DPP victory, what course of action should China be prepared to take ?

[Sasquatch]

DPP won the election not a surprise, however this is not to much of a concern they will not declare independence, that window of opportunity was gone in the 90's. They will keep status quo. The DPP is obviously going to increase ties with Japan and US, strengthen the ROC armed forces, and keep up the usual anti china rhetoric. I however do see if the DPP steps out of line Beijing will enforce economic pressure, have the remaining countries that recognize the ROC to break off relations, and speed up the PLA's modernization now that is it in power. Just my thoughts.

@Nihonjin1051 @LeveragedBuyout @Lure @Shotgunner51 @TaiShang @Chinese-Dragon @Martian2 @KAL-EL @ahojunk @ChineseTiger1986@faithfulguy@mike2000 is back @Dungeness
any other opinions ?

 

[ahojunk]

Taiwan president-elect says will not be provocative with China

Taiwan president-elect Tsai Ing-wen said on Saturday she would not be provocative in relations with China, the self-ruled island's giant neighbor that claims Taiwan as an errant province.

(Reporting by J.R. Wu and Ben Blanchard)

----------------------
@Hu Songshan

These are my thoughts.

Provoking the dragon unnecessarily does not benefit anyone, least of all Taiwan.

Moreover, it will cause great harm to the entire region, including ASEAN.

Tsai Ing-wen could say all the bullsh*t she wants before the election but once elected she has to be very careful.

Now, what she says and does will be held to account.

IMHO, China has lots of "political and economic screws" and can squeeze Taiwan if required.

If Taiwan misbehaves, no other power will come to her aid.

Reason being, how many times can they help?

Taiwan is a core interest of China, if China fails the first time, China will try again and again till successful.

The frightening thing is that China will become much more powerful for each subsequent try.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

They want to keep the status quo, which is perfectly fine for us.

We add around a trillion to our economy every year. What we want is for people to keep waiting around, because that's exactly what favors us, the passage of time.

The longer they wait, the more our relative power increases. They can wait forever if they want, until China eventually has a GDP per capita the same as my city of HK and becomes far too powerful to handle in any sphere.

 

[dy1022]

We need 5-10 years time at the most !

 

[xunzi]

If they provoke, there will be a price to pay.

 

[Genesis]

DPP won the election not a surprise, however this is not to much of a concern they will not declare independence, that window of opportunity was gone in the 90's. They will keep status quo. The DPP is obviously going to increase ties with Japan and US, strengthen the ROC armed forces, and keep up the usual anti china rhetoric. I however do see if the DPP steps out of line Beijing will enforce economic pressure, have the remaining countries that recognize the ROC to break off relations, and speed up the PLA's modernization now that is it in power. Just my thoughts.

@Nihonjin1051 @LeveragedBuyout @Lure @Shotgunner51 @TaiShang @Chinese-Dragon @Martian2 @KAL-EL @ahojunk @ChineseTiger1986@faithfulguy@mike2000 is back @Dungeness
any other opinions ?

The key in any conflict is not to let others dictate the pace. We do our thing, they do theirs. China would be foolish to let a little island dictate our priorities.

Mao said to wait 100 years, too many anti revolutionaries today for Taiwan to be worth anything. While anti revolutionaries are a thing of the past, this lack of respect is real. 2049, a perfect date for China to take command. While some have doubted Taiwan's commitment to being Chinese, I have never seen anyone doubt the attractiveness of absolute power.

Nothing makes the heart swoon, more than cold hard cash.

In the mean time, I doubt anyone will push China too far, and in case that does happen. This is 2016, not 1996. A couple of ducks in water just isn't that scary.

 

[AndrewJin]

DPP has promised status quo, aka "no unification, no independence, no military conflicts".

I'm totally for DPP in office,
If KMT continues ruling the legislature and presidency, China will never have any chance of unification since KMT and CPC have intertwined history. But DPP is not. The best scenario for China is DPP initiates some low-scale conflict, and China can intervene. In fact, US likes KMT more, cause DPP during 2000-2008 when they ruled Taiwan was a troublemaker.

Most Chinese netizens are in favour of DPP, not because they like DPP but DPP will provide bigger chances, such as more companies will flee to mainland, more high-skilled labour will migrate to mainland, more pro-ROC countries will have diplomatic ties with PRC(except Vatican with which China rejects an official relation).

 

[Martian2]

I think the DPP won the election primarily due to the egregious performance of the KMT regarding food safety.

