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FORGETTING THAR? is the new govt ignoring Thar coal?

RWE is for one block, there are more blocks under engro, ssrl, etc. All with bankable feasibility done. If casa-1000 for 1000MW all the way from central Asia is economically feasible (though politically probably not) than an HT line for 4000 odd from thar certainly is.

Isn't CAS-1000 the same HT line for which all international financing was withdrawn?

Do you you really think there is a whole line of investors looking to generate 5 to 10 thousand MW of power from Thar coal?

I don't think so.
 
Isn't CAS-1000 the same HT line for which all international financing was withdrawn?

Do you you really think there is a whole line of investors looking to generate 5 to 10 thousand MW of power from Thar coal?

I don't think so.

CASA won't go through due to Afghanistan's situation.

Engro, ssrl, rwe block, with bankable feasibility, each with at least a 1000 MW potential at least. You don't think so? that's the problem, you are basing all your arguments on personal opinions. I did not say 10k MW.
 
CASA won't go through due to Afghanistan's situation.

Engro, ssrl, rwe block, with bankable feasibility, each with at least a 1000 MW potential at least. You don't think so? that's the problem, you are basing all your arguments on personal opinions. I did not say 10k MW.

I said 5 to 10 thousand MW. We would be lucky to see even 100MW from Thar over the next 10 years. Very lucky. It just ain't gonna happen, methinks.
 
I said 5 to 10 thousand MW. We would be lucky to see even 100MW from Thar over the next 10 years. Very lucky. It just ain't gonna happen, methinks.

:) alright what can I say, I can only provide hard data but if you are unwilling to accept any then it's more of a personal opinion thing. One thing I would agree, in a country where leadership can drown tens of billions on a 27 km stretch of road for halka politics, we would indeed be very lucky if they get the senses to invest in the right place:)
 
:) alright what can I say, I can only provide hard data but if you are unwilling to accept any then it's more of a personal opinion thing. One thing I would agree, in a country where leadership can drown tens of billions on a 27 km stretch of road for halka politics, we would indeed be very lucky if they get the senses to invest in the right place:)

My opinions are based on facts, and the fact remains that Thar coal is not a suitable energy source for us given our present constraints, nor will it be easy for us to exploit in the foreseeable future as well. Sorry.
 
Thanks for the valuable input sir but it seems like the bitumen emulsion was a whole new experiment with a completely new and untested pricing model. Where as in case of lignite, it's being used for fuel for decades with established mechanisms for extraction, pricing and power generation.

In any case, based on your experience, can you tell us is the thar coal really so low quality so as to make it useless for power generation as some are suggesting?


I was drawing an analogy, both projects are untapped. Untapped /= not feasible


I have to qualify my statement that my views are based upon the study:

“Thar Coal, the gateway to energy security of Pakistan by Ajaz Ali Khan, Secretary, Coal & Energy Development Dep’t, Gov’t of Sindh . 2008.”

And a PHD thesis in Geology titled “ Enviromental study of coal deposits of Sindh with special reference to Heavy & Trace metal study in Thar, Sonda and Meting-Jhimpir coal field” submitted to University of Peshawar in 2007.

And “Pakistan’s Thar Coal Power generation potential” a publication of Pak US Embassy of July 2008.

All are available on the internet.

I have already stated that in my humble opinion there is no earthly reason why Thar coal cannot be used as a fuel for power generation.

What people that really matter think in this regard is another matter.
 
I have to qualify my statement that my views are based upon the study:

“Thar Coal, the gateway to energy security of Pakistan by Ajaz Ali Khan, Secretary, Coal & Energy Development Dep’t, Gov’t of Sindh . 2008.”

And a PHD thesis in Geology titled “ Enviromental study of coal deposits of Sindh with special reference to Heavy & Trace metal study in Thar, Sonda and Meting-Jhimpir coal field” submitted to University of Peshawar in 2007.

And “Pakistan’s Thar Coal Power generation potential” a publication of Pak US Embassy of July 2008.

All are available on the internet.

I have already stated that in my humble opinion there is no earthly reason why Thar coal cannot be used as a fuel for power generation.

What people that really matter think in this regard is another matter.


