FATA Situation

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Mr. Concerned,

If your question is with regards to the period after the PA went in to FATA, I think the answer is that the GoP mistakenly thought that there would be some loyalty to country, some influence, that might be leveraged to peacefully resolve the situation - hence the "peace deals" - which in hindsight have proven to be a huge debacle. Nonetheless, the GoP had to try this route, because if it hadn't, it would be damned by the Pakistani media and intelligentsia anyway. Not that they have backed off their criticism, but there is now a realization among many (though apparently still not among a large part of the Pakistani populace) that peace deals with the likes of Mehsud have not worked.

The GoP also placed a lot of faith in the efforts of former Governor Aurakzai, who hailed from the Tribal belt, and who argued in favor of the "peace deals". With the change of guard (Kayani), and the unilateral termination of the "deal" by Mehsud, along with strong evidence to his complicity in various suicide bombings in Pakistan (especially BB's) - Aurakzai resigned (or was forced to) and a more aggressive approach seems to have been taken - though it remains to be seen whether it will continue.

The GoP cannot be faulted for attempting a political solution first - it did however allow the Pakistani Taliban to strengthen.

Did Musharaff want to control them eventually? Did he want to eat his cake and have it too?

It is not simply a matter of what Musharaf wanted - Pakistani society in general still seems to believe that their "fellow Muslim brothers" only need someone to talk to them and resolve their grievances to make them come back to the "right path". The Pakistani Army is part of that same society, and while they may still follow orders, they probably share the same sentiments and fears and sympathy that Pakistanis may feel. Therefore a political solution had to be attempted.

 

[S-2]

"Therefore a political solution had to be attempted."

And still must. The difference is that all elements of Pakistani society need to be reached by the GoP. Aid, health services, and secular education to the troubled west. More education for the nation as a whole of the NATURE of the threat and MISSION imposed upon the armed forces by those who hijack religion to nefarious purpose.

The doctor's in the house and prescribes a sustained and holistic approach to healing. There are a lot of unique solutions now being pursued across the border. Some of those efforts will bear immediate, if superficial, fruit. Other techniques must embed the principles of governance from the government down to the citizen over a long-term process.

Not all is even remotely applicable to Pakistan. Some lessons, however, would be. So too from Pakistan to our forces and PRTs in Afghanistan. I think botanists and biologists might call it "cross-fertilization". Certainly our common opponent has engaged in such. So must we.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

"Therefore a political solution had to be attempted."

And still must. The difference is that all elements of Pakistani society need to be reached by the GoP. Aid, health services, and secular education to the troubled west. More education for the nation as a whole of the NATURE of the threat and MISSION imposed upon the armed forces by those who hijack religion to nefarious purpose.

I agree that efforts to reach a political solution should never be dropped - my concern is about what exactly has to be given up in order for the opposition to be pacified. You mention "secular education, "health services" etc. - I would argue that education itself, and in some cases health services (Mullah FM's, or was it Faqir Muhammed, resistance to polio vaccinations) indicate that for the "groups" we are fighting, nothing save for a complete implementation of their obscurantist interpretation of "Shariah" will suffice.

So it would be appropriate that the political dialog should be primarily carried out with the Pashtun populace, rather than the Taliban groups. The Taliban groups are not in this for "education" or "development", though it could be argued that they get support from people because of a lack of those things. Add to that the conservative nature of the Tribal belt, and the "secular education" idea is dead before arrival, indeed it might turn into a catalyst for more resentment and violence.

I think in the foreseeable future, the approach the GoP is taking in Swat, to announce a Shariah package (Under the Federal Shariah Court - therefore retaining a modest amount of control over what kind of "shariah" is implemented) is probably going to be the only way to engage in a "political dialog" that will both sway the Tribal populace over to the GoP's side (using the Islam card - Shariah) and deny the Taliban the ability to use "Un Islamic Government" as a propaganda tool - and therefore placate them.

