'Frankenstorm' bears down on US east coast

[Sashan]

Hurricane Sandy could merge with a winter storm to create what they have dubbed "Frankenstorm" as it churns towards the US, forecasters warn.

Sandy has weakened to a category one hurricane, but is still packing maximum sustained winds of 75mph (120km/h).

The storm is projected to hit the US late on Monday, a week before the election.

Sandy reportedly caused up to 40 deaths as it tore through the Caribbean on Thursday.

At 14:00 EDT (18:00 GMT), the hurricane was moving north at about 7mph, some 30 miles north-east off Great Abaco Island in the Bahamas, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Schools, offices, airports and bridges closed across the Bahamas as residents stocked up on supplies. Power outages were reported throughout the island nation.

Billion-dollar storm?

Meteorologists expect a combination of high winds, heavy rain and extreme tides, as well as snow in some areas.

Up to 10in (25cm) of rain, 2ft of snow and extreme storm surges are forecast.

"It's going to be a long-lasting event, two to three days of impact for a lot of people," said James Franklin, head forecaster at the National Hurricane Center.

Sandy is expected to strike the US late on Monday or early Tuesday somewhere along the US east coast, a day before Halloween and a week before millions of Americans go to the polls to choose a next president.

It could make landfall anywhere between Virginia, Maryland or Delaware up through New York or southern New England.

In New York City, officials are already considering closing down mass transit before the storm hits.

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney cancelled an event scheduled for Sunday in Virginia, a key election state, because of the weather, said an aide.

Caribbean carnage

Earlier on Friday, the White House declined to speculate on whether Sandy would affect President Barack Obama's campaign plans, saying the storm's path was still uncertain.

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The BBC's James Kelly: Haiti homes were flooded and possessions were destroyed
Forecasters say Sandy is similar to another late October storm - when several weather systems, including a hurricane, combined along the US Atlantic coast in 1991, leading to what was dubbed "the Perfect Storm".

Jeff Masters, meteorology director at Weather Underground, estimated there could be more than $1bn (£621m) in damages from Hurricane Sandy.

On Thursday, Sandy caused a storm surge leading to severe flooding along Cuba's south-eastern coastline.

Civil emergency authorities said 11 people had died as the storm lashed the island - nine of those in Santiago province and two in Guantanamo province, despite Cuba's well-rehearsed hurricane preparations. Most victims were killed by falling trees or collapsing buildings.

"The hurricane was very big. I have never seen anything like it in my 54 years," said Santiago resident Reinaldo Rivas.

Elsewhere, 20 deaths were reported in Haiti - where much of the infrastructure remains in a poor condition following a massive earthquake in 2010.

More than 1,000 people sought refuge in shelters there, as Sandy caused widespread power outages, flooded streets and damaged buildings.

Four fatalities were reported across the Dominican Republic, Jamaica and the Bahamas.

 

[Obambam]

The Hurricane Simulation

Simulated in 1997, but it is happening now?

 

[Sashan]

The Hurricane Simulation

Simulated in 1997, but it is happening now?

It is and that is the reason they are thinking it is one of a kind -

Hurricane Sandy may be unprecedented in East Coast storm history​

With computer models locked in on the eventuality of a punishing blow for East Coast from Hurricane Sandy (with the latest model runs favoring the northern mid-Atlantic), analyses suggest this storm may be unlike anything the region has ever experienced.

Model simulations have consistently simulated minimum pressures below 950 mb, which would be the lowest on record in many areas.

“MODELS SHOW PRESSURE WELL BEYOND WHAT HAS EVER BEEN OBSERVED NEAR THE NJ/NY COAST (EVEN EXCEEDING THE 1938 LONG ISLAND EXPRESS [HURRICANE])”, writes NOAA’s Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC).

Connecticut meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan noted there has only been one tropical storm with the pressure below 960 mb in the last 60 years in the Northeast.

Bob Henson of the University Center for Atmospheric Research adds:

While a couple of hurricane landfalls in Florida have produced pressures in this range, most cities in the Northeast have never reached such values, as is evident in this state-by-state roundup. The region’s lowest pressure on record occurred with the 1938 hurricane at Bellport, Long Island (946 hPa).

