jhungary
MILITARY PROFESSIONAL
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That's not correct, China already has a blue water navy, since they have the SSNs, SSBNs, a long range surface fleet and even amphibious capabilities. All they lack so far was a dedicated aircraft carrier, but that alone doesn't limit them to their costlines.
India on the other hand had an aircraft carrier, but only limited supporting vessels and no SSNs, SSBNs at all. That's why IN was limited to operations very close to India itself and why they are just on the verge of beeing a blue water navy.
Basically, there are no definite definition on the term "Blue Water Navy" so i cannot say your concept is wrong, infact there are people who share the same concept with your, i just believe another concept, until there are people better than you and me set up a definite definition of "Blue water navy" we cannot determine which is and which isn't.
My definition of "Blue water navy" have 3 requirments.
1.) Have Global Interest beyond one naval border
2.) Have capable ship to project power
3.) Can conduct sustained naval engagment alone outside their own sphere of influence.
This is most naval doctorine believe what makes a Blue Water Navy, if this is the requirment, then currently only US, France and the UK are qualified to be called a Blue Water Navy
While China have SSBN and SSN, they do not operate alone and Submarine will always require support vessel,to feed the sailor, get the perishable resupply, the fact is, if you were to conduct a world wide power projection, you need to be able to resupply somehow without the need to retreat from your AO. The most commoon example is, if China were to project power in the West Coast of United States or Even West Coast of Canada. THat CANNOT BE DONE becuase there are no supply base for China anywhere between West Pacific to West coast of United States, your ship can run only with fuel but your sailor cannot run if there are no food and water, those thing need to replenish quite often, and you can only do it on a port call. Otherwise you will need a very very large resupply force and resupply all the way from China to their forward deploy fleet. If you cannot project your naval power world wide for a sustained period, how would you consider yourselve as an Ocean Going navy if you have to depend on the supply on Neutral port?
The differnet with France and UK (I don't think i need to mention the US) is different than the case in China, as both France have both territories all over the world (UK have territories in the carribean, south atlantic, the pacific and indian ocean, that cover 4 of the 5 ocean) Where France have territories in South America, Pacific and Africa and which cover again 4 out of 5 oceans.) While China, beside SCS and ECS, there are none other oversea territories, and that cover only 1 out of 5 oceans.
Hence i do not count China as Blue water navy. As they cannot remotely achieve requirment 1 and 3.
That's why you (the US) are so eager to form new alliances, to tackle them in their own backyard and don't let them come close to yours. The more forces you can bring up to the region the better, the more you can split PLAN the better, the more you can hype the threat from China the bette.
The thing is, unless there is a total war and in which every country will fight against the Chinese and share the burden of responsibility evenly, there are not chances to limit the Air Power of China in their own backyard. And even though most of the Aisan neighour have relationship with the US, that does not mean they will be fighting on the US side when war broke out.
US 7th fleet alone cannot face the whole might of the Chinese PLAN and PLAAF.
But not the commander of the 7th fleet decides this, the President of America will and from a political point of view, you can't afford to let China take Taiwan without a fight, because it once shows China that you fear them, which let them take even more than Taiwan. But on the other side countries in the region that currently supports you, will see it as well and if they have to fear that the US won't protect them, they will simply change sides and ally with China without a fight, because that is in their national interest.
Either the US stands against China, or you give them the freedom to be the main superpower, there is no middle way. The problem is, you they are catching up fast and you need new and stronger partners than you had against the Soviets. You need India and it's forces to open a second front, but India is not that easy to catch as the Europeans were in the past.
the things is, you are looking on this issue with a objective point of view, you have things you need to do and assume you are going to do it. But i am looking at the issue with a tactical point of view where i will choose how to finish my objective.
Of course, you can ride down to the bottom of the China Sea and duel with out with the Chinese, yes, we would fight to the finish by why? The problem is, you know you have a more capable force than China if you were to use them all, 11 (actual 10 as there are 1 Carrier Group always on Refit) Carrier Group can easily take care of the Airwar with China, but the problem is, you need time to gather those group and before that time has come, you only have 1.
And when you only have one, you will most probably use it to defend against your strong point cause there are no point if you have the rest of your carrier group arrive but the strong point is already gone. And anyone will tell you, in case a war broke out in the China Sea region, the strong point will be Japan cause they are at the border of the Battle area with the closest US base, however, if Russia enter war with the Chinese side, the strongpoint will become Australia.
We can, and we will let the other country fall if they have to, but we will not let the strong point felt, strong point represent a poinr where the Enemy have the longest route of resupply and yours have the shortest. Meaning it will be hack of a fight with the enemy but the easiest fight to you. YOu will defend the strong point until your help arrive then push the enemy back, bit by bit. Same thing we have been doing in the last 100 years, in WW2, we set our strong point and last line of defence in Australia, Pusan in Korea, then almost all war after that we were the agressor........
Again, you can duel it out and gamble on your decision to fight it all out, but if you have a way to ensure victory, why not use it?