G20 Consequence: Will Pakistan Endup Being A Blip On The Map?

[Puffin]

G20 Consequence: Will Pakistan Endup Being A Blip On The Map?​

The significance of Pakistan for India lies in its connection to Central Asia, particularly for access to the region's oil, gas, and non-oil markets​

• Rahim Nasar

• Analysis, Main Slider

• September 16, 2023

SHARE:

During the G20 summit in New Delhi on September 10, 2023, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) announced signing more than 50 Memorandum of Understanding (MoUs) between Saudi Arabia and India. The MoUs aim to establish a new economic corridor to build railways, pipelines for the transmission of hydrogen and electricity, and ensure a major contribution to global energy security. The corridor will interconnect India, the Middle East, and Europe, thereby facilitating enhanced commercial trade among these regions.
On September 11, 2023, Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Salman made a state visit to India. He was accompanied by a sizable delegation comprising ministers and business representatives. The visit was concluded by signing more than 50 MoUs/agreements worth $100 billion with Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi, among which a comprehensive energy partnership received particular emphasis.
Being a member of the G20 group, Saudi Arabia occupies a substantial position within India's strategic outreach to the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region, alongside Turkey. Having the largest economy in the Middle Eastern World, Saudi Arabia plays a pivotal role in India's strategic considerations. In the fiscal year 2022-2023, bilateral trade between India and Saudi Arabia reached approximately $52.76 billion, with India experiencing a trade deficit of $31.31 billion due to imports amounting to $42.04 billion and exports totalling $10.73 billion.

It is utterly illogical to assume that India, Arab nations, Israel, and European countries, which have opposed China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), would rely on China for their own Belt and Road projects

Pakistani security and political analysts suggest that as Saudi Arabia is forging political and economic ties with Israel through a proposed economic corridor linking India with the entire Middle East, Pakistan should reassess its relationship with India for economic reasons and regional connectivity. They propose that Pakistan should pave the way for India to connect with the Arab nations through Gwadar port.


G20 Summit In India: The View From Pakistan


The regional geo-strategic and geo-economic realities are different. Saudi Arabia and Israel do not need Pakistan in either case. Additionally, India possesses far better ports in the Arabian Sea compared to Gwadar for connecting with the Middle Eastern world. India has even inked agreements with the United States for a strategic partnership to provide shipbuilding facilities and oil exchange to the US at its ports. PM Modi and President Biden have also hailed the signing of agreements to cooperate in the fields of Quantum Economic Development, Telecommunications, Space Technology, Semiconductor Supply Chain, and Artificial Intelligence.
Notwithstanding these facts, Pakistan has almost ceded control of Gwadar port to China, thereby leaving Pakistan devoid of authority over the port. It is utterly illogical to assume that India, Arab nations, Israel, and European countries, which have opposed China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), would rely on China for their own Belt and Road projects. Furthermore, it would be irrational for China to relinquish its strategic port to India, Israel, and Europe for their economic and political interests.
The significance of Pakistan for India lies in its connection to Central Asia, particularly for access to the region's oil, gas, and non-oil markets. India's route to Central Asia entails linking with Iran through a pipeline and subsequently traversing Afghanistan. Pakistan falls on this route. However, following Russia's cessation of gas supply to Europe, India has realized that it no longer necessitates Pakistan. India withdrew from the gas pipeline project due to American sanctions on Iran, and the Pakistan-Iran project is also on hold. Iran is even threatening Pakistan with an $18 billion penalty if it fails to complete the project.
Currently, India aligns itself with the West, where Iran is viewed as an adversary rather than a friend. Other Central Asian countries still maintain their ties with Russia, but they are gradually succumbing to China's influence. Consequently, if geopolitical and geo-strategic scenarios are changed in the future, India will not rely on Central Asia, at least not via Pakistan but Iran. Additionally, India possesses its own port, Chahbahar, for trade with Afghanistan and the CARs. India also acknowledges that the ongoing conflict between the Taliban and Pakistan has disrupted trade routes and commerce with Afghanistan. Looking for alternate routes becomes essential for India.


