Game over

[fatman17]

the energy crisis issue is very complex - if we move away from the 'usual blame game' syndrome then we need to know - what can be done to migitate this crisis which is moving in the wrong directions, resulting in devestating effects on the economy and security of the country.

Hydel Power - Pakistan's water reserves are just 30 days as compared to other countries like Australia, S/Africa, Brazil, China and the US where water reserves are 90 days - 120 days, meaning they have enough 'Dams' to provide irrigation as well as hydel power generation (which is a 'cheap' by-product)

so now this means that we as a nation have to take our collectives 'heads out of the sand' and decide immediately to build more dams in the medium (5 years) and long term (10+ years). so kalabagh, basha, daimer dams need to be built immediately (start the process - enough procastination has taken place)

hydel power will cost you anywhere from Rs, 1.75/kw to Rs, 2,5/kw even after 10 years with the least burden on the consumer (we the people) - yes initial investment is high like any other project - issue here is can we convince our friends and IFC's to invest.

coming to the current crisis of why we r not able to generate power from the 20,000MW installed capacity and only generating about 7,000MW (and reducing)
the issue here is the retirement of the 'circular debt' which is about Rs, 250 billion.
if the distributor (wapda/pepco/kapco/kesc etc) dont pay back the IPP's for electricity purchased by them, then how can the IPP's pay the oil companies for oil purchased to generate electricity, then if the oil companies dont get their money, they cannot pay the refineries and they cannot pay the exporters and so on - this is where the GoP comes in - the distributor (wapda/kapco/pepco/kesc etc) are govt owned, so it is the 'in-action' on behalf the GoP (as confirmed by the IMF in the Pakistan Country report) which has led to this crisis - the system is 'jammed' until this circular debt is reduced.

as compared to hydel power, IPP power costs Rs, 6-8/kw so it is expensive as compared to hydel and the burden falls on the consumer (and one has witnessed the rise in the utility bills) compounded by the rise in the cost of international oil prices.

thirdly the 'ill-conceived' plan of RPPs (rental) where the cost of generating power will be around Rs, 13/KW - double of the IPPs rate and thus sending the cost of electricity spirralling out of control for the consumer. - further the 'investors' have now shown their 'reservations' about investing in our country due to the security issue so we really dont know when these 'obsolete' plants come on line.

and lastly the GoP does not have the money to continue to pay 'subsidies' to the power sector to 'control' the cost for the end-user. already in Jan-2010 there is a 13% rise in the electricity bills and further increases are due in June and August (dictat of the IMF, which the GoP has agreed to get the loans).

so if the GoP 'in-action' continues, then the security and economic well-being of the country is in peril - and the 'end game' is opon us.

May Allah Save Us from these Carpet-beggars!!!

 

[S-2]

Hydro not started now likely won't come on-line for five to ten years assuming the first brick is laid today.

"further the 'investors' have now shown their 'reservations' about investing in our country due to the security issue..."

Lot of folks here wailing about the failure of the west to invest and the cycle of aid that is the supposed result of such. Perhaps but private investment entails risk analysis and shareholder satisfaction on ROI and therein continues to lie the problem.

Core issues of security and basic infrastructure are necessary to attract, generally, FDI. Whether those in the energy sectors or hotels in SWAT, core infrastructure issues must be overcome. Those issues are usually so macro and benefit so many elements that they are logical and natural functions of the state.

In that case state to state aid is entirely appropriate and isn't putting the cart before the horse.

Good read.

Thanks.

 

[illuminatus]

The PPP cannot run a candy store let alone Pakistan. It's the inept GoP that has always been the root cause of most problems. The energy crisis can be solved in an instant. The government has all the wrong priorities. Instead of solving major crisis these people are too busy looting the wealth of the nation. The people chose PPP and they'll have to live with the consequences.

 

[graphican]

Sir , This hell is the democratic government of Pakistan.

Blame this government for the mismanagement but not democracy. Democracy is "will of the majority represented by people of the land". Neither these morons holding the top chairs of the country are supported by countrymen nor they represent the national interest. If democracy is not the answer, dictatorship is equally not. Let there be khalafat then.

 

[SSGPA1]

so now this means that we as a nation have to take our collectives 'heads out of the sand' and decide immediately to build more dams in the medium (5 years) and long term (10+ years). so kalabagh, basha, daimer dams need to be built immediately (start the process - enough procastination has taken place)

That is never going to happen unless we reach the depth of hell. That may help people to overcome the differences over KB dam and other dams.

option 2: People need to come out on streets all over Pakistan in peaceful protests but that is not going to happen either because NS is playing freindly opposition.

 

[TruthSeeker]

That is never going to happen unless we reach the depth of hell. That may help people to overcome the differences over KB dam and other dams.

