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Geopolitics of ASEAN+ region

By choosing to ally with India and thus helping India’s attempts to rise in competition with China, the risk for Japan is that it will antagonize all nations that considers India as a threat - these nations are nations that border India (including China) or are nearby such as Sri Lanka, as well as most Muslims nations of the world who consider India as one of the most anti-Muslim nations of the world. Although India contains the 2nd or 3rd largest Muslim population of the world after Indonesia and possibly Pakistan, as is shown from the recent riots, Muslim lives are not safe and secure in India, they are under constant threat for random riot incidents, instigated by Hindutva radical extremist political parties and their activists. A militarily more powerful India will not only translate into more threat perception by Muslim nations in South Asia, but also for Muslim nations elsewhere, regardless of the facade of good relations its diplomats have managed to achieve with some of these nations.

Japan’s latest attempt to join India in an alliance and thus empower this Hindutva terrorist and radical extremist infested nation, will be a continuation of Japanese racist and imperialist policies that it engaged in during WW II and caused untold atrocities killing many millions among many different nations, including China, who bore the main brunt of Japanese attempt to subjugate almost all of East Asia. It seems Japan has not learned from its past mistakes, in fact Japan has not yet apologized the way Germany has. History of Japan’s self defeating policies go much further back in history. Yamato Wa, a fledgeling Japanese country in 7th century, had close cultural and family links with the royal dynasty of Baekje, a small Korean kingdom, during the 3 kingdoms era. Yamato Wa tried to help its ally by sending an Armada in a last ditch effort to save that kingdom. Unfortunately the Armada faced a crushing defeat and total annihilation at the hand of Silla-Tang alliance:
Battle of Baekgang - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

A recent historical Korean drama covers this battle and the background in great detail. I will try to post a link to it later.

I would urge China and ASEAN nations to reconsider the ASEAN+ idea to persuade Japan away from choosing this wrong path. If Japan is adamant and continues in this path, as is usually the case when it has made up its mind, then I predict that the following scenario may emerge in the rest of the region:

1. Instead of Japan and South Korea taking the lead in developing and integrating the ASEAN countries, it will be China and South Korea who will take the lead, just like the Silla-Tang alliance in old days, standing up against an Imperialist Japan and its new lackey, India
2. China and South Korea will work together to reduce Japanese and Indian influence in the region, so the ASEAN+ idea will remain intact, but it will exclude Japan and include China as the main leader and sponsor, but not formally a part of it
3. ASEAN nations such as Vietnam and Philippines who will go along with the Japanese plan, will be excluded from the ASEAN economic and infrastructure integration plan till they decide to end their support for the India-Japan axis plan and approach
3. Since Vietnam borders China, I believe it will be possible to persuade them using economic incentives and reaching some bilateral compromise about territorial issues
4. Philippines on the other hand will be harder to handle, because of Western influence, although Chinese should make sustained efforts to bring them back closer to other ASEAN nations. If all attempts fail, then China and other ASEAN and Muslim nations spread out in Asia and Africa should reduce trade with all nations that will join this new Japan-India axis of racism bent on genocide of their neighbors

Just like Japan has planned a Japan-India axis as part of the Diamond alliance, Japan is testing the water for another alliance with another large neighbor of China who is close to China, but at the same time feels threatened by China’s rise at some level. This large neighbor happens to be Russia. Shinzo Abe has been visiting many of China’s neighbors in recent months and Russia is one of these countries. Recently there has been some thawing of relationship between the two countries. The 4 northern islands that Russia occupied at the tail end of WW II, Russia is considering shared use with Japan for at least 2 of these islands.

To counter Japanese foray in Eurasia, Chinese could help to create a competing Southern Eurasian Union, comprising of Turkey, Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan. A stable region like this has tremendous development potential and could work to reduce Russian influence and finally draw in the 5 Central Asian stan’s.

Someone has gone berserk.

Khayali pulao pakaana is the easiest job in the world anyways. ;)


Though I doubt the person in question is exactly in the "ladakpan" phase of his life, the day dreams (or wet dreams that have nothing to do with reality and are purely an escape mechanism from impotence in real life) reflect that the phase never really ended. ;)

Why this obsession with India di?

We don't give a damn to these hate filled traitors that we threw out from our country, saved from an ongoing orgy of rapine and genocide at the hands of fellow Islamists and gave a brand new country.

Now, just disappear and never show your face.

Please!!!
 
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Just to see how much cut off these people are from reality, let's consider some facts.

