Falling off our map: By neglecting the economic paradigm Pakistan has become irrelevant to India

[harpoon]

Entry of new member need unanimity. So China is out as long as India does not acquiescence to its entry in SAARC.

And after soft coup done by India in Sri Lanka, be sure that nobody except you would go sharply against India.







And how much is CAR worth to India. A billion? 2 billion? 10 billion!!

The point I am making is that CAR has no economic potential except being a source of natural gas to India; a sector in which China has massively outbid us; and frankly why it should not! CAR gas is on its borders thus accruing very low transportation costs . It would be like Bangladesh having large deposits of gas.

The very small leverage of access to CAR that Pakistan has over India is very very small due to lack of economic potential of CAR. Had it been Europe or USA ,instead of CAR, things would have been different.

Also India could gain access to CAR via Iran. The current Chahbar project that India is executing is more of a "fцck Pakistan/Gwadar" project. On purely economic basis, it does not make any sense for India to invest in Chabhar for aforementioned reasons. India is financing it to ensure that Pakistan would not have a chockhold on Afghanistan and getting access to CAR is more of an afterthought.It also create competition for Gwadar, Gwadar which already hs to compete with Dubai for maritime traffic would be further undermined in another major port comes up just 170 Km away from its current location.

This is the reason that GoI never bartered any concession for gaining access to CAR , with Pakistan.

I had always wondered at the CAR obsession of PDF Indians. Let the Russians and Chinese have it, after all its in their background. Lets concentrate on places like Africa which has real growth potential rather than chasing the CAR mirage.

 

[temp1994]

I had always wondered at the CAR obsession of PDF Indians. Let the Russians and Chinese have it, after all its in their background. Lets concentrate on places like Africa which has real growth potential rather than chasing the CAR mirage.

Our government is more intelligent than PDF posters. Had it wanted CAR access or MFN status so badly, it may have offered some concession to Pakistan like on Dams in Kashmir.

 

[Bang Galore]

People will keep living in some la-la land...History is there for all of us to see...India's overwhelming response viz-a-viz Kashmir surprised Pakistan top brass in 65 and 99..This shows the resolve and status that Kashmir enjoys here....Now if you consider early 90's then you will find India was most vulnerable in 91..this was the time when USSR was all broke...we were on the verge of bankruptcy....terrorism in Kashmir(both local and sponsored) was at its peak...not even talking about situation in Punjab and North-East...In short USSR trouble shook our strategic position....economically shattered and bleeding profusely with thousand cut philosophy of Pakistan....we didn't blink even then...now can anyone point me out anymore desperate situation then what i pointed above?? When we didn't blink then may i know the probability that we will now??

Why is why we owe our thanks to General Musharraf. India was its weakest in the 1990's, the economic situation was still in the doldrums, the world had just seen the Bosnia war after the collapse of Yugoslavia, many eastern European countries were free & the Soviet Union had broken up. Similarly there was the East Timor issue & the world was by & large sympathetic to these "freedom" movements. In Vajpayee, there was a leader that Indians trusted & who might have been able to sell a territorial give away. Any solution following the Lahore declaration would have resulted in India ceding territory. Luckily Kargil happened, the whole thing went into cold storage & then 9/11 would follow & the world had moved decisively in a different direction. By 2004, Pakistan's position was bad enough to change the compromise into a solution not requiring actual change in ownership of territory. Post 26/11 in 2008, there is even less interest inside of India to reach a solution with Pakistan. The world has seen both an upsurge in democracy movements in the Islamic world & the unintended consequences. Contrary to what was said, there is absolutely no interest in the wider world whatsoever on Kashmir except as a potential flashpoint. Pakistan's image as a trouble maker & India's own transformation in the last decade & a half economically & in its influence with its diaspora in the U.S & U.K. makes India's position the most comfortable in the last 3 decades. As you said,if there was no give then, there is no chance of any give now.

Musharraf should be in line to get a Bharat Ratna for services rendered to the Indian nation (even if unintentionally), I can only pity those Indians who criticise him for Kargil.

 

[itachiii]

there is a lot of room for compromise on Indian side.. Indian leaders indicated anything short of azadi is possible.
its just that we have hardened our stance recently which makes any climbdown look like surrender.

The basic reasons are moral and practical one, we got no business in being in the valley. Once israel palestine is solved world will turn their eye to our misdeeds there, and the pressure will be unbearable.
We will gain a lot from constantly not bickering with our neighbour in every forum, more trade with all our partners in saarc region.

India is no Israel, palestine is no kashmir, pakistanis are no Arabs...

 

[livingdead]

India is no Israel, palestine is no kashmir, pakistanis are no Arabs...

I noticed ..

 

[Jackdaws]

Pakistan could make itself relevant if it wanted to. Shame that it would rather be Mongolia to China than Canada to USA vis-a-vis its relationship with India.

 

[Umair Nawaz]

Never had racial ideals nor have this issue of "loyalty" but if that is what you learnt with your life I could not care less, I guess its good that Bangladesh broke off considering that the other side thought itself as the only Pakistanis.. perhaps with ideas like yours we will get some more pieces of the country.. the Baloch are in line after all.People like you are ample proof for me to focus my Loyalty to the country I live in.