The KMT botched the gutter-oil scandal. Firstly, it should never have happened. Secondly, the offenders should have received lengthy prison sentences. Instead, the perpetrators were never punished. The KMT resembles the Republican Party in the United States. They go too far in protecting big business.

Also, the KMT botched the plasticizer problem in food. The use of plasticizers is illegal, but the detection came too late.

The Taiwanese electorate properly elected the DPP (not only for the presidency but the the legislative seats) into office to fix the food scandals. Additionally, the Taiwanese electorate wanted to teach the KMT a lesson.

The new DPP president of Taiwan is smart. She knows that she has to deliver on the economic issues. She has to increase jobs and average pay. This requires China's help. President-elect Tsai Ing-wen should push through many economic pacts with China. She and her party wants to stay in power.

With respect to foreign policy, the United States decides how far Taiwan can go. Otherwise, the United States will tell Taiwan that it is on its own. The United States has enough problems on its plate without trying to defend Taiwan, which is only 100 miles from the coast of mainland China.

In conclusion, I think the status quo will prevail.

 

[Aepsilons]

DPP won the election not a surprise, however this is not to much of a concern they will not declare independence, that window of opportunity was gone in the 90's. They will keep status quo. The DPP is obviously going to increase ties with Japan and US, strengthen the ROC armed forces, and keep up the usual anti china rhetoric. I however do see if the DPP steps out of line Beijing will enforce economic pressure, have the remaining countries that recognize the ROC to break off relations, and speed up the PLA's modernization now that is it in power. Just my thoughts.

@Nihonjin1051 @LeveragedBuyout @Lure @Shotgunner51 @TaiShang @Chinese-Dragon @Martian2 @KAL-EL @ahojunk @ChineseTiger1986@faithfulguy@mike2000 is back @Dungeness
any other opinions ?

Japan welcomed the victory of Taiwan’s pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party leader Tsai Ing-wen in the presidential election on Saturday, saying Tokyo hopes to strengthen relations with Taipei under her leadership.Calling Taiwan “an important partner and a precious friend” that shares “basic values,” Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida said in a statement that the outcome of the election shows democracy has “deeply taken root” in Taiwan.

As Japan has maintained a “working relationship on a nongovernmental basis” with Taiwan, Kishida said the government “will work toward further deepening cooperation and exchanges between Japan and Taiwan.”

Significance? I expect Japan to work closely with Taiwan and boost measures to increase security and stability with China (prc) ala cooperation with Taiwan. As Taiwan, as ever, has always been the conduit in which Tokyo has used to improve relations with the Chinese Motherland (Mainland as being the heart of 中文世界).

This is a positive step. One positive towards as what my friend @TaiShang and i refer to as the "East Asian Revival".

Anyways, as always, let us explore this step through the historical lens. I cannot help but remember that prior to forging the historical 1978 Treaty of Peace and Friendship between the People's Republic of China and Japan, Tokyo had also signed the Treaty of the Sino-Japanese Communique with Taiwan earlier in 1972, upon which the 1978 TPOF was built upon. And upon which relations improved for 3 decades in said paradigm.


Regards.

 

[XiaoYaoZi]

中国内政，大部分也是中国网友，不想跟外国人讨论，不用英文。
现在的台海局势不同于十多年前了，十多年前闹独立可能还着急一下，现在敢宣布独立，不用老共出手，AIT一个电话就解决了。现在要急着统一的话，成本还是太高，无论用什么方法，都会留不小的后患。时间越拖越有利于大陆，等把美日拖到半死，台湾顺手带一下就回来了。

现 在大陆的一些急统派（急于武统）有点类似于台湾的独派，都不把对方当作自己人。越不把对方当作自己人就越容易走极端，两岸问题解决的最终目的是都把对方变 为自己人。现时的地区独立某种意义上形同于古时的造反，在古代是大不赦之罪，所以老共对于梧桐的看法是“你敢独我就打”，而台湾大部分民众的想法却是“你 要打我就独”，所以解决台湾问题的关键还是要中央恩威并施继续扩大各种渠道的“交流”，将“他们被视作自己人，而且敢独，就会被打”这一思想传递到台湾大众中 去。现在台湾台面上的那些领导人，无非是继续忽悠民众来攫取利益而已，才不会干冒坐牢挨导弹的奇险去挺独。当初丫扁挺独也不为真独，而是用台独来狙击中国 概念股而已，差点给主子（美国人）惹出祸来，没等老共出手就让主子给摁下去，然后送到号子里去了。有丫扁的先例，而且大陆的实力也远非十年前，蔡英文才不 会干傻事，不过他这几年的日子绝不会好过。

