Greek crisis is nothing compared to China

[Spectre]

Are u in BlackStone. I might offer you a job

Thanks Bro, 5 years in banking and financial services has sapped my energy. I am comfortable being a disillusioned burn-out of Banking sector. Asset Management in Blackstone - Hmmm tempting but No.

I happy being a consultant for now

 

[Providence]

Thanks Bro, 5 years in banking and associated financial service firm has sapped my energy. I am comfortable being a disillusioned burn-out of Banking sector. Asset Management in Blackstone - Hmmm tempting but No.

I happy being a consultant for now

Asset management ? Sounds boring .. I will cry if you say you are in risk modelling ?

 

[Spectre]

Asset management ? Sounds boring .. I will cry if you say you are in risk modelling ?

Haha Risk modelling - that's for back end boys in Bangalore! Heard it's very bad, I was at front desk thankfully

 

[Guynextdoor2]

Just because the current business model are not viable in long run ?

Have done a bit of research when I was in RocketInternet. We are betting big on INDIA

Problem is not that there aren't good options- if you had bet in Flipkart of Amazon India 2 years ago you'd be sitting on piles of cash now. Now the issue is that there is too much venture cash. Too many startups with not enough differentiation. I think there will be shakedown, especially in the consumer space. I would advise a deep assessment of where you are putting your cash- the ones that make it will make you a neat pile, but there will be others that will go out without a trace

 

[Providence]

Haha Risk modelling - that's for back end boys in Bangalore! Heard it's very bad, I was at front desk thankfully

Since u are in india that's why asked. Glad you werent in that shitty role

Problem is not that there aren't good options- if you had bet in Flipkart of Amazon India 2 years ago you'd be sitting on piles of cash now. Now the issue is that there is too much venture cash. Too many startups with not enough differentiation. I think there will be shakedown, especially in the consumer space. I would advise a deep assessment of where you are putting your cash- the ones that make it will make you a neat pile, but there will be others that will go out without a trace

Ofcourse there will be ventures which will close down. But this mad scramble cannot be called a bubble because there will surely be a bunch of successful global ventures which will come out unscathed at the other end.

It is all about category creation and changing consumer behavior as of now. Noone is competing much on poaching consumers from one another.

 

[dray]

First hand, I have knowledge from my prior work in banks where I was looking into distressed assets of marquee real estates companies in India.

For the rest, I based my comments on the below article

The ever expanding debt bubbles of China and India | Business Line

Have you read the link that you have provided? Even that link is rating India's property bubble far lower than China!

 

[illusion8]

Problem is not that there aren't good options- if you had bet in Flipkart of Amazon India 2 years ago you'd be sitting on piles of cash now. Now the issue is that there is too much venture cash. Too many startups with not enough differentiation. I think there will be shakedown, especially in the consumer space. I would advise a deep assessment of where you are putting your cash- the ones that make it will make you a neat pile, but there will be others that will go out without a trace

There's I believe a grand total of 40 venture capitalists in India - not exactly too much venture cash floating around.

 

[DJ Crudept]

even my uncle lost 10 million rupees (16,000$) in last crash
[HASHTAG]#getwellsoonchina[/HASHTAG]

 

[Spectre]

Problem is not that there aren't good options- if you had bet in Flipkart of Amazon India 2 years ago you'd be sitting on piles of cash now. Now the issue is that there is too much venture cash. Too many startups with not enough differentiation. I think there will be shakedown, especially in the consumer space. I would advise a deep assessment of where you are putting your cash- the ones that make it will make you a neat pile, but there will be others that will go out without a trace

Flipkart? really? Bro I know financials are not available because its not listed but it literally is poison right now among investors. It's just that PE firms have invested so much into it that they have to keep funding to maintain the illusion of potential. Frankly speaking inventory model was never going to work in India. Snapdeal was a better bet financially due to the marketplace model which even flipkart has adapted as of late.



Amazon? I am still not convinced on the benefit of anyone investing in Amazon, I will wait for next e-commerce crash in USA before investing, P/E ratios are still very high and their recent bets on hardware have been a massive loss resulting billions of dollars of write-offs

@Providence - Your views?

 

[Sneaker]

even my uncle lost 10 million rupees (16,000$) in last crash
[HASHTAG]#getwellsoonchina[/HASHTAG]

You have 3ither one extra zero or less... I 0 mil is 1 crore 160000 usd

 

[Spectre]

Have you read the link that you have provided? Even that link is rating India's property bubble far lower than China!

