Finland's leaders call for NATO membership 'without delay', Russia warns it will 'inflict serious damage'

[mulj]

Russia is going to jack about Finland and Sweden joining nato. The russian military has shown to be a paper tiger. All talk. Nothing more. The russian military talks big but can do jack s**t in real life as the ukraine war has shown.

It is not anymore particulary about Russia, i see it as gathering forces and mopping and cleaning backyard before imminent cold war with China.

 

[jhungary]

I am seeimg it trough real politic lences, no doubt that it is US lead organisation and that they are dictating things in it but as any organisation it is not linear entity and there are members with their own agendas and aspirations based on their own strenght amd this situation with Sweden and necessity of it is perfect opportunity for Turkie to squise as much as possible from it which is most realistic thing to expect, thinking opposite i would say is naive.

Well, up to a point.

As I said, at the end of the day, if it is coming down to a point where the West is going to choose between Turkey or Sweden and Finland, I can say for 90% certain that the West will choose Sweden and Finland over Turkey, and thinking of that 10% is navie, but then stranger things has become true as well. So this is more like what Turkey Want versus what US or the West willing to give, and hence I would say it is up to a point, if Turkey try to ask for something the West is not willing to give, they would probably just discard it.

Perhaps I am too jaded, and see thru a lot of Bullshit in Politics to come to this view. But well, there are no reason for me not to think otherwise.

 

[MisterSyed]

go ahead Finland do it

little Vady cant do Sh*t

Okay so a Aesthetic Synthwave Edit is what's making Finland join Nato? And Making Russia afraid of it?

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

It is not anymore particulary about Russia, i see it as gathering forces and mopping and cleaning backyard before imminent cold war with China.

Agreed, russia is history, China is the new global superpower.

 

[mulj]

Well, up to a point.

As I said, at the end of the day, if it is coming down to a point where the West is going to choose between Turkey or Sweden and Finland, I can say for 90% certain that the West will choose Sweden and Finland over Turkey, and thinking of that 10% is navie, but then stranger things has become true as well. So this is more like what Turkey Want versus what US or the West willing to give, and hence I would say it is up to a point, if Turkey try to ask for something the West is not willing to give, they would probably just discard it.

Perhaps I am too jaded, and see thru a lot of Bullshit in Politics to come to this view. But well, there are no reason for me not to think otherwise.

Well Turks have strong cards this time all legit and justified from established angles in game plan, i doubt that they will call it all on but some perks will be requested for sure as there are many on table.
We will see how it will goes in future, maybe hint of what I am saying is news that GB offered Tyfoons as replacement for their F16 fleet, enigne tech jV and similiar thing, if materialise that could be considered as result of backdoor diplomacy for their possible non veto stance.

 

[Oldman1]

Well, as I said, I only comment on fact and fractions. I have no interest on talking about what I think or what you think about Swedish or Turkish government

It's up to Turkish government to decide whether or not they will vote for or against Sweden and Finland joining. As I commented. it would be bad for Turkey to vote no, that does not mean they will vote yes. And neither me or you have any say within Turkish government, so what we think is a moot point.


As I said, i only laying out what is at play and what's the alternative.

Alternative is US and EU will not abandon Sweden and Finland in term of security, given if both country drop their neutrality and want to be part of Western Sphere of influence. So if Turkey vetoed. That would mean nothing to that because the US and EU would most likely uses other means to provide security to them.

That may or may not take Turkey out of the equation, and without Russia to lean on, there are no alternative to NATO at the moment, which mean Turkey would be in a bad position if US/EU migrate from NATO in order to protect Sweden and Finland.

And it is a known fact that the West is most likely choose Sweden and Finland over Turkey in defence matter.

I am not saying Turkey should be abandoned, or that we should isolate them, I think talks is important to have them on board, and I don't see how Turkey would actually veto it because there are a lot more to lose to Turkey than they would have gain. Which mean the old stick and carrot tricks would probably the way to go.

As for what the West should dangle in front of Turkey to make it? That's remain to be seen.

True, the UK initiated their own defense pact with them in case how long NATO approval will come or Turkey or some other country like Hungary may veto their membership.

 

[925boy]

Russia is NOT a powerful country. They are a paper tiger. Their military is all talk, nothing more. 7× smaller ukraine has shown this.

if all this is true then why hasnt NATO entered the Ukraine war directly yet? They've entered indirectly only. talk is cheap.

 

[Broccoli]

Turkish foreign minister said that his country won't oppose Finlands membership.