You should consider reading through this authoritative source on Thar coal in addition to the above:

http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PNABU473.pdf
 
Thank you for that breakdown. Now please allow me to tell you the bottom line:

Thar Coal will remain buried and not utilized for the foreseeable future because of its low quality and financial infeasibility.


exact BTU values are present on net and on feasiblity reports, its better than quality of some coal used in many countries..
reason of thar development pace is not lack of coal quality but lack of infrastrutre..
i am surprised that you think that four companies including the most reputable company engro and sino coal coperation are idiots who dont know that?

report saying a total of 13 billion out of 630 billion sindh budget(less than 2%!) for thar..now spending that is different issue
Mining for Thar coal to begin in first quarter of 2014 – The Express Tribune
 
Will the Oil import decrease after GoP Starts utilizing Thar coal?
If yes than ... Some people will benefit hugely if it's ignored!
 
exact BTU values are present on net and on feasiblity reports, its better than quality of some coal used in many countries..
reason of thar development pace is not lack of coal quality but lack of infrastrutre..
i am surprised that you think that four companies including the most reputable company engro and sino coal coperation are idiots who dont know that?

report saying a total of 13 billion out of 630 billion sindh budget(less than 2%!) for thar..now spending that is different issue
Mining for Thar coal to begin in first quarter of 2014 – The Express Tribune

Well Sir, four most reputable companies and there is still not a single megawatt obtained from Thar coal. That is the litmus test. Infrastructural support is part and parcel of any large scale power generation project and needs to be taken into account while determining overall feasibility. That is why Thar coal will remain where it is: underground. If it were high quality anthracite, leading companies would be all over it already. Some would say that Thar coal is not even coal, but B grade Lignite, which is just one step removed from peat.
 
Well Sir, four most reputable companies and there is still not a single megawatt obtained from Thar coal. That is the litmus test. Infrastructural support is part and parcel of any large scale power generation project and needs to be taken into account while determining overall feasibility. That is why Thar coal will remain where it is: underground. If it were high quality anthracite, leading companies would be all over it already. Some would say that Thar coal is not even coal, but B grade Lignite, which is just one step removed from peat.
because govt is not providing any infrastruture so pace is slow, especially the fedral govt( mainly punjab doesnt want it ? i dont know why?)
secondly it takes time the project didnt had any feasibility reports back in 1992 they simply just estimated the reserves..the feasiblity reports were completed only 2010..while minning is suppose to start in 2014..thats is pretty quick..
block 1 is govt held with no investment, block 4 is underground gasification with mere 1 billion rupees allowed till now!
the other three blocks are sino-sindh and engro sindh and oracle..sino coal coperaiton operate 30,000mw of coal plants..do you think they are idiots..

why investers not lining up, sir thats pretty obvious, the investment required is very huge while return was questionable till now due to lack of previous studies, infrastructural and more importantly circular debt no company is idiot enough to invest in 5-6 billion dollars if we wouldnt pay them..
remeber that pakistan till now had gas fired plants that would cost rs 4.0 ( even now for cement captive plant who make electricty by themselves rather than buying from govt), coal from imported may cost upto 8 while thar will cost 9 rs due to small scale minning..

what is needed that govt should take the lead in coal rather than waiting for foreign investors..you see large projects are rarely taken by foreign investors i thought you would have known that..now wind etc is different thing as investment is less than 300 million for each project...

imported coal is cheaper initially, cost with return is better, because govt (nepra) provides return on 4 years cost basis..so foreign investors usually think why not invest 500 million for 600mw imported coal plant rather than investing 4 billion for 2000mw intergated coal minning power project, its all about risk..afterall we have been rated c-- on credit rating not A+!!, we have even defaulted on sovereign grantee..a large company may default if it invest 5 billion dollars but would nt if it invest 300-600 million dollars(in then end we say that 10 rs is too much to pay! uptill now that was the situation as i said gas was only 4rs)
the best example is hong Kong coal sarray project company which ran away once we defaulted on sovereign grantees


their is only one issue with coal which has been faced and solved by companies elsewhere that high moisture content..engro thinks and many other experts that can be useful..you need to dry the coal before using it ..the water gained can be used for closed circuit power plants that utilize little water due to recycling of steam..there is also huge amount of underground water that can be easily pumped out for these plants

thar quality as per actuall samples drilled at all over the four blocks were

the Ash content ranges between 5.14 and 6.56 %, Volatile matter 26.50 and 33.04 %, Moisture 43.24 and 49.01 %, Sulphur 0.92 %, 1.34 % and 1.3% and Heating Values range between As (Received) 5,780 and 6,398 Btu/lb, (Dry)10,723 and 11,353 Btu/Lb MMM Free 6,101 and 6,841 Btu/lb, DAF 11605 and 12,613. The Volatile Matter Dry Ash Free (DAF) basis varies between 57.72 and 60 % the rank of coal is Lignite B to Lignite A.

oracle detailed study put it at gross calorific value of 3,182k calories per wet(NOT DRY) kilogram..that is well within lignite 3000-5000, peat has value of less than 2000
having said so countries have used even peat for power production!

summarize, even though Mou was signed for three companies for 10,000 mw, its unlikely that this scale will be achieved as govt is not providing infrastruture and isnt taking lead in investment. large companies wouldnt invest in local coal due to large investment required, due to poor track record and Pakistan previous defaultments..thar coal is usable(in between lignite A and B but not peat) and financial feasible for power production. however its likely that by 2018 we will see atleast some production from coal. those who deny well documented feasiblity reports from drawing rooms are hilarious. ofcourse it isnt anthracite, thats is a very high grade coal and can be easily exported at high price for benefits in other industries..foreign companies may have been more confident had that been the case.
 
