Featured Exports fall but trade balance improves

[The Accountant]

In the last two years of PMLN negative CAB was ballooned because we have to import heavy machinery of power , cement , steel, sugar, textile and other raw materiel for CPEC. Now as the major expansions has done so imports are down but PTI government has not presented any export policy in the last two years so we could not capitalized on the work done by the previous government, else the government imposed 17% sales tax on ZR export sector. Knowing fully well how difficult it is to get back sales tax refunds from the government the industry despaired. The government promised that it will refund tax in 72 hours, but it has not kept its promise. Government announced that it will refund 200b under COVID package but again it it didn't. Now ST refund also ballooned to over 700b. Import duty on raw material also contributed in reduction of exports.

This is a big flat lie being told to nation by PMLN. The total import of machinery in fy2018 was 6 billion dollar v/s import of 53 billion and current account deficit of 19 billion. Even this 6 billion import of machinery includes regular imports of machinery by private businesses.

With respect to sales tax on export sector. The overall decision was correct as tax was to make them on par with other sectors on local sales. However, the point raised with respect to tax refunds is correct. Refunds should be processed on timely basis.

Furthermore, with respect to export policy, benefits to textile sectors were given, work was done on reducing diplomatic hurdles and resulted in increase in ease of doing business. Furthermore commercial attache were mobilized to create connectivity with outside suppliers. Agri research was started with China to boast productivity of export related crops. Medical export of masks and ventilators has started. Silicon valley is being established for software export. Rekodik issue was sorted out and progress is being made to use those minerals. Balochistan mineral minning company was formed to extract and export minerals.

A significant number of staff was fired last month from TDAP on non-performance and now plan is to hire new staff

ALot of being done on structural level as well.

 

[muhammadhafeezmalik]

LSM is down all over the world, Infact Pakistan is better off in comparison to world. Secondly LSM revival will take atleast 4 to 5 years more to show effect however, increase in cement sector real production, revival of textile (before corona) and massive investments in auto sector shows an increasing trend.

In first year of PTI, GDP growth was low mainly to stablize current account and budget deficit out of which current account is in control now. In second year negative GDP is due to Corona (still better than most of the world). TO understand the GDP growth you need to understand why GDP was higher previously. GDP was high on the back of massive current account and budget deficits. you take loans and provide subsidize goods to the masses they will be very happy. But PMLN never told them the goods they are getting are backed by massive loans and massive deficitss. So in laymen terms PTI stop providing subsidized goods, make imports expensive and as a result masses are angry as they are in trouble. However, only person with knowledge of finance knows that PMLN policy was destructive and was leading towards disaster. Did you ever realize why all the assets and sons of PMLN are living abroad. They already knew that the way they are running the country it cannot survive long so they keep their own wealth outside of Pakistan. They live in Pakistan just to earn money which they receive in the form of kick backs outside Pakistan in their real country of residence i.e. UK.

Inflation is all time high as due to artificially low exchange rates, we were subsidizng imports and they were cheaper. Now the imports are getting to their actual prices local products are getting cheaper than imports but still higher than previously subsidized imports. Furthermore, imported goods are now expensive so those without any substitute like petrol will result in increase in prices. This is a one time scenario due to stabilization policy and correction measures taken for current account deficit and budget deficit and soon prices will start normalizing.

Dollars keep on inching because we have a massive loan and lesser exports. Our exports are just 25 billion dollars v/s eternal loan of around 100 billion. Furthermore, money laundering is also big issue due to which most of the dollars coming to country get transferred outside by illegal channels. You should ask this question from political parties who are opposing approval of FATF money laundering related laws and using it as a bargaining chip for amendment in NAB laws. Why current government efforts to stop money laundering are being opposed by opposition whereas it is a dire need of the day?

LSM was down in doule digit before COVID or March 2020.

 

[Patriot forever]

Major work has done, which includes power infrastructure and road network, now SEZs are to be established and so far the progress is very slow.

