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Game over

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I see a lot of people blaming the current government for the problem, but whose brilliant idea was it to use oil for power generation when there are huge reserves of coal lying around? Those power plants must be quite old and obviously not started by the "current democratic government" which seems to be everybody's favorite whipping boy.
 
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I see a lot of people blaming the current government for the problem, but whose brilliant idea was it to use oil for power generation when there are huge reserves of coal lying around? Those power plants must be quite old and obviously not started by the "current democratic government" which seems to be everybody's favorite whipping boy.

Yeah but those who started this are the same people, it was started in B.B's Last tenure, At the time, the consumer was getting 1 unit for 3 rupees or something, while the agreement was happened for 7 rupees / unit, which is why government was paying for the difference for so many years. Similarly in current situation when consumer was getting 1 unit for 8 rupees avg, they have done agreement on 10 rupees.

This GoP is totally corrupt, and bent to push pakistan towards darkness..

here many people said about nuclear power plants aren't feasible, i disagree with all of them as nuclear power plants are more feasible then any other, as it don't required any natural source, these are not dependent on the location and 1 nuclear plant can go up to 3k MW, which means with current setup of hydro power only 5 nuclear plants are enough for whole pakistan for around 10 years. Yes Hydropower is most cheapest among all, but nuclear power gives pretty comparative rates, baring any dependency on external natural resource.

The only poblem with Nuclear is the waste!
 
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Yeah but those who started this are the same people, it was started in B.B's Last tenure, At the time, the consumer was getting 1 unit for 3 rupees or something, while the agreement was happened for 7 rupees / unit, which is why government was paying for the difference for so many years. Similarly in current situation when consumer was getting 1 unit for 8 rupees avg, they have done agreement on 10 rupees.

This GoP is totally corrupt, and bent to push pakistan towards darkness..

here many people said about nuclear power plants aren't feasible, i disagree with all of them as nuclear power plants are more feasible then any other, as it don't required any natural source, these are not dependent on the location and 1 nuclear plant can go up to 3k MW, which means with current setup of hydro power only 5 nuclear plants are enough for whole pakistan for around 10 years. Yes Hydropower is most cheapest among all, but nuclear power gives pretty comparative rates, baring any dependency on external natural resource.

The only poblem with Nuclear is the waste!

Fracker you are very right indeed.
If Nuclear option is exercised for power generation that would
take the load OF our Water resources and let those be used for
agriculture and civic consumption.
This would further make the Nuclear option cost effective.

Just 3 problems with this plan

1. Supply of Uranium / Plutonium ?
2. Security
3. To find zones in Pakistan which are less prone to earthquakes.

All three of these can be solved, but require work nonetheless.
:pakistan:
 
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Electricity will cost at least twice as much in a year and a half. Invest in self sustainment. Solar panels on top of your house. The people running this country are bound to take us down with them while we keep debating over whos right and whos wrong. Most of the people posting here dont have an energy problem or not even in this country to begin with. Suggesting long term solutions or toppling a gangster sound real good in words but very soon it will be every man for himself in this country.
 
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If they have nothing to lose than we have run outtve any feasible solution to better this society. While we keep smiling and saying that God has been running this country for 60 years. I say God left this country around that time. If noone wants to think about ones own self I can understand. But what of their children who dont have a foriegn passport?
 
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ADB finds rental power deals faulty

By Khaleeq Kiani

Saturday, 30 Jan, 2010

According to the report, the third-party review by the ADB also highlighted that the current power crisis was largely a fuel crisis caused by increase in furnace oil prices and delays in finding a substitute for depleting domestic gas supplies.

ISLAMABAD: The government released on Friday the Asian Development Bank report on rental power projects (RPPs) which highlights major inconsistencies and weaknesses in the contracts, violation of procurement and regulatory procedures, lack of available capacity utilisation and up to 87 per cent increase in customer tariff in two years.

The Ministry of Water and Power, which released the report, has tried to challenge observations made in the report through an addendum, saying the ADB disregarded some of the losses the economy suffered because of loadshedding.

The report said the addition of even 14 RPPs would not eliminate the loadshedding. “Overall, rental service agreements are weak in their legal structure, do not balance the risk sharing between the seller and the buyer and have many inconsistencies.”

The ADB suggested that about 2,000MW of electricity could have been utilised from within the existing system through full-capacity utilisation (of 997MW closed plants) and energy conservation measures (1,300MW). The report said that RPPs would put an additional financial burden of up to Rs207 billion on the government.

The ADP did not clear eight RPPs on merit, as implied by certain quarters, but gave the go-head as a fait accompli because of already signed contract and payment of mobilisation advance.

The report said: “From customer perspective, under the no-RPP scenario, in fiscal 2011 they will face a tariff of Rs9.23 (from current Rs5.54), an increase of 67 per cent in two years. With 14 RPPs, tariff increases by 80 per cent to Rs9.96. In case of eight RPPs, the tariff increases by 75 per cent to Rs9.68. The low gas scenario is the worst from customer perspective as tariff in this case increases by 87 per cent to Rs10.33 with 14 RPPs.

“However, this scenario is based on exchange rate of Rs83.55 a dollar, fuel price of Rs44,818 per ton, gas price of Rs333 per mmbtu and if the government did not provide subsidy as committed with the International Monetary Fund.”

The report said that original RPPs were based on advance payment of seven per cent, but the post-bid addition of standby letters of credit (SBLC) changed the financial situation in favour of RPPs.