Pakistan's Reckoning After The G20 Summit


During the fiscal year of 2019-2020, the trade volume between Pakistan and Afghanistan was around $4 billion, but this figure has decreased to $1 billion in subsequent years. Despite its dire economic situation, Pakistan has kept its business channels closed and is willing to bear the loss of the remaining $3 billion. It appears that the relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan is deteriorating. The supply of coal from Afghanistan, vital for Pakistan's power plants, has also been disturbed after heavy taxes were imposed on it by the Afghan Taliban. It has further impeded Pakistan's capacity to generate affordable electricity.

Today's Taliban are not Pakistan's Frankensteins, rather they are rulers of Afghanistan. Their current role in governance is categorically distinct from their previous role

Moreover, Pakistan has blocked trade and business routes to Afghanistan to exert pressure on the Taliban government to act against the Pakistani Taliban (TTP). Compliance by the Taliban could lead to internal rebellion and the collapse of their own government. However, these sanctions imposed by Pakistan will impact the remaining $1.4 billion in trade. If the situation remains the same, India and Iran, through Chahbahar, are likely to meet Afghanistan's needs instead.
Another consequence of these actions is that the interim Afghan Taliban government may gravitate towards India and Iran, distancing itself from Pakistan.
The untoward economic and security developments between the two immediate neighbours favour none. To add more, the Pakistani Taliban's attacks on border areas and their attempted occupation of certain territories have deeply alarmed the Pakistani government and military, prompting them to reconsider their strategy towards Afghanistan and combatting militants in the borderlands.


India At The G20: Is The Glitter Just Surface Deep?


Significant changes have already occurred in Afghanistan. This is not the Afghanistan of the 1990s. The polarization has not only affected the Afghan Taliban on ideological grounds but has also compelled ordinary Afghans to rethink in liberal terms. Religious fanaticism no longer holds sway in Afghanistan. Today's Taliban are not Pakistan's Frankensteins, rather they are rulers of Afghanistan. Their current role in governance is categorically distinct from their previous role, which brought Afghanistan to the brink of complete disaster.
Afghans also expect their government to deliver necessary services and functions. Similarly, the character of the Taliban has evolved over the past 20 years of the US presence in Afghanistan. They are reimagining the principles of governance and demonstrating a far better understanding of how to handle the crisis to ensure stability and security.
In the evolving regional geopolitical and geo-strategic landscape, Pakistan must reassess its political and economic policies accordingly. Losing Afghanistan and Iran means losing economic, political, and security interests in the region. Failure to implement effective policies and pursue goals will lead the country towards isolation and confront it with vibrant economic and political challenges.
TAGS: G20, Pakistan, Afghanistan. India, Saudi Arabia, Israel
SHARE:

https://thefridaytimes.com/contributor/rahim-nasar

Rahim Nasar​

​

Rahim Nasar is an Islamabad-based security and political analyst. He tweets @RahimNasari

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

Pak can never a dim blip. It was, is, and will be a HUUUGEE red pulsating bright blip with deafening alarm sound sirening all around. Pak is now passing through the lowest point, yet her Deep State is:

• Increasing the nuclear warheads arsenal by a couple of dozens per year
• Aligning with the Turkish military industrial complex
• Giving a free passage to China to let her circumvent the Western siege in the high seas
• Providing tons of ammunition to Ukraine via the West
• Convincing the US Deep State about her being the key to the access to the Central Asia following the fall of Kabul
• Establishing an air superiority over Afganistan to kill the Hindutva proxies at will and with impunity
• Maintaining the largest "Afgan recreational stuffs (a must to cut the nights short for the Whitemen)" cartel under the auspices of the CIA
• Etc.

 

[protean]

Pak can never a dim blip. It was, is, and will be a red pulsating bright blip with alarm sound sirening around. Pak is now passing through the lowest point, yet:

• Increasing nuclear arsenal by a couple pf dozens per year
• Giving a passage to China to circumvent the Western siege in the high seas
• Providing tons of ammunition to Ukraine via the West
• Establishing an air superiority over Afganistan to kill the Hindutva proxies at will and impunity
• Etc.

