Highest ever export in goods in the month of October.

[Patriot forever]

After looking at the breakdown of import increase, it seems that majority of increase is not due to higher Capital imports or Investment Driven Imports. However government was trying to sell the churan that most of this increase in imports are due to investment-driven imports which is not true.

I agree with you there is not much can be done to decrease these imports but it can still lead to increase in Current Account Deficit to $20 billion or even higher for year 2021-22.

Raw Materials and intermediates power our industries including textiles ( cotton / systhetic fibers chemicals etc).

Capital goods includes machinery. ( $1.62b is a huge amount in 4 months). Has been going on from the later part of FY 2021. Remember June machinery imports last FY.
Will keep going for the rest of the year.

All of these imports increase productivity.

No CAD will be nowhere near what that amount.

It will be in the range of $10-$13b.
There are many reasons for it. After the winters commodity prices especially energy prices will come down, and this downward trend will trickle down into other commodities e.g. DAP, palm oil, soya bean oil, other industrial raw materials.

Our exports will be better in the latter half of year, especially textiles from Jan onwards.

With the expected cotton(especially) , sugarcane and wheat crop projections this year our food import bill will be less.

( Just this commodity price inflation if settles will bring our CAD to bare minimum).
We are generating more than $5b in goods exports and remittances, our inherent strength in economy is significantly increased.

 

[CrazyZ]

You forgot
20 years of conflict
15 years of political instability
I'm surprised we've gained this much in terms 9f growth and exports

You guys are looking in the rear view mirror. Time to look at the future. Pakistan has not participated in the global boom over the last 25 years like other Asian countries have. This means today, Pakistan can provide the global economy with a pool of millions of low cost laborers in both manufacturing and services industries.....to help control inflation in developed nations. This is what East Asia did for the USA in the 80's.

 

[Norwegian]

You guys are looking in the rear view mirror. Time to look at the future. Pakistan has not participated in the global boom over the last 25 years like other Asian countries have. This means today, Pakistan can provide the global economy with a pool of millions of low cost laborers in both manufacturing and services industries.....to help control inflation in developed nations. This is what East Asia did for the USA in the 80's.

Well said. While Pakistan was busy alternating between Pmln / PPP mafias, the world was improving their economies. That's why PAKISTAN is left behind in exports. We are 30 years late thanks to Pmln / PPP slaves

 

[Flight of falcon]

With someone finally paying attention to our agriculture industry we are slowly starting to see positive results .
Cotton production fell to the lowest levels in the last few years because Nawaj thought cotton is for loosers and sugarcane is more beneficial to his sugar mills .
finally we are focusing on the right type of crops and the results are visible already. This will significantly reduce our cotton import bill.

Pakistan to surpass cotton harvest target | The Express Tribune

Minister reveals cotton supply has surged 94% to 5.2 million bales

www.google.ca

 

[Norwegian]

Nawaj thought cotton is for loosers and sugarcane is more beneficial to his sugar mills .

Democracy is the best revenge

 

[CrazyZ]

Well said. While Pakistan was busy alternating between Pmln / PPP mafias, the world was improving their economies. That's why PAKISTAN is left behind in exports. We are 30 years late thanks to Pmln / PPP slaves View attachment 790239View attachment 790240View attachment 790241

Past Pakistani regimes have either followed 1950's British style leftish economics (PPP), attempted more recent Anglo-American style "services based" economics with import-consumption based growth (which is unsustainable if you don't have a reserve currency) or simply kept the status quo. PTI has been the first to look toward East Asia as the economic role model. Military elites and SBP have also prioritized economic growth. Combination will lead to a continued boom, IMO

 

[Norwegian]

PTI has been the first to look toward East Asia as the economic role model.

Hence the everyday melodrama on media: PTI destroyed economy

 

[CrazyZ]

Hence the everyday melodrama on media: PTI destroyed economy
View attachment 790249View attachment 790250

Pakistani economy is going through a transition in which those that prospered in previous failed economic models are getting burned plus inflation is hurting the poorest. For Pakistan has whole this is a needed shift but there are losers......and they will make noise

 

[ziaulislam]

O

I know what you are saying bro, but we are not an advanced economy like UK. Comparing our per capita consumption to UK is a joke.

Even China has way less consumption than America per capita.

Electricity consumption per capita will not match UK in next 30 years.

What we needed was to plan on our projected demand and not on take or pay contracts.

Install 2-3 MW in the short term and start for long term cheaper generation to cater for future demand.

Or build dams via AB WB and other banks..
This will be cheaper but problem is those projects require TRANSPARENCY and putting some GOVT funds too..which I wouldnt want to do since how will i build my motorways

Hence a part from tarbela IV not a single project was completed(100% WB funded infact money left over) and mangla rehab(100% USAID)

 

[ghazi52]

Beef export is gaining momentum.

 

[ziaulislam]

Beef export is gaining momentum.

Textile for the first time showing consistent double digits growth with projection to be higher then total exports of pakistan i.e 24b$ by 2023(18b$ this yr, 6b$ first 4 months)

Double digit growth in services

Double digit growth in meat

Double digit growth in IT


But this is useless we need to decrease imports and destroy growth and shouldnt increase our exports and remittences..(patwari reverse logic, few years ago it was the opposite)

Key is whether CAD can be kept within 2% of GDP(6-8b$). And whether we can keep high reserves (atleast 6 months of imports ..i.e 30-35b$ so as to avoid panic/inability to roll over loans.

We currently at 20b so work is needed on reserves front


Its as simple as that
Hopefully my leader will fix this in 2024. He has never disapointed me in last 40 years. Well 30 years since i wasnt born in 1985 when he took over

 

[Ahmet Pasha]

Has the EU levied a tax on Pakistan? Ending special status all because of TLP stupidity?

Asking cuz Gen Amjad Shoaib was saying something like this.