-Muslims are being killed in the largest numbers by fellow Muslims, wherever you see.
-The person in question wants Bangladeshi poor youth to get involved in other peoples' civil war to die as mercenaries. Though he "understands" why the local Arabs won't do that!
-He himself won't do that. He prefers the safety of a non Muslim secular democracy for himself and his family. A country that is fighting the Islamic radicals and countries all over the world.
-There is no indication on the ground that the Ashraf Islamic countries give a frickin damn to these Ajlafs.

-India has no enmity with any Muslim country.
-The riots are local phenomenon and pale in scale compared to what is going on in several Muslim majority countries.
-Muslims enjoy the maximum religious freedom (for all sects) compared to any Muslim majority country.

Reality is, India doesn't carry out its foreign policy on the basis of religion. These obsessed nut cases should give their hyper active but misguided brain some rest. All their impotent rants mostly come from their obsession with India and their prior faith when we don't give a damn to these traitors.
 
Lately Hindutva trolls in this site have understood and learned that they cannot openly show their hatred for Muslims, because it will hurt their and their country's interest, but it does not change the fact that in 21st century we still have Hindu-Muslim riots and hundreds sometimes thousands get killed in India because Hindu's want to teach a lesson to the minority Muslim community, whenever they get the slightest opportunity, taking law in their own hand.
 
The fact that doesn't change is that the largest number of Muslims (and non Muslims, they don't seem to mater to these hate filled Islmists, though they personally prefer the safety of non Muslim secular democracies) have been killed and continue to get killed in Muslim countries and at the hands of Muslims.

That this is the 21st century doesn't change anything because their idea of an ideal utopia is a 7th century desert, with ample free booty, rapine, genocide and plunder of kaffirs.

These hate filled bigots just happen to most hate countries/people they are born near to.

We don't have anything against 50+ Islamic countries in the world.

These hate filled zombies can't see us in one country, our own country!


They belong to Gitmo! They are as much Islamic terrorists (that they support) as the ones that take the next step and blow themselves up.

And they are the real enemies of peaceful Muslims all over the world. They don't want peace and co-operation, they want confrontation just because of their own inadequacies, hatreds and impotence.

And just to burst their bubble (to enlist non Muslim patrons that they plan to turn on later on), here is the reality.

Negative views of Muslims were also strong in several Asian countries: Half or more of the Japanese, Indians, Chinese and South Koreans surveyed said they had negative impressions of Muslims.

Anti-Jewish and anti-Muslim attitudes rise in Europe - The New York Times

Both the Chinese and Japanese express generally unfavorable views of Pakistan, while the Chinese tend to feel negatively toward India as well.


Publics of Asian Powers Hold Negative Views of One Another | Pew Global Attitudes Project

Such hate filled people are the reason why!

They want to wet dream up a global order!

All because of their impotent hate and rage!
 
Another fact: These hate filed bigots either want to ignore and forget the reality of hundreds of thousands of Muslims being killed in sectarian and Islamic extremist violence in several countries...

...Or they want the Ajlaf Bengali youth (whose life doesn't matter to these hate filled zombies, only their own impotence does) to die wretched deaths fighting others' civil wars because of their own sectarian hatreds.

So they turn their attention elsewhere.

And for such bigots from some countries, India is the obvious answer. Despite the fact that India allowed full religious and civil rights to Muslims despite the humongous treason witnessed during partition.

That is our Dharmic greatness. The greatness of our great tolerant civilization!

To these hate filled zombies, they know what they should expect.

And they wait for that day to come, a day that may or may not come ever.

But these zombies know what they deserve and should get...

And they shudder...
 
3. ASEAN nations such as Vietnam and Philippines who will go along with the Japanese plan, will be excluded from the ASEAN economic and infrastructure integration plan till they decide to end their support for the India-Japan axis plan and approach

3. Since Vietnam borders China, I believe it will be possible to persuade them using economic incentives and reaching some bilateral compromise about territorial issues
]
What do you mean ?? We dont need to go along with the Japanese plan, we just simply ally wt Russia to strengthen our army and we will conquer Thailand(maybe Singapore too) if China keep threatening us, to get bigger and stronger. Thats time, both Japan-China must bow down to us coz we hold their sea trade route from Kra cannal (Thailand) , Malacca strait to Hong Kong,Tokyo in our hands.

camranh1.jpg

Thats the way we go. We r strong enough to stand on our on foot :coffee:
 
What do you mean ?? We dont need to go along with the Japanese plan, we just simply ally wt Russia to strengthen our army and we will conquer Thailand(maybe Singapore too) to get bigger and stronger.

Thats the way we go. We r strong enough to stand on our on foot :coffee:

Mate, this is just a wet dream of someone with too much time to kill.

And too little to do...
 
Mate, this is just a wet dream of someone with too much time to kill.

