End of Empire?

[sachin@india]

Most people believe US regime is at the end of its wits and Obama is going to be the last president of US. Pretty much like Gorbachev for USSR. Either a coup will happen there after an imminent economic collapse which makes US bankrupt and dollar notes as toilet papers or that there will be massive revolts and civil war in US. I am sure world's responsible countries already have secretly rehearsed extensively so that when time comes they go in and secure the nukes. The international community can not allow a rogue regime and terrorists to have access to those loose nukes.

I think after that US will figure in "distinguised" list of Failed countries.

 

[Alchemy]

And if Aryan_B recalls his history classes even with American support they lost half their country and bangladesh was formed the last time they messed with us !!!

 

[LeGenD]

If this happen soon, it will put on record history- US become the first country shortest empire (30 years superpowers) compared to 1000-years Rome, Ottoman, Russian, British, all past empires.

Brother, you got it wrong.

USA has existed for over 200 years and has dominated for at-least a century. The entire 20th century (100 years) has been century of the USA. It is not easy to predict what may happen in the 21st century.

USSR lasted for 50 years, which is equal to the reign of the Alexander's Empire. These two are likely the shortest lasting reigns as superpowers?

 

[sachin@india]

US HAS TOO MANY CARDS UNDER HER SLEEVES

What a stronger Chinese yuan means for the US

A sharp rise in China's yuan currency might cut the US trade deficit by as much as one third and create enough American jobs to put at least a modest dent in the unemployment rate.

Then again, it may also lead to a destabilizing spike in Chinese unemployment and spark a trade war that drags the global economy back into a deep recession.

These are the conflicting forces US lawmakers must consider as they decide whether to pass a bill which would pressure Beijing into letting its currency rise more rapidly.

The debate over whether China's currency is undervalued is essentially closed. Beijing readily acknowledges that a gradual yuan appreciation is in its best interest, and it has allowed the currency to rise by about 6.5 per cent since June 2010.

Where the disagreement lies is how far and how fast the yuan ought to appreciate.

"The Chinese will scream, but the only times they've let their currency rise is when they're under pressure from the outside, so we should go ahead and do it," said Fred Bergsten, director of the Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics and a long-time critic of China's currency policy.

Bergsten is among the most vocal proponents of increasing the pressure on China, arguing that an undervalued yuan gives it an unfair trade advantage which harms the US economy.

He estimates that a 20 per cent rise in the yuan would reduce the US current account deficit by $50 billion to $100 billion. A more extreme move, say 40 per cent, would translate into as much as a $200 billion reduction.

About half of that would come from increased exports, mostly to China but also to other countries where China is now the dominant trade player. The other half would come from reduced imports from China.

The United States gains about 6,000 jobs for every $1 billion improvement in the trade balance, so $100 billion would work out to 600,000 jobs, he said. That is more than the anaemic US economy has generated in the past six months combined, and would be enough to shave about four-tenths of a point off the 9.1 per cent jobless rate.

Bergsten's view is not universally shared. Some economists argue that a stronger yuan would simply shift manufacturing to other low-cost producers such as Bangladesh or Vietnam, and the United States would still be uncompetitive.

"An appreciation of the yuan against the dollar would indeed reduce the US trade deficit with China, but it is unlikely to have a major effect on US job creation," said Eswar Prasad, a former International Monetary Fund official who now teaches international trade policy at Cornell University in New York.

China's state-owned Xinhua news agency was also dismissive of job creation claims.

"There has been no evidence to prove the link, claimed by the US lawmakers, between China's exchange rate and the US unemployment," Xinhua said in an English-language commentary published on Tuesday, adding that Washington "has to share a great part of the blame" for the trade imbalance.

The 2011 US trade deficit was $428 billion through July, up from $367 billion over the same period in 2010, according to US Commerce Department data.

China accounts for about 37 per cent of the 2011 total.

THE FLIP SIDE

For China's economy, a stronger yuan would reduce economic growth and increase unemployment, although there is a wide range of opinions among economists as to the magnitude.

Deutsche Bank economist Jun Ma examined this in June 2010, when China relaxed its grip on the yuan. His study showed that a 10 per cent yuan appreciation would reduce real gross domestic product by 0.6 per cent, a relatively modest hit in an economy growing at more than 9 per cent annually.

 

[longbrained]

I think after that US will figure in "distinguised" list of Failed countries.

Not really. US will break up and new little countries will pop up all around it. So there will not failed US since there will be no US just like there is no USSR. But a period will come there similar to 1990's for Russia. Poverty, crime and full of sh*t. You do not want to be there in that period of time. Lots of ex-Americans who are highly qualified will immigrate to other countries which will pay them more and give them safety. That is what happened with USSR. I am sure Indians would love to hire some Americans enmasse specially those who were working on hitech research industry. And this will cause again another competition between Pakistan and India. Who can hire more ex-American scientists kind of strategic game in South Asia.

 

[sachin@india]

Not really. US will break up and new little countries will pop up all around it. So there will not failed US since there will be no US just like there is no USSR. But a period will come there similar to 1990's for Russia. Poverty, crime and full of sh*t. You do not want to be there in that period of time. Lots of ex-Americans who are highly qualified will immigrate to other countries which will pay them more and give them safety. That is what happened with USSR. I am sure Indians would love to hire some Americans enmasse specially those who were working on hitech research industry. And this will cause again another competition between Pakistan and India. Who can hire more ex-American scientists kind of strategic game in South Asia.

You have good sense of humor.

