How China views Obama's trip to Myanmar

[JayAtl]

How China views Obama's trip to Myanmar - Yahoo! News

As President Obama heads to Myanmar, Cambodia, and Thailand on Saturday, China is keeping a wary eye on the latest US move in the sometimes bruising tussle between the two giants for influence in the region.

Beijing is nervous that Mr. Obama’s “pivot to Asia,” a drive to strengthen old US friendships and forge new ones, is a strategy designed to hem China in.

Myanmar (also called Burma) is Exhibit No. 1 in the case for such fears. A nascent civilian government has recently stepped out of neighboring China’s orbit and leaned toward the West with liberal political and economic reforms there.

But Myanmar, an impoverished and ramshackle country, despite its wealth of natural resources, could offer an opportunity for China and the US to work together, suggest analysts in both countries. (see map here).

“The US is trying to compete with China to make friends with Asian countries, but this does not have to be a zero-sum game,” argues Liu Feitao, an expert on US policy in Asia at the Chinese Institute for International Studies, a think tank linked to the Foreign Ministry in Beijing.

“Burma could be one area where we can get beyond the idea of strategic competition,” agrees Michael Green, head of the Asia desk at the National Security Council during the Bush administration. “US-China relations with third countries could be healthy.”

The Chinese government has not yet reached a final judgment on the US policy of rebalancing its security emphasis toward the Asia-Pacific region, Chinese scholars say, nor has it developed a strategy to deal with it.

“They tell us that rebalancing is not aimed at containing or encircling China and we would like to believe it,” says Dr. Liu.

But officials have expressed serious reservations. “The United States must … convince China … that there is no gap between its policy statements on China and its true intentions,” Deputy Foreign Minister Cui Tiankai wrote in an article earlier this year.

Beijing is especially worried by the way in which neighboring countries involved in maritime territorial disputes with their giant neighbor, such as Vietnam and the Philippines, have turned to Washington for support as China has turned up the heat on them.

“US influence in the region is rising, while China’s is decreasing,” says Du Jifeng, a Southeast Asia expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a government-run think tank. “We should not further stimulate conflicts with our neighbors.”

WEDGE ISSUE?

“There is tremendous demand and expectation of US leadership in the region,” US National Security Adviser Thomas Donilon said in a speech in Washington on Thursday. “The demand signals, I think, at this point today, are unprecedented.”

From Beijing, such comments sound as if Washington is seeking to drive a wedge between China and its neighbors. Policymakers here have not forgotten Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton’s remark in Cambodia two years ago, when she said: “You don’t want to get too dependent on one country,” responding to a question about Phnom Penh’s relations with China.

Strategists here say they are also concerned with the prominent military aspects of the pivot: Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta announced earlier this year that 60 percent of US naval vessels are to be deployed in the Pacific by 2020; the US Navy and Air Force recently unveiled a new “air-sea battle” concept clearly designed to counter growing Chinese naval power; the Pentagon’s Strategic Guidance document, issued last January, put China and Iran at the center of US security concerns, and 2,500 Marines are due to be stationed in Australia by 2016.

Obama’s four-day trip to Asia will offer a chance for him to stress new dimensions of his policy. The journey “marks the beginning of the next phase of our rebalancing effort,” Mr. Donilon says.
“Our rebalancing is defined by far more than our defense posture,” he adds. “It will continue to be defined by deeper economic and political engagement.”


Obama’s trip – his first venture overseas since his reelection – comes as China appears ready “to push the reset button with Southeast Asia and to come in discussing trade and growth … but also bringing their checkbook along with them,” in the words of Chris Johnson, until recently the CIA’s top China analyst, now with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

After a series of assertive moves in recent territorial disputes in the South China Sea, “I think China will try to tone down its territorial disputes with neighbors which might give the US more opportunities to get involved in Asian affairs,” predicts Mr. Du.

MYANMAR AS TESTING GROUND

Against this backdrop, Myanmar may prove to be a testing ground for the cooperation that both Beijing and Washington say they want in the Asia-Pacific region, offering a chance for both powers to help develop the country.

Myanmar first signaled its move away from China with a symbolic decision last year to put the Myitsone Dam project, a giant Chinese hydroelectric project on the Irawaddy River, on hold.

