Focus turns to developing electric vehicle industry

[Zulfiqar]

if you are the same zulfiqar from pakwheels, sorry mate,, what you say above doesnt make sense

we dont have to develop anything . market is full of EVs .. hyundai , kia , nissan all make them.

circular debt has gone down considerably from 1400bn to around 800bn ( thanks to renegotiating power tarriffs and hi elec costs ) . nearly 800MW of wind energy will come online next year ..

we dont have an electricity crisis anymore




irrelevant , off topic comments, childish

what has the mehran and NTDC lines got to do with EVs?????

I am not. Have never been on that site.

Market is full of EVs but are we going for another round of CKDs where these companies enjoy tax breaks, repatriate profits and close shop after a few years resulting in hardly any further industrialization.

We need to upgrade our vendor network so that more of the revenue is retained within country instead of heavy FX outflows.

Circular debt has not gone down. A portion of it just got transferred over the years. 500 B plus of it has been parked in PHPL as loans from banks and spread over six years. We are stuck with 30 B of that amount for next 6 years because we can't sell it readily in market like PIBs/T- Bills.

The rest is in payables and govt. is trying to raise funds via sukuks to spread some of it over 10 years.

That money has to be paid too you know that right?

Electricity capacity is there but who do you think is paying for those capacity payments regardless of whether we use that capacity or not.

Our tariffs are still low and circular debt will keep ballooning up due to revenue leakage as well as increased cost owing to increased capacity payments.

Now we are talking about adding EVs into the mix that will use electricity from a supply chain that bleeds revenue and it will only increase this circular debt.

EVs are not feasible until we upgrade our transmission lines to handle projected capacity as well as our whole energy supply chain.

 

[blueazure]

I am not. Have never been on that site.

Market is full of EVs but are we going for another round of CKDs where these companies enjoy tax breaks, repatriate profits and close shop after a few years resulting in hardly any further industrialization.

We need to upgrade our vendor network so that more of the revenue is retained within country instead of heavy FX outflows.

Circular debt has not gone down. A portion of it just got transferred over the years. 500 B plus of it has been parked in PHPL as loans from banks and spread over six years. We are stuck with 30 B of that amount for next 6 years because we can't sell it readily in market like PIBs/T- Bills.

The rest is in payables and govt. is trying to raise funds via sukuks to spread some of it over 10 years.

That money has to be paid too you know that right?

Electricity capacity is there but who do you think is paying for those capacity payments regardless of whether we use that capacity or not.

Our tariffs are still low and circular debt will keep ballooning up due to revenue leakage as well as increased cost owing to increased capacity payments.

Now we are talking about adding EVs into the mix that will use electricity from a supply chain that bleeds revenue and it will only increase this circular debt.

EVs are not feasible until we upgrade our transmission lines to handle projected capacity as well as our whole energy supply chain.

my friend , im in the power industry ( renewable to be precise ) , let me share something ;-

1. the poisonous ,capacity payment based tariffs have almost all been renegotiated and scuttled . the new govt basically went to the IPPs and told them to move to feed in tarrifs, or else.......
they had no choice


2. RE mix has increased while the gas guzzling FO mix has decreased . almost 1500MW is pure wind now in NTDC grid that costs WAPDA an average of 9 PKR / unit .. the same is sold at 14 RS off peak and 20 peak .. surplus cash here .. and tarrifs are all feed in

3.LNG based plants have flat FEED in tarriffs at 7 cents / unit . very feasible too ..

to cut it short, the situation isnt that bad anymore and the new govt can atleast now breathe


regarding EV and charging infrastructure, its impact on grid will be mitigated by fuel savings import bill reduction. i can gladly pay even 30 Rs per unit at a charging station . the govt wont lose here


i have talked to industry experts and even the CFO of nishat group .. all agree that EVs are feasible for pakistan... the choice of NOT introducing the IONIQ ev by hyundai was a pure corporate decision

What can be expected from the Government of the extreme incompetent, U-Turn and stupidity.

