True..
Revenue target for FY22 will be Rs 5,800b which as per today's GDP is 12%, but by then GDP size would also have grown so tax to GDP may only be about 10% by end of FY22, provided we meet the target. A country cannot substantially expand economy till it starts collecting atleast 20% of GDP in tax. We may never get there because inorder to do so large land holders will have to be heavily taxed and all our parliamentarians come from big landed class.
Today in Asad Umar's press conference (video in OP)... he mentioned that PSDP for FY22 will be around 900b which is 250b more than current FY. Just this 250b increase will add 0.25% increase in GDP growth so imagine if we increase PSDP by 2tr we could add 1-2% in GDP growth as you mentioned and easily start hitting serious growth numbers like 7-8%.
At that growth rate we could double our economy in 5-6 years.
Just doing one thing i.e digitalization of sales tax, payments and invoice tracking will add 1-2 trillion rupees
This basically zero work its just a polciy decision which govt went and walked back several times after establishment asked the govt to walk back when traders refused to accept it
It seems the Oil sector might be correctd this will be 300b rupees
Maryam Nawaz is disqualified and government just filed another reference against Qazi Faiz Isa. I think PTI will fight tooth and nail to not this dog become CJ.
Secondly PML-N isn't popular enough to form the next government. They will have to do very well in Central Punjab and then make alliances with PPP+MQM even then it'll be a very weak government.
PTI have already started to dig their claws in PML-N voter base, universal health insurance launched in seven districts of Punjab with all to be covered by year end. Now th economy is rapidly improving as well, so if things keep going this way PTI will not only regain their lost popularity they will substantially increase it as well.
So no I don't see Maryam Nawaz or PML-N in government after 2023. PTI all set to get another term, however with our establishment you never know they might want to give failed Sharifs another deal and bring them back.
1. Judges will protect qazi essa
2. Qazi essa will over turn maryum-nawaz judgement if shahbaz mends ties with army
3. PMLN enjoys unconditonal large support in central PUNJAB as he has embeded jaag punjabi jaag and has all the govt beurocrats and judicary/election comission under/apointed by him
4. Central punjab has 99 seats, you need 136 to form the govt(out of 272)
PPPP formed govt in 2008 after winning 78 seats, PMLN can do so if it clean sweeps central punjab rather just wining it(56 out of 99 in 2018; need around 80out of 99)
Infact PMLN popularity may have gone up
However if govt address lahore problems..get growth in 6+ range things might change
5. PTI will hold KPK but i am not sure how karachi will behave? Will they vote for PPPP(or dont vote low turn out=pppp vote) or will PTI win back karachi
We know that although KIV will be almost completed delivwring that water to karachi will take another 2-3 years
KCR will take 7-8 years
Though nalas and BRTs might be completed