IL:n tiedot: Turkin ulkoministeri on kertonut Suomelle, että maan epäilyt koskevat Ruotsin Nato-jäsenyyttä, eivät Suomen

Turkin ulkoministeri Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu on kertonut Suomen valtionjohdolle, että maan julkisuudessa esittämät epäilyt eivät koske Suomen Nato-jäsenyyttä.

www.iltalehti.fi

 

[Abid123]

if all this is true then why hasnt NATO entered the Ukraine war directly yet? They've entered indirectly only. talk is cheap.

Because they are all bark no action. If they had any balls they would be in Ukraine right now fighting the Russians.

 

[nope]

Okay so a Aesthetic Synthwave Edit is what's making Finland join Nato? And Making Russia afraid of it?

No little Vlad the elf ling is making Finland and Sweden join NATO he has given it a new purpose
and a good thing too

long live democracy freedom and human rights for all and down with oriental despotism

 

[925boy]

Because they are all bark no action. If they had any balls they would be in Ukraine right now fighting the Russians.

DONE. because the moment NATO, sorry US enters Ukraine, that's US's BYE BYE to entering an Iran, China, or North Korea war.

Some top US navy official testified in Congress last week that his forces cant fight 2 wars simultaneously.

From what i'm seeing, this war has rejuvenated Russia- increased population support, increased commodities sales, increased financial resilience, increased support from global countries, increased eleverage in the energy market - Contextually, for a country in war, i have no idea how things are going "well" for Russia...the Ruble has brushed off the weak cheap azz dollar's pressure, Russia even forced its will on EU by making over 10 EU countries open Ruble accounts in Gazprom bank...whaat??????? Russia flipped the script and took charge of the narrative.

 

[Apollon]

Lol, Russia has failed to take a single city in Ukraine so far, so its no wonder Finland feels confident joining NATO. But do they have anything to gain from it? even if Russia tried to invade Finland their NATO "allies" might throw them under the bus like they did with the Ukrainians

Its because NATO that russia is destroyed in Ukraine.

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

if all this is true then why hasnt NATO entered the Ukraine war directly yet? They've entered indirectly only. talk is cheap.

Why enter when you could give the ukrainians the weapons to destroy and denigrate russia. That too when russia is more than 7x bigger than ukraine and is allegedly a superpower.

 

[dBSPL]

Well Turks have strong cards this time all legit and justified from established angles in game plan, i doubt that they will call it all on but some perks will be requested for sure as there are many on table.
We will see how it will goes in future, maybe hint of what I am saying is news that GB offered Tyfoons as replacement for their F16 fleet, enigne tech jV and similiar thing, if materialise that could be considered as result of backdoor diplomacy for their possible non veto stance.

Due to latest news, Finland has more reasonable stance politically and they seem to have noticed Turkey's sensitivities. But I don't think the process will be easy for Sweden.

On the other hand, at least 2 more countries that are members of the union and have VETO authority, although they are not very active in NATO's military wing, are opposing to NATO's baltic enlargement.

Btw, Turkey-England rapprochement you mentioned depends on slightly different geopolitical dynamics. In the long term, many aviation cooperations are on the table, but the replacing of the current F-16 fleet with EF is not among them. Turkey will continue to keep its F-16 fleet in its active inventory until the 2040s.

 

[jhungary]

Well Turks have strong cards this time all legit and justified from established angles in game plan, i doubt that they will call it all on but some perks will be requested for sure as there are many on table.
We will see how it will goes in future, maybe hint of what I am saying is news that GB offered Tyfoons as replacement for their F16 fleet, enigne tech jV and similiar thing, if materialise that could be considered as result of backdoor diplomacy for their possible non veto stance.

That is up to what US think it worth the hassle to negotiate with the Turks.

As I said, there are other options even Turkey did veto their NATO bids, it comes in either a non-binding rotation like the US did with Australia (there are 2 Marine Regiment permanently rotate in Australia) or a binding one for Permanent Force Agreement as in Japan or South Korea. They would probably have the vote needed to pass that in senate and have permanent force station in Finland and Sweden.

Unlike most other country in NATO that "leeched" on NATO, Finland and Sweden is not looking at the collective defence of all NATO member, they are big enough and advance enough they only need basically US, UK, Germany and France to contribute to their defence. So even if they can't join NATO, individual pact with US, Germany and France will be just as good. I mean, what's the point to want to have Latvia or Estonia or Poland to defend Sweden or Finland when their nordic military are several times bigger than them? Hell, Finland even have 3 times the force than UK and twice the force than France and Germany...

So in term of negotiation, I don't see Turkey is holding a lot of card that US or EU are going to bend it backward to have Turkey not to veto...If Turkey is asking for too much, they will probably just sign individual defence pact and that would be it.