'Good news': Shaukat Tarin confirms SBP's receipt of $3bn deposit from Saudi Arabia

[ARMalik]

I feel really sorry for IK. The PM has to go begging other countries to ensure he can run his government for the people, BUT then these Fat Corrupt A-Holes sitting in the Establishment, Judiciary, Assemblies, keep LOOTING and keep eating haram! The establishment reminds me of vultures in the wild who keep eating everything they get.

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

Pakistan's economy can be best described with this analogy


Core Problem : Local Taxation is Flawed , money collected need to pool down into 1 Universal Account
Too many people with hands in small bank accounts , and chances exist for corruption


Taking Loan :
It resolves the issue temporarily but in order to address the Core problem


Taxation needs to be collected , and then collected in 1 Single Account like Bhasha Dam Fund so it is easy to track what is being collected from which cities and provincial level (Emergency Basis Move Required)

Reforms are needed so money collected is directly deposited into Federal Account from All sources
without being exposed to province level watchers


Remove Mechanism to allow money to get polled into Province level mini accounts and then vanish
Just collect the money directly in Federal Level Account


Presently the problem lies because provinces like Sindh have high % corruption, and just too many people have hands in the cookie jar everyone pulls out few Crore here and there but it all adds up fast



Current Model

• Ali Baba and 40 Theives

In case of Pakistan it is Ali Baba (Imran Khan ) and 300 Parliamentarians and then 30,000 multi level beneficiaries , 200,000 Lawyers and Judges tola on the payroll for these beneficiaries, 50,000 Bankers in prominent positions who help move currency for Politicians abroad and not forgetting 100,000 News Anchors and Article writers in Daily News whose main job is to talk about Tomatoe and potatoe

 

[Patriot forever]

There was $95B debt at the end of PML N Govt. The debt is $127B now or perhaps more than $130B if we also add recent $3B for Saudia loan. So if $30B loans are repaid then total loan should not have been more than $105B as per your logic which is not the case. Please don't tell me the rest is accumulated due to interest rates,

Bro debt is complicated. The figure under which heads you are quoting under different government is different. $127b is the total external debt as of latest.

1) When we entered IMF programme the debt that was kept off the books especially Chinese e.g. CPEC was kept off the books. To bring transparency was the first demand of IMF. Was adjusted in bilateral debt component I think.
Furthermore do you know we owe the Chinese companies almost $3b in sovereign guaranteed return against IPP's ( just one component). When we talk about sovereign guarantees that means state is responsible for payment. This is why we were against the IPP 2015 policy because that high ROI or capacity payment components are in dollars, which has to paid to Chinese companies and inturn these companies have to pay to their share holders in China. ( Adjusted in commercial debt component)
This is why you see there is a spike in debt in the initial period of pti government. ( in dollar terms).

2) Secondly debt payments made by the government includes interest component as well. Interest component on an average is $3b per year. That adds onto your debt. That alone accounts for $10b + loans we took to pay interest on precious loans. The debt trap.
( Interest rates by SBP is for domestic debt like PIB's not external debt).

3) The state Bank reserves are built on borrowing. There is a 10 billion dollar increase, so subtract that from external debt as the money is in the reserves not spent by the government.

4) Overall debt also includes Bonds issued by Wapda (Green Bonds etc) to finance big Dam constructions which are undergoing. They issued 2 long term bonds as well.

5) We had the loans given by WB to buy vaccines etc ( which is also debt).

Now to sum it up,
We had $11b CAD in 2019
$7b CAD in 2020
$1b something in 2021
Alot of it in 2019 had to be financed by SBP, when the rupee was gradually being transformed to market based.
Thank to the market based flexible currency which is bearing the brunt of CAD moving forward. Otherwise our debt would have been significantly higher.
This year FY22 we have lost $1.8b ( to my estimate), the rest of the CAD hit is negated by currency. That's why we need to bring CAD under control.

Now you do the maths. Just the SBP reserves are up by ~ $10b and interest payment ( external) is $10b+. The actual debt incurred by central government is way way less than plmn.

 

[Sal12]

Bro debt is complicated. The figure under which heads you are quoting under different government is different. $127b is the total external debt as of latest.

