dBSPL
SENIOR MEMBER
- Joined
- Mar 2, 2018
- Messages
- 7,661
- Reaction score
- 28
- Country
- Location
The armed leader in the eastern part of Libya, Khalifa Hafter, demanded reassurance and an important role in the state in exchange for withdraw from Tripoli. This situation is assessable as "an honorable exit" after the defeats in Tripoli.
According to Gassan Selame's(UN Special Envoy for Libya) recent interview with the French newspaper Liberation , he said Hafter's request for "assurance and an important role in the state" from GNA to withdraw from Tripoli.
Although the UN has tried to avoid this statement, which has aroused wide press coverage in the press, Hafter's spokesman Ahmed al-Mismari said "Hafter will never negotiate about to gain an important position in new goverment".
However, the defeat in the city of Giryan and the fact that the GNA forces have made serious progress towards the administrative border of the city of Terhune in the southeast of the capital show that the Hafter forces have faltered.
3 stages in the war of Tripoli
The clashes between Hafter forces and internationally legitimate GNA troops that have lasted for more than 5 months in and around Tripoli can be handled in 3 stages.
The first phase, in which Hafter forces rapidly seized many cities in the western part of the country, is followed by the second phase in which the GNA troops are regaining control over the lost and recovered areas.
In the third stage, it is seen that GNA troops are attacking and Hafter forces are defending.
1. The rapid advance of Hafter forces
Hafter forces seized most of the cities in the west of the country as part of the Tripoli attack on April 4. The cities of Sabrata, Surman, Giryan and Terhune came under the control of Hafter forces without fighting at a record speed.
In the first week of the attack, the cities of Aziziye, Zehra, Saidiye and Amiriyye were taken under control.
The participation of Terhune 9th Brigade strengthened Hafter's hand. The forces of Hafter moved to the capital with the brigade troops in Terhune and seized the towns of Suk al-Hamis, Suk es-Sebt, Suk al-Ehad, Es-Sebia.
The southern neighborhoods of Tripoli were falling down one by one, and there seemed to be no force to repel this progress which is coming from the east. After Kasr Bin Gashir Neighborhood, Hafter forces made great progress in Ayn Zara and Vadi er-Rebi neighborhoods. Later, some of the dormant cells in the region also supported the Hafter forces and captured the neighborhood of Es-Sevani.
The attack on the former strategic Tripoli Airport was followed by the advance of Hafter forces. A few days after Hafter's attack, Tripoli was like a wounded prey, preparing to breathe its last breath.
2. GNA troops repelling attacks
In the second week of the attacks, the capital took a sigh of relief, when Misrata(The city where Turkish roots/Kulogulları are most powerful) began to reach support to Tripoli and GNA troops from the cities of Zaviye and Zintan to the west. At the same time, the forces of the Hafter from the east were stopped and GNA started to defend around the center of the capital.
In the second stage, GNA forces started to take back the regions that they lost at the beginning of the attack and regained control in the districts of Verşefane, especially Aziziye. Sevani Neighborhood near the old airport was also rescued from Hafter forces.
During this period, GNA troops also cut a thousand kilometers of air and land supply lines of Hafter forces. Cufra Air Base, which Hafter forces used as ammunition depot, was targeted. Hafter forces was start to feeling Lack of ammunition and fuel while conflicts fronts difficulties getting even more.
This explains why the Hafter forces surrendered on many fronts, a decline in motivation, and some of them fleeing from conflict zones to their eastern families.
The forces of Hafter, who were on the verge of ending the Tripoli war in almost a few days, have been unable to achieve any tangible progress, except for the air strikes that have killed civilians and immigrants for months.
Now Hafter and his commanders future are at stake for war crimes judgement by the International Criminal Court (ICC) because of these attacks, targeting civilians and immigrants . This erroneous policy has pushed France, one of the international supporters, to an undecided position.
Hafter declined on all fronts on the western axis (Sevani, Zehra, Aziziye, Kerimiyye, Saidiye, Amiriyye, Hira). The breakthrough development in this context was that the Hafter forces lost Giryan in a surprise attack on June 26, located south of the capital, the center of operation.
