Economic Survey 2008-2009: paints a dreary picture

[ajpirzada]

wat a way to run the economy...
incase money from FoP faces any delay we have got plans to go to IMF!!!!!!!!!!!!
and incase IMF asks for some tough conditions, i guess we should tell uncle tarin to have a plan ready with ADB and Word Bank as well. not of forget our new life line - Islamic Development Bank.
these ppl will leave pakistan after 4 more yrs and then we will have to live with these loans.
they have got very energatic plan in place to get electricity from central asia but still no plan to utilise Thar Coal reserves. our provincial govts and federal govt can even take care of few disputes amongst themselves how are they gonna run the country?
CoD will only get implimented in the last yr of this gov. 17th ammendment will stay inplace untill zardari is sure enough that his days in presidency are numbered.
are we ever gonna think about our 'self-respect'
bloody politics and bloody NRO

 

[Hasnain2009]

Consider it a glass half empty mate, it could have been much worse.
Many developped and stronger economies are shrinking, we atleast managed to grow a modest 2%.

lol....
Pakistan is not dependent on world economy, pakistan's economy is falling bcoz of lack of pakistani govt, even bangladesh's growth is 5.0%,
and US's is in reccession, and thier exchange rates are falling, but pakistan's exchange rates are falling with more speed!

 

[muse]

wat a way to run the economy...

Is it asking too much that there be a systematic planning, you will note that Mr. Tarin (I used to be a successful banker, and now can't seem to plan my appointments) says he" hopes" things will change for the better - think about that -- I hopes so too and I'm reasonably sure, you and many others do as well, shall we not draw salaries, privelages and perks such as Mr. Tarin does?

I think journalists have been most unwilling to criticize this govt, sorry, "democratic" govt, even when it would help this govt get it's act to together, the entirety of this PPP govt's economic program is a begging bowl. If this is democracy, who needs it, other than politicians and bureaucrats who live off shavings from foreign loan and aid programs.

 

[Hasnain2009]

Consider it a glass half empty mate, it could have been much worse.
Many developped and stronger economies are shrinking, we atleast managed to grow a modest 2%.

Do u know our population is growing with rate of 1.8-2% per year,
and we atleast need growth b/w 7-9% to give jobs to our youth!

 

[SecularHumanist]

This government is so incompetent. They seem to have no clue or policy other than going around the world and begging. This has been like the most embarrassing time for Pakistanis. Our government is going around the world with a begging bowl, and we ask why Pakistan is being treated with such disdain from foreign countries. I don't think any of those other yahoos (Nawaz and co) can do anything either. We have seen what great things they have done in the past

 

[opinion786]

GDP growth estimates of 2.37pc fudged: official


Sunday, May 17, 2009


ISLAMABAD: The government has fudged the figures in an attempt to bring the reasonable GDP growth estimates of 2.37 per cent of ongoing fiscal close to the target of 2.5 per cent as agreed with International Monetary Fund.

If the government did not manoeuvre the figures, the GDP growth for current fiscal would be 0.5 per cent even if the cut in the size of GDP of fiscal 2007-08 by 1.7 per cent from 5.78 per cent to 4.1 per cent was acknowledged. And if the last year’s GDP of 5.78 per cent is kept as base, the GDP growth of the current fiscal must stand at -1 per cent, reveals the detailed investigation conducted by the News.

“The National Account Committee that met here on Saturday put its credibility on stake as it approved without any objection the working paper on GDP prepared by Federal Bureau of Statistics,” a senior official told The News.

For instance, the Federal Bureau of Statistics (FBS) did not include in the national accounts the growth in Large Scale Manufacturing of -7.7 per cent registered during July-March period, instead it included the growth of LSM registered during July-February period that stands at -5.7 per cent, the official said.

Moreover FBS included dubious figures of growth of major crops in GDP growth estimates for 2008-09. According to Planning Commission’s Annual Development Plan (ADP) for 2007-08, the major crops growth target was 4.5 per cent. Under the ADP, the target of wheat was earmarked at 24 million tonnes, rice 5.7 million tonnes, sugarcane 56.5 million tonnes and cotton 14.1 million bales.

But in the working paper prepared by FBS which NAC approved, it has been shown that rice produce in the ongoing fiscal has been estimated at 6.96 million tonnes as against target of 5.7 million tonnes; but wheat produce estimates have reduced to 23.4 million tonnes against target 24 million tonnes, cotton 11.8 against 14.1 million bales and sugarcane 50 million tonnes against 56.5 million tonnes.

However, the working paper of FBS shows that major crops growth has increased to 7.7 percent despite the decline in growth of three major crops as against the target of 4.5 percent.

If the real picture of the major crops is accounted for, the agriculture growth stands at 2.7 per cent and if the LSM growth of -7.7 per cent in July-March period and agriculture growth of 2.7 per cent is included in the national accounts the GDP growth of country for the ongoing fiscal stands at 0.5 per cent.

