Hatf IX Nasr Missile Tested by Pakistan

[Dillinger]

The question is Can they penetrate Armour of Indian MBTs to give a lethal dose of Neutron Radiation to kill the Tank crew?
@Dillinger @Dazzler

@RAMPAGE you are assuming that an ERW is the only warhead that can be used.

The Russians have given due consideration to CBN protection to their armored vehicles since NATO doctrine specifically revolved around going nuke crazy once the superior Soviet armor divs punched through (now that is a war I would have liked to see, ah but one needs to read Red Storm Rising) so yes the armor may prove resilient on the other hand if I am right about the guidance on the Nasr then damage can be inflicted with sub-kiloton warheads. It would be interesting (in a macabre way) to make a dash for certain targets in the Sialkot and Chamb region and see whether Pakistan will actually escalate with the Nasr despite knowing the heavy price that any such strike (by itself and sans any retaliation on our part) at said specific places would evince out of the Pakistani populace.

 

[The Deterrent]

The question is Can they penetrate Armour of Indian MBTs to give a lethal dose of Neutron Radiation to kill the Tank crew?
@Dillinger @Dazzler

That is very less likely. For a dozen or two tanks the radiation might be lethal but for others (if they farther apart), tactical nuclear weapons won't be very successful.

I think that you guys are considering only one scenario i.e. targeting of IA Armoured Columns by Nasr.
-It can be used as a mere show of force on the battlefield, to draw the attention of international community in order to facilitate ceasefire.
-It can also be used as a last resort weapon to destroy a force which has occupied a certain territory, in a situation when all other strategic assets have been compromised.
-Only when used in larger numbers, it can be used to irradiate large areas of the battlefield to make sure that unprotected personnel (which constitute a very large part of the IA) cannot fight any longer.

 

[Capt.Popeye]

That is very less likely. For a dozen or two tanks the radiation might be lethal but for others (if they farther apart), tactical nuclear weapons won't be very successful.

I think that you guys are considering only one scenario i.e. targeting of IA Armoured Columns by Nasr.
-It can be used as a mere show of force on the battlefield, to draw the attention of international community in order to facilitate ceasefire.
-It can also be used as a last resort weapon to destroy a force which has occupied a certain territory, in a situation when all other strategic assets have been compromised.
-Only when used in larger numbers, it can be used to irradiate large areas of the battlefield to make sure that unprotected personnel (which constitute a very large part of the IA) cannot fight any longer.

That is a fairly accurate analysis @AhaseebA.
However I have an issue with the underlined part of what you have written. All the Strike Corps of the IA facing Pakistan have been geared up for NBC warfare conditions for a pretty long time (i.e. > 5yrs). In recent times, even the Holding Corps have been equipped for it. Just recall the reports of the Command & Corps level Military Exercises over more than the last 3 years. All of them have been exercised in NBC conditions. I'd suggest that you revisit all the reports thereof.

Even the Mechanised Infantry Regts. and the the acquisition of the ICVs in 1979 were precisely to raise a force for NBC warfare. Now that force is fully come of age with established doctrines and SOPs which are routinely exercised and which have now become de riguer for them.
Actually I need to tell you that the first move in this direction was made way back in 1969 when some Infantry Regts. re-equipped with TOPAZ, SKOT and BTR-60 APCs. While the APCs were still considered to be just "battle-taxis" for the troops, they were the first IA vehs that could operate in NBC conditions. In 1972, I saw troops exercising with these features at the AC Center and School for the first time; and it was a revelation for me. But it was a novel feature for everyone including the Army then. Then the whole process crystallised with the formation of the Mech. Inf. Regt. by Gen. Sundarjee in 1979. Do not forget that the Soviet influence on tactics was mainly predicated on fighting in NBC conditions across Europe. According to me; the BMPs were acquired mainly for their NBC abilities than providing Armored protection to their occupants. The Mech. Inf. Regts. are the Indian Army's youngest Regts.; created solely to fight in a NBC war.

Do not make the mistake of overlooking these facts.

 

[Sikilmis Eksisozluk]

Neutron bombs are overly complicated.The fissile material used has very low half life and decays into Helium which is Neutron absorbent and reduced efficiency of the weapon..
The Warhead is expensive to make and expensive to maintain. It has to be disassembled every year and decayed Fissile material replaced with new...

For permanently irradiating the terrain Cobalt bomb is used,which is a different fish.

 

[The Deterrent]

That is a fairly accurate analysis @AhaseebA.
However I have an issue with the underlined part of what you have written. All the Strike Corps of the IA facing Pakistan have been geared up for NBC warfare conditions for a pretty long time (i.e. > 5yrs). In recent times, even the Holding Corps have been equipped for it. Just recall the reports of the Command & Corps level Military Exercises over more than the last 3 years. All of them have been exercised in NBC conditions. I'd suggest that you revisit all the reports thereof.