‘Govt to amend SEZ Act to promote industrialisation, attract FDI’

Razak Dawood says amendments will help ensure provision of quality services to investors

profit.pakistantoday.com.pk

Laws for special economic zones under CPEC being revisited

Chairman Board of Investment Zubair Gilani says amendment in laws will encourage exports.

www.dawn.com

Machinery for which power plant was imported in the last year??

Tax refund claims surged every month at almost 100b per month:

Tax refund claims balloon to Rs710b | The Express Tribune

NA panel sees lack of substance in revenue authority’s reforms agenda

tribune.com.pk

Tax refunds amount to Rs532b: FBR | The Express Tribune

Tells NA committee about Rs220b worth of administrative measures taken in budget

tribune.com.pk

Tax refund claims surge to Rs348b | The Express Tribune

External audit required to determine exact quantum due to claims and counter claims

tribune.com.pk

Imports structure to Pakistan in 2019 represented by the following main commodity groups:

• 28% (14.3 billion US$): 27 - Mineral fuels, mineral oils and products of their distillation; bituminous substances; mineral waxes
• 9.42% (4.71 billion US$): 84 - Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery and mechanical appliances; parts thereof
• 8.49% (4.25 billion US$): 85 - Electrical machinery and equipment and parts thereof; sound recorders and reproducers, television image and sound recorders and reproducers, and parts and accessories of such articles
• 6.18% (3.09 billion US$): 72 - Iron and steel
• 4.71% (2.36 billion US$): 29 - Organic chemicals
• 4.42% (2.21 billion US$): 39 - Plastics and articles thereof
• 3.86% (1.93 billion US$): 15 - Animal or vegetable fats and oils and their cleavage products prepared edible fats; animal or vegetable waxes
• 2.93% (1.46 billion US$): 87 - Vehicles other than railway or tramway rolling stock, and parts and accessories thereof
• 2.43% (1.22 billion US$): 12 - Oil seeds and oleaginous fruits; miscellaneous grains, seeds and fruits; industrial or medicinal plants; straw and fodder
• 1.66% (831 million US$): 52 - Cotton

This was for 2019. As far as ongoing power projects just giving the IPP data alone would tell you how much work is being done which requires imports as we do not manufacture the required equipment/machinery.

Your assumption of 100 billion every month is entirely wrong. But roughly 100 billion in a year. The figure is a cumulative one from 2014-to date. From the articles you posted.

'From June 2014 to June 2019, Rs413.5 billion of income tax refund claims had been outstanding, said FBR Inland Revenue Operations member Dr Mohammad Ashfaq. He said the outstanding sales tax refund claims amounted to Rs112 billion. Dr Tariq Huda, FBR member customs, stated that customs rebate claims amounted to Rs6 billion'

'Sarwar said that the exporters had filed Rs105.2 billion refund claims and out of that Rs72.2 billion were paid to them. This has left Rs33 billion balance with the FBR, which is also part of last year’s Rs3.99 trillion total tax collection'

 

[The Accountant]

LSM was down in doule digit before COVID or March 2020.

Its a plane lie. Here is month-wise LSM growth rate as per Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. Only Aug 2019 and Nov 2019 shows a decline whereas till Feb it was overall highly positive.

We went on lockdown in Sindh from 19 March and from 23 March in rest of Pakistan hence a decline of 22% in March and going forward.

 

[Pakistan Space Agency]

... The reality is that there's less demand for PKRs because, truthfully, we're not exporting anything of value and/or in-demand to the world market. ...

That's the issue my brother. Too much focus on exports, exports and exports when exportable goods are not available in the country to begin with.

... To encourage more demand for our goods, we've allowed the PKR to drop. ...

The exportable goods will not materialise no matter how much the Rupee drops. Whatever the exportable capacity there is, is being maxed out. Maybe with efficiency it can be improved a little but the quantity is not sizeable enough to turn it into a surge. Our own consumption is growing so much due to the large population growth constantly that we are chipping away at those exportable goods for ourselves.

... Finally, to artificially maintain a higher PKR, we'd need loans. This is exactly what the PML had done to keep a higher PKR. But that policy basically resulted in an import-rich culture because -- and wrongfully so -- Pakistanis thought foreign goods were affordable to them. Now, the poor/middle class must pay for that mistake by servicing the debt the PML spent to prop up the PKR. ...