The other option is to continue to hammer them into the ground, and try and initiate development in the areas that are cleared out and win over the population by doing what you suggested, and impose the constitution that all other Pakistanis are governed by - however Pakistan would face a number of obstacles in making that approach a success. We already have limited resources and the economy has taken a hit with the Taliban/AQ attacks in Pakistan proper. Even with the Taliban on the run such attacks will continue to occur (as seen in Swat) and they will continue to bolster the impression of instability in the Tribal belt (and Pakistan), and that will mean that economic investment in Pakistan will continue to fall, which even further reduces the amount of resources the GoP has to work with. Worst case scenario is that the economic strain starts affecting all Pakistanis, and then you have a multitude of other problems that exacerbate the original problem.

Projects like the Economic Zones (duty free exports to the US) being planned for FATA are probably the only thing that might offer a large enough incentive for investment to flow into the area, even with a low level insurgency. But even that has not materialized yet, and the final decisions on the scope of the industry to be allowed to operate in those zones, and how long these zones will exist (current proposals call for a ten year limit deemed to short for any major, long term investments to occur), still have to be cleared up. There is really nothing else in the works that could offset the economic downturn that would occur were an implementation of some sort of Shariah not undertaken to wean away support from the Taliban and "politically neutralize" them.

 

[t-birds]

By ISHTIAQ MAHSUD, Associated Press Writer

DERA ISMAIL KHAN, Pakistan - A coalition of Taliban militants in northwestern Pakistan on Wednesday declared an "indefinite" cease-fire in fighting against Pakistani security forces.

Maulvi Mohammed Umar, a purported spokesman for the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, an umbrella group for militants operating in tribal areas along the border with Afghanistan, said that the cease-fire was declared following talks with the government.

Pakistan army spokesman Maj. Gen. Athar Abbas denied knowledge of any talks and said they had no formal communication from the militants of a cease-fire. But he said that militants in South Waziristan had stopped firing on security forces.

"Since the last 48 hours or so they have stopped firing and moved a little back. We would look into this, but so far the position is the operation will continue until the time we finish off the miscreants and their hideouts and their arms and ammunitions caches," Abbas told The Associated Press.

Tehrik-e-Taliban is led by Baitullah Mehsud, who is based in the lawless South Waziristan region, which has borne the brunt of the violence. He is also blamed for a series of suicide attacks, including the Dec. 27 assassination of opposition leader Benazir Bhutto.

"The declaration of war we made against security forces on orders by Baitullah Mehsud. We now withdraw that for an indefinite period," Umar told the AP by telephone.

Umar said the cease-fire will cover the tribal regions — a lawless, semiautonomous belt that includes North and South Waziristan — as well as in Swat, a former tourist destination where security forces have battled followers of a radical, pro-Taliban cleric.

In January, Mehsud fighters launched a series of assaults on military bases in South Waziristan, underscoring government's weak grip on the region that U.S. officials say is a safe haven for al-Qaida.

Last week, a U.S. missile strike killed Abu Laith al-Libi, a top al-Qaida commander, in neighboring North Waziristan.

The recent wave of violence has pitched Pakistan deeper into turmoil as it heads toward Feb. 18 elections meant to usher back democracy after eight years of military rule.

But any agreement by Pakistan to a cease-fire would likely be frowned on by its Western allies. A cease-fire in North Waziristan in September 2006, which collapsed the following July, was widely seen as giving Taliban and al-Qaida a freer hand to stage cross-border attacks into Afghanistan and expand their reach inside Pakistan.

 

[Umama Qaiser]

Any difference between militants in FATA and militants in Kashmir ?.
Both fighting in name of ISLAM.

 

[Spring Onion]

Bomb blast at Parachinar

By MUNIR AHMAD, Associated Press Writer
50 minutes ago



ISLAMABAD, Pakistan - A bombing outside an election office in northwestern Pakistan killed four people and wounded 12 others Saturday, an opposition party spokesman said.

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The reports came from party workers in an area bordering Afghanistan, said Farhatullah Babar, a spokesman for the Pakistan People's Party of slain opposition leader Benazir Bhutto.

The explosion came two days before parliamentary elections considered crucial to restoring democracy after eight years of military rule under President Pervez Musharraf.

Zafar Ali, a party supporter at the scene, said the explosion occurred after a car rammed into an election office.

