I agree with you that if one state disintegrates it will affect nearby states. Nobody is denying that but I don't think it is black and white like that. Russia federation disintegrated. It didn't affect us.
USSR case is not comparable to the middle east at all. Remember that we are talking about Middle east.
Iraq is defacto disintegrated. It didn't affect us. In fact we have great relations with them and have military and economic partnership. Creation of KRG affected Iran more than Turkey.
uhhm ... NO, Kurds are 100 times more stronger now, which is one of consequence of KRG increasing its power. remember that sunni kurds(shiite kurds are persianized and will never want separation from iran) are a small percentage of Iranian population and are just leaving in a small undeveloped area of Iran, but Kurds are a big population in Turkey. Anything relating kurds, will affect Turkey more than Iran.
The thing is that people in Turkey can express themselves democratically. If you do that in Iran, you get locked up, raped, tortured and killed. So in Iran only way to express yourself is through violence. If the sanctions don't stop or suddenly increase, these grudges can only get bigger and Israel and US can exploit them through organizing an insurgency. There are no Kurdish or Azeri parties in Iran, why not? Why does everybody get arrested in Iran for being Azeri or Kurd if there is no problem? I think Iran's leadership is rotten from top the bottom. It can't renew itself and become more democratic. Eventually the whole card house will implode and those maps reveal how they plan the new map to look like.
come on dude! We, Azeris, know both of you Anatolian Turks and Iranian Persians far better than what you expect. When you are in a piss contest with persians, you may say this stuff and they may say you some other BS, but I would not buy these stuff. Iranian government and AKP are not that much different as you think.
Turkey closed those TV channels with the hope that Iran wouldn't support terrorism against Turkey but since 90'ies Iran is continuing to support PKK against Turkey. Recently there was a press release that there is a deal between Iran and PKK. If they stop their activities in Iran, they would get support from Iran in other countries.
and there are some reports that say PJAK(Iranian PKK) has recently prevented PDKI to do military actions inside Iran. Iran will support PKK to leash PDKI, ISIS, KRG, ... and having a tool against Turkey but the important point is that this support is limited to some specific amounts. I doubt it if any sane person in Iranian government seeks disintegration of Turkey because of that domino effect.
So why did Pakistan not accept the request of Saudi to send troops to Yemen? I'm sorry to say this but you are totally talking out of your *** here. Pakistan is influenced by Saudi Arabia but they have their own decision making structure. Their refusal to not send troops to Yemen (although Saudis were so persistent) is evidence for this. Pakistan is with us to the end and we are with them to the end. If needed they will even give us Nuclear support. Iran won't get any support from Pakistan. Every so many months there are fights on the Iran-Pakistani border.
You don't know anything from Pakistan, bro.
It was because of Iran that Pakistan did not join the coalition. Iranian FM goes to Pakistan, meets a few of his guys there, then Pakistan avoids joining Yemen operation. Then, what else do you think? Pakistan is a poor country, and a poor country has no sides except for what others dictate to them. Orders in Pakistan always comes from Washington, Riyadh and Tehran. Believe it or not, that's the real story. Sometimes, Iranians and saudis have some fights inside pakistan with their proxies to project their power to each other from time to time, but I would not take it seriously.
We have Bosnia, Albania, Kosovo and millions of other Muslims in Balkans who are behind us until the end. The same counts for the Turkic world who is 200 million people in total. There are millions of Tatars, Chechens and other muslims in Russia. Trust me. You don't have to worry about us not getting support. We don't relly on Syrian Arabs only for support. From who would Iran get support? You might get some Afghan and Pakistani Shia militia support (without approval of their government).
Bosnia, Albania, and Kosovo? seriously? They cannot even unzip their pants as nations. and Central Asian countries are under heavy influence of Russia. Iran has bunch of shitte, socialists, social-democrats, and communists countries, in addition to Russia and China to back them up. Turkey has the support of west to some extent on the other hand.
But, the point is not about a piss contest between Iran and Turkey. You are missing the point.