I hate to be the devil's advocate here but the PML's economic policy is the only workable economic policy for the short-term and the medium term.

It is a very simple economic policy.

Pakistan has a population of 220 million people. This population is also the consumer and it is growing year-on-year.

As long as the people have the money, the appetite, the economy will have no choice but to grow. So, the focus is to ensure people always have enough money or more money.

During the previous Government's tenure, Imports were much higher to the tune of around $60 billion but the population was paying for those imported goods, not the Government except for where there is subsidy involved but most things are not subsidised. All that means is that the Government simply does not end up with a $60 billion import bill. It does not pay it out of its own pocket. The people pay for it and they happily paid for it.

Although imports were $60 billion and exports were around $20 billion, you have to remember to include $20 billion in remittances, $16 billion in total reserves and also the unusually large shadow economy of Pakistan to offset that trade balance.

The previous Government borrowed an average of around $10 billion annually but it was manageable. The Government paid it's debts like previous Governments did and it focused on energy, infrastructure and consumer spending all of which lead to a steady GDP Growth Rate of 5.2% while the Nominal GDP expanded to around $312 billion.

Now, the current Government is borrowing an average of $13 billion annually ($3 billion more) but has a less than half of GDP Growth Rate of only 2.4% while Nominal GDP shrank to around $284 billion.

At the same time, it has killed off the consumer spending power through increases in taxation, reduction in subsidy, curtailed imports leading price hikes and inflation like the country has never seen.

So the question should be, why is it particularly unmanageable for the current Government despite securing much higher financial backing than the previous Government which managed it with lower amounts?

Why do we need to focus on a consumer based economy than an export dependent economy?

The idea is that as the country is not capable of becoming an exporting nation in the foreseeable future, so turn it into a consumer based economy instead. Pakistan does not have enough goods or the capacity today but it certainly has the quantity of consumers.

During the 2013-2018 circa, China took responsibility for Pakistani infrastructure and energy needs under the CPEC umbrella while Pakistani Government concentrated on consumer needs primarily.

After the 2018 elections, infrastructure and energy development seemed to initially stop (something that Pakistan did not have to worry about for at least three ptevious years) but later picked up while the consumer was simply just thrown under the bus.

China did not become an exporting giant overnight or over a 10-year period, they oriented their industry to fulfil the needs of a billion Chinese citizens. Overtime, that built the necessary infrastructure required for large scale consumption and transportation of goods, gave them the experience and the ability, capability to turn their country into global factory. There are no short cuts to this.

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

That's the issue my brother. Too much focus on exports, exports and exports when exportable goods are not available in the country to begin with.



The exportable goods will not materialise no matter how much the Rupee drops. Whatever the exportable capacity there is, is being maxed out. Maybe with efficiency it can be improved a little but the quantity is not sizeable enough to turn it into a surge. Our own consumption is growing so much due to the large population growth constantly that we are chipping away at those exportable goods for ourselves.



I hate to be the devil's advocate here but the PML's economic policy is the only workable economic policy for the short-term and the medium term.

It is a very simple economic policy.

Pakistan has a population of 220 million people. This population is also the consumer and it is growing year-on-year.

As long as the people have the money, the appetite, the economy will have no choice but to grow. So, the focus is to ensure people always have enough money or more money.

During the previous Government's tenure, Imports were much higher to the tune of around $60 billion but the population was paying for those imported goods, not the Government except for where there is subsidy involved but most things are not subsidised. All that means is that the Government simply does not end up with a $60 billion import bill. It does not pay it out of its own pocket. The people pay for it and they happily paid for it.

Although imports were $60 billion and exports were around $20 billion, you have to remember to include $20 billion in remittances, $16 billion in total reserves and also the unusually large shadow economy of Pakistan to offset that trade balance.

The previous Government borrowed an average of around $10 billion annually but it was manageable. The Government paid it's debts like previous Governments did and it focused on energy, infrastructure and consumer spending all of which lead to a steady GDP Growth Rate of 5.2% while the Nominal GDP expanded to around $312 billion.