And too little to do...

We attacked Thailand from 1979 to 1988, and if China didnt attack us in the North, then with Soviet's support we would conquer Thailand sucessfully already:coffee:

Thailand,Singapore have no chance to stand against Vn,thats the truth.
 
We attacked Thailand from 1979 to 1988, and if China didnt attack us in the North, then with Soviet's support we would conquer Thailand sucessfully already:coffee:

Thailand,Singapore have no chance to stand against Vn,thats the truth.

I meant the whole thread is a wet dream of someone. ;)
 
What do you mean ?? We dont need to go along with the Japanese plan, we just simply ally wt Russia to strengthen our army and we will conquer Thailand(maybe Singapore too) if China keep threatening us, to get bigger and stronger. Thats time, both Japan-China must bow down to us coz we hold their sea trade route from Kra cannal (Thailand) , Malacca strait to Hong Kong,Tokyo in our hands.

camranh1.jpg

Thats the way we go. We r strong enough to stand on our on foot :coffee:

Bro, in this age no one is going to conquer another country, its just not going to be worth it. But even if you did, unlikely as that may be, that still would not be enough to stand up to China.

Essentially, Japan is betting on the US supremacy on world stage and depending on US alliance, which makes it closer to other US allies such as Australia and now India is the latest country to join this alliance. I was hoping that Japan would continue on its earlier policy to seek closer economic and security relations with ASEAN, but with India's entrance in the game, their emphasis will now switch to India. China threatens Japan's security and China threatens India's security, so they found an enemy of their enemy as a friend. Why not Vietnam and Philippines, well, that is because you guys are not in the same weight category, while India has more than 5 or 6 times the population of Vietnam and Philippines combined. So US-Japan has been waiting for India's decision to join them for a while and India finally came out of indecision and decided to leave behind its policy of non-alignment. That is my reading of the situation. You can also read the articles in my previous post.

Because of this latest move in the region, the rest of us small countries in this region, I believe have not much of a choice left, but to accept China as the leading power who can balance this new situation.

For Vietnam and Philippines to seek support from the US-Japan-Australia-India so called Diamond alliance, a term coined by Shinzo Abe, will mean that they will use you to create disunity in the region. It may be ok for some time, but this kind of policy will backfire in the long run.

As for Russia, it is also getting closer to Japan, due to Japan's energy needs and to balance the threat it is facing from a rising China. Russia's Gazprom is interested to explore oil and gas near Japanese coast lines, and of course they want to supply gas to Japan and South Korea, to diversify their customer base and not just depend on China as the only customer in East Asia via pipe line.

China can by pass the shipping lane easily if there is any temporary blockade, but Chinese Navy will soon dominate in this region within 15-20 years and US will never agree to shipping lane blockade by any one:

se-asia2.png


I don't have all the answers bro, but I can only tell you how I see things from my own perspective. Bottom line, as I predicted from the beginning, you can never trust big countries, whether its India or China, they will look after their interest first, and that is only natural. I think Japan made a stupid move, but obviously I am just a nobody, who really cares how I think.
 
I think paranoia and hatred and irrational fear of "big" or "small" countries should not and can not drive any world order.

Bangladesh and Pakistan are both in the top 5 % of the largest countries in the world by population!

So should they be feared by the rest 95%?

What crap is this!

The world is more aligned or divided by cultural or religious or ethnic lines.

Size is a ridiculous parameter in this age or any age for any country or people to align with any unrelated country or people.
 
@Nihonjin1051 would Japan be interested in this ASEAN+ military alliance idea? ASEAN+ will potentially include ASEAN (10) + Japan + Korean peninsula + Bangladesh + Sri Lanka

The idea is that China is not interested to go for any European Union type idea with any of these nations above except Japan and Korean peninsula. But for the medium term, Japan and Korean peninsula would balance a rising China with an alliance with US/West/NATO. But US/West/NATO may not be interested to integrate non-western faraway Asian countries in their group because of ethnic and cultural difference, even though they are highly developed countries and societies.

So Japan and Korean peninsula are sought after by the Chinese for eventual assimilation in the long term, but that is exactly what Japan and Korean peninsula want to avoid. So in addition to the balancing weight US/West/NATO provide, ASEAN+ will provide an additional opportunity and balancing weight for both Japan and South Korea, if they can concentrate on this area and make it into a developed and integrated region. This does not mean that China will be excluded in the development/integration process at all, China will be investing and become a partner in this development/integration process as well, as it is China's backyard.