"Several of our party members are lying in a pool of blood," he said. "We are taking the injured and dumping them into pickup vans to bring them to the hospital."

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information. AP's earlier story is below.

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan (AP) — Suspected militants bombed a polling station in northwest Pakistan on Saturday, two days before parliamentary elections considered crucial to restoring democracy.

More than a dozen bombs heavily damaged a partially constructed jail that was to be used for voting in Khar, the main town in the Bajur area along the border with Afghanistan, said Mowaz Khan, tribal police officer Mowaz Khan. He said the bombs were detonated by remote control. Nobody was hurt.

Monday's elections are taking place against a backdrop of rising Islamic militancy throughout Pakistan, and many candidates have been discouraged from holding large rallies. Security fears are running highest along the lawless tribal area near the Afghan border.

The Dec. 27 assassination of opposition leader Benazir Bhutto and a string of suicide bombings — some targeting campaign rallies — have been blamed on al-Qaida- or Taliban-linked militants.

The government has deployed 81,000 soldiers to back up 392,000 police assigned to protect voters, said military spokesman Maj. Gen. Athar Abbas.

Recent opinion surveys show the opposition poised for a landlide victory amid disenchantment with eight years of military rule under President Pervez Musharraf.

Although Musharraf is not up for re-election, he could face impeachment if the opposition wins a two-thirds majority in the legislature.

Opposition politicians fear the results will be manipulated in hopes of assuring the ruling party enough seats to block any impeachment.

Kanwar Dilshad, the No. 2 official in Pakistan's Election Commission, insisted there would be no rigging.

"We are neutral. A level playing field has been provided to all the contesting candidates, and we are doing our job to ensure free, fair, transparent and peaceful elections," Dilshad told The Associated Press.

Last week, New York-based Human Rights Watch questioned the election commission's impartiality, saying it has ignored complaints of harrassment against opposition candidates.

On Friday, Sen. Joseph Biden, Delaware Democrat who head of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said the United States should consider cutting off military aid to Pakistan if the elections are rigged.

Saturday's bombing came a day after police announced they had seized bomb-making materials and arrested 10 suspected Taliban-linked militants in Karachi, where some 150 people died in an October suicide attack that narrowly missed Bhutto. She died 10 weeks later in a second attack.

The militants had a long list of targets, including politicians, law enforcers, businessmen and army officials. They had set up a laboratory in an industrial area in Karachi to prepare poisons and explosives and for training recruits, provincial police chief Azhar Farooqi said.

The suspects had been arrested last month but the arrests were only announced Friday after investigations, he said.

On Saturday, police arrested a man found with a suicide vest in Hyderabad, about 100 miles north of Karachi, said regional police chief Shaukat Shah.

 

[Spring Onion]

The death toll has risen to 27


RIP

 

[Spring Onion]

blast kills 27

By MUNIR AHMAD, Associated Press Writer
2 minutes ago



ISLAMABAD, Pakistan - A suicide bomber rammed a car laden with explosives into an election office in northwestern Pakistan Saturday, killing 27 people two days ahead of a crucial parliamentary vote, government officials said.

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More than 90 were wounded. Most of the victims appeared to members of the opposition Pakistan People's Party, formerly headed by the slain Benazir Bhutto, said Mushtaq Hussain, an administrative official in the volatile tribal region bordering Afghanistan where the attack took place.

He said a suicide bomber apparently "rammed his explosive-laden car into the election office."

Interior Minister Hamid Nawaz said 27 people were killed and more than 90 wounded.

"Several of our party members are lying in a pool of blood," said Zafar Ali, a party supporter at the scene.

The attack in Parachinar, an area bordering Afghanistan, came two days before parliamentary elections considered crucial to restoring democracy in Pakistan after eight years of military rule under President Pervez Musharraf.

Monday's elections will take place against a backdrop of rising Islamic militancy throughout Pakistan, and many candidates have been discouraged from holding large rallies. Security fears are highest in lawless tribal areas along the Afghan border.

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information. AP's earlier story is below.

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan (AP) — A suicide bomber rammed a car laden with explosives into an election office in northwestern Pakistan Saturday, killing 14 people two days ahead of a crucial parliamentary vote, an official in the volatile tribal region said.