Now, the current Government is borrowing an average of $13 billion annually ($3 billion more) but has a less than half of GDP Growth Rate of only 2.4% while Nominal GDP shrank to around $284 billion.

At the same time, it has killed off the consumer spending power through increases in taxation, reduction in subsidy, curtailed imports leading price hikes and inflation like the country has never seen.

So the question should be, why is it particularly unmanageable for the current Government despite securing much higher financial backing than the previous Government which managed it with lower amounts?

Why do we need to focus on a consumer based economy than an export dependent economy?

The idea is that as the country is not capable of becoming an exporting nation in the foreseeable future, so turn it into a consumer based economy instead. Pakistan does not have enough goods or the capacity today but it certainly has the quantity of consumers.

During the 2013-2018 circa, China took responsibility for Pakistani infrastructure and energy needs under the CPEC umbrella while Pakistani Government concentrated on consumer needs primarily.

After the 2018 elections, infrastructure and energy development seemed to initially stop (something that Pakistan did not have to worry about for at least three ptevious years) but later picked up while the consumer was simply just thrown under the bus.

China did not become an exporting giant overnight or over a 10-year period, they oriented their industry to fulfil the needs of a billion Chinese citizens. Overtime, that built the necessary infrastructure required for large scale consumption and transportation of goods, gave them the experience and the ability, capability to turn their country into global factory. There are no short cuts to this.

Exports are the means by which we are able to gain hard or foreign currency, which in turn allows us to import key items such as energy, machinery, and luxury goods.

It's a basic economic rule: you save by earning more than what you spend. Or in business: your profit is the revenue minus costs or expenses. Even for 7th century Muslims it was the same concept: society becomes wealthy when it's able to gain more than what you lose.

It's just that in the modern world this core principle takes root in our trade gap and our current account balances.

What you're saying about an economy sustained by only its domestic consumption is correct. However, systems of this nature only work when all of your needs are domestically available.

This was NOT the case for Pakistan. We import energy. We import machinery. We import consumer items. We import a lot of things, which means we have perpetual currency outflows that must be balanced by inflows.

If those inflows aren't enough to balance the outflows, you then end up with the government taking out loans to plug the deficit each and every time. In this case, the last gov't took out loans to sustain the currency rates people were comfortable with so that they could still import.

In turn, we ended up with debt, and because we did not develop a strong enough export base, we are unable to repay that debt with trade-based currency inflows. As a result, the next gov't had to take out more loans.

The issue isn't whether people want to import or buy locally, the issue is what did the gov't do to generate hard-currency inflows to sustain consumer tastes.

Simply, it didn't do a single thing except it encouraged imports by taking loans out to artificially prop up the currency.

If you want a strong currency, then you need to generate real market demands for that currency by offering a good that people in other nations want to buy. Because Pakistanis want to buy goods sold in USD, they are going to buy up USD and help boost the value of the USD.

But the PML actually took a short-cut by propping up the currency with loans, thus leaving the nation with debts it must now repay through all of the issues you have mentioned.

You brought up the Chinese example, but I hope you understand that China -- like Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, etc -- are all textbook export-oriented industrialization models.

The right model is to leverage the massive consumer base to create economies-of-scale for local industry, not let others milk it at our expense (via loans and debt).

For example, if you have 50 million people able to buy cars (i.e., just 1/4 of the Pakistani population), then you should force auto-makers to produce the high-value parts (engine, transmission, etc) in Pakistan. There's enough of a market to sustain that kind of investment.

They will also find that because of Pakistan's lower costs and currency value, they can export Pakistani-made auto parts (and even cars) at more competitive rates. This will spur growth in jobs and pull hard currency gains for the people to spend on imported luxuries.

 

[Pakistan Space Agency]

Exports are the means by which we are able to gain hard or foreign currency, which in turn allows us to import key items such as energy, machinery, and luxury goods.

It's a basic economic rule: you save by earning more than what you spend. Or in business: your profit is the revenue minus costs or expenses. Even for 7th century Muslims it was the same concept: society becomes wealthy when it's able to gain more than what you lose.