“Since RPPs are emergency measures where time is premium, it would have been prudent for the buyer to investigate the cost of confirmation before offering SBLC to the market and definitely before making down payment. This changed the situation and “weakened the government’s negotiating position with bidders and a new security package of 14 per cent advance down payment combined with an annual renewable GoP (government of Pakistan) guarantee to cover the buyers obligations, other than fuel payments which are covered under a separate SBLC was provided.”

The report said the provision of GoP guarantee and a high down payment-post bid was a major change under any prudent procurement guidelines as it changed the financial, equity and project risk profile in favour for RPPs. Had the revised arrangements been taken to the market, the government would have gotten better terms. “This, combined with the acceptance of unsolicited bids, diluted the transparency, competition and equal treatment that an international competitive bidding process is in intended to ensure.”

The ADB said that against National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) rules, generation companies had sought its approval of power procurement contracts with RPPs-post contract signing, “raising questions about the process”. The resolution of the SBLC issue contributed to delays and derailed a major objective to have rental power in place by the end of Dec 2009. “In fact no RPP has been commissioned to date”.

Two RPPs installed in 2006 had mostly remained off-line, the ADP said.

The report said that performance guarantees obtained from RPPs were not uniform, were lower than the standards and inadequate to cover penalties because these were charged against future payments. In the tariff setting too, the hands of Nepra were tied and infringed on its powers and jurisdiction.

“Contrary to the rules, Gencos (generation companies) did not obtain approval from Nepra of terms of the contract before signing. By applying for approval after signing a contract and when project is advanced it is forcing Nepra’s hand and also raises question of transparency, encroachment on Nepra’s mandate to ensure affordable and sustainable power supply.”

The report said about 997MW of installed IPPs’ unutilised capacity could be brought into the system that remained out of the system due to contractual and administrative reasons, while addition of energy-saver bulbs could also reduce loadshedding by 1,133MW. The two steps together could bring peak loadshedding to 850MW even without an RPP.

The report also revealed that rental tariff of 11 of 14 contracted RPPs ranged between 18 and 22.24 cents per unit, and one each of 15.60 cents, 9.5 cents and 8.5 cents per unit. The last three RPPs are based on gas and the others on furnace oil and hence could go up or down with fluctuation in oil prices.

“With a 14 per cent down payment and limited bank guarantee, major concern is that the RPP sponsor may abandon the project in the event that the plant runs into difficulties…In case for RPPs with five years contract, the sponsor would have recovered his investment in three years, he would have made comfortable return and still own the government part of the down payment. The seller could thus abandon the project rather than face penalties and the plant would not offer any collateral. It is noted that neither the request for proposal nor the rental agreement refers to the import policy order provisions on used/second-hand power plants.”

Credibility

The report said the credibility of the process also suffered because of inclusion of unsolicited proposals, especially based on gas because they were free to offer different fuels. However, to expect bidders to arrange for gas whose allocation is controlled and regulated by the government restricted competition. “If gas was available it should have been transparently included in invitations under the bidding. There is one unsolicited gas plant which has become effective.”

According to the report, the third-party review also highlighted the need to take an integrated look at the energy sector given that the current crisis to a large extent was fuel crisis caused by unexpected and unmitigated increase in furnace oil prices and delays in finding a substitute for depleting domestic gas supplies because gas shortage increased the cost of power and lowered efficiency and capacity for plants designed to run on gas. “The available gas needs to be optimised for maximum economic benefit.”

It said the report predominately relied on data and information provided by the government and its agencies and its findings were shared with the government during periodic reporting and consultation to confirm the direction of the study and facilitate early awareness and decision-making.
 
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One question - How is Pakistan on the wind energy front ? I think India is 5th or 4th in the world in wind power, are there any planned or existing wind energy initiatives in Pakistan as that could be a easy and cheap source for energy.
 
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‘No hydel power unit installed over 32 years’

* Qazalbash says Pakistan has massive generation capacity, but lacks infrastructure

By Zeeshan Javaid

ISLAMABAD: Three military dictators failed to install a single unit for hydel power generation, increasing the gap between demand and supply and leading to inflated rates, Planning Commission Energy Working Group Chairman Imtiaz Ali Qazalbash told Daily Times on Monday.

After a consultative workshop on ‘Medium Term Alternative and Renewable Energy Policy’, Qazalbash said while the country had the capacity to generate more than 56,000 megawatts through hydro projects, no new hydropower projects were installed over the last 32 years because of the apathetic attitude of governments and military dictators.

He said in addition to Kalabagh Dam, the government should pay special attention to other hydropower projects as well, especially Basho, Bunji and Dasu on Indus River.

Qazalbash expressed apprehensions over the high slab rates in the energy sector.

“Once again, Pakistan is faced with an energy crisis... this time more serious than ever. It is not only because of a shortage of generation capacity; it is also the crippling effect of oil prices on the economy... with indigenous resources such hydroelectricity, waterways and coal not being utilised,” according to him.

Qazalbash said that at the time of Independence, Pakistan had little electric power. He said power development started with the addition of the 20-megawatt Dargai Hydroelectric Power Station in 1954. The Warsak hydroelectric power station and the Piranghaib natural gas power station in Multan, both with a capacity of about 260 megawatts, were completed in 1960

Amazing - what a waste of 3 decades!
 
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