In the mid-Atlantic region, here are some record low pressures, which could be blown away - depending on the track of the storm:

Baltimore: 971 mb

Richmond: 966 mb

(Source: extremeweatherguide.com)

NOAA’s HPC cautions that sometimes models lower pressure in these storms too much, and favors Sandy to bottom out near 965 mb on its approach to the East Coast - which would still be in record territory in many areas.

You might ask yourself, aren’t hurricanes supposed to weaken as they head north? Why are these pressures so low? Or as the Weather Channel’s Bryan Norcross put it: “What the hell is going on?”

Norcross’ answer: “This is a beyond-strange situation. It’s unprecedented and bizarre.”

He then offers a hypothesis (which I agree with):

The upper-air steering pattern that is part of the puzzle is not all that unheard of. It happens when the atmosphere gets blocked over the Atlantic and the flow over the U.S. doubles back on itself. Sometimes big winter storms are involved.

The freak part is that a hurricane happens to be in the right place in the world to get sucked into this doubled-back channel of air and pulled inland from the coast.

And the double-freak part is that the upper level wind, instead of weakening the storm and simply absorbing the moisture - which would be annoying enough - is merging with the tropical system to create a monstrous hybrid vortex. A combination of a hurricane and a nor’easter.

A simpler explanation: the clash of the cold blast from the continental U.S. and the massive surge of warm, moist air from Hurricane Sandy will cause the storm to explode and the pressure to crash.

These historic low pressure levels simulated by the model are equivalent to a category 3 or 4 hurricane, which have peak winds over 115 mph. But Sandy’s winds will not be that high, because as it transitions into this hybrid hurricane-nor’easter, its core will unwind. So its peak winds will diminish, but strong winds will be felt over a vast area. Think of a compressed slinky expanding as you let it go.

WJLA meteorologist Ryan Miller notes 66,549,869 people live in the National Hurricane Center’s track zone for Sandy. A large percentage of these people will likely contend with tropical storm force winds - 40-60 mph, if not somewhat greater.

I’ll conclude with this note posted in the blog by AccuWeather senior Vice President Mike Smith:

A very prominent and respected National Weather Service meteorologist wrote on Facebook last night,

I’ve never seen anything like this and I’m at a loss for expletives to describe what this storm could do.


Hurricane Sandy may be unprecedented in East Coast storm history - Capital Weather Gang - The Washington Post

 

[Sashan]

'Superstorm' scenario puts millions from North Carolina to Maine on alert ​

Drew Wojtkowski is playing the odds with Hurricane Sandy, with a plan to ride out the massive storm on Sunday at his oceanfront home on North Carolina's Outer Banks.

Yes, he's stocked up with extra supplies. Yes, he's keeping an eye on the rising water levels, particularly on North Carolina 12 -- the state highway that links the Outer Banks with the outside world.

"If that washes out and water rises, then there's no way to get off," he told CNN affiliate WRAL on Saturday.

Hours later, Sandy's storm surge washed out the highway in a number of locations, stranding Wojtkowski and others.

Even as millions of people in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast prepare for the storm's arrival, with thousands evacuating, Wojtkowski and his wife are believed to be among a number of residents hunkering down along the 200-mile stretch of barrier islands.

A state-by-state breakdown of hurricane preparation efforts

"This is just the inconvenience of living by the ocean," Wojtkowski said.

"We rode out Isabel, which we'll never do again, and last year, when Irene came through, we actually couldn't get here for almost 30 days, the road was totally washed out."

Hurricane Sandy has already proven to be deadly, with officials blaming the storm for at least 45 deaths. That figure includes 29 people in Haiti, with four more reported missing. Another 16 were dead in Cuba, Jamaica, Panama, the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico.

By the early hours Sunday morning, the islands were feeling Sandy's wrath as a mix of heavy rain and strong winds lashed the Outer Banks.

Sandy already disrupting transportation

At 5 a.m. E.T., the National Hurricane Center put the storm at about 260 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. The storm was moving parallel to the southeast U.S. coast at about 13 mph with 75 mph sustained winds.

Local and state officials have joined meteorologists in trumpeting the storm's potential breadth and impact, especially if it collides with a cold front from the West to create a "superstorm" that stalls over the Eastern Seaboard for days.