Let me what you smoke for getting this delusional?

 

[Puffin]

Pak can never a dim blip. It was, is, and will be a red pulsating bright blip with alarm sound sirening around. Pak is now passing through the lowest point, yet:

• Increasing nuclear arsenal by a couple pf dozens per year

India's fast breeder and locally designed and made nuclear power stations have come ON STREAM. We can outpace construction of nuclear weapons at 50 times the rate Pakistan could ever manage. IF WE SO CHOOSE. We don't because after a minimum deterrent any more is WASTEFUL

• Giving a passage to China to circumvent the Western siege in the high seas

Tell me the tonnage that is weekly being shipped or give me its rough value ????

• Providing tons of ammunition to Ukraine via the West

That's on you lot. Remember the times you have celebrated earning quick money by taking sides and spending generations regretting those mercenary instincts

• Establishing an air superiority over Afganistan to kill the Hindutva proxies at will and impunity
• Etc.

IF you think those are Hindutva proxies than all of India says good luck to you. Bomb away to your hearts desire, no Indian is going to naysay

 

[maverick1977]

G20 Consequence: Will Pakistan Endup Being A Blip On The Map?​

The significance of Pakistan for India lies in its connection to Central Asia, particularly for access to the region's oil, gas, and non-oil markets​

• Rahim Nasar
• Analysis, Main Slider
• September 16, 2023

SHARE:

During the G20 summit in New Delhi on September 10, 2023, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) announced signing more than 50 Memorandum of Understanding (MoUs) between Saudi Arabia and India. The MoUs aim to establish a new economic corridor to build railways, pipelines for the transmission of hydrogen and electricity, and ensure a major contribution to global energy security. The corridor will interconnect India, the Middle East, and Europe, thereby facilitating enhanced commercial trade among these regions.
On September 11, 2023, Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Salman made a state visit to India. He was accompanied by a sizable delegation comprising ministers and business representatives. The visit was concluded by signing more than 50 MoUs/agreements worth $100 billion with Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi, among which a comprehensive energy partnership received particular emphasis.
Being a member of the G20 group, Saudi Arabia occupies a substantial position within India's strategic outreach to the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region, alongside Turkey. Having the largest economy in the Middle Eastern World, Saudi Arabia plays a pivotal role in India's strategic considerations. In the fiscal year 2022-2023, bilateral trade between India and Saudi Arabia reached approximately $52.76 billion, with India experiencing a trade deficit of $31.31 billion due to imports amounting to $42.04 billion and exports totalling $10.73 billion.

Pakistani security and political analysts suggest that as Saudi Arabia is forging political and economic ties with Israel through a proposed economic corridor linking India with the entire Middle East, Pakistan should reassess its relationship with India for economic reasons and regional connectivity. They propose that Pakistan should pave the way for India to connect with the Arab nations through Gwadar port.


G20 Summit In India: The View From Pakistan


The regional geo-strategic and geo-economic realities are different. Saudi Arabia and Israel do not need Pakistan in either case. Additionally, India possesses far better ports in the Arabian Sea compared to Gwadar for connecting with the Middle Eastern world. India has even inked agreements with the United States for a strategic partnership to provide shipbuilding facilities and oil exchange to the US at its ports. PM Modi and President Biden have also hailed the signing of agreements to cooperate in the fields of Quantum Economic Development, Telecommunications, Space Technology, Semiconductor Supply Chain, and Artificial Intelligence.
Notwithstanding these facts, Pakistan has almost ceded control of Gwadar port to China, thereby leaving Pakistan devoid of authority over the port. It is utterly illogical to assume that India, Arab nations, Israel, and European countries, which have opposed China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), would rely on China for their own Belt and Road projects. Furthermore, it would be irrational for China to relinquish its strategic port to India, Israel, and Europe for their economic and political interests.
The significance of Pakistan for India lies in its connection to Central Asia, particularly for access to the region's oil, gas, and non-oil markets. India's route to Central Asia entails linking with Iran through a pipeline and subsequently traversing Afghanistan. Pakistan falls on this route. However, following Russia's cessation of gas supply to Europe, India has realized that it no longer necessitates Pakistan. India withdrew from the gas pipeline project due to American sanctions on Iran, and the Pakistan-Iran project is also on hold. Iran is even threatening Pakistan with an $18 billion penalty if it fails to complete the project.
Currently, India aligns itself with the West, where Iran is viewed as an adversary rather than a friend. Other Central Asian countries still maintain their ties with Russia, but they are gradually succumbing to China's influence. Consequently, if geopolitical and geo-strategic scenarios are changed in the future, India will not rely on Central Asia, at least not via Pakistan but Iran. Additionally, India possesses its own port, Chahbahar, for trade with Afghanistan and the CARs. India also acknowledges that the ongoing conflict between the Taliban and Pakistan has disrupted trade routes and commerce with Afghanistan. Looking for alternate routes becomes essential for India.