Even the Mechanised Infantry Regts. and the the acquisition of the ICVs in 1979 were precisely to raise a force for NBC warfare. Now that force is fully come of age with established doctrines and SOPs which are routinely exercised and which have now become de riguer for them.
Actually I need to tell you that the first move in this direction was made way back in 1969 when some Infantry Regts. re-equipped with TOPAZ, SKOT and BTR-60 APCs. While the APCs were still considered to be just "battle-taxis" for the troops, they were the first IA vehs that could operate in NBC conditions. In 1972, I saw troops exercising with these features at the AC Center and School for the first time; and it was a revelation for me. But it was a novel feature for everyone including the Army then. Then the whole process crystallised with the formation of the Mech. Inf. Regt. by Gen. Sundarjee in 1979. Do not forget that the Soviet influence on tactics was mainly predicated on fighting in NBC conditions across Europe. According to me; the BMPs were acquired mainly for their NBC abilities than providing Armored protection to their occupants. The Mech. Inf. Regts. are the Indian Army's youngest Regts.; created solely to fight in a NBC war.

Do not make the mistake of overlooking these facts.

Exercises are usually conducted by a relatively smaller group of troops. Are you sure that majority (say 75%) of the IA troops (infantry, not armoured or mechanized) are equipped with NBC protection gear and are capable of waging a conflict in extreme conditions?

 

[Capt.Popeye]

Exercises are usually conducted by a relatively smaller group of troops. Are you sure that majority (say 75%) of the IA troops (infantry, not armoured or mechanized) are equipped with NBC protection gear and are capable of waging a conflict in extreme conditions?

IA Exercises in the Western Sector since "Brasstacks" have been Corps level atleast once a year. In the last three years they have been Corps+ level. Even Brasstacks involved 50,000 troops though that was more to do with mobilisation and less to do with NBC warfare conditions. Also Western Command and South Western Command of the IA exercise separately; since as I mentioned even the Holding Corps are now involved. All this is in response to the much touted "TacNukes" that are now being brandished. Both of these Commands are heavily Mechanised now. Conventional Infantry are mainly with Southern and Eastern Commands, while Mountain Troop Divisions are with Northern and Eastern Commands. Gen. Sundarjee started the process and changed the Infantry mind-set of the Indian Army (for ever IMO). Check out the ORBAT of the Indian Army now and the picture will get clearer

 

[SQ8]

IA Exercises in the Western Sector since "Brasstacks" have been Corps level atleast once a year. In the last three years they have been Corps+ level. Even Brasstacks involved 50,000 troops though that was more to do with mobilisation and less to do with NBC warfare conditions. Also Western Command and South Western Command of the IA exercise separately; since as I mentioned even the Holding Corps are now involved. All this is in response to the much touted "TacNukes" that are now being brandished. Both of these Commands are heavily Mechanised now. Conventional Infantry are mainly with Southern and Eastern Commands, while Mountain Troop Divisions are with Northern and Eastern Commands. Gen. Sundarjee started the process and changed the Infantry mind-set of the Indian Army (for ever IMO). Check out the ORBAT of the Indian Army now and the picture will get clearer

And the most important thing to bear in mind is that the battlefield that is the Indo-pak border is possibly some of the most tank-friendly terrain in the region. The BMP-2's which form the core of the Indian Mechanized force were designed for NBC warfare that was a given in Europe. Basically, here is a vehicle that was designed for a war in Europe in which is was expected that NATO would eventually resort to tac nukes(whether that protection has been passed onto the Sarath-in terms of the specialist onboard equipment apart from design protection is not known to me) . That being said, the effectiveness of a nuke to at the very least stall and deter offensives along with causing disruption in Command and Control flow is well speculated. Hence, regardless of NBC preparation and war tactics the very usage of a Tac nuke will cause severe disruption to an advance and perhaps lead to consternation on other actions that might have occurred(such as the deployment of a counter nuke, all out nuclear exchange etc)

 

[indiatester]

That being said, the effectiveness of a nuke to at the very least stall and deter offensives along with causing disruption in Command and Control flow is well speculated. Hence, regardless of NBC preparation and war tactics the very usage of a Tac nuke will cause severe disruption to an advance and perhaps lead to consternation on other actions that might have occurred(such as the deployment of a counter nuke, all out nuclear exchange etc)

Wouldn't the effect of tactical nukes been simulated already? There must already have run through scenarios to avoid being nuked, responding to a nuke both as a battle group and as a country.

Are those details too much of a secret to discuss in public?