Computer models predict portions of Delaware, Maryland and Virginia could see up to a foot of rain. And even though it's still October, communities in and around the Appalachian Mountains could be socked by heavy snow.

The rush to stay ahead of the storm hit Richard Heilman's Ace Hardware store in Virginia City, where the shelves were nearly emptied by people in rush to snatch up supplies.

If the emphatic warnings from officials weren't enough, fresh memories of recent long stretches without power over the past year or so -- including a devastating and deadly storm system this summer that left millions in the dark for about a week -- have spurred many to get out and not be caught flat-footed.

"People are a little bit more, 'hey, maybe I should go get my batteries now instead of waiting until they're all gone,'" Heilman said.

Keep a hurricane preparation checklist

For some, simply stocking up is not enough.

Residents of New Jersey's barrier islands, from Sandy Hook south to Cape May, were ordered to evacuate by Sunday afternoon, as were people at Atlantic City casinos.

"I would much rather people stay in their homes," said Gov. Chris Christie, who issued the order Saturday. "But the fact of the matter is, if we're looking at hurricane force winds on the barrier islands sustained for 24 hours or more, it is simply unsafe for people to be there."

Carol Elliott said she was concerned, but won't be leaving her North Wildwood home -- because she doesn't have anywhere else to go.

Others, though, planned to abide by the order -- and keep their fingers crossed that Sandy doesn't prove to be as fierce as feared.

"I'm heeding the warning and we're going," Cheryl Nolan told CNN affiliate WKYW. "And I'm hoping that I have a house when I come back."

It won't be until late Sunday, and in some cases Monday, when the Category 1 hurricane makes its full impact known on the United States. But the storm has already proved its might as it spun northward from the Caribbean.

'Superstorm' meets barnstorm as weather and politics collide

Forecasters are still trying to pinpoint where it will have its biggest impact when it finally does come entirely over land. Computer models show it striking somewhere along a roughly 700-mile stretch -- from North Carolina to as far north as Connecticut.

Its potential merger with the cold front could "energize this system" and make it more powerful, said Louis Uccellini, who is responsible for environmental prediction at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Such a scenario is not unlike the weather system that led to 1991's "Perfect Storm," when moisture flung north by Hurricane Grace combined with a high pressure system and a cold front to produce a tempest in the north Atlantic during Halloween. But Grace never made landfall.

It won't be until late Sunday, and in some cases Monday, when the Category 1 hurricane makes its full impact known on the United States.

By then, Wojtkowski and others in the Outer Banks will be starting the storm cleanup.


'Superstorm' scenario puts millions from North Carolina to Maine on alert - CNN.com

 

[VCheng]

The winds and the storm surge on the coast is one thing, but the real danger lies in the huge amounts of rain expected inland, specially if the system stalls.

 

[Sashan]

The winds and the storm surge on the coast is one thing, but the real danger lies in the huge amounts of rain expected inland, specially if the system stalls.

The rain is one thing. But people are worried about the powercut and getting stuck in their homes for the next few days due to the trees falling and blocking the roads. I have done the grocery for the next 1 week but they have run out of water in the local grocery store. My local power company has been sending emails about this storm. I know you are from upstate New York area - Is your area under threat as well?

Part of the email from my local power company -


Helpful Hints:
•Prepare a storm kit and keep it handy. Visit our website for a list of supplies.
•If you use a generator, follow all safety precautions provided by the manufacturer.
•If you use a cell phone, save your power or have a plan to be able to charge the phone.
•Gather all necessary medications and make sure you have an adequate supply.
•If you rely on oxygen please be sure you have an ample supply on hand.
•If you, a friend or family member relies on electricity for life support devices, well water or refrigeration for medications, please make preparations now to switch to a backup source or move to an alternate location. It's also a good idea to have a battery back-up for medical equipment.
•For information on emergency disaster services, including shelters, please contact the American Red Cross at 800-733-2767 (800-RED-CROSS) or online at American Red Cross | Disaster Relief, CPR Certification, Donate Blood.

Please do not respond to this automated e-mail

 

[VCheng]

The rain is one thing. But people are worried about the powercut and getting stuck in their homes for the next few days due to the trees falling and blocking the roads. I have done the grocery for the next 1 week but they have run out of water in the local grocery store. My local power company has been sending emails about this storm. I know you are from upstate New York area - Is your area under threat as well?

