FORGETTING THAR? is the new govt ignoring Thar coal?

[Argus Panoptes]

i am definetly no coal expert and i know that some of the combine gas plants cant be converted into coal but lignite b can be converted through coal surray technique into coal gas...primary feasiblity study was conducted.

while oracle coal company is thinking of coal Briquette to transport coal from thar, the feasilbity report is completed and it also has signed a Mou with KESC, exmples of lignite B been transported by this process exist in the world

reality is we live in denial, denial of even simple things as coal mining. when well calculated studies done by foreign consultants are even available..i dont know who we can believe? i think experts who do study over years do have credibility in this regard

the issue with thar, bhasha dam etc is very simple money,money and money
no single private firm is foolish enough to throw in billions of dollars in high risk country like pakistan with poorest credit ranking in the region
Oracle Coalfields PLC UK Block-VI ‹ Thar Coal and Energy Board
Oracle Coalfields PLC

one example of poor quality coal been briquetted where very poor quality of vast coal reserves allows this process
Report - Department of Natural Resources | State of Louisiana

Please do not forget that Thar has Lignite of B grade which is less than 6,300 BTU/lb whereas most Lignite being used as you indicate above is of A grade, which is between 6,300 to 8,300 BTU/lb. That changes the economics adversely by at least 20-25%, tipping the whole project into infeasibility easily.

And, as you say, we simply do not have the money to exploit even that because "no single private firm is foolish enough to throw in billions of dollars in high risk country like Pakistan with poorest credit ranking in the region".

 

[ziaulislam]

so those people who say there is no money should also know that if there is no money for that then there should be money for nothing..
energy should be on top. the problem is govt still is confused and not determine about what has to be done.
one reason for this attitude was that until early 2000s we were blessed with huge amount of gas and our policy makers didnt though about the future
but this doesnt mean thar is not minable..if so many experts hired from germany by engro thinks that its highly minable then how come amateurs or some news reporter or some self proclaimed scientist say its not?

it make sense that underground gasification may not be possible due to untested technology but open pit minning is is defiently an open option

 

[ziaulislam]

Please do not forget that Thar has Lignite of B grade which is less than 6,300 BTU/lb whereas most Lignite being used as you indicate above is of A grade, which is between 6,300 to 8,300 BTU/lb. That changes the economics adversely by at least 20-25%, tipping the whole project into infeasibility easily.

And, as you say, we simply do not have the money to exploit even that because "no single private firm is foolish enough to throw in billions of dollars in high risk country like Pakistan with poorest credit ranking in the region".

thar coal values ranges from Chemical analyses of coal samples from the drill holes show that the weighted average of as received values of the Ash content ranges between 5.14 and 6.56 %, Volatile matter 26.50 and 33.04 %, Moisture 43.24 and 49.01 %, Sulphur 0.92 %, 1.34 % and 1.3% and Heating Values range between As Received 5,780 and 6,398 Btu/lb, Dry10,723 and 11,353 Btu/Lb MMM Free 6,101 and 6,841 Btu/lb, DAF 11605 and 12,613. The Volatile Matter Dry Ash Free (DAF) basis varies between 57.72 and 60 % the rank of coal is Lignite B to Lignite A.


germany and greece lignite ranges less than this while Louisiana coal is similar lignite B to lignite A! the document released by engro shows that and is based upon actual 3000 sample analysis not some "expert" sitting and speculating at home.
the bankable feasibility released in later half of 2013 by oracle puts the cost of production at 42.5$/tone.. with RR of 20.1%

regarding funds, i agree but isnt that same for everything, lack of funding doesnt mean we should sit down but it means govt should invest from PSDP..
having said so i think we may get some power from that by 2018

imported coal ranges from 90-120$..making it extremely feasible given that 10% loss and transport charges put coal price at 200$/tones

 

[Argus Panoptes]

thar coal values ranges from Chemical analyses of coal samples from the drill holes show that the weighted average of as received values of the Ash content ranges between 5.14 and 6.56 %, Volatile matter 26.50 and 33.04 %, Moisture 43.24 and 49.01 %, Sulphur 0.92 %, 1.34 % and 1.3% and Heating Values range between As Received 5,780 and 6,398 Btu/lb, Dry10,723 and 11,353 Btu/Lb MMM Free 6,101 and 6,841 Btu/lb, DAF 11605 and 12,613. The Volatile Matter Dry Ash Free (DAF) basis varies between 57.72 and 60 % the rank of coal is Lignite B to Lignite A.


germany and greece lignite ranges less than this while Louisiana coal is similar lignite B to lignite A! the document released by engro shows that and is based upon actual 3000 sample analysis not some "expert" sitting and speculating at home.
the bankable feasibility released in later half of 2013 by oracle puts the cost of production at 42.5$/tone.. with RR of 20.1%

regarding funds, i agree but isnt that same for everything, lack of funding doesnt mean we should sit down but it means govt should invest from PSDP..
having said so i think we may get some power from that by 2018

imported coal ranges from 90-120$..making it extremely feasible given that 10% loss and transport charges put coal price at 200$/tones

"Some" power by 2018? Okay, let's see what happens with Engro's project. I hope it fares better than the tall claims made by the Coal Gasification failure.