3. The transition of Hafter forces from attack to defense
After stopping the attacks of Hafter troops, GNA forces started to re-seize the regions they lost and in the third stage they started to attack the Hafter regions. Hafter forces also moved from defense to defense.
In the early days of August, GNA troops advanced from eastern Tripoli to the outskirts of Terhune in the southeast of the capital, and for the first time forced the 9th Brigade to retreat outside the city's administrative borders.
GNA troops intensified their attacks on the positions of the 9th Brigade in Terhune and its vicinity.
However, the 9th Brigade also attacked the populated areas of the capital from the air. Dozens of civilians lost their lives in these attacks. The prisoners of GNA troops were subjected to lethal torture. Currently, information about the majority of these prisoners is not available.
- Implementation of the ancient military tactic in Terhune
Terhune is a key point, although the main goal of GNA is to move Hafter forces away from the southern suburbs of the capital. After the loss of Giryan, the control of the Hafter forces in Terhune, which became the center of operations of the Hafter forces, would mean the destruction of the front line of the Hafter forces.
When Terhune is seized, Hafter forces will now be besieged on all fronts and ammunition paths will be blocked. Thus, the 9th Brigade will have to withdraw its troops from the capital, Tripoli, to protect its city.
This reminds us of the military tactic that how the Romans prevailed in the Battle of Carthage in 218-201 BCE by preventing the transportation of supplies against Hannibal, the Carthaginian commander.
The attack on Terhune will also save GNA's capital. Thus the battlefield will change direction from the southern suburbs of Tripoli to the neighborhoods and streets of Terhune.
- The latest situation on the Terhune front
Terhune is almost besieged. GNA troops have been pressuring to cut off the supply line between Terhune and Kasr bin Gashir and the old airport by launching attacks from El-Kura Boli in the north and Es-Sebia and Suk al-Hamis in the west.
GNA troops can also attack Terhune from Misellata on the eastern front and cut off the supply line between Terhune and Beni Walid in the south.
Residents of Terhune have been suffering from water shortages for 4 months, as well as lack of fuel since the attacks on the capital. In addition, the city is experiencing financial problems. The continuation of the conflicts increases the siege status of the city, which has no airport or maritime transport.
The fall of the Terhune front is also key for GNA to regain control over Beni Walid air base. An attack on the strategically important Cufra Airbase from Beni Walid in the south of Tripoli can be carried out or the Hafter control in the cities and municipalities in the Fizan region in the southwest of the country can be terminated.
- Hafter situation in the southern regions
Hafter forces failed to maintain control despite the heavy air strikes in the city of Merzuk in Fizan, southwest of the country. This failure in the city of Merzuk can be regarded as an indication of the "fragility" of Hafter's control in the Fezzan region.
It may not be too difficult for GNA troops to take back this large and sparsely populated area if they deal with southern tribes. Especially given that Hafter had drawn a significant part of his troops to the north to concentrate on Tripoli.
- Situation of Hafter's allied brigades
When you look at the clashes that have left behind 5 months in Tripoli and its vicinity, it is seen that Hafter is not on the way to "victory is close", which he said before.
It is observed that Hafter's troops from the eastern part of the country have lost their enthusiasm for war and want to return home.
Zintan Brigades are divided in two as a results of attacks against Tripoli. This can lead to an outrage within them, and no one in the city can survive the civil war that will erupt in Terhune.
The commanders of the Verfefane Brigade, an ally of Hafter, were betrayed by an air raid on their cities of the 9th Brigade of Terhune. This shows a tough field of internal struggle between Hafter's allies, which are left.
The international pressure against Haftere, which does not seem very promising, is also on the rise. While France is backing down its support, Egypt does not want to take part in this blood-losing war. Egypt's deep economic problems may be another reason why this motivation is broken.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) situation is a matter of curiosity. It is not known to what extent Abu Dhabi will use the "moral legacy" of the relations established by the late Sheikh Zayid, the founder of the UAE, at the time of the international embargo on Libya.