Part of the email from my local power company -


Helpful Hints:
•Prepare a storm kit and keep it handy. Visit our website for a list of supplies.
•If you use a generator, follow all safety precautions provided by the manufacturer.
•If you use a cell phone, save your power or have a plan to be able to charge the phone.
•Gather all necessary medications and make sure you have an adequate supply.
•If you rely on oxygen please be sure you have an ample supply on hand.
•If you, a friend or family member relies on electricity for life support devices, well water or refrigeration for medications, please make preparations now to switch to a backup source or move to an alternate location. It's also a good idea to have a battery back-up for medical equipment.
•For information on emergency disaster services, including shelters, please contact the American Red Cross at 800-733-2767 (800-RED-CROSS) or online at American Red Cross | Disaster Relief, CPR Certification, Donate Blood.

Please do not respond to this automated e-mail

Yes, we have been told by the local authorities to be ready for the storm, including the risk of prolonged power cuts.

 

[Obambam]

The rain is one thing. But people are worried about the powercut and getting stuck in their homes for the next few days due to the trees falling and blocking the roads. I have done the grocery for the next 1 week but they have run out of water in the local grocery store. My local power company has been sending emails about this storm. I know you are from upstate New York area - Is your area under threat as well?

Part of the email from my local power company -


Helpful Hints:
•Prepare a storm kit and keep it handy. Visit our website for a list of supplies.
•If you use a generator, follow all safety precautions provided by the manufacturer.
•If you use a cell phone, save your power or have a plan to be able to charge the phone.
•Gather all necessary medications and make sure you have an adequate supply.
•If you rely on oxygen please be sure you have an ample supply on hand.
•If you, a friend or family member relies on electricity for life support devices, well water or refrigeration for medications, please make preparations now to switch to a backup source or move to an alternate location. It's also a good idea to have a battery back-up for medical equipment.
•For information on emergency disaster services, including shelters, please contact the American Red Cross at 800-733-2767 (800-RED-CROSS) or online at American Red Cross | Disaster Relief, CPR Certification, Donate Blood.

Please do not respond to this automated e-mail

Cheers for the updates. I hope people are doing what you are doing and is getting themselves adequately stocked up and prepared for the storm.

 

[Esc8781]

Luckily for me Florida dodged it, but now a cold front is already here.

 

[VCheng]

Luckily for me Florida dodged it, but now a cold front is already here.

The same cold front is giving us chilly temps already, and some wet snow is expected on the coming weekend on the backside of the storm.

 

[longyi]

We, or at least I'm, ready for Sandy here in Brooklyn New York. Just spent a couple of hours tidying up outside of the house, make sure everything is tight and cars are garaged. I even cut down a big branch of a tree that seemed weak. No duct tape was being used though as Rumsfeld suggested a decade or so ago, thanks.

I feel sorry for the folks living by the Jersey shores and Long Island south shores though. I keep my finger crossed for them.

The wife just came back from the supermarket with the kids and mentioned the place was packed with shoppers.

 

[SQ8]

I guess the fact that you guys have wooden houses in the States only makes it worse..
A Concrete structure would be able to take this pounding provided its windows are in good shape.

 

[longyi]

I guess the fact that you guys have wooden houses in the States only makes it worse..
A Concrete structure would be able to take this pounding provided its windows are in good shape.

I have a one story stone house but still I worry about the roof, windows and the trees. I live on high ground so flooding won't be a problem.

 

[Sashan]

Cheers for the updates. I hope people are doing what you are doing and is getting themselves adequately stocked up and prepared for the storm.

The grocery stores and walmarts are already filled with people. As I said the grocery stores are running out of supplies. Some areas are already being evacuated as a precautionary measure. Atlantic City(the Las Vegas equivalent of the North East) is being closed down today.

I guess the fact that you guys have wooden houses in the States only makes it worse..
A Concrete structure would be able to take this pounding provided its windows are in good shape.

That is true. The apartment complexes in my area are pretty safe and people living in suburbs are the ones who are most worried.

 

[anon45]

Hope all the folks on the East coast stay safe!