The rest of your post has little relevance to the actual idea of "Pakistan's importance to India" and more about trying to feel good about Pakistan's position by brining in other economic developments.. nothing related to the issue at hand. I have little interest in focusing my energy on burying my head in the ground and focusing on pointless derailments.

point is that there is nothing that india offers pakistan either.

 

[SQ8]

As an example, Pakistan's trade with China which it considers as its 'all weather friend' is just $14 billion whereas Sino-Indian trade stands at $70 billion, $100 billion by next year and slated to reach $500 billion by 2020-22! Pakistan needs to change its economic and trade paradigms and seriously consider opening trade with India as it would benefit the people of Pakistan most considering that as neighbors, Indo-Pak trade can touch $20 billion or thereabouts within a short span of time. This would be a win-win situation for both countries, more so for Pakistan.

That is too unfair a comparison. For starters both Indians and Pakistanis forget that the difference in the size of both geography and population is not comparable at all as such. There is NO way that Pakistan's trade with China will match India, all weather friend or not; the difference in population size alone makes India a massive market compared to Pakistan. To top it off, technically Pakistan has a single entry point with China via some seriously inhospitable terrain...compared to that the terrain between China and India is still diverse and they share a massive border.

The same way, whilst trade with BD will have its benefits to India.. the amount of trade that it can achieve with Pakistan vis-a-vis BD is going to be disparate.. and BD will never be able to match that market .

 

[Stephen Cohen]

India Bangladesh Trade is already LARGER than India Pakistan trade

India-Bangladesh trade may almost double to $10 billion by 2018: CII - timesofindia-economictimes

compared to that the terrain between China and India is still diverse and they share a massive border.

India China trade over LAND border is very small in amount and volume

Just one or two border outposts like Nathula
Bulk of the trade is from the sea
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Not just Indians but even Americans have been saying the same thing

Google

 

[kadamba-warrior]

I think it was not the different evolution path India and Pakistan took, but more to do with no contacts or trade or connections between our countries. We lived isolated from each other for the past 67 years. It would have made no difference to me if Pakistan were not our neighbor but is located in Mars

True that! Despite horrendous acts of violence during Partition, both countries were less hostile to each other if not friendly - perhaps due to stronger people to people contacts.

With those people to people contacts fading away and also the last 3 wars adding massive dosage of fire/mistrust to an already unfriendly relationship, I think we have grown to be much more hostile towards each other now than ever before since independence.

I personally feel that 1965 war was the TURNING POINT in our relationships. From then on, it just went downhill never to recover again.

 

[pakdefender]

ahahaha ... so , Pakistan is so irrelevant that Ashok felt the need to write about it, send it to editor of TOI to get it published , then his article makes his way to PDF to be followed by six pages of comment from his fellow indians , irrelevant ehhh ?

 

[Jayanta]

We just want a free Kashmir. What India does or does not do after that does not bother us.

65 years now....hasn't happened....isn't going to happen in another 100 years...best of luck..keep trying.

 

[kadamba-warrior]

there is a lot of room for compromise on Indian side.. Indian leaders indicated anything short of azadi is possible.
its just that we have hardened our stance recently which makes any climbdown look like surrender.

Notwithstanding any compromising formulations from any political party throughout independent history in India, the territorial integrity of India (or what was left of India) was never up for compromise. Period. And with good reasons too.

People tend to think that India holds on to Kashmir with its dear life ONLY for the strategic gains or water or the territory! But Kashmir is much more fundamental to India's own SURVIVAL than any of the strategic gains that it provides (and it provides plenty!).

If you compromise on Kashmir, you are only perpetuating the religion-based secessionist movements. Where will it end? In short, India would have held onto Kashmir even if it was some nuclear wasteland - just to put an end to any more religion-based partitions.

The basic reasons are moral and practical one, we got no business in being in the valley. Once israel palestine is solved world will turn their eye to our misdeeds there, and the pressure will be unbearable.

WTF are you talking about? What misdeeds?

We will gain a lot from constantly not bickering with our neighbour in every forum, more trade with all our partners in saarc region.

You really ought to be naive if you believe that compromising on Kashmir will end hostilities between India and Pakistan! The day we compromise on Kashmir with Pakistan despite all their indiscretion, it will only embolden them and the other Jihadists! They will know exactly what they can get away with and be rewarded in the process too.

 

[timetravel]

Pakistan will get peace in only two situations.

1) Breakup of India. (something they are trying for 70 years)

or

2) Breakup of Pakistan. (reality of what's actually happening due to their own negative mindset)

I don't think other then complete breakup of India, there is anything else which will make Pakistani leaders sleep peacefully in night.

Giving Kashmir is no solution. It is just step 1 for Pakistan in gradual disintegration of India. So anyone in India thinks giving Kashmir is gonna satisfy Pakistani leaders is not thinking correctly.

 

[The BrOkEn HeArT]

Pakistan will not get anything, nor bussiness nor "bus" as long as Mr. MODI is in power . Modi will help Pakistan to grow only on two condition one Pakistan leave kashmir issue, second handover all its nuke arsnels to India. Bitter but truth.