How China Beat India in Race for Success------A 1997 Article That Predicted Today

[Dungeness]

The race is not even half done yet, it's like trying to decide the winner of a marathon at the 5 mile mark.

Personally, I hope both countries do well. Indians and Chinese together make up 40% of humanity and if both countries can protect the life, liberty and pursuit of happiness of its citizens, if both countries protects its environment, if both countries educate its population to be able to give back to the world, if both countries can provide healthcare then it would be an amazing good thing for everyone and a new age for mankind on this planet.

Thanks for input. I understand your points and I total agree with you. The question here is not what we should do, rather how each country to achieve the goals that are common among humanity. I especially like to learn from our Indian friends, what Indian government has done or will do to promote social equity among different segments of the society, besides handouts and doles, to lift hundreds of millions less unfortunate population out of poverty, so 18 years from now, when we read this article again, we can all celebrate the great achievement that benefit 40% of humanity.

Here, please do not use the official Indian Government poverty guideline as a defense. You know better than I how much Rs. 32 per person per day means.

As the article clear says, the brutal measures of China has a lot to do with it. And Deng Xiaping's meticulous cultivation of manufacturing contracts regardless of whatever human costs.

India simply did not do that and hence is settling for a slower pace of economic development. Nothing wrong with that.

Let's not forget - China has undertaken significant risks too, so they will have to continue managing the economy and population tight

Yes, your point is well taken. This is my question to our Indian friends mentioned in my previous posts, how India will implement the social reforms that deemed necessary to elevate the society as a whole, without going through the brutal revolution that China went through. To be honest, since the current Indian administration came to power, I have seen it increasingly turned to nationalist and religion to rally the whole nation. Is this the direction Indian is heading?

 

[Tiger Genie]

Thanks for input. I understand your points and I total agree with you. The question here is not what we should do, rather how each country to achieve the goals that are common among humanity. I especially like to learn from our Indian friends, what Indian government has done or will do to promote social equity among different segments of the society, besides handouts and doles, to lift hundreds of millions less unfortunate population out of poverty, so 18 years from now, when we read this article again, we can all celebrate the great achievement that benefit 40% of humanity.

Here, please do not use the official Indian Government poverty guideline as a defense. You know better than I how much Rs. 32 per person per day means.




Yes, your point is well taken. This is my question to our Indian friends mentioned in my previous posts, how India will implement the social reforms that deemed necessary to elevate the society as a whole, without going through the brutal revolution that China went through. To be honest, since the current Indian administration came to power, I have seen it increasingly turned to nationalist and religion to rally the whole nation. Is this the direction Indian is heading?

Will it surprise you if I tell you that MOST (I mean >99%) Indians are nationalists regardless of religion? Whether you believe it or not, that is the case. When people wonder about why or how India manages to remain a nation in spite of diversity in language, religion, ethnicity, economic status and literacy - THAT is the answer.

As to religion rallying the nation: I do see the voices of the Hindu majority have gotten louder - but that I see a temporary over-compensation to the suppression of Hindu views (or the perception of such suppression) by the preceding decade of corruption by Congress. For example the Congress party in order to keep its 'majority' in the parliament had to buy off the support of many regional parties, AND had to ensure they got most of the minority vote bank; some of the regional parties were strongly anti-hindu but not really in terms of religious ideolgy but in terms of share in jobs, school quotas etc.

What future holds? no way to predict accurately. BUT I see a lot more made of religious strife of India, by cyber warriors outside India than in India (I have been there 4 times this year, and spent collectlively 3months so far, so it is not an inadequate slice). PDF Defence.Pk ofcourse is a islamic majority and that too Pakistani member pool that actually thinks they are serving their nation by fanning hindu-muslim strife in India; so if you let this influence your impressions you will be very mistaken.

 

[Sky lord]

Thanks for input. I understand your points and I total agree with you. The question here is not what we should do, rather how each country to achieve the goals that are common among humanity. I especially like to learn from our Indian friends, what Indian government has done or will do to promote social equity among different segments of the society, besides handouts and doles, to lift hundreds of millions less unfortunate population out of poverty, so 18 years from now, when we read this article again, we can all celebrate the great achievement that benefit 40% of humanity.

Here, please do not use the official Indian Government poverty guideline as a defense. You know better than I how much Rs. 32 per person per day means.