Pakistan's Reckoning After The G20 Summit


During the fiscal year of 2019-2020, the trade volume between Pakistan and Afghanistan was around $4 billion, but this figure has decreased to $1 billion in subsequent years. Despite its dire economic situation, Pakistan has kept its business channels closed and is willing to bear the loss of the remaining $3 billion. It appears that the relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan is deteriorating. The supply of coal from Afghanistan, vital for Pakistan's power plants, has also been disturbed after heavy taxes were imposed on it by the Afghan Taliban. It has further impeded Pakistan's capacity to generate affordable electricity.

Moreover, Pakistan has blocked trade and business routes to Afghanistan to exert pressure on the Taliban government to act against the Pakistani Taliban (TTP). Compliance by the Taliban could lead to internal rebellion and the collapse of their own government. However, these sanctions imposed by Pakistan will impact the remaining $1.4 billion in trade. If the situation remains the same, India and Iran, through Chahbahar, are likely to meet Afghanistan's needs instead.
Another consequence of these actions is that the interim Afghan Taliban government may gravitate towards India and Iran, distancing itself from Pakistan.
The untoward economic and security developments between the two immediate neighbours favour none. To add more, the Pakistani Taliban's attacks on border areas and their attempted occupation of certain territories have deeply alarmed the Pakistani government and military, prompting them to reconsider their strategy towards Afghanistan and combatting militants in the borderlands.


India At The G20: Is The Glitter Just Surface Deep?


Significant changes have already occurred in Afghanistan. This is not the Afghanistan of the 1990s. The polarization has not only affected the Afghan Taliban on ideological grounds but has also compelled ordinary Afghans to rethink in liberal terms. Religious fanaticism no longer holds sway in Afghanistan. Today's Taliban are not Pakistan's Frankensteins, rather they are rulers of Afghanistan. Their current role in governance is categorically distinct from their previous role, which brought Afghanistan to the brink of complete disaster.
Afghans also expect their government to deliver necessary services and functions. Similarly, the character of the Taliban has evolved over the past 20 years of the US presence in Afghanistan. They are reimagining the principles of governance and demonstrating a far better understanding of how to handle the crisis to ensure stability and security.
In the evolving regional geopolitical and geo-strategic landscape, Pakistan must reassess its political and economic policies accordingly. Losing Afghanistan and Iran means losing economic, political, and security interests in the region. Failure to implement effective policies and pursue goals will lead the country towards isolation and confront it with vibrant economic and political challenges.
TAGS: G20, Pakistan, Afghanistan. India, Saudi Arabia, Israel
SHARE:

https://thefridaytimes.com/contributor/rahim-nasar

Rahim Nasar​

​

Rahim Nasar is an Islamabad-based security and political analyst. He tweets @RahimNasari

Pakistan was always a blip, Imran was the only person who raised your stature… it will be minuscule to be ever noticed now

 

[SaadH]

What's with pajeets given free reign to open threads after threads $hitting on Pakistan at a time when the country has hit a new low.

Are mods using the same business model as Pakistani youtubers?

 

[ThunderCat]

G20 must be source of "pride" for India. Demolishing poor people's homes to gave a fake impression to visiting delegates. No shame.