It's just that in the modern world this core principle takes root in our trade gap and our current account balances.

What you're saying about an economy sustained by only its domestic consumption is correct. However, systems of this nature only work when all of your needs are domestically available.

This was NOT the case for Pakistan. We import energy. We import machinery. We import consumer items. We import a lot of things, which means we have perpetual currency outflows that must be balanced by inflows.

If those inflows aren't enough to balance the outflows, you then end up with the government taking out loans to plug the deficit each and every time. In this case, the last gov't took out loans to sustain the currency rates people were comfortable with so that they could still import.

In turn, we ended up with debt, and because we did not develop a strong enough export base, we are unable to repay that debt with trade-based currency inflows. As a result, the next gov't had to take out more loans.

The issue isn't whether people want to import or buy locally, the issue is what did the gov't do to generate hard-currency inflows to sustain consumer tastes.

Simply, it didn't do a single thing except it encouraged imports by taking loans out to artificially prop up the currency.

If you want a strong currency, then you need to generate real market demands for that currency by offering a good that people in other nations want to buy. Because Pakistanis want to buy goods sold in USD, they are going to buy up USD and help boost the value of the USD.

But the PML actually took a short-cut by propping up the currency with loans, thus leaving the nation with debts it must now repay through all of the issues you have mentioned.

You brought up the Chinese example, but I hope you understand that China -- like Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, etc -- are all textbook export-oriented industrialization models.

The right model is to leverage the massive consumer base to create economies-of-scale for local industry, not let others milk it at our expense (via loans and debt).

For example, if you have 50 million people able to buy cars (i.e., just 1/4 of the Pakistani population), then you should force auto-makers to produce the high-value parts (engine, transmission, etc) in Pakistan. There's enough of a market to sustain that kind of investment.

They will also find that because of Pakistan's lower costs and currency value, they can export Pakistani-made auto parts (and even cars) at more competitive rates. This will spur growth in jobs and pull hard currency gains for the people to spend on imported luxuries.

I understand what your saying brother that we need hard foreign currency but as I said this currency already is available in the country to offset the imports in the form of around $20 billion in exports, around $20 billion in remittances and around $16 billion in total reserves. That's usually around $50 - $60 billion a year in any given year.

We worry way too much about money flowing out and only accepting what we earn from exports as true and legitimate hard foreign currency.

We can't compare Pakistan to South Korea, Japan and Taiwan as they've not suffered 8 rounds of US sanctions or been involved in active perpetual wars but instead they've access to international finance without any restrictions and favourable free market access to industrialised nations from the get-go for strategic reasons.

Pakistan is not so lucky or fortunate so it has to concentrate on baby steps to grow it's internal economy to feed the local consumer.

This ever growing consumer is what gave Pakistan a 5.2% GDP Growth Rate in 2018 after suffering from the 2008 global financial crises. It can grow much further and it can sustain the economy until the energy and road infrastructure is sufficiently available with the completion of CPEC around 2030.

Look at China's export figures for five years from 1979:

We realy need to get out of this direct/indirect impression that $60 billion of imports are/were funded by $60 billion of loans each year.

 

[muhammadhafeezmalik]

Its a plane lie. Here is month-wise LSM growth rate as per Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. Only Aug 2019 and Nov 2019 shows a decline whereas till Feb it was overall highly positive.

We went on lockdown in Sindh from 19 March and from 23 March in rest of Pakistan hence a decline of 22% in March and going forward.

View attachment 667587

December saw 15% increase which eroded in next two months means decline of 15%, when you compare it with the last year of PMLN it has gone down 25%!!

 

[The Accountant]

December saw 15% increase which eroded in next two months means decline of 15%, when you compare it with the last year of PMLN it has gone down 25%!!

Previously u said that LSM declined in pre corona now u r focusing on trends of 2 months.
Furthermore, by which standards 7.09 % growth of jan is erosion ? By feb virus was already spread in europe. Italy was in lock down and travelling/trade got reduced in other countries as well.

