Highest ever export in goods in the month of October.

[Ghessan]

I do not believe this part of the report too much. If investment-driven imports increased by 64% then it should lead to multiple times increase in economic activity. They better show GDP growth of greater than 7% for year 2021-22 to justify increase of 64%. And this increase in investment-driven imports should translate in to greater than 50% growth in exports in coming months.

Someone posted another report (Fools_nightmare) the Shaukat Tarin did not believe the bureaucrats back in August when they tried to sell him churan that increase in imports are due to investment-driven imports .

indeed true,
but current investment driven imports include a major part in textile sector (spinning and weaving units) which is around 500bn. for example i am quoting; textile machinery import has an erection period of new mills and/or extension in existing mills takes around a year beginning from civil work, then it runs on trial bases for a few months with immediate limited staff.
later on hiring of labor and staff and the factory goes into full production. this is one example which will consume 3 million labor in the coming years with this new investment.

According to this report, not enough.

"...the country has an installed capacity of around 37GW and peak demand of only 25GW, although this is growing at a rate of about 5% a year. However the grid is able to handle only 22GW of power, resulting in chronic blackouts and load shedding, particularly in the summer when demand is highest...."​

China completes work on $1.7bn project to transform Pakistan's dysfunctional grid - Global Construction Review

A $1.7bn electricity transmission line on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which was begun in December 2018, was inaugurated in a ceremony held in Islamabad and Beijing at the end…

www.globalconstructionreview.com

exactly, i don't understand when those contracts were signed under CPEC or else for the power houses, why there was no preparation and projects for the uplift of distribution system to take the load of this electricity production. we only hear about one major Matiari-Lahore transmission line to take some load.

 

[Patriot forever]

I appreciate the effort to provide explanations, but please allow me illustrate the issue with a small question: The recovery head shows a "massive improvement" and stands at 97.3% recovery rate. Does this figure include delinquent government and military accounts?

This is the figure at a macro level broken down into overall recoveries against overall billed amount under each disco. E.g. K.E, Lesco, Pesco, Fesco etc.
This data is directly from Nepra.

Any government or military account arrears will show up in the relevant disco and bring down its recovery ratio.

 

[VCheng]

This is the figure at a macro level broken down into overall recoveries against overall billed amount under each disco. E.g. K.E, Lesco, Pesco, Fesco etc.
This data is directly from Nepra.

Any government or military account arrears will show up in the relevant disco and bring down its recovery ratio.

So are those delinquent accounts included or not in this claimed 97% recovery ratio?

 

[Crimson Blue]

indeed true,
but current investment driven imports include a major part in textile sector (spinning and weaving units) which is around 500bn. for example i am quoting; textile machinery import has an erection period of new mills and/or extension in existing mills takes around a year beginning from civil work, then it runs on trial bases for a few months with immediate limited staff.

According to APTMA, they were planning to import $5 billion worth of machinery for textile units during 2021. It was a celebrated news in the beginning of year 2021.

However in past 4 months (July-Oct) the imports have increased by $9 billion (total of ~$24 billion) as compared to last year. Increase of $9 billion in only four months, let that sink in for a minute.

$8-$9 billion is the cost of Diamer-Bhasha dam over eight years. Pakistan cold not find these funds over past 20 years to start construction of the dam.

$6 billion is cost of ML-1 railway line over 7 years.

IMF bailout package was $6 billion over 3 years.

Total development cost of South Korea's fifth generation fighter jet is $8 billion over 10 years time period.

The import bill for next four months better be whole lot lower than $24 billion for them to brag about any of their financial achievements.

 

[Norwegian]

How much can the distribution grid handle?

Present grid cannot handle even 25000 Megawatt

 

[Patriot forever]

So are those delinquent accounts included or not in this claimed 97% recovery ratio?

Short answer Sir.

Yes they are.

 

[VCheng]

Short answer Sir.

Yes they are.

Thank you. Then yes, things are indeed getting better.

 

[nahtanbob]

We were just short of 2 - 5 MW in generation. The transmission bottle necks were the root cause as it was not able to handle optimum output.

assume you meant 2-5 GW short of generation @Patriot forever

 

[Patriot forever]

assume you meant 2-5 GW short of generation @Patriot forever

2-5k MW increase every 2 yrs. That's what we needed.

 

[Patriot forever]

According to APTMA, they were planning to import $5 billion worth of machinery for textile units during 2021. It was a celebrated news in the beginning of year 2021.

However in past 4 months (July-Oct) the imports have increased by $9 billion (total of ~$24 billion) as compared to last year. Increase of $9 billion in only four months, let that sink in for a minute.

$8-$9 billion is the cost of Diamer-Bhasha dam over eight years. Pakistan cold not find these funds over past 20 years to start construction of the dam.

$6 billion is cost of ML-1 railway line over 7 years.

IMF bailout package was $6 billion over 3 years.

Total development cost of South Korea's fifth generation fighter jet is $8 billion over 10 years time period.

The import bill for next four months better be whole lot lower than $24 billion for them to brag about any of their financial achievements.

This is the breakdown of that $9.8b increase, over the 4 month period.

Nothing one can do about it. (Capital goods includes machinery imports).

There is almost a 100% increase in energy imports bill ( not volumes).

 

[nahtanbob]

2-5k MW increase every 2 yrs. That's what we needed.

I missed the k after the 5

 

[Zibago]

Good Job by the govt. on this front.

The public wants subsidies on imports

 

[Crimson Blue]

This is the breakdown of that $9.8b increase, over the 4 month period.

Nothing one can do about it. (Capital goods includes machinery imports).

After looking at the breakdown of import increase, it seems that majority of increase is not due to higher Capital imports or Investment Driven Imports. However government was trying to sell the churan that most of this increase in imports are due to investment-driven imports which is not true.

I agree with you there is not much can be done to decrease these imports but it can still lead to increase in Current Account Deficit to $20 billion or even higher for year 2021-22.

 

[CrazyZ]

Target should be $50 billion in exports while keeping imports around $30 billion in the next few years. Pakistan can play a role to in fighting global inflation.....with millions of untapped laborers and a weak currency Pakistani exporters can actual help developed nations control inflation.

 

[Flight of falcon]

After looking at the breakdown of import increase, it seems that majority of increase is not due to higher Capital imports or Investment Driven Imports. However government was trying to sell the churan that most of this increase in imports are due to investment-driven imports which is not true.

I agree with you there is not much can be done to decrease these imports but it can still lead to increase in Current Account Deficit to $20 billion or even higher for year 2021-22.

Enlighten me with your thoughts on choona and not capita expenses …..

So buying vaccines is choona ?
Buying food is choona ?
Buying machinery is choona ?

O wise man tell me what should we do to increase our exports if we don’t buy raw material .

By the way Pakistan’s exports crossed or came very close to $12 billion in four months.
SBP will update exact numbers in a week.

the target of $40 B is now achievable .