Listen mate... come out of your delusion world and talk some sense for a change. Forget about the Indian perspective think from a pakistan's perspective. Do you know US is the only country against whom pakistan has trade surplus ? Most of your remittances and aids come from US. collapse of US economy would be a disaster news for whole especailly for china which having a trade surplus of 320 bn $ against US.

 

[jetti]

And Pakistan can finally be free.

Pakistan will be truly free only when it abandons it's version of religion

 

[fd24]

Pakistan will be truly free only when it abandons it's version of religion

I dont think religion should be brought into a thread of this nature.

 

[longbrained]

You have good sense of humor.

Listen mate... come out of your delusion world and talk some sense for a change. Forget about the Indian perspective think from a pakistan's perspective. Do you know US is the only country against whom pakistan has trade surplus ? Most of your remittances and aids come from US. collapse of US economy would be a disaster news for whole especailly for china which having a trade surplus of 320 bn $ against US.

Not really. US has caused 70 billion dollars worth of damage to Pakistan's economy in the last 10 years alone, not counting indirect damages and the cost of lives. Pakistan will survive without US easily, just like it did in 1990's. China too. Once US is gone and dollar is vanished, China does not need to export to US to get dollars to buy oil. China will start to pay in Yuan. Also USSR was a big trading partner of China. China survived the demise of USSR and actually benefited from it. So there is no reason to worry. Though in all this mess, India might not get its nuclear deal. That will be the only real loss to South Asian economy. The rest will be ok. Pakistan has the direct progeny of Mughal empire was alive when there was no US around. Pakistan will remain too after US is gone.

 

[VelocuR]

Brother, you got it wrong.

USA has existed for over 200 years and has dominated for at-least a century. The entire 20th century (100 years) has been century of the USA. It is not easy to predict what may happen in the 21st century.

USSR lasted for 50 years, which is equal to the reign of the Alexander's Empire. These two are likely the shortest lasting reigns as superpowers?

I think, you got incorrect. Yes, US existed for 200+years. The status of superpower was started after the defeating Soviet, their economy was massively growing while enemy was declined.

Heck, there was very difficult years of 20 century due to WW1 and WW2, all of these countries were very competitions and US wasbusy developing their internal matters, yes USSR's opportunities system failed but remember old Russian Empire was longest (1721–1917). Though US's status of powers only started in 30 years ago, the end of power, probably hard to predict, likely last in another20 years or sooner. Many countries today no longer to listen US.

You must be miscalculation. Sir, please stop gospels US, it is rarely you discuss other topics including your country many issues here on forum.

 

[Bobshouse]

Not really. US has caused 70 billion dollars worth of damage to Pakistan's economy in the last 10 years alone, not counting indirect damages and the cost of lives. Pakistan will survive without US easily, just like it did in 1990's. China too. Once US is gone and dollar is vanished, China does not need to export to US to get dollars to buy oil. China will start to pay in Yuan. Also USSR was a big trading partner of China. China survived the demise of USSR and actually benefited from it. So there is no reason to worry. Though in all this mess, India might not get its nuclear deal. That will be the only real loss to South Asian economy. The rest will be ok. Pakistan has the direct progeny of Mughal empire was alive when there was no US around. Pakistan will remain too after US is gone.

I dont think you understand how inter-twined the Chinese and US economies really are. If the US goes down now it will be a disaster for China. They are both stuck with each other, like it or not for the foreseeable future. And really the USSR was a basket case economy, it was not very large at all. It just chose to spend all its money on military while its people ate cabbage. If anything it will be Russia that will need to watch out for internal fighting over the next decades. I predict Russia will lose at least one territory over the next 50 years.
But in terms of empires, the US has amassed the most powerful empire this world has even seen. They could could probably take on the entire world combined and put up a good fight. Just carpet nuke entire continents. The future empires will be blocks of economies like the EU or like minded countries working together. The days of having the biggest sticks that wields you the most power are coming to an end.

 

[lem34]

And if Aryan_B recalls his history classes even with American support they lost half their country and bangladesh was formed the last time they messed with us !!!

you are offf topic. I could teach you a few lessons in history. The start of the end of american empire has already starter no matter how touchy you indians or americans get. Of you wnat to live in denial its a matter for you.

 

[PERSIAN GOD KING]

USA is only a superpower in its own eyes.

 

[LeGenD]

I think, you got incorrect. Yes, US existed for 200+years. The status of superpower was started after the defeating Soviet, their economy was massively growing while enemy was declined.

No, you got this wrong.

Before WWII, there were 6 superpowers; USA, British Empire, French Empire, Germany, USSR, and Japan.

WWII left USA and USSR as two remaining superpowers.

After COLD WAR; USA was labelled as the sole superpower.

Heck, there was very difficult years of 20 century due to WW1 and WW2, all of these countries were very competitions and US wasbusy developing their internal matters, yes USSR's opportunities system failed but remember old Russian Empire was longest (1721–1917). Though US's status of powers only started in 30 years ago, the end of power, probably hard to predict, likely last in another20 years or sooner. Many countries today no longer to listen US.

See my explanation above. And many nations still listen to USA. Don't be fooled by media propaganda.

You must be miscalculation. Sir, please stop gospels US, it is rarely you discuss other topics including your country many issues here on forum.

Not my fault. Majority of topics are focused on US in these days. I just address the misconceptions.

Also, you need to learn a lot about ground realities.

USA is only a superpower in its own eyes.

I suppose IRAN should be termed as superpower?

 

[PERSIAN GOD KING]

EDITTT........