pakistan to hinder such progress? Dont say because it is Islam majority country and heterogen society comprised of many race and tribes. Because Indonesia is such a country itself. I believe the answer will be very basic and can be met on your very daily life....

I suspect that it has to do with typical Pakistani mind-set. We are brought up on stories of famous Muslim generals and conquests. This molds the mind to think in terms of army and conquest. In today's age this is exactly the wrong kind of mind-set. It took me a couple of decades to shake off these ideas. It was not the soldiers and generals, but the societies that produced them, that mattered. The hero-worship inculcated at a young age shows up in our decisions later on. Pakistanis tend to support army as an institution above all others. But this seems to be changing because failures of army-centered policies are too obvious to ignore.

I believe that the current generation being brought up has a far broader outlook because it is more integrated with global consciousness.

Civilian supremacy is key to putting things in order and for Pakistan to become more normalized as a country. Obsession with security turns a country into something like North Korea.

 

[DarkPrince]

Let's compete with Indian's per capita. It's not fair competing Pakistan economically. Pakistanis are warrior people not baniyas

 

[defence_analyst]

Let's compete with Indian's per capita. It's not fair competing Pakistan economically. Pakistanis are warrior people not baniyas

You mean terrorists. Good joke.

 

[El Sidd]

Let's compete with Indian's per capita. It's not fair competing Pakistan economically. Pakistanis are warrior people not baniyas

Tum baaz nahi aoge

 

[My-Analogous]

Let's compete with Indian's per capita. It's not fair competing Pakistan economically. Pakistanis are warrior people not baniyas

So you are comparing with your own class. That good for you. Make more business and let worriers rules over you. Some day some worrier class will come and rule you

 

[indianfighter1999]

So you are comparing with your own class. That good for you. Make more business and let worriers rules over you. Some day some worrier class will come and rule you

so are u indirectly pointing to bangladesk the some day worrier class like worrier famed pakistanis will again rule over bd

 

[My-Analogous]

so are u indirectly pointing to bangladesk the some day worrier class like worrier famed pakistanis will again rule over bd

Not necessary, but history is full of these stories. Worrier class always superior over trader class.

 

[indianfighter1999]

Not necessary, but history is full of these stories. Worrier class always superior over trader class.

so worrier class u mention here is great worrier clan of pakistan? coz I am not sure there might be another worrier class worrier clan people in planet which want to take over trader class like bd people that us worrier class people

 

[My-Analogous]

so worrier class u mention here is great worrier clan of pakistan? coz I am not sure there might be another worrier class worrier clan people in planet which want to take over trader class like bd people that us worrier class people

Why you Indians always putting Pakistan in each and every post. I AM TALKING ABOUT CLASS here. Read history of past 5000 years to understand what i am saying and Pakistan was not there on that time