More than 40 people were injured. Most of the victims appeared to members of the opposition Pakistan People's Party, formerly headed by the slain Benazir Bhutto, said Mushtaq Hussain, an administrative official in the area.

He said a suicide bomber apparently "rammed his explosive-laden car into the election office," killing at least 14 and injuring more than 40.

"Several of our party members are lying in a pool of blood," said Zafar Ali, a party supporter at the scene. "We are taking the injured and dumping them into pickup vans to bring them to the hospital."

The attack in Parachinar, an area bordering Afghanistan, came two days before parliamentary elections considered crucial to restoring democracy in Pakistan after eight years of military rule under President Pervez Musharraf.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Any difference between militants in FATA and militants in Kashmir ?.
Both fighting in name of ISLAM.

There are differences. However you have multiple groups of people and organizations fighting in both places, so there are similarities between some of those groups and org.'s.

The Kashmiri militants, as far as I know, are only fighting in Kashmir. The AQ types - Arabs, Chechen's, Pakistanis, Afghanis etc. from outside Kashmir - belonging to various organizations may share the same ideological base whether they are fighting in Kashmir or FATA.

 

[Proud to be Pakistani]

There are differences. However you have multiple groups of people and organizations fighting in both places, so there are similarities between some of those groups and org.'s.

The Kashmiri militants, as far as I know, are only fighting in Kashmir. The AQ types - Arabs, Chechen's, Pakistanis, Afghanis etc. from outside Kashmir - belonging to various organizations may share the same ideological base whether they are fighting in Kashmir or FATA.

Agno,

What if you were a Afghan or Kashmiri?

Would you fight against the agressor and feel that it is not a just cause to fight against an agressor?

It is not the fight in the name of Islam..........Its what western media pumps into the mind of people.

It is only a fight against supression and for Freedom!

Agreed that mostly becomes unjust with innocent people being killed. Which is against Islam and its principles but that is my point. It is not a war they are fighting for Islam but it is what they are fighting against the people who want to erase them and who want to supress their right of freedom.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

P2BP:

Ignoring Kashmir for now, its too simplistic to argue that the "taliban are struggling against oppression". There own rule in Afghanistan brought about plenty of "oppression and misery' for the Pashtuns and other communities. That is not to say the Northern Alliance leadership was any better. Indians and some Westerners like to sing the praises of Ahmed Masood, but conveniently forget the 700 (Heratis I think) he massacred along with other abuses.

If you think about what NATO is fighting for in Afghanistan, whether you disagree with the rationale (though I think the invasion was necessary after the Taliban refused to hand over AQ leaders), it is not something any freedom loving Afghan should protest. The Taliban can negotiate a power sharing arrangement, and participate in a political process and work to make such a political process transparent and fair. They choose not to, instead murdering civilians suspected of being spies, creating a law and order situation that has allowed AQ to flourish, and keeping Afghanistan unstable.

 

[MastanKhan]

Hi,

New info coming out on missile strike in FATA re LIBI


U.S. strikes in Pakistan — without notice - Washington Post - MSNBC.com

 

[Energon]

Hi,

New info coming out on missile strike in FATA re LIBI


U.S. strikes in Pakistan — without notice - Washington Post - MSNBC.com

I'm actually not surprised. This course of action was to be expected.

 

[Asghar]

Hi,

New info coming out on missile strike in FATA re LIBI

U.S. strikes in Pakistan — without notice - Washington Post - MSNBC.com

That story is from three weeks ago when Abu Laith al-Libi, a senior al-Qaeda commander was reported to be killed.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

The crux of the matter:

We'll get these one-off flukes once every eight months or so, but that's still not a strategy -- it's not a plan. Every now and then something will come together. What that serves to do [is] it tamps down discussion about whether there is a better way to do it."

This is still no substitute for lasting peace, nor are these tactics going to make much of a difference in the overall war. Since a NATO invasion is improbable, and a new Govt. soon to be in charge, how will the dice roll now? I do see pressure from the US on the PPP to "do more" as being a deal breaker for any PML-N/PPP alliance.