Luckily AKP didn't get majority of the votes. If they make a coalition with CHP or MHP, they will have to make a reconciliation with Egypt. Some of AKPians moronic foreign policy can be backtracked. About Israeli-Turkish relations. Israel-Turkey never broke relations really. I think the flotilla thing was planned by the AKP government to not alienate the Muslim world because AKP agreed on a radar system in Turkey to protect Israel from Iranian missiles. Israel and Turkey have soaring economic trade, with AKP coalition with MHP or CHP, problems with Israel can be solved and they will stop supporting troubles against Turkey but I'm afraid that Israel will continue to fully support the disintegration of Iran.
Let's talk about Israel later.
That is true. The only reason why Iran is not attacked is because of its energy role in the international market but as you can see the west is creating new sources to not be depended on Iranian energy. When there are alternatives to Iranian energy which soon will be. Then we can accept things to happen. Probably they would start with a no-fly zone above Iran like they did in Syria for the Kurds and bomb all Iranian assets to the ground. They might also support Azeri but I'm not sure about that. The Iranian regime is very strict and keeps everything in place. If there were no problems they wouldn't be this authoritarian. If Iran doesn't fix this this will be used against you.
No fly zone in Iran?!!! No, bro. it's not going to happen. You don't know how much influence oil and also Iranian control on Hormoz strait brings for Iran. Iranian government has a huge lobby among American leftists and oil companies. If it was not because of huge pressure of right wings in US, and Arab and Israeli lobby, leftists would have already given the golden key of the middle east to Iranian government.
Iran would help Turkey 100% if that were to happen. Because Turkey isn't an enemy, at best it's a rival. If Turkey's territorial integrity is in question, Iran's is next. So Iran will help Turkey. Helping Turkey is a lot more easy with a normal president/premier such as Erbakan, instead of this Georgian DOG that's in power now. Anyway, finally the veil is being lifted from the eyes of some of our more ignorant countrymen. It's really simple: 'some' powers that be don't like a strong Turkey/Iran, which have been there in some shape or form for a VERY long time. Turkey about a thousand years, Iran about 4000. May god damn the infant children of those who wish harm on these two countries. May rats like Erdogan die of disease and set Turkey free. Erbakan didn't go along with the plans of the US etc, but Erdogan does. Erbakan was PRO-Turkey, pro it's economy and pro good relations with it's neighbours. Now look, Turkey is F-ing surrounded from the south and the east by these people. Allah kahretsin. Fool the ignorant village people with islam and headscarves, while being complicit to the grand plans of a rapidly declining world power.
Atawolf, there are so many points i'd like to react to, but I haven't that long. Let's just say you should study the region and it's politics a bit more. About Iran's energy, let's just say that GAS is about to become a LOT more important tomorrow and in the future. Iran has the largest or 2nd largest gas reserves. Point is, fossil fuels aren't becoming less dominant. Sure, in the West, but you have China which will still need to about double it's energy use in the next 15-20 years, and India, which is barely just waking up. India's economy will be about 15 times it's current size in about 20 years. Guess who's located close by? Guess who has the 'clean fossile fuel' reserves of the world? Indeed.
Besides, the way I see it. And rmi5 would be a lot more knowledgable about this, but pretty much this is certain: if the Iranian Turks and Iranian Persians remain united, pretty much nothing can happen to Iran's borders. And even if say the Azeris hated Iran, and didn't share the common history, they'd still have their eyes on the huge oil and gas fields in Southern Iran. Because let me tell you, Azerbaijan's oil and gas is a nice luxury if your country has 8-10 million people. It's not so much if you have 30 million. And power has allure as well. Rather be part of a strong regional superpower than of a small vassal sstate. Anyway, we'll see what happens in the near future with the atomic deal and with the sanctions. But let me restate: Iran and Turkey are not enemies. At best they are rivals. The only two grown-ups in the region. The GCC will get theirs.
You have mentioned some points that I agree and some that I disagree. I just need to add and emphasis on one point:
Azeris are a big part of Iranian society, but there is a point here. about half or more of Azeris are living in Capital and its surrounding area. this part of Azeris, are a strong bourgeoises who care for their business interests which is directly/indirectly related to the oil and trade coming from South of Iran. Azeris living in NorthWest are in general the poor part of Iranian Azeri; hence have limited influence. Influence comes from money and politics. As long as Azeris living in Tehran, don't care about the separatism, no separation is going to happen. In Iran, all of the roads always end at Tehran. That's the bottom line of story. Sunni kurds are a very small minority, and they cannot do anything on their own.