I would like to import a PHV (Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle) Prius and hook it up to a Solar System for charging. I have heard that the new generation of Prius is good enough to travel up to 100 km's on a single charge. Some of the electric vehicles out there are good enough for over 150 miles, enough for me to travel the whole week to and from work and then charge the vehicle on Solar over the weekend.

The upfront cost is prohibitive which is where the Government needs to offer incentives to SOLAR systems by making them tax free and offer interest free loans, or loans on very low interest etc. This could have been done under Dar and PML but the incumbent is so darned incompetent, egoistic and non-sense that they would end up making this even costlier.

even on grid, it is cost effective to charge your NISSAN leaf 2nd gen and get a 170 mile range on full charge

its pure fallacy and heresay these days to bash EVs when the same are being used for daily commutes all over the world

 

[Zulfiqar]

my friend , im in the power industry ( renewable to be precise ) , let me share something ;-

1. the poisonous ,capacity payment based tariffs have almost all been renegotiated and scuttled . the new govt basically went to the IPPs and told them to move to feed in tarrifs, or else.......
they had no choice


2. RE mix has increased while the gas guzzling FO mix has decreased . almost 1500MW is pure wind now in NTDC grid that costs WAPDA an average of 9 PKR / unit .. the same is sold at 14 RS off peak and 20 peak .. surplus cash here .. and tarrifs are all feed in

3.LNG based plants have flat FEED in tarriffs at 7 cents / unit . very feasible too ..

to cut it short, the situation isnt that bad anymore and the new govt can atleast now breathe


regarding EV and charging infrastructure, its impact on grid will be mitigated by fuel savings import bill reduction. i can gladly pay even 30 Rs per unit at a charging station . the govt wont lose here


i have talked to industry experts and even the CFO of nishat group .. all agree that EVs are feasible for pakistan... the choice of NOT introducing the IONIQ ev by hyundai was a pure corporate decision

I will wait a year or two before forming an opinion on the performance of the current govt w.r.t its auto industry policy and its alignment with energy policy.


There won't be massive import bill reduction. EV will still use electricity generated by a mixture that is FX heavy (Capex at initial stage, Fuel, ROE and Debt/Interest). Unless the situation improves ten years down the line (I hope so) we will still see big FX outflows resulting in still heavy payments one way or the other.

We will still be a consumption heavy economy assembling CKDs 10yrs down the line and profits will be repatriated by the companies abroad unless we see change in present policies of the govt in auto and energy sector.

Anyone can import a decent vehicle but we are not doing anyone a favor in long term if the money still has to go abroad for that instead of the local economy.

This is apart from the fact that the govt will have to provide rebates in order to reduce the cost of EV. Unless we source additional revenue to cover that gap we will be seeing another form of ballooning debt.

 

[RoadRunner401]

He maybe but my comment was about current priorities of GOVT

He is Indian he isn't interested in your country having a better future, his Comment was about bad mouthing Pakistan on the internet and suggesting Pakistan can't provide its industry.

 

[bananarepublic]

my friend , im in the power industry ( renewable to be precise ) , let me share something ;-

1. the poisonous ,capacity payment based tariffs have almost all been renegotiated and scuttled . the new govt basically went to the IPPs and told them to move to feed in tarrifs, or else.......
they had no choice


2. RE mix has increased while the gas guzzling FO mix has decreased . almost 1500MW is pure wind now in NTDC grid that costs WAPDA an average of 9 PKR / unit .. the same is sold at 14 RS off peak and 20 peak .. surplus cash here .. and tarrifs are all feed in

3.LNG based plants have flat FEED in tarriffs at 7 cents / unit . very feasible too ..

to cut it short, the situation isnt that bad anymore and the new govt can atleast now breathe


regarding EV and charging infrastructure, its impact on grid will be mitigated by fuel savings import bill reduction. i can gladly pay even 30 Rs per unit at a charging station . the govt wont lose here


i have talked to industry experts and even the CFO of nishat group .. all agree that EVs are feasible for pakistan... the choice of NOT introducing the IONIQ ev by hyundai was a pure corporate decision




even on grid, it is cost effective to charge your NISSAN leaf 2nd gen and get a 170 mile range on full charge

its pure fallacy and heresay these days to bash EVs when the same are being used for daily commutes all over the world

Any recommendations on how the government should introduce ev infrastructure in the country?
Also won't it damage relations with other manufacturers which have been given Greenfield status?

