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DUBAI: Political analysts within and outside the country are confused over the decision of PTI chief Imran Khan to go for what he calls the “final blow” to the Nawaz Sharif government on August 14 because there is apparently no legal or constitutional way to do so, except through extra-constitutional means.
And if Khan is gathering one million angry people before parliament just to announce that he may be quitting the big House or dissolving his own desperately-needed political and administrative base in Peshawar, it still does not achieve his objective of ousting Nawaz.
Likewise, if he wants to sit before the Presidency and parliament until Nawaz quits, that also may not happen, if the Sharif brothers do not panic and follow the cool like cucumber Asif Zardari, who endured Tahir Qadri’s long march and sit-in for many icy cold days while sitting in his Bilawal Fort in Karachi.
Nawaz also has a similar hideout in Raiwind and he has re-established contact with Mr Zardari for advice.So what is up Khan’s sleeve as in recent TV interviews his tone and language have become harsher and aggravated but he has not divulged anything that may make sense to his followers or those watching him everywhere.
There is, of course, one conspiracy theory, which if it has any substance at all, could be the key to the success of the million man march of PTI. That theory is a big question: Has Imran reached a secret understanding with the Establishment and will it act if the streets of Punjab and Islamabad go out of control?
There is just about zero chance that Khan has received any such assurance or understanding.And if he drives the situation to a shootout, which spins out of the control of civilians, then there is a chance that the army may be called in “in aid of the civilian authority”, but that does not help Khan in any way. So what is his plan?
Obviously, someone has pushed the PTI leader into a blind alley. If the objective is to overthrow Nawaz Sharif by street agitation and force, then a coalition of PTI and Dr Qadri and all other victims of the PML-N may gang up. But that would only be for someone else’s benefit.
As whispers in the drawing rooms of Islamabad continue, a Plan-B is already in place if the politicians fail and indulge in a do or die battle. That Plan-B would, of course, not include any politician and may depend on technocrats and experts and self-servers who are always ready to join extra-constitutional set-ups.
But this Plan-B will go against what Imran Khan has been repeatedly saying; that he does not want to derail democracy.For Nawaz the political options are many. He can defuse the situation by ordering a recounting of ballots in a few constituencies and if there is evidence of rigging, to cancel the polls in these constituencies and order by-elections. All this would be within the Constitution and will not provide any excuse to the Plan-B supporters to move in.
Imran may then demand mid-term polls and that could be avoided through many ways. But a million man march on August 14, or more deadlines given on that date would only annoy the PTI followers and also make the big Khan look like an amateur as it is now becoming a routine that he gathers people and when the balloon gets big to explode, he gets cold feet.
Of course, the result of Zarb-e-Azb would play a key role in the politics of deadlines and street shows. If the army is able to clean up the NWA and the IDPs start returning, as was done in Swat, the Establishment may feel a bit easier and allow the politics of instability. But if things get worse, when and if the TTP blowback comes hard on cities and urban centres, again the civilian government will come under pressure.
By that logic more intervention of the Khakis may be needed in civilian matters and this creeping coup, although it is constitutional and invited by the civilians, may finally end up in a rough deal for all.
So the Khan has to decide how and through which way he will deliver the final blow on August 14, the day Pakistan was born. The roadmap is not there yet but it is pretty hard for him to get out of this corner that he has pushed himself in.And by the way, going for million man marches again and again and failing to give a clear direction will not play well with the exhausted PTI workers and supporters.
Has Imran Khan been pushed into a blind alley? - thenews.com.pk
And if Khan is gathering one million angry people before parliament just to announce that he may be quitting the big House or dissolving his own desperately-needed political and administrative base in Peshawar, it still does not achieve his objective of ousting Nawaz.
Likewise, if he wants to sit before the Presidency and parliament until Nawaz quits, that also may not happen, if the Sharif brothers do not panic and follow the cool like cucumber Asif Zardari, who endured Tahir Qadri’s long march and sit-in for many icy cold days while sitting in his Bilawal Fort in Karachi.
Nawaz also has a similar hideout in Raiwind and he has re-established contact with Mr Zardari for advice.So what is up Khan’s sleeve as in recent TV interviews his tone and language have become harsher and aggravated but he has not divulged anything that may make sense to his followers or those watching him everywhere.
There is, of course, one conspiracy theory, which if it has any substance at all, could be the key to the success of the million man march of PTI. That theory is a big question: Has Imran reached a secret understanding with the Establishment and will it act if the streets of Punjab and Islamabad go out of control?
There is just about zero chance that Khan has received any such assurance or understanding.And if he drives the situation to a shootout, which spins out of the control of civilians, then there is a chance that the army may be called in “in aid of the civilian authority”, but that does not help Khan in any way. So what is his plan?
Obviously, someone has pushed the PTI leader into a blind alley. If the objective is to overthrow Nawaz Sharif by street agitation and force, then a coalition of PTI and Dr Qadri and all other victims of the PML-N may gang up. But that would only be for someone else’s benefit.
As whispers in the drawing rooms of Islamabad continue, a Plan-B is already in place if the politicians fail and indulge in a do or die battle. That Plan-B would, of course, not include any politician and may depend on technocrats and experts and self-servers who are always ready to join extra-constitutional set-ups.
But this Plan-B will go against what Imran Khan has been repeatedly saying; that he does not want to derail democracy.For Nawaz the political options are many. He can defuse the situation by ordering a recounting of ballots in a few constituencies and if there is evidence of rigging, to cancel the polls in these constituencies and order by-elections. All this would be within the Constitution and will not provide any excuse to the Plan-B supporters to move in.
Imran may then demand mid-term polls and that could be avoided through many ways. But a million man march on August 14, or more deadlines given on that date would only annoy the PTI followers and also make the big Khan look like an amateur as it is now becoming a routine that he gathers people and when the balloon gets big to explode, he gets cold feet.
Of course, the result of Zarb-e-Azb would play a key role in the politics of deadlines and street shows. If the army is able to clean up the NWA and the IDPs start returning, as was done in Swat, the Establishment may feel a bit easier and allow the politics of instability. But if things get worse, when and if the TTP blowback comes hard on cities and urban centres, again the civilian government will come under pressure.
By that logic more intervention of the Khakis may be needed in civilian matters and this creeping coup, although it is constitutional and invited by the civilians, may finally end up in a rough deal for all.
So the Khan has to decide how and through which way he will deliver the final blow on August 14, the day Pakistan was born. The roadmap is not there yet but it is pretty hard for him to get out of this corner that he has pushed himself in.And by the way, going for million man marches again and again and failing to give a clear direction will not play well with the exhausted PTI workers and supporters.
Has Imran Khan been pushed into a blind alley? - thenews.com.pk