1) When we entered IMF programme the debt that was kept off the books especially Chinese e.g. CPEC was kept off the books. To bring transparency was the first demand of IMF. Was adjusted in bilateral debt component I think.
Furthermore do you know we owe the Chinese companies almost $3b in sovereign guaranteed return against IPP's ( just one component). When we talk about sovereign guarantees that means state is responsible for payment. This is why we were against the IPP 2015 policy because that high ROI or capacity payment components are in dollars, which has to paid to Chinese companies and inturn these companies have to pay to their share holders in China. ( Adjusted in commercial debt component)
This is why you see there is a spike in debt in the initial period of pti government. ( in dollar terms).

2) Secondly debt payments made by the government includes interest component as well. Interest component on an average is $3b per year. That adds onto your debt. That alone accounts for $10b + loans we took to pay interest on precious loans. The debt trap.
( Interest rates by SBP is for domestic debt like PIB's not external debt).

3) The state Bank reserves are built on borrowing. There is a 10 billion dollar increase, so subtract that from external debt as the money is in the reserves not spent by the government.

4) Overall debt also includes Bonds issued by Wapda (Green Bonds etc) to finance big Dam constructions which are undergoing. They issued 2 long term bonds as well.

5) We had the loans given by WB to buy vaccines etc ( which is also debt).

Now to sum it up,
We had $11b CAD in 2019
$7b CAD in 2020
$1b something in 2021
Alot of it in 2019 had to be financed by SBP, when the rupee was gradually being transformed to market based.
Thank to the market based flexible currency which is bearing the brunt of CAD moving forward. Otherwise our debt would have been significantly higher.
This year FY22 we have lost $1.8b ( to my estimate), the rest of the CAD hit is negated by currency. That's why we need to bring CAD under control.

Now you do the maths. Just the SBP reserves are up by ~ $10b and interest payment ( external) is $10b+. The actual debt incurred by central government is way way less than plmn.

Thanks for your detailed reply.

Pak might have repaid the highest amount in loan in 3.5 years of IK Govt but still Pak external debt is $130B (an increase of $35B since PML N) because IK Govt took the highest amount of loan in history as well and even then Pak is at the verge of bankruptcy.

If $95B does not include CPEC loan then $130B also does not include CPEC loans. No matter how much you twist the figures in IK favour, the reality is external debt has increased a lot in 3.5 years of current Govt. Also the GDP in $ is same as it was in mid 2018 because of 15% devaluation of PKR in last 6 months alone.

 

[khail007]

Being Pakistani reminds me, this begging spree for the last 70 years did not take and will never take us anywhere but keep us at the same level or maybe a more deteriorated one.
I will give the name to this strategy 'Mera Naam Mungoo' (A very popular PTV serial in the decades of the 70s). Though our present government and all previous governments count such begging as their success.
We have to do some reforms by taking the masses into confidence and not cheating/hiding the truth from them or else keep on begging from IMF and so-called 'Brotherly Nations' and to accept the conditions with no improvement in sight. Presently we are suffering from all economic adverse conditions with no relief in sight, so why not suffer for the good in the future by taking the bitter pills of reforms at the national level, which may improve our economics within a decade.

 

[RoadRunner401]

They are high fiving each other and celebrating. This is not what Imran Khan promised.

I want to use real colourful words to describe people like you, but I will restrain myself, First and this are very important remove that offensive flag as your avatar, its offensive to millions around the world, second stay away from subjects you clearly have no knowledge about. This subject has been disgusted on this forum million times and explained, it's obvious you can't understand it because its beyond your brain's capacity.

There was $95B debt at the end of PML N Govt. The debt is $127B now or perhaps more than $130B if we also add recent $3B for Saudia loan. So if $30B loans are repaid then total loan should not have been more than $105B as per your logic which is not the case. Please don't tell me the rest is accumulated due to interest rates,

YES P.T.I Inherited $95 billion of debt with empty treasury and almost non existence tax base to service the debt not to mention billions of dollars of debt that was cleverly kept off the books by Ishaq door who also dumped 20 billion dollars of borrowed money in the markets to keep the rupee artificially higher against the dollar.