Advisor to Prime Minister on Finance Shaukat Tarin when contacted for comments over the massive reduction in last year’s GDP growth from 5.78 per cent to 4.1 per cent by FBS and NAC and not including the LSM growth in July-March period in national accounts and inclusion of faulty major crops figures in national accounts, he said: “Let me find out as to what has been approved by National Accounts Committee and then I will come to you for comments for response.”

When he was informed that the NAC approved the working paper of FBS as it is, of which the copy is available with The News, he said it is quite alarming if it happened so.

However, latter The News tried again and again for comments but his cell phone was found powered off.

The official who attended the NAC meeting said that the FBS has also took a dubious decision to drastically reduce the last year GDP growth by 1.7 percent from 5.78 percent to 4.1 percent.

The official said for last 10 years it never happened that growth of last year has drastically been adjusted downward. “The said decision has been apparently taken to reduce the base so that the GDP for current fiscal could be shown at reasonable level closed to 2.5 percent GDP target.”

In 2006-07, the provisional growth was at 7 percent, which got later revised at 6.8 per cent and finalized also at 6.8 per cent. However, the provisional GDP growth for 2007-08 was calculated at 5.78 per cent, which has been finalized by National Accounts Committee at 4.1 percent.

The official also disclosed that one of the participants objected on non-inclusion of LSM growth till March which is of -7.7 per cent, but the FBS official said that the month of March was abnormal because of the Long March activities so the growth in March was not included knowing the fact that whole current fiscal remained the abnormal year but it did not mean the abnormal months and year should not be includes in national accounts.

Head of the National Accounts Wing in FBS could not be contacted for comments despite many attempts.

GDP growth estimates of 2.37pc fudged: official

 

[opinion786]

Economy shows negative growthin dollar terms

* Experts point at fudging figures

KARACHI: Pakistan’s economy has shown negative growth in dollar terms owing to the depreciation of rupee against the greenback and experts have said that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth figures were fudged.

The GDP grew by 2 percent during the current fiscal year, claims the government. This growth rate was achieved by revising the previous year’s GDP growth rate from 5.8 percent to 4.1 percents. Economists say that this revision has been done very late. “Normally the figures are revised within three to four months,” says Dr Shahid Hassan, a renowned economist. “This is clear evidence of fudging: either the growth rate of 5.2 percent was fudged or the revised rate is fudged,” he added.

Regarding the performance of the economy, he says: “This performance can be summed up in one word—disastrous.” Shaukat Tareen, the advisor to the PM on finance, had admitted during May this year that the 2.37 percent GDP growth estimate for current fiscal year worked out by the Federal Bureau of Statistics and endorsed by National Accounts Committee was fudged as they had not included the largest ever negative growth witnessed by the large-scale manufacturing.

The government released the Economic Survey of Pakistan on Thursday, which did not mention the contraction of economy in dollar terms. Nor did it say anything about the “methodology” according to which the growth rate of 2 percent was achieved.

The GDP growth declined to 2 percent in the current fiscal year from an average of 7 percent in the past six years. “This would have come in even lower, at 0.4 percent, had officials not revised the GDP numbers for the previous fiscal year,” says Sayem Ali, Country Economist at the Standard Chartered Bank. The economy shrank to $161 billion in FY09 from $165 billion in FY08, reflecting the 18.4 percent decline in the value of the Pakistani rupee (PKR) in the last 12 months.

However, with GDP growth at three percent and inflation at nine percent the economy is expected to grow in dollar terms for the next fiscal year as the rupee is expected to remain in the band of Rs 84 to Rs 86 a dollar, which is five percent depreciation only. The saving grace for the economy has been the positive performance of the agricultural sector which expanded by 4.7 percent on account of bumper wheat and rice crops. Higher support prices and water availability have helped to improve farm output and support more than 2.2 million workers involved in the rural economy.

Regarding the medium-term future of the economy, Ali says that persistently high inflation, tough measures taken under the IMF programme, and the rising security-related expenditure are weighing heavily on the economy. The economy is slowing to a near-halt, he says. “Pakistan’ economy is slipping into recession,” he says. “The policy fous needs to shift from stabilisation to growth in order to avoid this situation.” The government went to the IMF for a $7.6 billion loan in November 2008 as it faced a balance-of-payments crisis and quick depletion of foreign exchange reserves. The subsequent build-up of forex reserves and a stable rupee have helped to bring down inflation and allow the government to meet its external debt obligations. saad khan

Daily Times - Leading News Resource of Pakistan

 

[muse]

For a bunch of smart people why are you guys so careless - you just want to roll the dice, you don't want to examine how Nawaz's policies may improve the economy? Do you even know what his economic program may be?

"So much love, so carelessly misplaced"