Hi, am I to understand that in your opinion there has been no change in social equity in the last 70 years? That is not true. By any and all measures there has been much forward movement. Perhaps it has not been as fast as it should have been but definitely India has been going in the right direction. Every year something like 1 % give or take is being lifted out of poverty, there is much change in gender equity and upward mobility of castes and classes.

There are a couple of differences that you need to keep in mind. In a democracy, the leaders will deliver what the people expect or they get voted out. I really cannot in one post go into all the intricacies of this, nor am I the right person to do so, but there is a lot of great literature out there. You have to remember that at independence india had something like 18% literacy! it was a land of perennial famine, every industry had been moved to Britain, there were no skills left in the country. Given that we chose the democratic path, people initially voted on the basis of "identity politics", ie they voted for people like themselves in the hope of patronage. As education spread and we had some experience in democracy people started voting for development. The push is coming from below, perhaps in China the leaders are pulling from above? The start is slow because it takes longer for people to have the strength to push but once they can it is much more in tune with the real needs of the country and it is a lot less traumatic. It is unlikely for instance that we experience the sudden demographic drop that China is about to experience or the extreme atrocities of the years of the great leap forward.

Ultimately a nation will find a balance based on its native culture. There are some things that all successful cultures do - they respect knowledge, they respect family and provide a stable environment for their children, they respect hard work, they learn to get along with others.

I don't mean to stereotype but I think that both Chinese and Indians greatly value education, we are willing to do anything for our children, we are hard working, we don't cause trouble in the societies we live in and by and large both nations are d@mn good at business. Ultimately we will find our balance.

 

[Lurch Adams]

This whole thread is yet another Chinese wet dream. Stock market in terminal decline, growth crunch, housing and banking bubbles about to burst. Give it a year and then we will talk.

Super power China, yeah right.

 

[Sky lord]

This whole thread is yet another Chinese wet dream. Stock market in terminal decline, growth crunch, housing and banking bubbles about to burst. Give it a year and then we will talk.

Super power China, yeah right.

Bubbles come and go, no country is permanently on the upswing or permanently declining. At the end of the day any country will rise or fall to the level of the competence of its population. Countries make mistakes, both China and India have made mistakes but personally I have faith that ultimately both civilizations will balance out to something like we were historically ie basically the center of gravity of the world lies somewhere between India and. China .

Map showing shift in economic center of gravity

 

[Lurch Adams]

Bubbles come and go, no country is permanently on the upswing or permanently declining. At the end of the day any country will rise or fall to the level of the competence of its population. Countries make mistakes, both China and India have made mistakes but personally I have faith that ultimately both civilizations will balance out to something like we were historically ie basically the center of gravity of the world lies somewhere between India and. China .

Don't I wish you are right? The other day, when Xi the inscrutable was addressing the media in the US, he made a mention of China's non-belief in zero-sum games. You know I felt sad at that moment. How nice it would be if the
Chinese government actually ever meant what they said. How nice it would be to be living in a peaceful region of mutual cooperation. Instead, all we get is the Chinese government sponsoring one proxy after another – Pakistan, the Maoists, North-Eastern insurgents. All in the name of realpolitik. What’s the point of seeing the world with this prism of endless machinations?

 

[Sky lord]

Don't I wish you are right? The other day, when Xi the inscrutable was addressing the media in the US, he made a mention of China's non-belief in zero-sum games. You know I felt sad at that moment. How nice it would be if the
Chinese government actually ever meant what they said. How nice it would be to be living in a peaceful region of mutual cooperation. Instead, all we get is the Chinese government sponsoring one proxy after another – Pakistan, the Maoists, North-Eastern insurgents. All in the name of realpolitik. What’s the point of seeing the world with this prism of endless machinations?

Well, that is a problem when you are dealing with a non-democratic government, I suspect interesting times lie ahead.

Also, India needs to learn the art of real politik too...no point crying about it. Strength respects strength and all that sh1t.

 

[Dungeness]

Will it surprise you if I tell you that MOST (I mean >99%) Indians are nationalists regardless of religion? Whether you believe it or not, that is the case. When people wonder about why or how India manages to remain a nation in spite of diversity in language, religion, ethnicity, economic status and literacy - THAT is the answer.

As to religion rallying the nation: I do see the voices of the Hindu majority have gotten louder - but that I see a temporary over-compensation to the suppression of Hindu views (or the perception of such suppression) by the preceding decade of corruption by Congress. For example the Congress party in order to keep its 'majority' in the parliament had to buy off the support of many regional parties, AND had to ensure they got most of the minority vote bank; some of the regional parties were strongly anti-hindu but not really in terms of religious ideolgy but in terms of share in jobs, school quotas etc.

