Erdogan demands demilitarisation of East Aegean Islands, threatens operation in Syria

[jhungary]

If Turkey really invade, will it complicate Ukraine - Russian War? How will NATO react?

Well, this is only a WHAT IF Scenario. Let's pray that it won't happen. But if it really happen, what will happen next?

IF Turkey attack, NATO could kick Turkey out of the alliance, which would not be good because that is the same bargaining chip Turks are holding over Sweden and Finland Membership.

Article 5 kicks in(If Greece want to invoke it) everyone goes to war with Turkey.

As for Russia-Ukraine, not much, Turkey supplies Ukraine with TB-2 Drone, and that's the only contribution Turkey did, it worth notice that Turkey is not a party that sanction Russia. I would assume either Turkey continue to deliver those drone (I heard there were around 20 still overdue) or have to refund the Ukrainian their money. Most likely NATO would replace that with MQ-9 or equivalent

 

[Foinikas]

If Turkey really invade, will it complicate Ukraine - Russian War? How will NATO react?

Well, this is only a WHAT IF Scenario. Let's pray that it won't happen. But if it really happen, what will happen next?

I don't know. NATO is already frustrated with Turkey's behavior and demands.

Realistically,if Turkey attacked our Navy or invaded some islands,they could suffer heavy sanctions and have American and French fleets in the Aegean and East Mediterranean in heavy alert and patrol or even embargo. Depends if the Turks allied themselves with Russia or were found to provide more help to them. Then they would probably be blockaded by NATO or the Americans could kick them back out of northern Syria,protecting the Kurds. Maybe.

 

[reflecthofgeismar]

Also this islands thing is ridiculous. They have entire bases on the other side and say our tiny garissons are a threat to them. They demand that we leave the islands next to them without any defence,threatening with war if we don't do it. How can I trust that such a government will not invade and take all these islands,after they are demilitarized.

Can't trust them, never would as a Greek.
Remember when Germans gave them letterpress in short time of peace and then they attacked again.
So, from the standpoint of "Realpolitik" it could be good in the end if Turks attack the islands and Greeks fight and die there (surely Turks too) but stand their ground long enough that Europe and America too, will sanction Turkey as hard as Russia.
And annoy Turks so hard that they will still be in NATO officially but nobody cares if Russians would nuke them, only crocodile tears.
And for sure, Greece should be militarized with money usually spend on many countries Trump called *insert words*.

 

[Apollon]

We talk about united Europe,but 4 years now,nobody dared to sink a ship or shoot an aircraft down to show Erdoğan his limits. Now he says he wants to go in Syria again,the Americans who had been supposedly protecting the Kurds,have been asking him not to start an operation. Appeasing him won't work.
And it's not just him,there's also the MHP behind him.

Funny you say that but support this kind of politics in Ukraine. I told you before why its absolute necessary to destroy Putin. If Putin wins Ukraine other regimes will do same

 

[Foinikas]

While war is a terrible thing and should not happen, I really want to see how S400 performs against Rafales and Vipers

It's understandable from a military history enthusiast's point of view. It definetely is understandable.

 

[Brainsucker]

IF Turkey attack, NATO could kick Turkey out of the alliance, which would not be good because that is the same bargaining chip Turks are holding over Sweden and Finland Membership.

Article 5 kicks in(If Greece want to invoke it) everyone goes to war with Turkey.

As for Russia-Ukraine, not much, Turkey supplies Ukraine with TB-2 Drone, and that's the only contribution Turkey did, it worth notice that Turkey is not a party that sanction Russia. I would assume either Turkey continue to deliver those drone (I heard there were around 20 still overdue) or have to refund the Ukrainian their money. Most likely NATO would replace that with MQ-9 or equivalent

So basically they will only bark and not bite? Alright, for the balance view, I hope some Turks can give me their insight about this conflict.

 

[Akritas]

@Foinikas ,​

the maps that proving Turkish aggression are also available in English.

Statement by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs regarding Turkish revisionism in the period 1973-2022 – Depiction in 16 maps - Announcements - Statements - Speeches

​

 

[Beast]

If Turkey really invade, will it complicate Ukraine - Russian War? How will NATO react?

Well, this is only a WHAT IF Scenario. Let's pray that it won't happen. But if it really happen, what will happen next?

Good time to invade. Becos Turkey is critical for EU/USA to impose on Russia. They will close one eye on this issue and whoever is stronger will win.

IF Turkey attack, NATO could kick Turkey out of the alliance, which would not be good because that is the same bargaining chip Turks are holding over Sweden and Finland Membership.

Article 5 kicks in(If Greece want to invoke it) everyone goes to war with Turkey.

As for Russia-Ukraine, not much, Turkey supplies Ukraine with TB-2 Drone, and that's the only contribution Turkey did, it worth notice that Turkey is not a party that sanction Russia. I would assume either Turkey continue to deliver those drone (I heard there were around 20 still overdue) or have to refund the Ukrainian their money. Most likely NATO would replace that with MQ-9 or equivalent

They need Turkey to hold the Russia on black sea. A big reason Turkey is one of the founding members of NATO. Imagine Turkey join Russia, that will be unthinkable.