2004 to 2007 Shaukat Aziz= $34 billion to $50 billion
2008 to 2012 Yousaf Raza Gillani= $50 billion to $62 billion
2012 to 2013 Raza pervaiz and Mir Hazar khan khoso = $62 billion to $58.5 billion

2013 Exports stood at roughly $25 billion (Some companies in the world make more than that in a year, so for a country the size of Pakistan its a joke)

Let's get to the golden period of Mian Nawaz shrief; 2013 to 2018 debt goes from $58 billion to $95 billions dollars (this figure does not include the money borrowed, but cleverly kept off the books by PML_N, actual debt figures are higher)

When PML_N left the office, our exports stood at $20 billion dollars $5 billion less then PPP (Economic boom, according to PML-N). Pakistan was importing everything, including the agricultural products by 2018, which were heavily subsidized with borrowed money to make it look like all is good but in reality have killed almost all manufacturing and farmers...

After inheriting an almost bankrupt country and political appointees in bureaucracy loyal to PPP and PML_N not to mention Covid 19, PTI has managed to turn the corner TAX to GDP is Starting to GO in Right direction, billions more than projected have been collected which will get better with track and trace


This must not have been easy for dawn to report :

Textile exports projected to cross $20bn target

LAHORE: With the ongoing $3.5 billion expansion plan for the textile industry, Pakistan’s textile exports are likely to increase by $6bn and cross the $20bn target projected for the fiscal year 2021-22.
In November alone, textile exports were up 36 per cent as compared to the same period last year, data shared by the All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (Aptma) showed.
“With the ongoing expansion plan, our exports are gradually rising and reflecting very positive signs for the industry. [Textile exports will] easily reach $21bn which is one billion more than the actual target of the $20bn set for FY22,” Aptma chairman Abdul Rahim Nasir told Dawn on Saturday.

“The total investment and expansion plan for all sectors for FY22 is worth $4.5bn and includes $3.5bn for textile sector alone. Investments of $1.5bn have been made so far in the textile sector while the rest $2bn would be in place by June 30, 2022,” the Aptma chairman explained. Major investments and expansions have been made for value-addition including from semi-finished to finished goods, raw cloth to dyed cloth to garments for example, he maintained.

“Since things are in the right directions at present, we will surely achieve our targets and even more this year subject to continuation of pro-exports’ policies,” the Aptma chairman believed.
The association has termed textile growth in November and July to November, 2021 a good omen for the textile industry.
“Alhamdulillah Textile entrepreneurs have honoured their commitment, with expansion plans well on track Textile exports are set to increase by 6 billion dollars this year compared to last year, thereby equivalent to the 3 year IMF Program,” the association said in a tweet on Saturday.

According to data shared by Aptma, textile exports (silk, wool, cotton, vegetable textile fibres, man-made staple fibres, wadding, carpets, special woven fabrics, impregnated, coated textile fibres, knitted fabrics, apparel and other made-up textile articles etc) jumped to over $1.747bn (36pc) in November from over $1.286bn attained in the same period in 2020.
Likewise, exports jumped to over $7.834bn from July to November 2021, posting a rise of 29pc from over $6.052 recorded in the same period last year.
It may be mentioned that the textile & apparel sector had touched a figure of $15.380bn in FY21. The government, keeping in view the exports growth, projected $20bn target for FY22.
Similarly, agri sector exports last year reached $4.341bn. For FY22, the target has been set at $4.858bn. Non-agri exports reached to $5.578bn last year and target for FY22 has been fixed at $6.357bn.

Country’s total exports — including textile, agri and non-agri — remained at $25.300bn last year. The ongoing year’s target has been projected as $31.225bn subject to continuation of the ongoing enabling environment aiming at export-led sustainable growth.
Published in Dawn, December 5th, 2021

 

[Patriot forever]

Thanks for your detailed reply.

Pak might have repaid the highest amount in loan in 3.5 years of IK Govt but still Pak external debt is $130B (an increase of $35B since PML N) because IK Govt took the highest amount of loan in history as well and even then Pak is at the verge of bankruptcy.

If $95B does not include CPEC loan then $130B also does not include CPEC loans. No matter how much you twist the figures in IK favour, the reality is external debt has increased a lot in 3.5 years of current Govt. Also the GDP in $ is same as it was in mid 2018 because of 15% devaluation of PKR in last 6 months alone.

Bro I do not need to twist figures as my quoted figures are official.



Your GDP in dollars was inflated because they were not calculated at actual value of your currency instead were calculated at the value SBP was selling dollars in the market for cheap. The actual value of your currency was much lower based on REER and NEER and was already falling.


