Erdogan demands demilitarisation of East Aegean Islands, threatens operation in Syria

[Beast]

You seems to forget the exit of Black sea is not Turkey (Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits), because it goes into another inland sea called "Mediterranean" The Reason why Russia want to control the Black sea is because of the Black Sea, and they can traverse between Black Sea into Baltics, to do that, you will need to get thru Gibraltar gap, which is controlled by the UK at this point.

If Turkey join Russia, what it can do is to open up Black Sea for Russia to go into the Med, or stop NATO ship to traverse into Black Sea. But you cannot do either of that because of the montreux convention 1936, if you close it to one, you need to close it to all, if Turkey violate montreux convention, that will most likely end up a NATO blockade in the Black Sea which would stop both Russian and Turkish traffic. Unless you really think Russian and Turkish Naval Power can stop a full NATO Naval blockade..

NATO need Turkey to control black sea to prevent Russia navy from blockade other nearby state. It's not only about going into the ocean but about activities inside the sea too.

 

[jhungary]

NATO need Turkey to control black sea to prevent Russia navy from blockade other nearby state. It's not only about going into the ocean but about activities inside the sea too.

Dude, have you read my 2nd paragraph??

Russia own the black sea even before this war, whatever they do in there is with impunity, who else is going to stop them? The Romanian? The Georgian? The Ukrainian?? NATO cannot travese thru Bosphorus and Dardanelles because of the montreux convention when Turkey close it to all Military Traffic. It have nothing to do with NATO, if Turkey allow Russian ship to come out and not NATO ship to go in, then this will almost certainly result in a Combine NATO fleet blockading the entire Bosphorus and Dardanelles strait. Which mean both Russian and Turkey ship cannot pass thru the area.

Again, unless you are saying a combine Turkey and Russian fleet can break a full NATO Naval blockade, it would be stupid to do that. Otherwise if montreux convention was not violated, it wouldn't matter because Romania, Ukraine and Georgia does not have a Navy to challenge the Russian activities in Black Sea to begin with.

 

[Apollon]

Good time to invade. Becos Turkey is critical for EU/USA to impose on Russia. They will close one eye on this issue and whoever is stronger will win.


They need Turkey to hold the Russia on black sea. A big reason Turkey is one of the founding members of NATO. Imagine Turkey join Russia, that will be unthinkable.

Bullshit. Greece is an EU member. Attacking Greece is an attack on EU which means war with Europe. We know this barking since many years.

 

[dBSPL]

Naval blockade to Turkiye? Some idiots here living in a fantasy world.

Some so-called analysts, who claim that international maritime traffic and rights of way can be blocked 20-50 miles off the Turkish coast, do nothing but ridicule themselves.

 

[Foinikas]

Note: I edited the first post with the maps in english. Please check them out.

@RescueRanger @Beast @siegecrossbow @jamahir @PakFactor @Sainthood 101 @Brainsucker @Huffal @reflecthofgeismar @jhungary

Naval blockade to Turkiye? Some idiots here living in a fantasy world.

Why? You think you can't be blockaded? The Straits. That's the point. That's the whole point. They all want the Straits.

 

[KediKesenFare3]

God knows I'm no friend of the US foreign policy as long as the American position towards PKK and Syria doesn't fundamentally change.

People always think of the US-Turkish relations as very strained and sometimes even talk about it as if it's about to collapse. That's not the case. Everything can be overlooked from a Turkish perspective except the support for PKK.

That's the main hurdle. Apart from that, the US and Turkish interests are very much in line with respect to Central Asia, China, South Korea, Eastern Europe and Africa.

The NATO-Turkish relationship has a very unique history:

Türkiye and NATO - 1952

www.nato.int

Still, I'm ready to end this alliance if Washington doesn't cease its support for Communist terrorists. Does this mean that I would chose China over the US? Hell no. But I got to say that I like India's stance in the game of East vs West.

Naval blockade to Turkiye? Some idiots here living in a fantasy world.

Ofc, that's BS. Even the US would think twice before challenging Turkey on her own turf. I don't think we should take every statement and sentence being made seriously. Some things are just said to be said with no reason.

 

[Viet]

Good time to invade. Becos Turkey is critical for EU/USA to impose on Russia. They will close one eye on this issue and whoever is stronger will win.


They need Turkey to hold the Russia on black sea. A big reason Turkey is one of the founding members of NATO. Imagine Turkey join Russia, that will be unthinkable.

All depends on Erdogan’s mood. He can invade Greece today and China tomorrow. There are people that are bored and have nothing to do else.

 

[Foinikas]

Ofc, that's BS. Even the US would think twice before challenging Turkey on her own turf. I don't think we should take every statement and sentence being made seriously. Some things are just said to be said with no reason.

Hey,I'm not judging you for being patriotic,it's natural and don't take this wrong,but Turkey is not invincible. Saddam thought he was strong,Hitler thought the allies couldn't reach the Reich,but they all got smashed badly.

Erdogan probably thinks nobody will dare attack Turkey,but if the Americans or the Russians are pushed,they might go on a bombing campaign with their allies,just to prove something or to take control of the Straits,if they think they have to.

They might even combine it with a regime change.

Come on,you've read Metal Firtina,haven't you?

 

[dBSPL]

@KediKesenFare
The first criterion to be looked at in order to measure the level of an analysis is whether the actions written in the scenario proceed according to the action-reaction mechanics. While NATO ships usurp TR's international maritime rights off the coast of Çanakkale, will Turkiye not develop a countermeasure policy? These silly things are just a fantasy world.