What future holds? no way to predict accurately. BUT I see a lot more made of religious strife of India, by cyber warriors outside India than in India (I have been there 4 times this year, and spent collectlively 3months so far, so it is not an inadequate slice). PDF Defence.Pk ofcourse is a islamic majority and that too Pakistani member pool that actually thinks they are serving their nation by fanning hindu-muslim strife in India; so if you let this influence your impressions you will be very mistaken.

No, I am not surprised that there are more nationalistic Indians than Chinese. China now is an open society where people can say anything they want on the social media, pro-China, anti-China, religious, non-religious, whatever. I know it doesn't fit Indian's stereotype about China that since it is not a democratic (in west standard) country, therefore, Chinese do not have the freedom of speech. People actually are much more tolerant to all kinds of thoughts and religions. So your right, there are more patriotic Indians than Chinese.

No only the louder voice from Hindu Majority, some laws based on Hindu religion have actually been imposed on minorities as well. I feel India is currently drifting away from its long-standing constitutional secularism, which in a way is defying the international norm for a modern country. My question is, is India government trying to lead India in this direction, or just a short term backlash due to the previous suppression on Hindu religion?

We may not able to predict the future accurately, but we can find the trend a nation is changing, by studying and analyzing what we know carefully. Just like the author of this article did, 18 years ago.

This whole thread is yet another Chinese wet dream. Stock market in terminal decline, growth crunch, housing and banking bubbles about to burst. Give it a year and then we will talk.

Super power China, yeah right.

Hi, am I to understand that in your opinion there has been no change in social equity in the last 70 years? That is not true. By any and all measures there has been much forward movement. Perhaps it has not been as fast as it should have been but definitely India has been going in the right direction. Every year something like 1 % give or take is being lifted out of poverty, there is much change in gender equity and upward mobility of castes and classes.

There are a couple of differences that you need to keep in mind. In a democracy, the leaders will deliver what the people expect or they get voted out. I really cannot in one post go into all the intricacies of this, nor am I the right person to do so, but there is a lot of great literature out there. You have to remember that at independence India had something like 18% literacy! it was a land of perennial famine, every industry had been moved to Britain, there were no skills left in the country. Given that we chose the democratic path, people initially voted on the basis of "identity politics", ie they voted for people like themselves in the hope of patronage. As education spread and we had some experience in democracy people started voting for development. The push is coming from below, perhaps in China the leaders are pulling from above? The start is slow because it takes longer for people to have the strength to push but once they can it is much more in tune with the real needs of the country and it is a lot less traumatic. It is unlikely for instance that we experience the sudden demographic drop that China is about to experience or the extreme atrocities of the years of the great leap forward.

Ultimately a nation will find a balance based on its native culture. There are some things that all successful cultures do - they respect knowledge, they respect family and provide a stable environment for their children, they respect hard work, they learn to get along with others.

I don't mean to stereotype but I think that both Chinese and Indians greatly value education, we are willing to do anything for our children, we are hard working, we don't cause trouble in the societies we live in and by and large both nations are d@mn good at business. Ultimately we will find our balance.

I did not mean there was no change in the past 70 years in India, I know India has changed a lot, and there are many indexes to prove it. But basic social structure to a large degree has been intact, especially in rural area where majority of Indians live. By reiterating Hindu religion in the national level, India Government did not give out an impression it will emphases on the civil liberty and social equity though.

I am sure ultimately India will find a balance and to reclaim its past glory. Just curious, how much social changes you will see 18 years from now if there is no huge scale grassroots civil movement.

 

[Luca1]

But the truth been told China's economic and military boom started in way before 1980. China inducted first nuclear submarine in 1970s. It's been a good 50 years for China who benefited heavily by American, Australian South Korean Japanese and western FDI. But today in 2015 China yet to achieve Super Power status.

Where as India set its first step in 1990s. But till now FDI IA not fully allowed into India. India faced sanctions in technology and military technology from the west. Yet in just 20 years India reached Mars and Moon with flying colors. Today India is world's leading economy in terms of GDP growth but with its internal restrains of democracy, rampant corruption 10 years by Congress party India has managed to become 4 th largest Naval power and one among the top 5 global super power ranking. Now India will tap it's full potential by opening up for FDI in defense and other industries to become new hop and the land of opertunity. So in my mind I have no doubt we won't fail like China. In the next 10-30 years India will make sure we will achieve our goal for Super Power and military power house.