Furthermore all these comparisions are in dollar terms but thanks to devaluation export sales in pkr of exporters was much higher and they got much better profits than priir periods

 

[muhammadhafeezmalik]

Imports structure to Pakistan in 2019 represented by the following main commodity groups:

• 28% (14.3 billion US$): 27 - Mineral fuels, mineral oils and products of their distillation; bituminous substances; mineral waxes
• 9.42% (4.71 billion US$): 84 - Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery and mechanical appliances; parts thereof
• 8.49% (4.25 billion US$): 85 - Electrical machinery and equipment and parts thereof; sound recorders and reproducers, television image and sound recorders and reproducers, and parts and accessories of such articles
• 6.18% (3.09 billion US$): 72 - Iron and steel
• 4.71% (2.36 billion US$): 29 - Organic chemicals
• 4.42% (2.21 billion US$): 39 - Plastics and articles thereof
• 3.86% (1.93 billion US$): 15 - Animal or vegetable fats and oils and their cleavage products prepared edible fats; animal or vegetable waxes
• 2.93% (1.46 billion US$): 87 - Vehicles other than railway or tramway rolling stock, and parts and accessories thereof
• 2.43% (1.22 billion US$): 12 - Oil seeds and oleaginous fruits; miscellaneous grains, seeds and fruits; industrial or medicinal plants; straw and fodder
• 1.66% (831 million US$): 52 - Cotton

This was for 2019. As far as ongoing power projects just giving the IPP data alone would tell you how much work is being done which requires imports as we do not manufacture the required equipment/machinery.

View attachment 667572View attachment 667573

Your assumption of 100 billion every month is entirely wrong. But roughly 100 billion in a year. The figure is a cumulative one from 2014-to date. From the articles you posted.

'From June 2014 to June 2019, Rs413.5 billion of income tax refund claims had been outstanding, said FBR Inland Revenue Operations member Dr Mohammad Ashfaq. He said the outstanding sales tax refund claims amounted to Rs112 billion. Dr Tariq Huda, FBR member customs, stated that customs rebate claims amounted to Rs6 billion'

'Sarwar said that the exporters had filed Rs105.2 billion refund claims and out of that Rs72.2 billion were paid to them. This has left Rs33 billion balance with the FBR, which is also part of last year’s Rs3.99 trillion total tax collection'

Imports were in 44-45b bracket as they are now a days, 6-8 billion were used for import of machinery and other items, which were one time expenditure. The bottom line is Pakistan has removed three major hurdles in the five years PMLN rule which hampering exports, i.e. Power shortage, lack of infrastructure and terrorism menace. There was no reason in drop of exports in the next two years.

You have shared a long wish list of power plants only two thermal power plants and one hydro power plant are under construction rest has not even gained the financial close.

 

[muhammadhafeezmalik]

Previously u said that LSM declined in pre corona now u r focusing on trends of 2 months.
Furthermore, by which standards 7.09 % growth of jan is erosion ? By feb virus was already spread in europe. Italy was in lock down and travelling/trade got reduced in other countries as well.

Furthermore all these comparisions are in dollar terms but thanks to devaluation export sales in pkr of exporters was much higher and they got much better profits than priir periods

Italy was locked down in second week of March 20, so as the rest of Europe & USA, there was no panic for COVID in February. Oil prices were steady so as the other commodities.

The Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) growth during July-March FY 2019 declined to 2.93 percent
as compared to 6.33 percent in the same period last year. On Year on Year (YoY), LSM growth
witnessed sharp decline of 10.63 percent in March 2019 compared to increase of 4.70 percent in
March 2018. (Source: Pakistan Economic Survey 2018-19 - Finance Division)

2020 was not different either it has performed even worse than 2019.

 

[The Accountant]

Italy was locked down in second week of March 20, so as the rest of Europe & USA, there was no panic for COVID in February. Oil prices were steady so as the other commodities.

The Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) growth during July-March FY 2019 declined to 2.93 percent
as compared to 6.33 percent in the same period last year. On Year on Year (YoY), LSM growth
witnessed sharp decline of 10.63 percent in March 2019 compared to increase of 4.70 percent in
March 2018. (Source: Pakistan Economic Survey 2018-19 - Finance Division)

2020 was not different either it has performed even worse than 2019.