 

[Capt.Popeye]

And the most important thing to bear in mind is that the battlefield that is the Indo-pak border is possibly some of the most tank-friendly terrain in the region. The BMP-2's which form the core of the Indian Mechanized force were designed for NBC warfare that was a given in Europe. Basically, here is a vehicle that was designed for a war in Europe in which is was expected that NATO would eventually resort to tac nukes(whether that protection has been passed onto the Sarath-in terms of the specialist onboard equipment apart from design protection is not known to me) . That being said, the effectiveness of a nuke to at the very least stall and deter offensives along with causing disruption in Command and Control flow is well speculated. Hence, regardless of NBC preparation and war tactics the very usage of a Tac nuke will cause severe disruption to an advance and perhaps lead to consternation on other actions that might have occurred(such as the deployment of a counter nuke, all out nuclear exchange etc)

You are fairly accurate there. The BMP-1 and BMP-2 were designed with that NBC scenario in mind as were their predecessors of the BTR family. As I said earlier; we were quite astounded to see the NBC 'lock-down' features on the wheeled APCs at the AC Center and School in 1972. IMO, even the IA was pretty much amazed at them then (and maybe even wondered what use they were !); since Nuclear Warfare in the Region was unimaginable! The Sarath (the Indian analogue of the BMP-2) is identical to the BMP, since its the BMP.......Only when it gets re-engined with an Indian Engine (probably from Cummins India) will it become any different.

Now about the use of TacNukes; as you say their role(s) are as you envisage. Their primary role in our Sub-Continental context at least; is to dissuade.
After that--- to disrupt.
Of course; contemporary thinking on that is mixed. There are enough studies done on the subject which have analysed the effects of (sub-kiloton) TacNukes on massed Mech./Armd. Formations.Esp. WRT to spacing in deployment of 'well locked-down forces'. (n.b. @AhaseebA)
And most Conventional (and Contemporary) Wisdom indicates that the perceived benefits of TacNukes are dubious. At best they could be considered to be weapons of "scorched earth" philosophy and finally; as WLR (Weapons of Last Resort) or Suicidal/Hara-Kiri intentions. They simply raise the stakes in "Nuclear Poker" to uncontrollable limits. Do consider: that firing off a (or some) TacNukes simply invites the possibility of Strategic Nukes in retaliation---without emasculating the Enemy's Nuke Capabilities completely (or atleast to any reasonable extent).
And if this is coupled with the lack of any viable "Second Strike Capability"; what would you call it? I call it absurdly Stupid!

The Strategic Estt. in India (like most other advanced Military Forces) lays little store in the efficiency and efficacy of TacNukes.

After that; to think that TacNukes can defeat the Enemy is "highly imaginative", to put it mildly and charitably.

 

[hunter_hunted]

We could have tested on Mullah Radio Hideout .

 

[SQ8]

They simply raise the stakes in "Nuclear Poker" to uncontrollable limits. Do consider: that firing off a (or some) TacNukes simply invites the possibility of Strategic Nukes in retaliation---without emasculating the Enemy's Nuke Capabilities completely (or atleast to any reasonable extent).
And if this is coupled with the lack of any viable "Second Strike Capability"; what would you call it? I call it absurdly Stupid!

The Strategic Estt. in India (like most other advanced Military Forces) lays little store in the efficiency and efficacy of TacNukes.

After that; to think that TacNukes can defeat the Enemy is "highly imaginative", to put it mildly and charitably.

It is that particular gamble that Pakistan counts on. Even with BMD's the chances of a few nukes getting through to the more important centres of Indian population is quite high. Oddly enough you wonder why suicide bombing is popular here; when the whole psyche of the defence plans rests on a final suicide plan to wage nuclear holocaust. A simple statement of I am going down but Ill take your arms and legs off before I do. Lets put it this way; the Pakistani population is expendable, troops are expendable and land is expendable so long as the Kamikaze idea of dealing the final blow is achieved.
The issue of second strike capability may not be as dire as perceived in public, and nuclear assets are afforded much better protection from being destroyed(or stolen) as is perceived in the Media. One has to understand the gaping black hole that is Pakistan's strategic plans division in terms of funding to realize how much effort(and stakes) have been put into the program.

As a useful weapon the Tac Nuke has little value..but serves well IMO as a Russian Roulette. Basically leaving the Indian leadership considering the costs of war and whether recovery from such a conflict would even be possible.

 

[SQ8]

Wouldn't the effect of tactical nukes been simulated already? There must already have run through scenarios to avoid being nuked, responding to a nuke both as a battle group and as a country.

Are those details too much of a secret to discuss in public?