After all,probably Hafter seems to have no other way than to negotiate to save himself, his troops and his country from the worst-case scenario.
graphics and content source : https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/trablusun-guneyinde-hezimete-ugrayan-hafter-cikis-ariyor/1582981
According to Gassan Selame's(UN Special Envoy for Libya) recent interview with the French newspaper Liberation , he said Hafter's request for "assurance and an important role in the state" from GNA to withdraw from Tripoli.
Although the UN has tried to avoid this statement, which has aroused wide press coverage in the press, Hafter's spokesman Ahmed al-Mismari said "Hafter will never negotiate about to gain an important position in new goverment".
However, the defeat in the city of Giryan and the fact that the GNA forces have made serious progress towards the administrative border of the city of Terhune in the southeast of the capital show that the Hafter forces have faltered.
3 stages in the war of Tripoli
The clashes between Hafter forces and internationally legitimate GNA troops that have lasted for more than 5 months in and around Tripoli can be handled in 3 stages.
The first phase, in which Hafter forces rapidly seized many cities in the western part of the country, is followed by the second phase in which the GNA troops are regaining control over the lost and recovered areas.
In the third stage, it is seen that GNA troops are attacking and Hafter forces are defending.
1. The rapid advance of Hafter forces
Hafter forces seized most of the cities in the west of the country as part of the Tripoli attack on April 4. The cities of Sabrata, Surman, Giryan and Terhune came under the control of Hafter forces without fighting at a record speed.
In the first week of the attack, the cities of Aziziye, Zehra, Saidiye and Amiriyye were taken under control.
The participation of Terhune 9th Brigade strengthened Hafter's hand. The forces of Hafter moved to the capital with the brigade troops in Terhune and seized the towns of Suk al-Hamis, Suk es-Sebt, Suk al-Ehad, Es-Sebia.
The southern neighborhoods of Tripoli were falling down one by one, and there seemed to be no force to repel this progress which is coming from the east. After Kasr Bin Gashir Neighborhood, Hafter forces made great progress in Ayn Zara and Vadi er-Rebi neighborhoods. Later, some of the dormant cells in the region also supported the Hafter forces and captured the neighborhood of Es-Sevani.
The attack on the former strategic Tripoli Airport was followed by the advance of Hafter forces. A few days after Hafter's attack, Tripoli was like a wounded prey, preparing to breathe its last breath.
2. GNA troops repelling attacks
In the second week of the attacks, the capital took a sigh of relief, when Misrata(The city where Turkish roots/Kulogulları are most powerful) began to reach support to Tripoli and GNA troops from the cities of Zaviye and Zintan to the west. At the same time, the forces of the Hafter from the east were stopped and GNA started to defend around the center of the capital.
In the second stage, GNA forces started to take back the regions that they lost at the beginning of the attack and regained control in the districts of Verşefane, especially Aziziye. Sevani Neighborhood near the old airport was also rescued from Hafter forces.
During this period, GNA troops also cut a thousand kilometers of air and land supply lines of Hafter forces. Cufra Air Base, which Hafter forces used as ammunition depot, was targeted. Hafter forces was start to feeling Lack of ammunition and fuel while conflicts fronts difficulties getting even more.
This explains why the Hafter forces surrendered on many fronts, a decline in motivation, and some of them fleeing from conflict zones to their eastern families.
The forces of Hafter, who were on the verge of ending the Tripoli war in almost a few days, have been unable to achieve any tangible progress, except for the air strikes that have killed civilians and immigrants for months.
Now Hafter and his commanders future are at stake for war crimes judgement by the International Criminal Court (ICC) because of these attacks, targeting civilians and immigrants . This erroneous policy has pushed France, one of the international supporters, to an undecided position.
Hafter declined on all fronts on the western axis (Sevani, Zehra, Aziziye, Kerimiyye, Saidiye, Amiriyye, Hira). The breakthrough development in this context was that the Hafter forces lost Giryan in a surprise attack on June 26, located south of the capital, the center of operation.
3. The transition of Hafter forces from attack to defense
After stopping the attacks of Hafter troops, GNA forces started to re-seize the regions they lost and in the third stage they started to attack the Hafter regions. Hafter forces also moved from defense to defense.