 

[Abdussamad]

how is an EV a rocket ship ?

- Everything different is a huge challenge when your people are illiterate and can't learn new things on their own. Our road side grease monkeys will never be able to handle EVs.

- Our auto cartel won't invest in making them. It's takes a lot of money to start assembling a new model car. It's going to be even more expensive when it's an entirely different sort of car. Attempts by other companies to enter our car market will be frustrated by our corrupt bureaucracy as shown in the article I quoted.

- Our consumers aren't interested in EVs either. They are very risk averse when it comes to buying cars. It is said that they think of the selling it before they've even bought it i.e. they worry about the resale value more than anything else! Besides there is no charging infrastructure in Pakistan.

So these are the reasons why it's effectively rocket science for Pakistanis!

 

[Pakhtoon yum]

Don't know as not my vehicle. I know that is supposed to happen but from what I heard the speed was not that high and the car should have fared better.

I have seen plenty of other examples of shoddy work by suzuki pakistan. For example the interior parts in older 2004 cultus were of better quality than in 2012 cultus.

W.r.t power, well it will take a lot of time. Cost of our energy mix is high and also raw material import heavy. More than half of our electricity production is via GAS/RLNG and Oil. We are supposed to bring it down to 31.21% by 2025 which seems optimistic considering we are lagging in adding capacity in Hydro, coal, Renewables and Nuclear.

Moreover, our transmission network needs significant upgrade/investment to handle the capacity. Their is no use of adding generation capacities if we can't get it dispatched to the grid.

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/circ...lion-by-july-2020.613381/page-2#post-11373352

Blame the government for their stupid auto policies. The safety and quality should be demanded to be that of universal standards or the company would be fined heavily.

 

[Zulfiqar]

Our so called billionaires and industry giants need to learn from this guy.

This is what I was referring to w.r.t increased localization of energy and product supply chain (did not read the article back then though).

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/feat...-being-built-by-billionaire-s-energy-absolute

 

[blueazure]

I will wait a year or two before forming an opinion on the performance of the current govt w.r.t its auto industry policy and its alignment with energy policy.


There won't be massive import bill reduction. EV will still use electricity generated by a mixture that is FX heavy (Capex at initial stage, Fuel, ROE and Debt/Interest). Unless the situation improves ten years down the line (I hope so) we will still see big FX outflows resulting in still heavy payments one way or the other.

We will still be a consumption heavy economy assembling CKDs 10yrs down the line and profits will be repatriated by the companies abroad unless we see change in present policies of the govt in auto and energy sector.

Anyone can import a decent vehicle but we are not doing anyone a favor in long term if the money still has to go abroad for that instead of the local economy.

This is apart from the fact that the govt will have to provide rebates in order to reduce the cost of EV. Unless we source additional revenue to cover that gap we will be seeing another form of ballooning debt.

1. talked to CFO nishat group. specifically asked him about EVs and why they are not introducing the Hyundai IONIQ Ev .

his reply - (a) . we cant market the range anxiety issue . (b) . we dont want to get in the supercharger business ( for now)


other than that, there are no barriers to EV in pakistan. ( his words ,not mine ) .. an EV has lesser parts, lesser input , lesser lead time to make ( ignore the baboon above who calls him abdus samad ) . its far profitable for OEM to sell EV vs a normal vehicle

a second gen nissan leaf or hyundai IONIQ isnt more expensive than a prius

2. auto industry is 80 percent localized, everything from steel 'chadars' used in body works to shocks and internal poshish is locally made ( except engine and certain electronics ) . local industry ( honda and toyota ) will have no problem switching to EVs once given the green light ( Hyundai already has incorported this ) ( again , not my words but from CFO nishat ) .