Unfortunately, I did and combined it with my own understanding. Chinese economy is way bigger so obviously numerically the size of bubble will be larger but in reference to economy suffering will be much greater in India.

The relevant comment in the article summary clearly states the same:

Overall, therefore, both in terms of looming liquidity concerns and foreign exchange liabilities, debt in India is an emerging concern.China may appear to have a debt problem of larger size, but India’s debt problem may well turn out to be the more lethal.

Please try to be less contemptuous while responding. Though i would concede the point that any comparison based on hard data is impossible due to opacity of Chinese economy and black money problem in Indian real estate sector.

I am not qualified to comment on the severity of Chinese problem so have to rely on articles but the Indian real-estate sector I know pretty well having analyzed financials of major companies.

 

[illusion8]

Flipkart? really? Bro I know financials are not available because its not listed but it literally is poison right now among investors. It's just that PE firms have invested so much into it that they have to keep funding to maintain the illusion of potential. Frankly speaking inventory model was never going to work in India. Snapdeal was a better bet financially due to the marketplace model which even flipkart has adapted as of late.



Amazon? I am still not convinced on the benefit of anyone investing in Amazon, I will wait for next e-commerce crash in USA before investing, P/E ratios are still very high and their recent bets on hardware have been a massive loss resulting billions of dollars of write-offs

@Providence - Your views?

I agree - flipkart just raised 1200 crores from IDG ventures, but flipkart's situation is like riding a tiger....at least that's what their major suppliers say.

As for e commerce space in India - it's a genuine boom and will only become bigger and bigger. This is from personal experience, I am doing exceptionally well since the last couple of years on the ecommerce platform in India.

 

[dray]

That's what I meant - most construction activities are carried out by the state itself, debt is given and received by CCP's own state bodies.



Real estate slowdown will have an impact on debt servicing - but then...the debt mostly is mostly renminbi and yuan..more can be printed and more can be written off when needed. Outside component input into the chinese infra and manufacturing industry is quite limited, so the risk of bad debt is contained inside china.

chinese collapse has been doing the rounds since a few years - and I don't buy it. @FaujHistorian is right...till the time china maintains its enormous manufacturing base and its huge competitive edge and a massive consumer market...any talk of collapse is just a fad.

Unless there are some hidden political turmoil brewing... ?.

If it was as simple as printing more money or writing off debt, then wouldn't you have completed all our infrastructure needs by printing more money or writing off debts?

The Chinese collupse is doing the rounds for some years because it is supposed to happen, instead of going for a soft landing China is trying to fight it by giving massive economic stimulus for last few years, which is complicating the situation further.

 

[illusion8]

If it was as simple as printing more money or writing off debt, then wouldn't you have completed all our infrastructure needs by printing more money or writing off debts?

The Chinese collupse is doing the rounds for some years because it is supposed to happen, instead of going for a soft landing China is trying to fight it by giving massive economic stimulus for last few years, which is complicating the situation further.

chinese governance and style of control over their industries isn't comparable to other market economies. They can print more currency because their manufacturing base is huge. They can lend to their own without consideration of default because the money remains in the CCP's system.

There might be some truth to the turnaround in their economic forecasts - but the capability to recover back from any downturn is also huge because they aren't really dependent much on external forces.

 

[dray]

Unfortunately, I did and combined it with my own understanding. Chinese economy is way bigger so obviously numerically the size of bubble will be larger but in reference to economy suffering will be much greater in India.

The relevant comment in the article summary clearly states the same:

Overall, therefore, both in terms of looming liquidity concerns and foreign exchange liabilities, debt in India is an emerging concern.China may appear to have a debt problem of larger size, but India’s debt problem may well turn out to be the more lethal.

Please try to be less contemptuous while responding. Though i would concede the point that any comparison based on hard data is impossible due to opacity of Chinese economy and black money problem in Indian real estate sector.

I am not qualified to comment on the severity of Chinese problem so have to rely on articles but the Indian real-estate sector I know pretty well having analyzed financials of major companies.

India's real estate issues are mostly confined to a few big cities, primarily the Noida area, and it is still managable for the banks to recover their debts from the property even if some developers go bankrupt, because the high prices have been created by the developers who are selling the properties with absurd margins. Further, not all are bank funded, there are good amount of black money in it. The sotuation is not big enough to create an economic crisis in India. Things are not so good in China though, I will give you some good links and a link to the interview of their biggest real estate mogul later.