Its too late for take decision, and time run very fast and govt ????
 
because govt is not providing any infrastruture so pace is slow, especially the fedral govt( mainly punjab doesnt want it ? i dont know why?)
secondly it takes time the project didnt had any feasibility reports back in 1992 they simply just estimated the reserves..the feasiblity reports were completed only 2010..while minning is suppose to start in 2014..thats is pretty quick..
block 1 is govt held with no investment, block 4 is underground gasification with mere 1 billion rupees allowed till now!
the other three blocks are sino-sindh and engro sindh and oracle..sino coal coperaiton operate 30,000mw of coal plants..do you think they are idiots..

why investers not lining up, sir thats pretty obvious, the investment required is very huge while return was questionable till now due to lack of previous studies, infrastructural and more importantly circular debt no company is idiot enough to invest in 5-6 billion dollars if we wouldnt pay them..
remeber that pakistan till now had gas fired plants that would cost rs 4.0 ( even now for cement captive plant who make electricty by themselves rather than buying from govt), coal from imported may cost upto 8 while thar will cost 9 rs due to small scale minning..

what is needed that govt should take the lead in coal rather than waiting for foreign investors..you see large projects are rarely taken by foreign investors i thought you would have known that..now wind etc is different thing as investment is less than 300 million for each project...

imported coal is cheaper initially, cost with return is better, because govt (nepra) provides return on 4 years cost basis..so foreign investors usually think why not invest 500 million for 600mw imported coal plant rather than investing 4 billion for 2000mw intergated coal minning power project, its all about risk..afterall we have been rated c-- on credit rating not A+!!, we have even defaulted on sovereign grantee..a large company may default if it invest 5 billion dollars but would nt if it invest 300-600 million dollars(in then end we say that 10 rs is too much to pay! uptill now that was the situation as i said gas was only 4rs)
the best example is hong Kong coal sarray project company which ran away once we defaulted on sovereign grantees


their is only one issue with coal which has been faced and solved by companies elsewhere that high moisture content..engro thinks and many other experts that can be useful..you need to dry the coal before using it ..the water gained can be used for closed circuit power plants that utilize little water due to recycling of steam..there is also huge amount of underground water that can be easily pumped out for these plants

thar quality as per actuall samples drilled at all over the four blocks were

the Ash content ranges between 5.14 and 6.56 %, Volatile matter 26.50 and 33.04 %, Moisture 43.24 and 49.01 %, Sulphur 0.92 %, 1.34 % and 1.3% and Heating Values range between As (Received) 5,780 and 6,398 Btu/lb, (Dry)10,723 and 11,353 Btu/Lb MMM Free 6,101 and 6,841 Btu/lb, DAF 11605 and 12,613. The Volatile Matter Dry Ash Free (DAF) basis varies between 57.72 and 60 % the rank of coal is Lignite B to Lignite A.

oracle detailed study put it at gross calorific value of 3,182k calories per wet(NOT DRY) kilogram..that is well within lignite 3000-5000, peat has value of less than 2000
having said so countries have used even peat for power production!

summarize, even though Mou was signed for three companies for 10,000 mw, its unlikely that this scale will be achieved as govt is not providing infrastruture and isnt taking lead in investment. large companies wouldnt invest in local coal due to large investment required, due to poor track record and Pakistan previous defaultments..thar coal is usable(in between lignite A and B but not peat) and financial feasible for power production. however its likely that by 2018 we will see atleast some production from coal. those who deny well documented feasiblity reports from drawing rooms are hilarious. ofcourse it isnt anthracite, thats is a very high grade coal and can be easily exported at high price for benefits in other industries..foreign companies may have been more confident had that been the case.

Summary of the Summary: Thar coal will lie buried and unused.
 
I have to qualify my statement that my views are based upon the study:

“Thar Coal, the gateway to energy security of Pakistan by Ajaz Ali Khan, Secretary, Coal & Energy Development Dep’t, Gov’t of Sindh . 2008.”

And a PHD thesis in Geology titled “ Enviromental study of coal deposits of Sindh with special reference to Heavy & Trace metal study in Thar, Sonda and Meting-Jhimpir coal field” submitted to University of Peshawar .....

I have already stated that in my humble opinion there is no earthly reason why Thar coal cannot be used as a fuel for power generation.

What people that really matter think in this regard is another matter.

Thank you for the response sir. Indeed the only reason why it has remained un-utilised is bad planning. If implementation was the criteria of feasibility than thermal power on imported oil should have been a wonderful success. We actually implemented it and now it accounts for ~60pc of our power mix and due to it's in-feasibility we are seeing circular debts and under-utilised generation capacity.
 
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