3. our local grid is well equipped and designed to handle EV load.

4. im getting a 10kW solar system in my home . you'de be surprised how cheap and efficient it is . local charging of EV at home is also no problem ( you are off grid here)

5. fuel mix has been greatly reduced over the last 5 years. now we are mosly gas / RLNG / coal and RE mix .. the govt's austerity is working

Any recommendations on how the government should introduce ev infrastructure in the country?
Also won't it damage relations with other manufacturers which have been given Greenfield status?

1. govt wont have to do anything . just let hyundai / KIA and TESLA come in and give them grid access to install super chargers. they will do the rest . .

https://www.tesla.com/supercharger

2. all manufacturers globally are moving to EV anyway , VW, BMW, toyota will be EV in 2025 ... so not much of a problem.

point is, our fuel import bills are killing us , , do we have a choice ????

 

[Syed1.]

1. talked to CFO nishat group. specifically asked him about EVs and why they are not introducing the Hyundai IONIQ Ev .

his reply - (a) . we cant market the range anxiety issue . (b) . we dont want to get in the supercharger business ( for now)


other than that, there are no barriers to EV in pakistan. ( his words ,not mine ) .. an EV has lesser parts, lesser input , lesser lead time to make ( ignore the baboon above who calls him abdus samad ) . its far profitable for OEM to sell EV vs a normal vehicle

a second gen nissan leaf or hyundai IONIQ isnt more expensive than a prius

2. auto industry is 80 percent localized, everything from steel 'chadars' used in body works to shocks and internal poshish is locally made ( except engine and certain electronics ) . local industry ( honda and toyota ) will have no problem switching to EVs once given the green light ( Hyundai already has incorported this ) ( again , not my words but from CFO nishat ) .

3. our local grid is well equipped and designed to handle EV load.

4. im getting a 10kW solar system in my home . you'de be surprised how cheap and efficient it is . local charging of EV at home is also no problem ( you are off grid here)

5. fuel mix has been greatly reduced over the last 5 years. now we are mosly gas / RLNG / coal and RE mix .. the govt's austerity is working




1. govt wont have to do anything . just let hyundai / KIA and TESLA come in and give them grid access to install super chargers. they will do the rest . .

https://www.tesla.com/supercharger

2. all manufacturers globally are moving to EV anyway , VW, BMW, toyota will be EV in 2025 ... so not much of a problem.

point is, our fuel import bills are killing us , , do we have a choice ????

Need people like you to post more to drown out the voices of the jahil unparhs

 

[Kabira]

1. govt wont have to do anything . just let hyundai / KIA and TESLA come in and give them grid access to install super chargers. they will do the rest . .

Govt can make EV cheaper with tax rebates. Vast majority of car owners in Pakistan don't live in flats so they will charge at home. Build charging stations in motorway/highway to take care of anxiety. Anyway I feel by the time EV get to Pakistan, 500km range will be norm even among low cost EV.

Less pollution and reduction in import bill will be worth it. BTW how much 10kW solar system along with batteries cost in Pakistan?

There won't be massive import bill reduction. EV will still use electricity generated by a mixture that is FX heavy (Capex at initial stage, Fuel, ROE and Debt/Interest). Unless the situation improves ten years down the line (I hope so) we will still see big FX outflows resulting in still heavy payments one way or the other.

Pakistan have almost passed out oil plants which are most expensive and dirty so you are wrong there.

We have no power for homes. Ecectric car owners will have skyrocketing bills.

It will still save them 700-800% vs buying oil/gas.