Just so you know, you have to watch out for the environmentalist elites who will stymie any energy generation project (except maybe wind and solar) on a whole variety of grounds, mostly anti-human and specious. We here in the USA are tearing down dams that generate hydroelectric power (renewable energy, no less!) or provide irrigation waters because they interfere with fish populations. So, as you push ahead, as you should, for enough per capita energy to prosper, beware of letting enviro-babble gain political power with your Western-oriented elites.

 

[BATMAN]

^^**** the fish....
If some one has notice our govt. ministers quote india in their discussions but whay they never quote that indian is building water dams on Pakistani water?

The best solution for Pakistan is to go all out hydal and alone hydal can solve the whole crisis.

BTW.... can you please explain how the hell fish is troubled with water reservoirs?

 

[SSGPA1]

Just so you know, you have to watch out for the environmentalist elites who will stymie any energy generation project (except maybe wind and solar) on a whole variety of grounds, mostly anti-human and specious. We here in the USA are tearing down dams that generate hydroelectric power (renewable energy, no less!) or provide irrigation waters because they interfere with fish populations. So, as you push ahead, as you should, for enough per capita energy to prosper, beware of letting enviro-babble gain political power with your Western-oriented elites.

Well issue in USA is that tearing down dams and building new ones will create jobs and commissions for evveyone involved so these enviors actually come in handy for everyone.

Pakistan is a different ball game because the issue is of survival of the country. During Musharraf regime a lot of ground work was completed on KB dam so hopefully it will not be an issue to start work again.

 

[S-2]

"BTW.... can you please explain how the hell fish is troubled with water reservoirs?"

Great example. Glen Canyon Dam on the Colorado River-

U.S. Geological Survey Newsroom-April 27, 2009



Damming the Colorado river was a boon for southern California agriculture. Further, doing so created a world-class tailwater fishery for non-native rainbow and brown trout below the river by dramatically reducing the water temperature. Note where the gates release the water. Well below the waterline. As such the water is tremendously cold.

Not good, though, for the Humpback chub, a species of fish indigenous to the Colorado river. The trout have thrived to a great extent by feeding on these chubs while both the colder waters and irregular flows have stifled chub populations. In the process, quite a tourist industry has built around flyfishing the lower Colorado for trout.

USGS and others though are bent on returning the humpback chub to its former prominence in the river at the expense of downstream irrigation of crops and a thriving tourist industry built around exceptional trout fishing.

Go figure.

Thanks.

 

[TruthSeeker]

BTW.... can you please explain how the hell fish is troubled with water reservoirs?

These reservoirs collect water and divert it to irrigating farmers fields, instead of coursing through the rivers where the fish live. Secondly, in the northwest (Washington and Oregon States) the dams prevent fish from going upstream to spawn, thereby causing some fish populations to collapse.

 

[TruthSeeker]

Well issue in USA is that tearing down dams and building new ones will create jobs and commissions for evveyone involved so these enviors actually come in handy for everyone.

The USA governments are not approving the building of new irrigation or hydroelectric dams. So no new jobs are created. The enviro movement in the USA has the result of taking away many jobs with only some compensation in the form of new jobs in other occupations and industries. The net effect is the exportation of American jobs to developing nations that do not have or enforce as stringent environmental protection laws, like the PRC.

 

[S-2]

"...the dams prevent fish from going upstream to spawn, thereby causing some fish populations to collapse."

I think the correlation to industrial-sized trawlers from foreign fleets has as much or more to do with Salmon and steelhead populations collapsing in the last two decades.

The decline was there from the dams but that's been greatly exacerbated by the attacks on the fisheries, IMV, over the last two decades. These massive fleets move through a school of fish and create a black hole.

 

[Vassnti]

That unfortunately is the sad truth.
Democracy seems yet to be delivered from under feudal mind set
which dominates the political scene and thus the incapable management.

SEIKO:
You are right, presently half the problem is caused by an ill maintained
national grid.
At present engineers capable of fixing this are not hired, instead party workers have been gifted these jobs.
Engineers are working outside the country.


Yes coal is imported from Australia for the steel mill.
Apparently the local coal is not good enough ( which is not true)
however the import happens because some one makes a lot of money in shipping and import bills.

The majority of Pakistans coal is Lignite coal often refered to as brown coal.

Geological Survey of Pakistan

Lignite coal is mostly used for power generation, anthracite coal the one from australia also know as black coal is prefered for steel production because of its higher purity.

Though there are ways to improve lignite coal for other uses i am unsure of the economic viability of them.

http://idrinfo.idrc.ca/archive/ReportsINTRA/pdfs/v17n1e/111349.pdf

 

[Cheetah786]

LOL Every body blaming the present Government and democracy I love to join the party but problem is these clowns just came into power we have this problem for last 50 years.

 

[zagahaga]

arnt we ghetting a russian plant and chinese plant? please reply