Such an aggressive and attempt for usurpation of maritime rights would lead to AD countermeasures. And more importantly NATO's openly aggressive actions against Turkiye may permanently and solid place China and Russia in the Mediterranean.

The traditional policy of Greece is based on making its own ambitions and actions the problem of the EU or other factors. But this time, the issue may goes beyond Greece. If Greece thinks that these hegemonic structures will accept to great sacrifices and geopolitical changes just for Greek state policies, it shows that it has learned no lessons from history.

Let me tell you what happened. The USA is permanently settling in Greece with great privileges with 9 different military bases. One of these military bases is a few kilometers from Edirne, right on the border line. The Greek people are being manipulated by the anti Turkiye discourses against this military occupation. If you scan the Greek sources, you can also see that these military base figures are likely to double soon. Very soon, just as our interlocutor is Russia on Syria, the United States will be our addressee regarding Greece.

 

[vi-va]

If Turkey really invade, will it complicate Ukraine - Russian War? How will NATO react?

Well, this is only a WHAT IF Scenario. Let's pray that it won't happen. But if it really happen, what will happen next?

Both countries are NATO members. So all NATO members should protect both countries from attacking by treaty.

I think NATO will threaten Turkey, while Greece is not defenseless.

 

[jhungary]

Note: I edited the first post with the maps in english. Please check them out.

@RescueRanger @Beast @siegecrossbow @jamahir @PakFactor @Sainthood 101 @Brainsucker @Huffal @reflecthofgeismar @jhungary


Why? You think you can't be blockaded? The Straits. That's the point. That's the whole point. They all want the Straits.

Well, he can believe what he want to believe. I am just commenting on the fact, I mean, in that scenario, you are talking about a violation of a important Naval Treaty that even pre-dated NATO itself. If you think you could do that without any consequence, well, that's not in my position to judge..

And it's worth notice that NATO have a very strong Navy in case you have not notice. US Navy alone can probably challenge Russia + Chinese Navy in the open sea. And I am talking about the Entire NATO Naval asset deep inside NATO backyard.......

 

[jamahir]

Note: I edited the first post with the maps in english. Please check them out.

@RescueRanger @Beast @siegecrossbow @jamahir @PakFactor @Sainthood 101 @Brainsucker @Huffal @reflecthofgeismar @jhungary

Nice of you to do that. I have bookmarked the OP.

 

[Apollon]

@KediKesenFare
The first criterion to be looked at in order to measure the level of an analysis is whether the actions written in the scenario proceed according to the action-reaction mechanics. While NATO ships usurp TR's international maritime rights off the coast of Çanakkale, will Turkiye not develop a countermeasure policy? These silly things are just a fantasy world.

Such an aggressive and attempt for usurpation of maritime rights would lead to AD countermeasures. And more importantly NATO's openly aggressive actions against Turkiye may permanently and solid place China and Russia in the Mediterranean.

The traditional policy of Greece is based on making its own ambitions and actions the problem of the EU or other factors. But this time, the issue may goes beyond Greece. If Greece thinks that these hegemonic structures will accept to great sacrifices and geopolitical changes just for Greek state policies, it shows that it has learned no lessons from history.

Let me tell you what happened. The USA is permanently settling in Greece with great privileges with 9 different military bases. One of these military bases is a few kilometers from Edirne, right on the border line. The Greek people are being manipulated by the anti Turkiye discourses against this military occupation. If you scan the Greek sources, you can also see that these military base figures are likely to double soon. Very soon, just as our interlocutor is Russia on Syria, the United States will be our addressee regarding Greece.

Its not occupation, its alliance. You also have us bases in turkey.


Beside that its just hot air frim turkey. They will never attack

 

[Foinikas]

And it's worth notice that NATO have a very strong Navy in case you have not notice. US Navy alone can probably challenge Russia + Chinese Navy in the open sea. And I am talking about the Entire NATO Naval asset deep inside NATO backyard.......

There are certain Turkish members here who don't think the USN can take on the Turkish Navy in the Aegean or East Med.,,

The traditional policy of Greece is based on making its own ambitions and actions the problem of the EU or other factors. But this time, the issue may goes beyond Greece. If Greece thinks that these hegemonic structures will accept to great sacrifices and geopolitical changes just for Greek state policies, it shows that it has learned no lessons from history.

As you can see from the maps,since 1973,it is Turkey that started having ambitions and illegal claims,not Greece.
It is evident who the bully is. Greece is not the one revealing expansionist maps as State policy. That's basically imperialism and irridentism.

As for making "our own ambitions and actions" the problem of the EU,well we are part of the EU. And you are threatening us. You are flying your jet fighters and UAVs over our islands or next to our cities,for example Alexandroupoli. So,that's also a violation of the EU's borders effectively.

 

[jhungary]

There are certain Turkish members here who don't think the USN can take on the Turkish Navy in the Aegean or East Med.,,

First of all, it's the entire NATO, not just USN.......

Second of all, this all started when @Beast put out a hypothetical question what if Turkey join Russian camp and violate montreux convention by letting Russia transfer thru Black Sea during Wartime. I don't have anything against Turkey, but what do you want me to say? Do I believe if this happen, Turkey can get away with violating a major international treaty?? No, and honestly, you would have to be really naive to believe so. There are going to be consequence. I mean, if you believe there will be no consequence for doing that, well..........

As I said, and let me stress that again, I have nothing against Turkey or being Pro-Greece, what I said is in response to a member putting out a hypothetical question and I answer what I believe honestly. I mean if he think NATO cannot blockade Turkey if Turkey violate montreux convention, that's his opinion, I believe otherwise and as I said, I am just stating the fact.