At an ideological level, “each time that an authoritarian country democratizes, that is a loss for China and a gain for the United States,” argues Scott Harold, a China analyst with the Rand Corporation, a nonprofit think tank in Washington.

But economic and political realities mean that “a lot will stay the same” in Myanmar’s relations with its giant neighbor to the north, however much the government improves its ties with the US, Dr. Harold adds.

“Its oil and gas will, by and large, go to China. And China’s role in building ports, roads, and pipelines will not change,” he argues. “For better or for worse, Myanmar will always be right next to a big, big market and a country that has substantial military and economic interests that any Myanmar leader will have to take seriously.”

‘LIKE ALL ASIAN COUNTRIES, IT JUST WANTS A BALANCE’

Myanmar “had to open up to the US in order to be accepted by the international community,” points out Liu. “But I don’t think it will build up its relations with Washington at China’s expense. Like all Asian countries, it just wants a balance.”

Mr. Green, the former National Security Council analyst, who visited Myanmar earlier this year, says he does not expect the country “to align with the US to contain or limit Chinese power.”
Instead, he predicts, “they will use us to strengthen and balance their economic development,” putting American investment to work alongside investment from countries such as Japan, South Korea, and India, whose companies are already competing with Chinese firms for contracts.

That sort of competition could unfold within the “productive and constructive relationship with China” that “our friends and partners in the region expect us to maintain,” as Donilon put it.
“The US and China are competing now for influence,” adds Green. “But none of the regional powers want to get pulled into a US-Sino confrontation and be forced to choose sides. I think they will make it very clear when one side or the other goes too far.”

 

[ahfatzia]

Myanmar military's next campaign: shoring up power

(Reuters) - Aung Thaw was a teenager when he joined Myanmar's armed forces, which seized power in 1962 and led a promising Asian nation into half a century of poverty, isolation and fear.

Now 59, he has a new mission as deputy minister of defense: explaining why the military intends to retain a dominant role in a fragile new era of democratic reform.

In a two-hour interview with Reuters, the first by a leader of the armed forces with the international media since Myanmar's historic reforms began last year, Aung Thaw depicted the military as both architect and guardian of his country's embryonic democracy.

That's why the military has no plans to give up its presence in parliament, he said, where its unelected delegates occupy a quarter of the seats. Nor will the military apologize for its violent suppressions of pro-democracy protests in 1988 and 2007 that led to crippling Western sanctions.

"The government is leading the democratization," said Aung Thaw. "The Defense Services are pro-actively participating in the process."

The military will also retain a leading role in Myanmar's economy through its holding companies, according to the firms, which are among the country's biggest commercial enterprises.

Aung Thaw's comments came ahead of Barack Obama's visit to Myanmar on November 19 - the first by a serving U.S. president to the country also known as Burma.

The generals' reluctance to loosen their grip on power and acknowledge past abuses raises fundamental questions for this strategic country at Asia's crossroads: Can Myanmar be reborn after decades of dictatorship without the military itself also undergoing profound change? And is the United States too quickly embracing the generals?

"When there is genocide in Darfur," said President Obama in his Nobel Peace Prize acceptance speech in 2009, "systematic rape in Congo, repression in Burma - there must be consequences." Three years later, the United States is rewarding Myanmar's once-reviled military by granting it observer status at next year's Cobra Gold war games in Thailand. The exercises form part of Washington's strategic "pivot" to Asia to counter the growing influence of China, traditional patron of Myanmar's former junta.

While in Myanmar, Obama is expected to meet both President Thein Sein, a former general, and opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, the Nobel Peace Prize laureate. Obama adviser Samantha Power wrote a post on the White House website last week signaling that Obama would use the trip to pressure Myanmar to do more about continuing ethnic violence and human-rights abuses against civilians.

"The government and the ethnic nationalities need to work together urgently to find a path to lasting peace that addresses minority rights, deals with differences through dialogue not violence, heals the wounds of the past, and carries reforms forward," she wrote.

THE REAL POWER

Aung Din, executive director of the U.S. Campaign for Burma, an advocacy group, also urged Obama to meet with "his real counterpart" - meaning Vice Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Myanmar's commander-in-chief.

Myanmar's emergence from authoritarianism has been compared to the Arab Spring, but the trigger wasn't street protests. The opening was stage-managed by retired generals such as Thein Sein, whose dramatic reforms cleared the way for an engagement with the West and a suspension in sanctions. A government now dominated by former generals has begun repairing a dysfunctional economy with foreign expertise and investment.