经济上，日韩台高于大陆本就是短时间（一两代人）偶然现象，大陆强过周边却是历史的常态和天下大势。即便是立即和统，由于经济上暂时的优势带来的心理上的优越感也需要时间来消退，有香港的教训在那儿，大陆也没兴趣平添两千万怨民给自己扯后退。等台湾的经济水准由于长期内耗掉到大陆倒数十以内时，等到连美国都不敢卖武器给台湾时（就像现在的英法徳），等到中国的政治制度优越性映射到其他国家时，台湾离回归不远了。民粹有个“好处”，那就是极容易受到外部势力左右（如果外部势力的影响力够强）。

蔡英文要是不支持“92共识”，那就先把大陆每年送的一千多亿美元的顺差减个百十来亿再说。

 

[Dungeness]

Not for too long, the status quo will face the first real challenge when it comes to so called "92 Consensus". Mainland will force DPP to clearly reaffirm it, and DPP will play all kind of word games to evade it, that is when things will get interesting. Anyway, the mainland has way more cards than Taiwan, just prepare for a long game. For now, the free ride should be over.

Where is @TaiShang these couple of days? Weeping somewhere?

 

[kankan326]

Japan welcomed the victory of Taiwan’s pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party leader Tsai Ing-wen in the presidential election on Saturday, saying Tokyo hopes to strengthen relations with Taipei under her leadership.Calling Taiwan “an important partner and a precious friend” that shares “basic values,” Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida said in a statement that the outcome of the election shows democracy has “deeply taken root” in Taiwan.

As Japan has maintained a “working relationship on a nongovernmental basis” with Taiwan, Kishida said the government “will work toward further deepening cooperation and exchanges between Japan and Taiwan.”

Significance? I expect Japan to work closely with Taiwan and boost measures to increase security and stability with China (prc) ala cooperation with Taiwan. As Taiwan, as ever, has always been the conduit in which Tokyo has used to improve relations with the Chinese Motherland (Mainland as being the heart of 中文世界).

This is a positive step. One positive towards as what my friend @TaiShang and i refer to as the "East Asian Revival".

Anyways, as always, let us explore this step through the historical lens. I cannot help but remember that prior to forging the historical 1978 Treaty of Peace and Friendship between the People's Republic of China and Japan, Tokyo had also signed the Treaty of the Sino-Japanese Communique with Taiwan earlier in 1972, upon which the 1978 TPOF was built upon. And upon which relations improved for 3 decades in said paradigm.


Regards.

Hehe. China is Taiwan's biggest importer. Japan is Taiwan's biggest exporter. Tsai wants to ally her main supplier to challenge her main customer. We can see how good the TW's economy will be.

 

[Aepsilons]

Hehe. China is Taiwan's biggest importer. Japan is Taiwan's biggest exporter. Tsai wants to ally her main supplier to challenge her main customer. We can see how good the TW's economy will be.

Taiwan enjoys a net positive trade with Japan, as it does with the Mainland. Anyways, it seems that it is in Taiwan where many Japanese and Chinese (mainland) collaborate on a host of sectors; ranging from academic, political research, economics, et al. Ive always resigned to the notion as Taiwan as the very coronary artery wherein Japan can reach Chinese Heart.

 

[AndrewJin]

Not for too long, the status quo will face the first real challenge when it comes to so called "92 Consensus". Mainland will force DPP to clearly reaffirm it, and DPP will play all kind of word games to evade it, that is when things will get interesting. Anyway, the mainland has way more cards than Taiwan, just prepare for a long game. For now, the free ride should be over.

Where is @TaiShang these couple of days? Weeping somewhere?

DPP does not recognise the existence of "1992 consensus", aka "one China, respective interpretations".
I can foresee mainland China will siphon money and human resources from Taiwan at a much higher pace instead of the previous conciliation policies. We will witness more acquisitions and mergers, a bigger flow of human capital, and unfortunately, a less competitive island. The recent collaboration on semiconductor across the strait is a start. We have already seen more and more scientists and technicians in mainland universities.

 

[Economic superpower]

Taiwan knows it's economic future is with mainland China. If they try any stupid stuff like Japan did, the Taiwanese economy will turn into a complete failure like the Japanese economy.