In the very long term after 15-20 years, when China reaches parity with the US, the Chinese will become much more active and have interventionist role in Asian and global affairs. But before we reach that stage, there is an opportunity for these countries to build mutual military alliance so that the team of nations within this security structure provides them with a large enough population and economy that can become a pole of its own in the future multi-polar world. This military alliance will provide each of its team members with sufficient weight when dealing much larger regional nations, such as China or India.

If you look at the beginning of the thread, this was the idea I started out with, but at later stages I kind of moved away from this idea. But with more and more information about regional countries as they become available with every passing day, it seems that this idea may be viable after all in the long term, specially after the latest moves made by Japan about changing its pacifist constitution.

Initially ASEAN+ may lean towards USA/West/NATO, but the challenge will be to develop and integrate this region, so that it can stand on its own feet and become independent of undue outside influence. This will depend on China, how much interest they take in helping this region to integrate and develop and thus help ASEAN+ become a more of an independent pole in future multi-polar world. But with or without Chinese help, the region may be able to unite and integrate for their own mutual interest.

Now how will this geopolitical alignment above affect the Muslim world. I think it will have tremendous effect. ASEAN+ can help the integration of several other Muslim regions in Asia and beyond. A South West Asian team is possible with 4 nations - Turkey, Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan. This team may eventually integrate further with Eurasian Economic Union led by Russia. In every region of the globe, small nations I believe are vulnerable to too much outside influence from larger nations who become global power and establish their regional and global hegemony. I describe these phenomenon here:
kalu_miah's new world order, a road map for the future

Specifically for Western Eurasia, I discuss the geopolitics of this region here:
Geopolitics of Eurasia+ region

As for Arab region of the world and Africa my ideas are described here:
Geopolitics of GCC+ region
Geopolitics of African Union

Japan and South Korea both are highly industrialized countries, where Japan has a much longer and a more mature history as an advanced industrial nation. What both lack is population and resources. By becoming team members with ASEAN+, it will mean that both will be in a privileged position to play roles in integration of Eurasia+ (southern and northern parts), GCC+, Arab League and African union. Already Japan and South Korea both have demonstrated their open mind about taking in Muslim immigrants as migrant workers in their nation and making them their citizens many of whom have married among local population. Today tens of thousands of such Muslim families live in both of these countries as productive citizens and enjoy all freedoms and rights. With this new team building effort in above future regional unions or military alliances, if both nations show themselves as trusted development partner as team managers, then they will win the trust of vast populations in these regions.

Essentially the idea is not to accept the future of the world as a bipolar or tripolar international order, rather work towards a truely viable multi-polar world, where there are multiple poles:
- West
- China
- India
- ASEAN+
- Eurasia+
- African Union or parts of it (Arab League, Muslim Subsaharan Africa, rest of Southern Africa)
- Latin American Union

@Indos @Battle of Bach Dang River
 
@kalu_miah

Military Alliance is quite impossible since Indonesia likes to be in a neutral position and doesn't want to be a follower of anybody and any power, and this political standing has been proven since our independence day. But, we can have a strategic Military cooperation that share sensitive technology like what Indonesia do with South Korea recently in developing jet fighter together.

In my opinion, If any nation or power wants to restrain China power in SEA, Today and in the future, the only option is only to strengthen Indonesia defense industry and help us to reach great power level. South Korea has done this (jet fighter, submarine, IFV), in other level there are quite good helps from Germany, France, Dutch, European countries (satellite, tank ammunition, propellant industry, aircraft industry, shipbuilding, etc). We also have a cooperation with Turkey in tank design.

Japan needs to consider the same......

Great power - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 
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@kalu_miah

Military Alliance is quite impossible since Indonesia likes to be in a neutral position and doesn't want to be a follower of anybody and any power, and this political standing has been proven since our independence day. But, we can have a strategic Military cooperation that share sensitive technology like what Indonesia do with South Korea recently in developing jet fighter together.

In my opinion, If any nation or power wants to restrain China power in SEA, Today and in the future, the only option is only to strengthen Indonesia defense industry and help us to reach great power level. South Korea has done this (jet fighter, submarine, IFV), in other level there are quite good helps from Germany, France, Dutch, European countries (satellite, tank ammunition, propellant industry, aircraft industry, shipbuilding, etc). We also have a cooperation with Turkey in tank design.

Japan needs to consider the same......

Great power - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The SE Asian countries other than Indonesia are traditionally China's tributary state whereby China would like them to align to China, if China ever emerge.

China’s Monroe Doctrine | The Diplomat

I think SE Asian country from Thailand onwards may become something like a China sphere, while Indonesia, if she ever emerge as a strong nation will be able to take Malaysia, Papua., Timor and Solomons Island into her sphere of influence.

Philippines and Singapore are wild cards.
 

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