 

[DGMO]

I don't think the question is 'will', as we're already a blip thanks to the khaki criminals in charge.

In geopolitics or business, to maintain a position of importance, it comes down to a simple question: what do you have to offer?

And right now, from Pakistan's point of view, it's pretty much zero on most fronts.

 

[epebble]

G20 Consequence: Will Pakistan Endup Being A Blip On The Map?​

The significance of Pakistan for India lies in its connection to Central Asia, particularly for access to the region's oil, gas, and non-oil markets​

• Rahim Nasar
• Analysis, Main Slider
• September 16, 2023

SHARE:

During the G20 summit in New Delhi on September 10, 2023, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) announced signing more than 50 Memorandum of Understanding (MoUs) between Saudi Arabia and India. The MoUs aim to establish a new economic corridor to build railways, pipelines for the transmission of hydrogen and electricity, and ensure a major contribution to global energy security. The corridor will interconnect India, the Middle East, and Europe, thereby facilitating enhanced commercial trade among these regions.
On September 11, 2023, Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Salman made a state visit to India. He was accompanied by a sizable delegation comprising ministers and business representatives. The visit was concluded by signing more than 50 MoUs/agreements worth $100 billion with Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi, among which a comprehensive energy partnership received particular emphasis.
Being a member of the G20 group, Saudi Arabia occupies a substantial position within India's strategic outreach to the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region, alongside Turkey. Having the largest economy in the Middle Eastern World, Saudi Arabia plays a pivotal role in India's strategic considerations. In the fiscal year 2022-2023, bilateral trade between India and Saudi Arabia reached approximately $52.76 billion, with India experiencing a trade deficit of $31.31 billion due to imports amounting to $42.04 billion and exports totalling $10.73 billion.

Pakistani security and political analysts suggest that as Saudi Arabia is forging political and economic ties with Israel through a proposed economic corridor linking India with the entire Middle East, Pakistan should reassess its relationship with India for economic reasons and regional connectivity. They propose that Pakistan should pave the way for India to connect with the Arab nations through Gwadar port.


G20 Summit In India: The View From Pakistan


The regional geo-strategic and geo-economic realities are different. Saudi Arabia and Israel do not need Pakistan in either case. Additionally, India possesses far better ports in the Arabian Sea compared to Gwadar for connecting with the Middle Eastern world. India has even inked agreements with the United States for a strategic partnership to provide shipbuilding facilities and oil exchange to the US at its ports. PM Modi and President Biden have also hailed the signing of agreements to cooperate in the fields of Quantum Economic Development, Telecommunications, Space Technology, Semiconductor Supply Chain, and Artificial Intelligence.
Notwithstanding these facts, Pakistan has almost ceded control of Gwadar port to China, thereby leaving Pakistan devoid of authority over the port. It is utterly illogical to assume that India, Arab nations, Israel, and European countries, which have opposed China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), would rely on China for their own Belt and Road projects. Furthermore, it would be irrational for China to relinquish its strategic port to India, Israel, and Europe for their economic and political interests.
The significance of Pakistan for India lies in its connection to Central Asia, particularly for access to the region's oil, gas, and non-oil markets. India's route to Central Asia entails linking with Iran through a pipeline and subsequently traversing Afghanistan. Pakistan falls on this route. However, following Russia's cessation of gas supply to Europe, India has realized that it no longer necessitates Pakistan. India withdrew from the gas pipeline project due to American sanctions on Iran, and the Pakistan-Iran project is also on hold. Iran is even threatening Pakistan with an $18 billion penalty if it fails to complete the project.
Currently, India aligns itself with the West, where Iran is viewed as an adversary rather than a friend. Other Central Asian countries still maintain their ties with Russia, but they are gradually succumbing to China's influence. Consequently, if geopolitical and geo-strategic scenarios are changed in the future, India will not rely on Central Asia, at least not via Pakistan but Iran. Additionally, India possesses its own port, Chahbahar, for trade with Afghanistan and the CARs. India also acknowledges that the ongoing conflict between the Taliban and Pakistan has disrupted trade routes and commerce with Afghanistan. Looking for alternate routes becomes essential for India.