This is a good read
http://www.princeton.edu/sgs/faculty-staff/zia-mian/Limited-Military-Utility-of-Pakistans.pdf

 

[Capt.Popeye]

It is that particular gamble that Pakistan counts on. Even with BMD's the chances of a few nukes getting through to the more important centres of Indian population is quite high. Oddly enough you wonder why suicide bombing is popular here; when the whole psyche of the defence plans rests on a final suicide plan to wage nuclear holocaust. A simple statement of I am going down but Ill take your arms and legs off before I do. Lets put it this way; the Pakistani population is expendable, troops are expendable and land is expendable so long as the Kamikaze idea of dealing the final blow is achieved.
The issue of second strike capability may not be as dire as perceived in public, and nuclear assets are afforded much better protection from being destroyed(or stolen) as is perceived in the Media. One has to understand the gaping black hole that is Pakistan's strategic plans division in terms of funding to realize how much effort(and stakes) have been put into the program.

As a useful weapon the Tac Nuke has little value..but serves well IMO as a Russian Roulette. Basically leaving the Indian leadership considering the costs of war and whether recovery from such a conflict would even be possible.

@Oscar; your points make sense (as they usually do, )
What desperation could cause a country to use nukes?
In the scenario that is being discussed, that could happen if Pakistan (all or most of it) is going to be invaded and occupied! However it will make no sense at all for India to even consider doing such a thing (assuming that it is doable).

I'm afraid that hoping that TacNukes will even prevent any conflict/war is ..........what should I say.........Strategically Delinquent......... may be that should be polite enough?

Kargil was another illustration of Strategic Delinquency; while this idea takes it many notches upward of that. One very important (if not critical) requirement in Strategic Thinking is the need and ability to retain control of developing situations to the greatest possible extent and for the longest possible time. This conceptual use of TacNukes militates against that very basic tenet. One of the reasons that Strategic Thinking has now nearly completely junked TacNukes.

However secure the Command Control of Nuclear weapons may be; the risks of failure of that system increase majorly (even exponentially) WRT TacNukes as compared to StratNukes. And I do not even have some 'wild bunch of Jihadis' in mind when I say that.

Or is it that TacNukes help to fulfil some other agenda? To fuel a sense of paranoia to continually increasing levels. And whose payola is something else? Which does not even have anything to do with a Battle-Front!

 

[farhan_9909]

They should have a export variant with 100km range and SImilar TEL having either 5-6 missile launchers.

 

[SQ8]

I'm afraid that hoping that TacNukes will even prevent any conflict/war is ..........what should I say.........Strategically Delinquent......... may be that should be polite enough?

Or is it that TacNukes help to fulfil some other agenda? To fuel a sense of paranoia to continually increasing levels. And whose payola is something else? Which does not even have anything to do with a Battle-Front!

History is testament that when war really has to happen it does..after all they have happened over assassinated arch dukes. That being said, nations do weigh in the cost of war and whether what they set out to achieve will be worth the cost. If the possibility of tac nukes and their usage ends up with the Indian objectives in a case of Sonay se ziada garhai mehngi(results not worth the effort) then perhaps they might be preventable enough.

Again, that is the policy on which Pakistan counts on for deterrence. Its armed forces count on the calculations of Indian leaders in terms of the losses they are prepared to take and to ensure future survival. Essentially the idea being that of "the edge of total chaos". Knowing that Indian leadership is smart enough to try and force rapid resolution and minimizing losses which rests on a finely tuned battle plan.. the idea of tac nukes is that of the wrench in the gears. After all, while the Indian thrust may be well prepared for a NBC scenario.. the article above illustrates that damage and slowdown will be inevitable; moreover, the use of the nuke WILL invite a response from India.. if that response is total.. then suddenly all the IBGs and well oiled plans go to naught because then its all out nuclear holocaust. In essence, it actually baits the Indian plan from being too effective in its execution. It is mathematically not possible even with Russian level BMDs to stop the number of nuclear weapons Pakistan actually has(or for that matter India). Hence, the losses for India are severe as well in a total nuclear exchange..which was triggered all by the single tactical nuke that(while not being that effective) that was launched to prevent an attack. Basically, the tactical nuke scenario here cannot be entirely compared to the scenario in western Europe but rather a catch-22 situation or perhaps the situation in Dr Strangelove.

The sense of Paranoia for Pakistani population does not really need a tac nuke since our population is generally dumb enough not to understand its implications(if that is what you implied) and as such is much less paranoid over the Indian threat as is imagined across the border or portrayed here; essentially India is seen as somewhat the scheming Baniya who uses cunning against us but in a bloody fight we might just prevail.As such, India is a constant threat but at the same time the balance of this rides on the oddest oscillations from "Ghazwa-e-Hind" to "All is good once Kashmir is solved".So the population is not the target for any PR generated by this weapon.

Where it might fuel a certain paranoia is to the world community that the prospect of nuclear war over Kashmir is very real and its implications(for the world) are quite dire. Hence, Unless that problem is resolved by the UN or others forcing India to the table.. this region will remain a nuclear powderkeg.