 

[Verve]

Less pollution and reduction in import bill will be worth it. BTW how much 10kW solar system along with batteries cost in Pakistan?

Around 10 lakhs.

 

[blueazure]

Need people like you to post more to drown out the voices of the jahil unparhs

once EVs start coming, everyone will be falling off each other to buy them .. we are a passive, laid back nation , what can i say

big auto makers have seen the writing on the wall and are in panic mode . toyota, honda, MErcedes have all been left behind by the likes of Tesla and Nissan / hyundai in the EV business.

the future of auto industry is like smartphones. all companies will be making electric rechargeable devices and nothing else ..

 

[Zulfiqar]

1. talked to CFO nishat group. specifically asked him about EVs and why they are not introducing the Hyundai IONIQ Ev .

his reply - (a) . we cant market the range anxiety issue . (b) . we dont want to get in the supercharger business ( for now)


other than that, there are no barriers to EV in pakistan. ( his words ,not mine ) .. an EV has lesser parts, lesser input , lesser lead time to make ( ignore the baboon above who calls him abdus samad ) . its far profitable for OEM to sell EV vs a normal vehicle

a second gen nissan leaf or hyundai IONIQ isnt more expensive than a prius

2. auto industry is 80 percent localized, everything from steel 'chadars' used in body works to shocks and internal poshish is locally made ( except engine and certain electronics ) . local industry ( honda and toyota ) will have no problem switching to EVs once given the green light ( Hyundai already has incorported this ) ( again , not my words but from CFO nishat ) .

3. our local grid is well equipped and designed to handle EV load.

4. im getting a 10kW solar system in my home . you'de be surprised how cheap and efficient it is . local charging of EV at home is also no problem ( you are off grid here)

5. fuel mix has been greatly reduced over the last 5 years. now we are mosly gas / RLNG / coal and RE mix .. the govt's austerity is working



point is, our fuel import bills are killing us , , do we have a choice ????

Pakistani auto market is not more competitive than the US or is it?

Look at mansha's previous investments:

IPPs with guaranteed payments via long term EPAs, DG Khan cement ( we all know about cement cartel), Real Estate, a big 4 bank (bought at discount) that has been his cash cow for more than 25+ years e.t.c e.t.c

Do you really think he is going to disrupt the status quo and work on complete supply chain end to end for EV.

He is just going to become another player like the previous ones and only looking for early realization of his investments. I have worked for his bank for 7 years. He is just going with the flow and not looking for innovation. If he was then he would have started working on a battery plant, started negotiation with the govt. for rebates on EV and leveraged upon his IPP's excess capacity for power wheeling to his charger network.

You are looking at it from consumer's perspective and are quite happy to let foreign players to come in and do all the work w.r.t superchargers and all but they are really not going to retain the profits here and at the end there will be heavy FX outflows every year which will only contribute further to our current account deficit considering our lack of exports (primarily due to rent seeking habit of our society). This model is not sustainable.

Whereas I am looking at it from the perspective where we can enhance the industrialization of our economy in such a way that we can reduce our recurring import bill down the line.

Pakistan have almost passed out oil plants which are most expensive and dirty so you are wrong there.

RFO is not the only thing we import. Unless we have found a significant source of gas to replace our RLNG import we are still looking at a decent outflow every year worth several billion dollars (excluding incremental outflow to cater to EVs). Renewables have low recurring opex but these are still imported from abroad with heavy capex so we are also looking at outflow there as well.

I also said FX heavy that is heavy dollar outflow not just for fuel purchase but outflow for importing machinery, payment of dividends, interest and principal installments on foreign investments e.t.c

The government is still focusing on FDI. They want every foreign company to invest here. FDI is not free. Everyone expects profit down the line and the FX outflow at the end will be in multiples of initial investment.

Pakistanis have ample money dumped in less than optimum investments.

The government should reform SECP and create conditions where maximum share of the investments is sourced from local capital in industries that boost exports or reduce imports.