Farnborough Debut Heralds JF-17 Export Drive
By USMAN ANSARI
Published: 19 July 2010
ISLAMABAD - The presence of a pair of JF-17 Thunder aircraft at the Farnborough Air Show heralds the start of an export drive for the Pakistani fighter, and while officials are upbeat, some analysts are unsure if the aircraft will easily find a market.
Despite earlier press reports that the JF-17s would perform at the show, which begins July 19 in England, the air adviser at the Pakistani High Commission in London, Col. Ali Awan, told Defense News that this was not so. Both aircraft would participate only in the static display because of the late decision to participate at Farnborough and the cost of the license and insurance fees.
However, Awan said the aim of the appearance at Farnborough was "to announce that the aircraft was here" and allow potential customers to arrange additional access to the aircraft.
Domestic orders for the JF-17 are potentially as high as 250, but exports could be far higher. Awan said there was already "a lot of interest."
However, retired Air Commodore Kaiser Tufail, now an analyst, said the domestic production line at the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) in Kamra "is likely to be overloaded with production efforts for the [Pakistan Air Force] over the next three to four years," and "export orders could only be taken thereafter."
But this could change if Chinese interest in the aircraft grows, he said.
Awan confirmed the JF-17 is officially being promoted to Egypt, and that other African nations are also showing interest.
Usman Shabbir of the Pakistani Military Consortium said there may be an opportunity to secure export orders without disrupting domestic production.
"Countries like Egypt, who require the aircraft in large numbers and have a decent aviation industry, might settle for licensed production due to indigenization and cost purposes," he said.
Because of the export success of the Sino-Pakistan K-8 jet trainer, of which Egypt is a major operator, any operator "is a potential JF-17 buyer," he said. It is "unlikely countries like [Myanmar] and Zimbabwe could go for a Western option."
Any nation that is "cash-strapped or, those which have restraints applied by Western suppliers for one or the other reason," are potential customers, Tufail said.
The weapons and avionics package on offer also may be a deciding factor, he said. Such countries would be unable to acquire missiles like the U.S. AMRAAM or the European Mica, leaving the Russian AA-10 and the Chinese SD-10 as the only options.
"This is one aspect of how [beyond visual range] availability narrows the choice between the more affordable MiG-29 and JF-17 fighters," he said. "The winner may well be the platform which boasts a better avionics suite."
"PAC Kamra needs to look at Western sources to sweeten the offering," he added.
Officials are aware of this, and Awan said the JF-17 matched the general performance of an F-16A/B, but with a "good avionics package," it could increase interest further.
He said that he was, however, unable to comment on the status of the more advanced avionics package being negotiated with the French systems integrator ATE Group, as reported in the Asian and French press, though he remained positive.
South Asia analyst Brian Cloughley was more reserved.
"The JF-17 is apparently a good mid-high-tech machine," he said, but "selling combat aircraft is very difficult."
An additional problem has been lobbying efforts by Russian fighter companies to halt sales of the Klimov RD-93 engine that powers the JF-17.
"Russians are unlikely to allow their more lucrative export of the MiG-29 suffer just because their Klimov RD-93 engine is to power a rival product," Tufail said.
This was reinforced by Cloughley, who said the "problem is political and not technical."
"Russia is not going to cut off its nose by allowing its engine to be used by those who want to export in competition with Russian aircraft," he agreed. "There has to be another power plant."
Cloughley said he was unsure whether the alternative Chinese power plant, the Guizhou WS-13 Taishan, was "adequate."
"Potential buyers are going to want guarantees of supply, and you can't give a guarantee based on an engine that isn't fully tested," he said. The level of testing done on the engine is unclear, although it has apparently been used in taxi tests, officials said.
"So, although the JF-17 is attractive, [especially in regard to price], I really don't think there can be much of an export market if the Russians decide to give a thumbs-down," Cloughley said.
Tufail identified another potential impediment in the Tejas, a possible competitor built by India's Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. (HAL), though only "if its price and production deadlines remain under control," he said. "Much to the consternation of HAL, these have not been encouraging from their standpoint, so far."
Funding shortages due to Pakistan's weak economy and it being "badly overburdened by the war on terror" are "also likely to negatively impact the JF-17's export development prospects," Tufail said.
"This aspect may turn out to be the most decisive of all in determining if ever the JF-17 is to be the 'fighter for Afro-Asia,'" Tufail said.
Farnborough Debut Heralds JF-17 Export Drive - Defense News
