Global GDP for 2022.....find your country

[_NOBODY_]

Bro sorry disagree with you on this one. Regarding very strong economies you are right but most powerful countries in the Muslim world? Doubtful especially the UAE.

If military power isn't everything and if it was everything then Russia would be considered stronger than the likes of Germany and France. Being the biggest oil player gives immense power to Saudi Arabia. How many other countries have you seen get away with human violations as KSA does? This displays their geopolitical importance in the world. Being the custodian of two of the holiest Islamic places on this planet also gives exponential leverage to KSA. KSA recently started focusing on the part of the Arabian-Nubian shield that it controls and the mining potential in that area is worth north of $1 trillion. Economically speaking, UAE has made itself far less dependent on oil as compared to other oil-rich ME nations despite being a major oil player itself, UAE's economy is by far the most diverse in the Persian Gulf. UAE is a major player in the region, it has transformed itself into a major tourist destination and a hub of innovation. Look how much money the Emirati startups are raising, last year the UAE-based startups raised $1.2 billion.

 

[Mista]

IMF predicts that China's GDP is 19.9T?

No, in 2022, we will definitely exceed 20T. As long as the exchange rate rises by 0.5%, it is enough.

Didn’t the exchange rate go down since the USD appreciated?

Since last year, CNY has been appreciating against the US dollar. When the war broke out in Ukraine at the beginning of this year, CNY exchange rate once reached 6.4.

On January 15, 2022, the Central Bank of China began to cut interest rates (at this time, the world was following the USA in raising interest rates). This gradually reduced the exchange rate of CNY to 6.7.

The exchange rate of CNY has been stable at 6.7 in recent months and has not been affected by the US dollar interest rate hike.

The Bank of China has US $3.5 trillion in foreign exchange reserves and US $1trillion in US debt. They have the ability to adjust the exchange rate of CNY at any time.

Are there any financial institutions that dare to short or long CNY? No financial institution has equal strength with Bank of China.

In fact I think the forecast for China's full year GDP in 2022 would be overstated here.

The forecast shared here was released by IMF in April, which means the data collected and studies done was probably in Feb/March. They probably did not account for the mass Shanghai lockdown from April to June, and the depreciation of the RMB against the USD in late-April.

1 USD to CNY - US Dollars to Chinese Yuan Renminbi Exchange Rate

Get the latest 1 US Dollar to Chinese Yuan Renminbi rate for FREE with the original Universal Currency Converter. Set rate alerts for to and learn more about US Dollars and Chinese Yuan Renminbi from XE - the Currency Authority.

www.xe.com

China's 2022H1 GDP:

In the first half of the year, China’s GDP grew 2.5 percent year-on-year to 56.3 trillion yuan ($8.3 trillion), the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Friday. In the second quarter of 2022, when the country faced severe COVID-19 outbreaks, GDP grew 0.4 percent year-on-year, the slowest pace since the outbreak in 2020, as compared with a 4.8 percent in the first quarter of the year.

China’s H1 GDP expands 2.5% as economy braves mounting challenges - Global Times

www.globaltimes.cn

So for China's full year GDP to exceed $20T, their 2022H2 GDP needs to hit ~$12T, which is almost 50% larger than 2022H1 GDP of ~$8T.

Yeah, not likely.

People's Republic of China and the IMF

IMF Executive Board Concludes 2022 Article IV Consultation with the People's Republic of China

www.imf.org

^Projections made by IMF for China, released in April.


The RMB has depreciated ~6% against the USD this year. Assuming no further changes in exchange rates, full year real GDP growth is around 4.5%, inflation is around 2%, China's nominal GDP growth in USD terms would be around:
-6% + 4.5% + 2% = ~0.5%.

So full year GDP in USD terms would be around USD17T in 2022.

Of course these are just estimates, there are still many variables which can happen in the second half of the year. Rolling out aggressive stimulus which will push up growth and inflation? Or more widespread Covid lockdowns across China which will dampen demand and slow growth and inflation? Divergent monetary policy between the US and China which adds more pressure on the RMB? Etc.

If you ask me, I don't think China would change their basic policy on Covid anytime soon. And with the current spread of more infectious Omicron, I don't see a sharp rebound of their GDP growth for 2022H2, which means full year GDP growth would be even more muted.

I don’t quite understand how both the US and China can expand by $3 trillion when economic growth was measly in both countries in 2021

You mean in 2022?

Shared my thoughts on China above.

For the US, it's more like $2.3T based on OP. The increase in nominal GDP is driven more by inflation than real GDP growth though.

United States and the IMF

www.imf.org

^Projections made by IMF for the US, released in April.

The increase in nominal GDP for the US is probably also going to be overstated. Last week, the IMF has already revised US's real GDP growth for the year downwards to 2.3% due to tightening monetary policies:

WASHINGTON (REUTERS, BLOOMBERG) - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its growth projections for the US economy this year and next, and raised its unemployment rate estimates through 2025, warning that a broad-based surge in inflation poses "systemic risks" to both the country and the global economy.