Pakistan's Reckoning After The G20 Summit


During the fiscal year of 2019-2020, the trade volume between Pakistan and Afghanistan was around $4 billion, but this figure has decreased to $1 billion in subsequent years. Despite its dire economic situation, Pakistan has kept its business channels closed and is willing to bear the loss of the remaining $3 billion. It appears that the relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan is deteriorating. The supply of coal from Afghanistan, vital for Pakistan's power plants, has also been disturbed after heavy taxes were imposed on it by the Afghan Taliban. It has further impeded Pakistan's capacity to generate affordable electricity.

Moreover, Pakistan has blocked trade and business routes to Afghanistan to exert pressure on the Taliban government to act against the Pakistani Taliban (TTP). Compliance by the Taliban could lead to internal rebellion and the collapse of their own government. However, these sanctions imposed by Pakistan will impact the remaining $1.4 billion in trade. If the situation remains the same, India and Iran, through Chahbahar, are likely to meet Afghanistan's needs instead.
Another consequence of these actions is that the interim Afghan Taliban government may gravitate towards India and Iran, distancing itself from Pakistan.
The untoward economic and security developments between the two immediate neighbours favour none. To add more, the Pakistani Taliban's attacks on border areas and their attempted occupation of certain territories have deeply alarmed the Pakistani government and military, prompting them to reconsider their strategy towards Afghanistan and combatting militants in the borderlands.


India At The G20: Is The Glitter Just Surface Deep?


Significant changes have already occurred in Afghanistan. This is not the Afghanistan of the 1990s. The polarization has not only affected the Afghan Taliban on ideological grounds but has also compelled ordinary Afghans to rethink in liberal terms. Religious fanaticism no longer holds sway in Afghanistan. Today's Taliban are not Pakistan's Frankensteins, rather they are rulers of Afghanistan. Their current role in governance is categorically distinct from their previous role, which brought Afghanistan to the brink of complete disaster.
Afghans also expect their government to deliver necessary services and functions. Similarly, the character of the Taliban has evolved over the past 20 years of the US presence in Afghanistan. They are reimagining the principles of governance and demonstrating a far better understanding of how to handle the crisis to ensure stability and security.
In the evolving regional geopolitical and geo-strategic landscape, Pakistan must reassess its political and economic policies accordingly. Losing Afghanistan and Iran means losing economic, political, and security interests in the region. Failure to implement effective policies and pursue goals will lead the country towards isolation and confront it with vibrant economic and political challenges.
TAGS: G20, Pakistan, Afghanistan. India, Saudi Arabia, Israel
SHARE:

https://thefridaytimes.com/contributor/rahim-nasar

Rahim Nasar​

​

Rahim Nasar is an Islamabad-based security and political analyst. He tweets @RahimNasari

Lot of Hot Air. Pakistan has more urgent things to work on before bothering with the debating club called G20. What harm came upon any country that is a "Blip on the Map"?

e.g.

Monaco

Liechtenstein

Luxembourg

Bermuda

Singapore

Isle of Man

Cayman Islands

Qatar

 

[HerbertPervert]

Pakistan may have its downs that are self-made, but if there is one certainty, it's that it will always be a significant power on the global stage. It's nuclear-armed, has a significantly large and battle-hardened military, and a powerful intelligence network. It has fought multiple wars, alone, against a far larger neighbor.

While these countries maybe economic powerhouses, they turn into jelly when it really matters. They fear conflict and can't face it without allies. Saudi couldn't defeat Houthis and tried to involve allies.

Japan craps its pants whenever North Korea tests weapons and whenever China does naval exercises. Japan's gameplan is to hold as many press conferences with them holding hands with Americans to show unity and the strength of their alliance as deterrence.

Where is the economic might of these countries when it really matters? G20 is just a term invented to make these countries feel special. That's something Indians love doing... feeling special. They also suffer from inferiority complex towards Pakistan for reasons not yet known to science. So they keep producing articles trashing Pakistan.