Since taking power in March 2011, Thein Sein's quasi-civilian government has relaxed censorship, allowed street protests and held a by-election that put Suu Kyi into parliament. In return, the West has suspended most sanctions, while Japan has promised up to $21 billion in aid and investment. Foreign investors are pouring into one of the world's last frontier markets.

The military, however, has remained practically a law unto itself, its power and privileges enshrined in a 2008 constitution drafted by the former junta. Fears persist that hardliners may emerge to stall or roll back the reforms.

The generals have long insisted the reforms were the culmination of their "roadmap to democracy" announced nearly a decade ago. Diplomats here cite other pressures, including fears of economic collapse and further popular unrest, growing unease over China's dominance, and a desire to shrug off Myanmar's pariah status in an increasingly connected Southeast Asia.

The military is showing some signs of change. Deadly sectarian violence in Rakhine State in October was a major test for government troops, who showed restraint in policing the unrest between ethnic Rakhine Buddhists and Rohingya Muslims.

Ethnic insurgencies rage elsewhere along Myanmar's borderlands, where battle-hardened soldiers have committed their worst abuses and, in northern Kachin State, commit them still, say human rights groups.

"EVERYBODY SUFFERED"

Myanmar's army is called the Tatmadaw, or "Royal Force," a phrase evoking the age of Burmese warrior kings. Its modern version was founded by General Aung San, the independence hero and father of Aung San Suu Kyi, who led his troops against both British and Japanese occupiers.

Respect for the Tatmadaw began to fade in 1962, when the late dictator General Ne Win seized power and ushered in the catastrophic "Burmese Way to Socialism." A nationwide pro-democracy uprising that began in 1988 was so brutally repressed it scarred the nation's psyche. Thousands were killed or injured when troops opened fire on unarmed protesters. Hundreds more were jailed, including Suu Kyi, who spent 15 of the next 21 years under house arrest.

The savagery provoked global outrage and led the United States and Europe to impose sanctions. Some military officers remain on visa blacklists in Western countries.

In the interview, deputy defense minister Aung Thaw described 1988 as a "very, very sad memory for us". Military intervention was necessary to halt nationwide anarchy that threatened to "forever" change Myanmar's borders, he said. "In 1988, the reality is the whole country was in a chaotic situation. Everybody suffered, including our armed forces."

The military was "the only strong institution left in that chaotic situation to maintain law and order," he said. "At the time, we had no other option. We tried to restore law and order to protect the civilian population."

And the population was grateful, he insists. "If you were in this country at that defining moment, you would hear (this) sound", he said, emitting an audible sigh of relief. "Because everybody felt insecure, even in their own homes."

Kyaw Min Yu recalls it differently. Better known as Ko ("Brother") Jimmy, he was protesting with other students in March 1988 by Inya Lake in the main city of Yangon when security forces attacked. Scores of students were shot dead or drowned. Later, he said, he saw a soldier stab a schoolgirl with a bayonet.

"I'll never understand why they were so cruel to us students, who were about the same age as their sons and daughters," said Ko Jimmy, who spent 20 years as a political prisoner and is today a leading political activist.

Shaken by the 1988 protests in the cities, and embroiled in conflict with ethnic insurgent groups in border regions, the military expanded. By 1995, its ranks had almost doubled to about 350,000, according to Myanmar military scholar Andrew Selth of the Griffith Asia Institute in Brisbane, Australia. When Buddhist monks led pro-democracy protests in 2007, the military was able to snuff them out easily.

The military's refusal to acknowledge the suffering it caused is part of a deep-rooted arrogance that undermines hopes for reconciliation, said Ko Jimmy. This is especially true in ethnic areas, where attacks by government soldiers have left generations of bad blood.

The military is overwhelmingly Burman, as Myanmar's ethnic majority is called, which compounds the sense among minorities that it is an invader, not a liberator.

The Thailand Burma Border Consortium, the main aid agency caring for refugees along the Thai-Myanmar frontier, estimates that since 1996 more than 3,700 villages have been destroyed or abandoned in the eastern Myanmar regions of the Karen ethnic group. More than 1 million people have been displaced and tens of thousands killed. The military has been accused by defectors and international rights groups of ordering soldiers to rape women and leave them pregnant to breed out resistance.