Gross domestic product (GDP) in the world's biggest economy will expand 2.3 per cent this year, the executive board of the Washington-based lender said in its so-called Article IV consultation released on Tuesday (July 12). That is less than the 2.9 per cent it projected last month.

IMF cuts month-old US growth forecasts, citing inflation risks

The US economy is forecast to grow 2.3% this year, down from 2.9% predicted in June. Read more at straitstimes.com.

www.straitstimes.com

But it also seems like full year inflation for the US is going to be higher than 7.7%, so maybe that can make up for the fall in real GDP growth lololol.

United States Inflation Rate

Inflation Rate in the United States increased to 2.60 percent in October from 2.40 percent in September of 2024. This page provides - United States Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

tradingeconomics.com

 

[murugan]

I don't think it represents the true picture of Indian economy and GDP.
Don't have high hopes for the recent future of the country.
It has already been infested with strong headed policy decisions which has resulted in loss of flexibility for long term rapid economical growth.
The 3.3T mark is a myth and the 5T mark is a long lost cause.

 

[Communism]

In fact I think the forecast for China's full year GDP in 2022 would be overstated here.

The forecast shared here was released by IMF in April, which means the data collected and studies done was probably in Feb/March. They probably did not account for the mass Shanghai lockdown from April to June, and the depreciation of the RMB against the USD in late-April.

View attachment 863285

1 USD to CNY - US Dollars to Chinese Yuan Renminbi Exchange Rate

Get the latest 1 US Dollar to Chinese Yuan Renminbi rate for FREE with the original Universal Currency Converter. Set rate alerts for to and learn more about US Dollars and Chinese Yuan Renminbi from XE - the Currency Authority.

www.xe.com

China's 2022H1 GDP:

China’s H1 GDP expands 2.5% as economy braves mounting challenges - Global Times

www.globaltimes.cn

So for China's full year GDP to exceed $20T, their 2022H2 GDP needs to hit ~$12T, which is almost 50% larger than 2022H1 GDP of ~$8T.

Yeah, not likely.


View attachment 863292

People's Republic of China and the IMF

IMF Executive Board Concludes 2022 Article IV Consultation with the People's Republic of China

www.imf.org

^Projections made by IMF for China, released in April.


The RMB has depreciated ~6% against the USD this year. Assuming no further changes in exchange rates, full year real GDP growth is around 4.5%, inflation is around 2%, China's nominal GDP growth in USD terms would be around:
-6% + 4.5% + 2% = ~0.5%.

So full year GDP in USD terms would be around USD17T in 2022.

Of course these are just estimates, there are still many variables which can happen in the second half of the year. Rolling out aggressive stimulus which will push up growth and inflation? Or more widespread Covid lockdowns across China which will dampen demand and slow growth and inflation? Divergent monetary policy between the US and China which adds more pressure on the RMB? Etc.

If you ask me, I don't think China would change their basic policy on Covid anytime soon. And with the current spread of more infectious Omicron, I don't see a sharp rebound of their GDP growth for 2022H2, which means full year GDP growth would be even more muted.



You mean in 2022?

Shared my thoughts on China above.

For the US, it's more like $2.3T based on OP. The increase in nominal GDP is driven more by inflation than real GDP growth though.

View attachment 863293

United States and the IMF

www.imf.org

^Projections made by IMF for the US, released in April.

The increase in nominal GDP for the US is probably also going to be overstated. Last week, the IMF has already revised US's real GDP growth for the year downwards to 2.3% due to tightening monetary policies:

IMF cuts month-old US growth forecasts, citing inflation risks

The US economy is forecast to grow 2.3% this year, down from 2.9% predicted in June. Read more at straitstimes.com.

www.straitstimes.com

But it also seems like full year inflation for the US is going to be higher than 7.7%, so maybe that can make up for the fall in real GDP growth lololol.

View attachment 863296

United States Inflation Rate

Inflation Rate in the United States increased to 2.60 percent in October from 2.40 percent in September of 2024. This page provides - United States Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

tradingeconomics.com

Q1 and Q2 are already confirmed to be negative in real GDP growth in the U.S.

This means Q3 and Q4 will also likely be negative in real GDP growth in the U.S., as I doubt the Fed will pivot before 2023.

The only reason to stop tightening would have been the mid-terms, but since the Fed already said they would tighten during that time, there's no real reason for them to stop tightening this year at all.

The labor market is still extremely tight in the U.S.

 

[Mista]

Q1 and Q2 are already confirmed to be negative in real GDP growth in the U.S.

This means Q3 and Q4 will also likely be negative in real GDP growth in the U.S., as I doubt the Fed will pivot before 2023.

The only reason to stop tightening would have been the mid-terms, but since the Fed already said they would tighten during that time, there's no real reason for them to stop tightening this year at all.

The labor market is still extremely tight in the U.S.

It's negative if we go by QoQ growth, but still positive if we go by YoY growth which IMO is a more accurate measurement if we want to measure full year GDP growth. Q1's YoY growth is 3.5%.