 

[FuturePAF]

The sub-title lays it out, Pakistan (and Afghanistan) is the only land route to Central Asia outside of China, Iran, and Russia.

Pakistan needs to built the Trans-Afghan railway ASAP, and its geo-strategic relevance will spring back.

If it seriously gets it economic house in order, it has the potential for fast grow, because it has a lot of catch up in, and can leapfrog certain steps to modern standards, such as in agriculture, rapidly increasing yields year on year, to reach global norms.

I could go on, but it all comes down to management, and opening up the market to entrepreneurs that pay their fair share of taxes, to pay for needed infrastructure and social services.

All these improvements will increase employment and attract foreign ventures, increasing Pakistan’s relevance due to its large population.

Pakistan sits next to much larger economies and higher GDP per capita, good management and foreign relations can use that as a way to drive growth.

 

[my2cents]

Convincing the US Deep State about her being the key to the access to the Central Asia following the fall of Kabul

First you guys have to realize that potential. You have lost the golden opportunity to make money by giving passage to central Asia. Your hatred for India and Afghanistan is becoming an obstacle for your progress.

 

[Cash GK]

G20 Consequence: Will Pakistan Endup Being A Blip On The Map?​

The significance of Pakistan for India lies in its connection to Central Asia, particularly for access to the region's oil, gas, and non-oil markets​

• Rahim Nasar
• Analysis, Main Slider
• September 16, 2023

SHARE:

During the G20 summit in New Delhi on September 10, 2023, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) announced signing more than 50 Memorandum of Understanding (MoUs) between Saudi Arabia and India. The MoUs aim to establish a new economic corridor to build railways, pipelines for the transmission of hydrogen and electricity, and ensure a major contribution to global energy security. The corridor will interconnect India, the Middle East, and Europe, thereby facilitating enhanced commercial trade among these regions.
On September 11, 2023, Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Salman made a state visit to India. He was accompanied by a sizable delegation comprising ministers and business representatives. The visit was concluded by signing more than 50 MoUs/agreements worth $100 billion with Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi, among which a comprehensive energy partnership received particular emphasis.
Being a member of the G20 group, Saudi Arabia occupies a substantial position within India's strategic outreach to the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region, alongside Turkey. Having the largest economy in the Middle Eastern World, Saudi Arabia plays a pivotal role in India's strategic considerations. In the fiscal year 2022-2023, bilateral trade between India and Saudi Arabia reached approximately $52.76 billion, with India experiencing a trade deficit of $31.31 billion due to imports amounting to $42.04 billion and exports totalling $10.73 billion.

Pakistani security and political analysts suggest that as Saudi Arabia is forging political and economic ties with Israel through a proposed economic corridor linking India with the entire Middle East, Pakistan should reassess its relationship with India for economic reasons and regional connectivity. They propose that Pakistan should pave the way for India to connect with the Arab nations through Gwadar port.


G20 Summit In India: The View From Pakistan


The regional geo-strategic and geo-economic realities are different. Saudi Arabia and Israel do not need Pakistan in either case. Additionally, India possesses far better ports in the Arabian Sea compared to Gwadar for connecting with the Middle Eastern world. India has even inked agreements with the United States for a strategic partnership to provide shipbuilding facilities and oil exchange to the US at its ports. PM Modi and President Biden have also hailed the signing of agreements to cooperate in the fields of Quantum Economic Development, Telecommunications, Space Technology, Semiconductor Supply Chain, and Artificial Intelligence.
Notwithstanding these facts, Pakistan has almost ceded control of Gwadar port to China, thereby leaving Pakistan devoid of authority over the port. It is utterly illogical to assume that India, Arab nations, Israel, and European countries, which have opposed China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), would rely on China for their own Belt and Road projects. Furthermore, it would be irrational for China to relinquish its strategic port to India, Israel, and Europe for their economic and political interests.
The significance of Pakistan for India lies in its connection to Central Asia, particularly for access to the region's oil, gas, and non-oil markets. India's route to Central Asia entails linking with Iran through a pipeline and subsequently traversing Afghanistan. Pakistan falls on this route. However, following Russia's cessation of gas supply to Europe, India has realized that it no longer necessitates Pakistan. India withdrew from the gas pipeline project due to American sanctions on Iran, and the Pakistan-Iran project is also on hold. Iran is even threatening Pakistan with an $18 billion penalty if it fails to complete the project.
Currently, India aligns itself with the West, where Iran is viewed as an adversary rather than a friend. Other Central Asian countries still maintain their ties with Russia, but they are gradually succumbing to China's influence. Consequently, if geopolitical and geo-strategic scenarios are changed in the future, India will not rely on Central Asia, at least not via Pakistan but Iran. Additionally, India possesses its own port, Chahbahar, for trade with Afghanistan and the CARs. India also acknowledges that the ongoing conflict between the Taliban and Pakistan has disrupted trade routes and commerce with Afghanistan. Looking for alternate routes becomes essential for India.