 

[ziaulislam]

"Some" power by 2018? Okay, let's see what happens with Engro's project. I hope it fares better than the tall claims made by the Coal Gasification failure.

coal gasification was" a wounder" project by one man..plus only 1 billion rupees were released. although he did produced some syn gas but we wouldnt know until further progress happens which subjected to funds
one thing is for sure underground coal gasification is an experimental techinque not widely emplyed , it only exist in few areas

it wasnt a project from a reputable serious company

 

[Argus Panoptes]

coal gasification was" a wounder" project by one man..plus only 1 billion rupees were released. although he did produced some syn gas but we wouldnt know until further progress happens which subjected to funds
one thing is for sure underground coal gasification is an experimental techinque not widely emplyed , it only exist in few areas

it wasnt a project from a reputable serious company

Yes, but please go back and read all the initial tall claims made for that project. Then compare them to the tall claims being made now. It is informative to see how the hype gets built up and then fails.

 

[airmarshal]

PMLN govt only clear policy thats seen to be working in full swing is appeasement of India at all costs.

There had been so many LOC violations by India and several soldiers killed and not a single word from the top office of the country. Not jsut that, they are also sneaking out of building the Bhasha Dam.

This unfortunate that Pakistan gets govts. which claim to have the backing of the people but are cowards of worst kind.

 

[ziaulislam]

Yes, but please go back and read all the initial tall claims made for that project. Then compare them to the tall claims being made now. It is informative to see how the hype gets built up and then fails.

the hype is present even now, but people who had knowledge even at that time considered underground coal gasification as a experimental process..
the hype is being created by sumar mubarak who by no mean is a coal expert ..no foreign experienced consultants were hired, no real detail feasibility report was created.

but no real expert denies the feasiblity of open pit minning..
i dont expect anything from UCG but am hopefull for open pit minning

 

[Argus Panoptes]

the hype is present even now, but people who had knowledge even at that time considered underground coal gasification as a experimental process..
the hype is being created by sumar mubarak who by no mean is a coal expert ..no foreign experienced consultants were hired, no real detail feasibility report was created.

but no real expert denies the feasiblity of open pit minning..
i dont expect anything from UCG but am hopefull for open pit minning

Open Pit mining for coal is a recognized and useful technology, no doubt.

But to be able to open pit mine Lignite-B in Thar and produce large-scale power in a financially viable manner? I don't think so.

 

[ziaulislam]

Open Pit mining for coal is a recognized and useful technology, no doubt.

But to be able to open pit mine Lignite-B in Thar and produce large-scale power in a financially viable manner? I don't think so.

viable why? because Nepra has cost for coal plants @ 10 rs while cost of production per feasiblity is 10 paisa with RR of 3.8 years
imported coal return rate is 5 years
but problem is intial investment and risk relating to it. imported coal investment is 500 million while minimum investment for mining is 2 billion dollars
so far only engro and sino-sindh cooperation will go for full scale mining
oracle may go for only minning and coal briquetting and transport to KESC

fiancial viability and foreign investment are two different things. a fincial vaible project means if you invest you wouldnt fail, to get funds you need bankable feasibility otherwise no bank is idiot enough to give you funds, the fact that engro got funds from aboard means that its very much finacially vaiable.

regarding huge amount of foreign investment in thar, its unlikely not due to thar but due to poor credit rating ..noone will invest in pakistan in huge amounts (more than 300-400 million) unless its very easy picking or return rate of much better than thar

whole pakistan direct invest is below 2 billion even though some hydro project have return rate of 2-3 years

so thar is viable but we dont expect much foreign investment as MAJOR investment is not happening in any sector
sino sindh bankable feasibility and funds arrangement happened a few days back..so it may start mining by 2014 and production by 2017
having said that we do expect 2000mw from engro and sino-sindh

 

[Argus Panoptes]

viable why? because Nepra has cost for coal plants @ 10 rs while cost of production per feasiblity is 10 paisa with RR of 3.8 years
imported coal return rate is 5 years
but problem is intial investment and risk relating to it. imported coal investment is 500 million while minimum investment for mining is 2 billion dollars
so far only engro and sino-sindh cooperation will go for full scale mining
oracle may go for only minning and coal briquetting and transport to KESC

It is simple: investment goes readily where it is feasible, for it seeks appreciation. Events will continue to show that it is not feasible in Thar.

 

[ziaulislam]

It is simple: investment goes readily where it is feasible, for it seeks appreciation. Events will continue to show that it is not feasible in Thar.

nope investment goes looking fot two things
1. which the most important is risk and country credit rating
2. only then people look at the return rate..


had investors merly looked at return rates then there would have been no raating systems

people prefer to invest in C+ rating country over C- even if return is 10% vs 50%
its about risk...

if you want to overlook well documented "bankable" feasiblity reports that were complted just a few days back sino-sindh and two months back for sino-sindh which have even pointed out the cost then i dont think so i can add anything else
i for especially know that no bank i stupid enough to provide credit for unfeasible report...the fact that the companies got credit from banks explains it all

 

[Argus Panoptes]

nope investment goes looking fot two things
1. which the most important is risk and country credit rating
2. only then people look at the return rate..


had investors merly looked at return rates then there would have been no raating systems

people prefer to invest in C+ rating country over C- even if return is 10% vs 50%
its about risk...

if you want to overlook well documented "bankable" feasiblity reports that were complted just a few days back sino-sindh and two months back for sino-sindh which have even pointed out the cost then i dont think so i can add anything else
i for especially know that no bank i stupid enough to provide credit for unfeasible report...the fact that the companies got credit from banks explains it all

Sir, the world of Big Finance is quite funny. Sometimes a company wants to take loss to better its tax position, provide kickbacks or any number of other tricks, but that is another story.

All the feasibility reports are worth nothing until and unless the money starts flowing, and then, later, in this case, the power into the national grid.