"It would take a miracle for the military to reform," said Myra Dahgaypaw, a 36-year-old ethnic Karen. Soldiers killed her parents when she was a young child, she said, and later killed her elder brother, his wife and their daughter. Soldiers also shot dead her uncle after forcing him to watch them rape his wife, she said.

Now working for an advocacy group in Washington, D.C., Dahgaypaw urged the United States to slow its rapprochement with Myanmar and its military. "I feel like they are in a rush and forget about what's really important."

Ten ethnic insurgent groups have this year signed preliminary cease-fires. But about 75,000 people have been displaced in 16 months of fighting in Kachin State in northern Myanmar, many of them fleeing forced labor, killings, rape and torture by the Myanmar military, the New York-based Human Rights Watch reported in June.

Aung Thaw said government troops were exercising "maximum restraint" in Kachin State, despite attacks from the rebel Kachin Independence Army. "It is our duty to protect the civilian population in that area," he said.

CONSTITUTIONAL SHIELD

The military faces no institutions powerful enough to compel it to account for its past history. The 2008 constitution, drafted by the former junta, gives soldiers immunity from civilian prosecution and indemnifies former junta members. It also gives the military autonomy over its own affairs and sweeping powers in civilian life.

The constitution reserves a quarter of the seats in Myanmar's upper and lower houses for officers, as well as three important cabinet posts - the ministries of defense, home affairs and border affairs - and one of Myanmar's two vice-president positions.

Serving or former officers also dominate key civilian institutions, including a national security council that can assume power in an ill-defined state of emergency. Myanmar's commander-in-chief is not a popularly elected president or prime minister. The current one, Min Aung Hlaing, was handpicked by former dictator Than Shwe and outranks the Defense Minister.

"For anyone in the military, even today, you don't challenge someone of a higher rank," said an officer who spoke on condition of anonymity. "So how can the Defense Minister ever say no to the Commander-in-Chief? He wouldn't dare."

This helps explain why the Defense Ministry, which in theory subjects the military to civilian control, is half-deserted. The commander-in-chief sits in the War Office, a vast complex of offices, mansions and bunkers in the newly built capital of Naypyitaw where, said Aung Thaw, journalists are forbidden to go for national security reasons.

Aung Thaw nonetheless contended the military is "under civilian control." He noted that the commander-in-chief must be proposed and approved by a civilian body: the National Defense and Security Council, a presidential advisory group resembling the White House's National Security Council. But the NDSC is only nominally civilian. Five of its 11 members are serving military officers; another five are ex-officers, including its chairman, President Thein Sein.

While parliament can reduce or increase the defense budget, it cannot audit it, and has no control over the military's vast off-budget financial holdings.

Amending the constitution to remove the military's reserve of seats - a major goal for the Suu Kyi-led opposition - requires more than three-quarters support of parliament, which would have to include at least some military delegates.

It seems an almost impossible task. The delegates, mostly mid-ranking officers, tend to vote as a bloc on issues affecting the armed forces, suggesting they are following orders from superiors, the opposition says.

Special Report: Myanmar military's next campaign: shoring up power | Reuters

 

[JayAtl]

I love this stuff , the inner circle of foreign policy thinkers and strategies countries deploy. Great article to understand all the key players goals and realities on the ground. Hope you guys enjoyed the read to.

 

[Zabaniyah]

No doubt, big ball game going on there if you know what I mean...

 

[JayAtl]

Myanmar military's next campaign: shoring up power

do you think anyone is going to read what you have posted in that format you have chosen to copy /paste? come on don't be lazy. clean it up dude.

 

[JayAtl]

No doubt, big ball game going on there if you know what I mean...

the ultimate winner and smart one is Burma. They chose the path to democratize themselves and open itself up to not only 2 of the largest markets ( India/ China) but also largest investors being the US. plus democracies tend to be more stable having a ' relaxed outlook ' within their population .

 

[INDIC]

Myanmar very well know their strategic and economic worth.

 

[Zabaniyah]

the ultimate winner and smart one is Burma. They chose the path to democratize themselves and open itself up to not only 2 of the largest markets ( India/ China) but also largest investors being the US. plus democracies tend to be more stable having a ' relaxed outlook ' within their population .