Pakistan's Reckoning After The G20 Summit


During the fiscal year of 2019-2020, the trade volume between Pakistan and Afghanistan was around $4 billion, but this figure has decreased to $1 billion in subsequent years. Despite its dire economic situation, Pakistan has kept its business channels closed and is willing to bear the loss of the remaining $3 billion. It appears that the relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan is deteriorating. The supply of coal from Afghanistan, vital for Pakistan's power plants, has also been disturbed after heavy taxes were imposed on it by the Afghan Taliban. It has further impeded Pakistan's capacity to generate affordable electricity.

Moreover, Pakistan has blocked trade and business routes to Afghanistan to exert pressure on the Taliban government to act against the Pakistani Taliban (TTP). Compliance by the Taliban could lead to internal rebellion and the collapse of their own government. However, these sanctions imposed by Pakistan will impact the remaining $1.4 billion in trade. If the situation remains the same, India and Iran, through Chahbahar, are likely to meet Afghanistan's needs instead.
Another consequence of these actions is that the interim Afghan Taliban government may gravitate towards India and Iran, distancing itself from Pakistan.
The untoward economic and security developments between the two immediate neighbours favour none. To add more, the Pakistani Taliban's attacks on border areas and their attempted occupation of certain territories have deeply alarmed the Pakistani government and military, prompting them to reconsider their strategy towards Afghanistan and combatting militants in the borderlands.


India At The G20: Is The Glitter Just Surface Deep?


Significant changes have already occurred in Afghanistan. This is not the Afghanistan of the 1990s. The polarization has not only affected the Afghan Taliban on ideological grounds but has also compelled ordinary Afghans to rethink in liberal terms. Religious fanaticism no longer holds sway in Afghanistan. Today's Taliban are not Pakistan's Frankensteins, rather they are rulers of Afghanistan. Their current role in governance is categorically distinct from their previous role, which brought Afghanistan to the brink of complete disaster.
Afghans also expect their government to deliver necessary services and functions. Similarly, the character of the Taliban has evolved over the past 20 years of the US presence in Afghanistan. They are reimagining the principles of governance and demonstrating a far better understanding of how to handle the crisis to ensure stability and security.
In the evolving regional geopolitical and geo-strategic landscape, Pakistan must reassess its political and economic policies accordingly. Losing Afghanistan and Iran means losing economic, political, and security interests in the region. Failure to implement effective policies and pursue goals will lead the country towards isolation and confront it with vibrant economic and political challenges.
TAGS: G20, Pakistan, Afghanistan. India, Saudi Arabia, Israel
SHARE:

https://thefridaytimes.com/contributor/rahim-nasar

Rahim Nasar​

​

Rahim Nasar is an Islamabad-based security and political analyst. He tweets @RahimNasari

Pakistan is 250 million people's country with atomic bombs. But with salve mentality.

 

[epebble]

So they keep producing articles trashing Pakistan.

Rahim Nasar is an Islamabad-based security and political analyst. More likely to be a "We" than "They".

 

[my2cents]

G20 must be source of "pride" for India. Demolishing poor people's homes to gave a fake impression to visiting delegates. No shame.

They even rounded up all stray dogs on the streets and after the g20, abandoned them somewhere else. This was pointed by my niece, who is a dog lover.