 

[Brainsucker]

Good time to invade. Becos Turkey is critical for EU/USA to impose on Russia. They will close one eye on this issue and whoever is stronger will win.


They need Turkey to hold the Russia on black sea. A big reason Turkey is one of the founding members of NATO. Imagine Turkey join Russia, that will be unthinkable.

Yeah, if Turkey joins Russia, all those 40 NATO Ships have no choice but to retreat into Mediteranian Sea. Give Russia more control in the black sea. US will surely push into Kurd problem. It will surely force Turks into corner. But I haven't see other Erdogan's card, if he really push into that matter.

What is the benefit of Turkey to join the Russia?

 

[Foinikas]

@Foinikas ,​

the maps that proving Turkish aggression are also available in English.

Statement by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs regarding Turkish revisionism in the period 1973-2022 – Depiction in 16 maps - Announcements - Statements - Speeches

​

Oh thanx man! I didn't know!

They need Turkey to hold the Russia on black sea. A big reason Turkey is one of the founding members of NATO. Imagine Turkey join Russia, that will be unthinkable.

Or they can do a regime change in Turkey.

 

[dBSPL]

I listened to Erdogan's statement.He doesn't threaten any state. On the contrary, the Erdogan era has been as moderate towards Greece as only few governments in history have shown.The situation here is just the self-masturbation of a few of our Greek friends.

It is not a party policy. It also has no direct relationship with Erdogan. Our request for Greece is to remain faithful to the international agreements made between the two countries. Signature is honor. If Greece violates the agreements it has signed, we cannot stand by. And I'm afraid there isn't much time left for Greece to realize that, because AKP government will lost next election. As someone who knows the dynamics of Turkish politics in depth, those who think that the next government structure will make concessions on Turkish interests are unfortunately wrong and hope for help from the wrong parties.

There is not a single day in the Greek mainstream and right-wing media where propaganda against Turkiye has not been made for a long time. There is an incredible obsession and the public is being manipulated. I'm afraid that if this climb continues, Mitsotakis' fate will be the same as his father. When his father could not prevent the military coup, he fled to Turkiye under the protection of Turkish foreign affairs.

 

[jhungary]

Good time to invade. Becos Turkey is critical for EU/USA to impose on Russia. They will close one eye on this issue and whoever is stronger will win.


They need Turkey to hold the Russia on black sea. A big reason Turkey is one of the founding members of NATO. Imagine Turkey join Russia, that will be unthinkable.

You seems to forget the exit of Black sea is not Turkey (Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits), because it goes into another inland sea called "Mediterranean" The Reason why Russia want to control the Black sea is because of the Black Sea, and they can traverse between Black Sea into Baltics, to do that, you will need to get thru Gibraltar gap, which is controlled by the UK at this point.

If Turkey join Russia, what it can do is to open up Black Sea for Russia to go into the Med, or stop NATO ship to traverse into Black Sea. But you cannot do either of that because of the montreux convention 1936, if you close it to one, you need to close it to all, if Turkey violate montreux convention, that will most likely end up a NATO blockade in the Black Sea which would stop both Russian and Turkish traffic. Unless you really think Russian and Turkish Naval Power can stop a full NATO Naval blockade..

 

[Brainsucker]

Oh thanx man! I didn't know!


Or they can do a regime change in Turkey.

Well, US tried it before and failed didn't they? I'm sure that Erdogan is somewhat cornered right now. With 60% or more inflation, their economy is quite bad for his position. But that make him more dangerous. Because it means that he need something bigger to divert the public attention from him. If bombing Kurd or taking a fight against Greece can save his position, he'll take it.

 

[Foinikas]

So basically they will only bark and not bite? Alright, for the balance view, I hope some Turks can give me their insight about this conflict.

The Turkish side claims we "broke" the agreements or that old Treaties,like the Treaty of Lausanne or Paris,need to be re-opened. Basically,they ignore that up until 1973 or more specifically the late 80s,didn't consider any of what they talk about now,as violations of anything. They had no claims. Now they suddenly demand that we remove all garissons from the islands.
And not just that,Erdogan is annoyed by our Prime Minister visiting Greek islands in Eastern Aegean. It's like Australia telling the Indonesian government not to visit West Timor,because it's "provocative".

 

[Foinikas]

On the contrary, the Erdogan era has been as moderate towards Greece as only few governments in history have shown.The situation here is just the self-masturbation of a few of our Greek friends.

Are you serious? Moderate towards us as only few governments? Are you kidding? We hadn't had such tensions since 1996. Doesn't that say a lot? Constant war-loving rhetoric and expansionist maps of a supposed "Blue Homeland",that's moderate?

It is not a party policy. It also has no direct relationship with Erdogan. Our request for Greece is to remain faithful to the international agreements made between the two countries. Signature is honor. If Greece violates the agreements it has signed, we cannot stand by.

That is the problem: We haven't violated any agreement,we have remained faithful to international law. On the contrary,as the maps show,Turkey had been slowly increasing its claims through the years.

Mitsotakis' fate may be the same as his father.

What's that?