I agree with you to some extent.
But I also agree with his overall strategy, leave EU, but pivot to Asia, especially ME.
The thing is, Turkey gain a lot by joining NATO during Cold War, huge benefit. Turkey leverage Istanbul strategic location - Bosphorus, milked west a lot.
But when Cold War ended, EU lure Turkey for damn 30 years, it's now the end of the boring double face talk.
Turkey knew very well that there is no position for Turkey, not possible. The economy benefit is less and less, while Strait of Istanbul is much less important due to end of Cold War.
Turkey must find new way to live better, and play the geopolitics. How to do it?
The importance of ME in general is declining, oil price is dropping, new energy is developing fast, shale oil is eating the pie, etc. What does that mean? It means US and west is shifting focus to East, the fast East. Most economy growth comes from Fast East, China to be specific. In 2020, 78% global growth comes from China.
The decline of ME gave Turkey quite a lot of room to play, the US pivot to Asia strategy created power vacuum.
If, just if, I am Erdogan, I will take the risk and play the grand game in ME.
In my opinion, Erdogan is a populist, no doubt about it. But as a politician, he really doesn't have much choice. Erdogan either please his voters or west, he chose former.
The west will try to overthrow Erdogan anyway as long as Turkey want to be SOMEONE.
The Gulf states, Arab world is declining fast. Turkey, Iran, Pakistan are the strongest nation. Iran is busy on Yankees and Gulf States, while Pakistan is occupied by Hindus.
No pain no gain.
What we witnessed is, Erdogan tried to mend ties with China, leveraging China BRI, political influence to hedge west. I think that's good strategy.