So I think India has fairly maintained its Credibility against 30 years advanced country like China. Now the difference is just some 15 years. That's the huge achievement.

India desire to be a superpower above all. It's about the status and you are not afraid to admit it. Does most Indians want India to become a superpower? Sine you are banned, I would like to hear from other Indians.

 

[opruh]

This whole thread is yet another Chinese wet dream. Stock market in terminal decline, growth crunch, housing and banking bubbles about to burst. Give it a year and then we will talk.

Super power China, yeah right.

Yeah right, coming from an indian living in a country that is only known for poverty and hunger.

 

[Sky lord]

I did not mean there was no change in the past 70 years in India, I know India has changed a lot, and there are many indexes to prove it. But basic social structure to a large degree has been intact, especially in rural area where majority of Indians live. By reiterating Hindu religion in the national level, India Government did not give out an impression it will emphases on the civil liberty and social equity though.

I am sure ultimately India will find a balance and to reclaim its past glory. Just curious, how much social changes you will see 18 years from now if there is no huge scale grassroots civil movement.

Social structure including in rural areas has changed vastly in the last 70 years especially in Southern. Western and northern parts of India. The problems are mainly concentrated in East and central areas and even there is much change. Television for instance has brought in huge changes in the way traditional roles of women are seen., there have been several studies to show this. Not sure what you mean " reiterating Hindu culture " India is a majority Hindu nation but we do not for instance have any rules like China that disallows beards or fasting in Ramadan etc. the constitution guarantees freedom of religion and there is no pressure to worship or not worship. You can freely be a Muslim, Christian, Hindu or atheist, it is of no concern to the government.
It seems either you have ulterior motives or some pre conceived notions? India is not a perfect country by any means, but we are a decent people and by and large the country trying to do the decent thing.

Anyway I see the great chinese intellects Luca and Oprah have joined. Please feel free to continue your discussion with them. Goodnight.

 

[TaiShang]

You are not alone. Many Chinese people today snub India as a lesser country not worthy comparing with, some may even think two countries are not in the same order of magnitude. But how many of us could be so confident 18 years ago and envision the huge difference today between these two giants? And more importantly, what made China as it is today that India doesn't have?

In fact, many take it as an insult, no matter how such a comparison might provide some interesting historical postulations.

 

[Dungeness]

In fact, many take it as an insult, no matter how such a comparison might provide some interesting historical postulations.

I know. If this was a new article, I wouldn't have posted here. It would be just another piece of "vs" flame-bait. A prediction from 18 years ago maybe just old enough to gauge today's reality. Many Chinese people take what we have today for granted, not knowing we were not much better than others 20 years ago. This article from the past may just get some of them to think and appreciate what we are enjoying today even more.

 

[Lurch Adams]

Yeah right, coming from an indian living in a country that is only known for poverty and hunger.

I said give it a year. I am sure you have a decent memory. So do I. We will compare notes then. For now, remember the following words: stock market decline, housing bubble, NPA mountain, GDP contraction.

Your lost decade has begun.

 

[Dungeness]

This whole thread is yet another Chinese wet dream. Stock market in terminal decline, growth crunch, housing and banking bubbles about to burst. Give it a year and then we will talk.

Super power China, yeah right.

I am pretty sure that you did not bother to read the article, let alone going through all posts here. The discussion is not about any country or anyone's "wet dream". It is about something that beyond your comprehension.

By the way, "Super Power" is never in China's interest, nor it ever claims to be one. And don't bet your fortune on China's downfall.

Regards

Social structure including in rural areas has changed vastly in the last 70 years especially in Southern. Western and northern parts of India. The problems are mainly concentrated in East and central areas and even there is much change. Television for instance has brought in huge changes in the way traditional roles of women are seen., there have been several studies to show this. Not sure what you mean " reiterating Hindu culture " India is a majority Hindu nation but we do not for instance have any rules like China that disallows beards or fasting in Ramadan etc. the constitution guarantees freedom of religion and there is no pressure to worship or not worship. You can freely be a Muslim, Christian, Hindu or atheist, it is of no concern to the government.
It seems either you have ulterior motives or some pre conceived notions? India is not a perfect country by any means, but we are a decent people and by and large the country trying to do the decent thing.

Anyway I see the great chinese intellects Luca and Oprah have joined. Please feel free to continue your discussion with them. Goodnight.

Thanks for your contribution. It was a nice discussion, and I learnt a lot. Hope I can see you here again. Best wishes for both countries!