Can you please stop twisting the facts ?

1. Italy went to complete country lock down and 10th March but country started lock down in multiple cities on Feb 21.
2. China Wuhan was already lock down.
3. Iran was in panic and badly hit.
4. multiple other cities were in partial lock down and international travel was restricted.

here is the WTI crude prices falling in Feb representing by the black line.

Earlier you were discussing 2019-20 pre-corona. When I proved your point to be fabrciation you shift the goal post and moved to 2018-19.

Yes 2018 and 2019 was a year of slow down. Government itself accepted and intentionally planned for slow down in order to reverse the massive current account deficit of 19 billion dollars your beloved PMLN left.

This is what happens when you undervalue your currency and put your economy on asteroids by unmanageable trade deficit and budget deficits.

 

[The Accountant]

Imports were in 44-45b bracket as they are now a days, 6-8 billion were used for import of machinery and other items, which were one time expenditure. The bottom line is Pakistan has removed three major hurdles in the five years PMLN rule which hampering exports, i.e. Power shortage, lack of infrastructure and terrorism menace. There was no reason in drop of exports in the next two years.

View attachment 667951

You have shared a long wish list of power plants only two thermal power plants and one hydro power plant are under construction rest has not even gained the financial close.

Which power are you talking about ? The expensive thermal power plants due to which our electricity prices are highest in the region and also putting a strain on our import bill?

Which export infrastructure PMLN built in 5 years? Our ease of doing business was still pathetic, our bureaucracy still sucks, there is no facilitation to the exporter, our transportation through railway became even worst.

Our relationship with other countries specially middle east become worst which put a big dent on workers remittances and trade relationship.

Infact you yourself claiming that exports declined from 25 billion to just 23 billion during PMLN tenure. So they are the worst performer.

 

[muhammadhafeezmalik]

Which power are you talking about ? The expensive thermal power plants due to which our electricity prices are highest in the region and also putting a strain on our import bill?

Which export infrastructure PMLN built in 5 years? Our ease of doing business was still pathetic, our bureaucracy still sucks, there is no facilitation to the exporter, our transportation through railway became even worst.

Our relationship with other countries specially middle east become worst which put a big dent on workers remittances and trade relationship.

Infact you yourself claiming that exports declined from 25 billion to just 23 billion during PMLN tenure. So they are the worst performer.

There was a load-shedding of GAS & Electricity for 12+ hours in the country which reduced to almost Zero, road connectivity was made better. Investors' confidence was high which was reflect in large investments.

 

[Patriot forever]

LSM was down in doule digit before COVID or March 2020.

Imports were in 44-45b bracket as they are now a days, 6-8 billion were used for import of machinery and other items, which were one time expenditure. The bottom line is Pakistan has removed three major hurdles in the five years PMLN rule which hampering exports, i.e. Power shortage, lack of infrastructure and terrorism menace. There was no reason in drop of exports in the next two years.

View attachment 667951

You have shared a long wish list of power plants only two thermal power plants and one hydro power plant are under construction rest has not even gained the financial close.

Below is the data of top 10 imports from China by value in 2018. Out of 60.2 billion in overall imports for that year. This will answer both of your questions, I have seen so many people use this argument just because they got fooled by propaganda.

'China's exports to Pakistan amounted to
$14.6 billion or 24.3% of its overall imports.

1. Electronic equipment: $3.1 billion
2. Machinery: $3.1 billion
3. Iron and steel: $1.1 billion
4. Organic chemicals: $866.9 million
5. Fertilizers: $689.7 million
6. Man-made filaments: $538.9 million
7. Iron or steel products: $531.7 million
8. Plastics: $481.6 million
9. Vehicles: $418 million
10. Man-made staple fibers: $266.6 million'

The data I shared was just for IPP's. You can just search for government projects. Just for heads up work on 3 major dams is underway in this government term. Diamer, Mohmand, Dasu. I will share more when I find time.