Forget everything, just to keep it simple our reserves with SBP are almost $10b more than in 2018 ( basically borrowed money). $30b - $10b = $20b. ( This includes Wapda bonds as well).
( Although just the interest payment which we have to take new loans to pay back in the last 3 years is more than 5 years of Plmn).

The basic is we are in a debt cycle, we need to borrow more money each year because we are unable to pay back the interest on debt on our own.
Its just like a credit card payment if you don't pay it gets worse every month. 50k than 55k than 65k than 80k.
The only way out is to increase inflows ( exports, remittances basically ). This is only thing that can get you out.

 

[AZ1]

jo de uska bhi bhala jo na de uska bhi bhala 74 years old story

jo na de america ki sazish lol

 

[baqai]

height of stupidity, we cannot use this, it is taken just so we have enough reserve funds to get more loan from IMF

awam ku banatay rahu chotia buss

 

[AZ1]

height of stupidity, we cannot use this, it is taken just so we have enough reserve funds to get more loan from IMF

awam ku banatay rahu chotia buss

any source bhai? aur waqaiye IMF ko tou pata hi nahi hoga yeh sab

 

[wali87]

Pakistan's economy can be best described with this analogy


Core Problem : Local Taxation is Flawed , money collected need to pool down into 1 Universal Account
Too many people with hands in small bank accounts , and chances exist for corruption


Taking Loan :
It resolves the issue temporarily but in order to address the Core problem


Taxation needs to be collected , and then collected in 1 Single Account like Bhasha Dam Fund so it is easy to track what is being collected from which cities and provincial level (Emergency Basis Move Required)


View attachment 799022


Reforms are needed so money collected is directly deposited into Federal Account from All sources
without being exposed to province level watchers


Remove Mechanism to allow money to get polled into Province level mini accounts and then vanish
Just collect the money directly in Federal Level Account


Presently the problem lies because provinces like Sindh have high % corruption, and just too many people have hands in the cookie jar everyone pulls out few Crore here and there but it all adds up fast



Current Model

• Ali Baba and 40 Theives

In case of Pakistan it is Ali Baba (Imran Khan ) and 300 Parliamentarians and then 30,000 multi level beneficiaries , 200,000 Lawyers and Judges tola on the payroll for these beneficiaries, 50,000 Bankers in prominent positions who help move currency for Politicians abroad and not forgetting 100,000 News Anchors and Article writers in Daily News whose main job is to talk about Tomatoe and potatoe


View attachment 799038

Actually there is one entity which supercedes Sadiq amin aswell and are ontop if the corrupt food change. The military establishment aka holy cows.

 

[Patriot forever]

height of stupidity, we cannot use this, it is taken just so we have enough reserve funds to get more loan from IMF

awam ku banatay rahu chotia buss

Bro where did you get the idea that these funds were given to us to go candy shopping.

This is what it is. These are taken so that we can roll over our maturing debt. The more reserves we have the greater the confidence that we will be able to make next payment hence more stable we are.

This is called debt trap cycle. This happens when you become an import dependant economyby design ( just to give an example we will spend around $10b this year to buy fuel to run those imported coal and RLNG plants when we could have easily got that in rupees ( that too all this amount will be circulated in our own economy creating both direct and indirect jobs developing an entire industry) if we installed thar coal based plants instead of those imported fuel IPP's. Furthermore the high ROI resulting in billions of dollars.

People here do not have a problem in paying more than 18% to IPP's yet find faults in 3.8% state Bank deposit bu Saudi Arabia. Yet these same chutiyas complain about electricity tariff hike.


We will get more funds next year to pay back these funds.

The only way out is to increase our earnings. ( exports and remittances).

Even GDP growth is meaningless in case of debt unless it is coupled with higher inflows like remittances and exports.

Reserves by definition are a balance sheet of inflows and outflows over a period of time.

 

[jk007]

military budget while in Pakistan it comes under civilian budget.

Are you sure about this?

 

[Zibago]

How is this government any different from N? they're exactly doing the same thing and bankrolling the economy on loans. The only difference is they're incompetent and can't even do this properly.

If only we didnt had an 18 billion deficit in 2018

I wonder which government it was who managed to decrease exports even below ppp

 

[StormBreaker]

Will this stabilize the dollar for the time being ?