Actually, it's not just about being smart or democratic.

See, the thing is that the Chinese have been trying to dominate the Burmese for generations. They simply want to get off that. China has no doubt been trying to make Myanmar as some sort of client state.

This is something they do not want.

I know since I have spoken with many Burmese back in college. Not a single one of them had a favorable view of China.

 

[JayAtl]

Actually, it's not just about being smart or democratic.

See, the thing is that the Chinese have been trying to dominate the Burmese for generations. They simply want to get off that. China has no doubt been trying to make Myanmar as some sort of client state.

This is something they do not want.

I know since I have spoken with many Burmese back in college. Not a single one of them had a favorable view of China.

I'm not speaking in regards to china but rather in terms of being internationally accepted they had to go democratic.

Myanmar “had to open up to the US in order to be accepted by the international community,”

 

[Zabaniyah]

I'm not speaking in regards to china but rather in terms of being internationally accepted they had to go democratic.

Being a democracy is equal to being "internationally accepted"?

Not necessarily.

 

[JayAtl]

Being a democracy is equal to being "internationally accepted"?

Not necessarily.

if you wanted to get the US blessing , conduit to international acceptance- then they had to move away from a dictatorship. especially with aung san suu issue. Think about the country being discussed not broad brush the point being made.

 

[Zabaniyah]

if you wanted to get the US blessing , conduit to international acceptance- then they had to move away from a dictatorship. especially with aung san suu issue. Think about the country being discussed not broad brush the point being made.

And the Middle Eastern dictatorships don't have US blessings?

More specifically, it is military dictatorships that the US and the West opposes.

 

[ahfatzia]

Myanmar president says democracy won't change China friendship


(Reuters) - Myanmar's transition to democracy will not change the country's traditional friendship with China, Myanmar President Thein Sein was cited as telling Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping, amid concerns in China its neighbour could become a U.S. ally.

Chinese officials and media have expressed concern Washington's renewed interest in slowly democratizing Myanmar, formerly known as Burma, could be part of U.S. designs to dilute China's influence there and encircle China with pro-U.S. states.

Fears about China's influence in Myanmar have been bolstered not only by Washington's engagement with the country but also the U.S. military's strategic "pivot" back to Asia.

But during a meeting on the sidelines of a trade fair in southern China, Thein Sein said Beijing should not worry.

"Myanmar is at present in a transitional phase, but Myanmar pays great attention to developing relations with China, and its policy of seeing China has a true friend has not changed," China's foreign ministry cited Thein Sein as telling Xi.

"China has for a long time provided a large amount of sincere support and help, and stood at Myanmar's side at the most difficult of times. Myanmar's people will never forget this," Thein Sein added, in the statement released late Friday.

It is Thein Sein's second trip to China since he took office in March 2011. He goes to the United States after completing this trip.

With sanctions long blocking Western investments, China has emerged as Myanmar's biggest ally, investing in infrastructure, hydropower dams and twin oil-and-gas pipelines to help feed southern China's growing energy needs.

The United States, along with the European Union, Japan and other Western countries, have moved to ease sanctions on Myanmar following the new army-backed civilian government's efforts at pushing ahead with democratic reforms.

China has long worried about its ties with Myanmar, with a history of resentment of China among the Burmese population and fierce public opposition to a $3.6 billion Chinese-built dam at Myitsone that prompted Thein Sein to shelve the project last year, a move that stunned Beijing.

Xi did not directly address that issue, saying only that "both sides should work hard to guarantee the smooth progress of certain important cooperative projects".

A more crucial scheme - twin oil and gas pipelines being built at huge expense across Myanmar and into China - appears safe despite unhappiness among some residents who live along its route and conflict with ethnic minority rebels close to the Chinese border.

Myanmar president says democracy won't change China friendship | Reuters


Slow down guys and be careful. The NGOs will follow Obama to your country and initiate their form of democracy that might not suit for your country. Already there are many protests exist and anymore will unstablize the country.

 

[JayAtl]

And the Middle Eastern dictatorships don't have US blessings?

More specifically, it is military dictatorships that the US and the West opposes.

did you hear about a thing called arab spring?

 

[Zabaniyah]

did you hear about a thing called arab spring?

And how was America relevant to instigating those? Not all Arab nations experienced it.

Let's not get into conspiracy theories now.