In the early days of August, GNA troops advanced from eastern Tripoli to the outskirts of Terhune in the southeast of the capital, and for the first time forced the 9th Brigade to retreat outside the city's administrative borders.
GNA troops intensified their attacks on the positions of the 9th Brigade in Terhune and its vicinity.
However, the 9th Brigade also attacked the populated areas of the capital from the air. Dozens of civilians lost their lives in these attacks. The prisoners of GNA troops were subjected to lethal torture. Currently, information about the majority of these prisoners is not available.
- Implementation of the ancient military tactic in Terhune
Terhune is a key point, although the main goal of GNA is to move Hafter forces away from the southern suburbs of the capital. After the loss of Giryan, the control of the Hafter forces in Terhune, which became the center of operations of the Hafter forces, would mean the destruction of the front line of the Hafter forces.
When Terhune is seized, Hafter forces will now be besieged on all fronts and ammunition paths will be blocked. Thus, the 9th Brigade will have to withdraw its troops from the capital, Tripoli, to protect its city.
This reminds us of the military tactic that how the Romans prevailed in the Battle of Carthage in 218-201 BCE by preventing the transportation of supplies against Hannibal, the Carthaginian commander.
The attack on Terhune will also save GNA's capital. Thus the battlefield will change direction from the southern suburbs of Tripoli to the neighborhoods and streets of Terhune.
- The latest situation on the Terhune front
Terhune is almost besieged. GNA troops have been pressuring to cut off the supply line between Terhune and Kasr bin Gashir and the old airport by launching attacks from El-Kura Boli in the north and Es-Sebia and Suk al-Hamis in the west.
GNA troops can also attack Terhune from Misellata on the eastern front and cut off the supply line between Terhune and Beni Walid in the south.
Residents of Terhune have been suffering from water shortages for 4 months, as well as lack of fuel since the attacks on the capital. In addition, the city is experiencing financial problems. The continuation of the conflicts increases the siege status of the city, which has no airport or maritime transport.
The fall of the Terhune front is also key for GNA to regain control over Beni Walid air base. An attack on the strategically important Cufra Airbase from Beni Walid in the south of Tripoli can be carried out or the Hafter control in the cities and municipalities in the Fizan region in the southwest of the country can be terminated.
- Hafter situation in the southern regions
Hafter forces failed to maintain control despite the heavy air strikes in the city of Merzuk in Fizan, southwest of the country. This failure in the city of Merzuk can be regarded as an indication of the "fragility" of Hafter's control in the Fezzan region.
It may not be too difficult for GNA troops to take back this large and sparsely populated area if they deal with southern tribes. Especially given that Hafter had drawn a significant part of his troops to the north to concentrate on Tripoli.
- Situation of Hafter's allied brigades
When you look at the clashes that have left behind 5 months in Tripoli and its vicinity, it is seen that Hafter is not on the way to "victory is close", which he said before.
It is observed that Hafter's troops from the eastern part of the country have lost their enthusiasm for war and want to return home.
Zintan Brigades are divided in two as a results of attacks against Tripoli. This can lead to an outrage within them, and no one in the city can survive the civil war that will erupt in Terhune.
The commanders of the Verfefane Brigade, an ally of Hafter, were betrayed by an air raid on their cities of the 9th Brigade of Terhune. This shows a tough field of internal struggle between Hafter's allies, which are left.
The international pressure against Haftere, which does not seem very promising, is also on the rise. While France is backing down its support, Egypt does not want to take part in this blood-losing war. Egypt's deep economic problems may be another reason why this motivation is broken.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) situation is a matter of curiosity. It is not known to what extent Abu Dhabi will use the "moral legacy" of the relations established by the late Sheikh Zayid, the founder of the UAE, at the time of the international embargo on Libya.
After all,probably Hafter seems to have no other way than to negotiate to save himself, his troops and his country from the worst-case scenario.
graphics and content source : https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/trablusun-guneyinde-hezimete-ugrayan-hafter-cikis-ariyor/1582981
