Is a second Sino-Indian border war imminent?
Feng Zhang, August 11, 2017
The Sino-Indian standoff in the Doklam (
Donglang in Chinese) region of the Himalayas where the borders of China, India and Bhutan converge is now nearly two months old. The dispute arose in mid-June when China attempted to build a road in an area it believed to be under its sovereign control, provoking Indian authorities to block the construction by crossing the Sino-Indian border with troops and bulldozers.
As yet there’s little sign of an end to the standoff. On the contrary, talk of war is now heard from both sides, and Chinese voices, both official and unofficial, are particularly strident in accusing India of ‘invading’ Chinese territory.
How likely is it that the current standoff will escalate into a border war? I’ll first assess the probability from the Chinese side.
That China should want to fight a war with India at this moment seems a highly unlikely prospect. Beijing is about to hold the BRICS summit in Fujian province. That gathering is one of the two major ‘home-field’ foreign policy events of this year, the other being the Belt and Road Initiative summit held in May. A war with India would upset proceedings.
Second, the Chinese Communist Party under the leadership of President Xi Jinping is in the final stage of organising the 19th Party Congress. The once-every-five-years party congress is the most important event in Chinese politics, and President Xi is expected to consolidate his power for a second five-year term. With stability a top priority for Chinese leaders, a war with India would create undesirable complications.
Third, Chinese policymakers can’t fail to notice that China is facing a number of security contingencies along its vast periphery. It’s unclear whether the standoff with India is the most significant. From North Korea to the South China Sea, those scenarios are constantly occupying the minds of Chinese planners.
How important is the standoff with India in China’s overall strategic context? I suggest that, depending on different conceptions of strategic interests and ways to achieve them, the above arguments against war with India can be turned on their head.
First, although the diplomatic success of the BRICS summit is desirable, territorial sovereignty now ranks as one of China’s highest national priorities. The summit will offer a precious chance for President Xi and Indian Prime Minister Modi to find a diplomatic solution. But if no agreement is reached the probability of a military showdown will increase significantly.
Second, an orderly party congress is desirable to further anoint Xi’s power and authority. But a successful limited war fought on Chinese terms won’t necessarily damage that prospect. On the contrary, such a war would rally Chinese elites and the public around Xi, who would be acclaimed the new strategic mastermind.
Third, Chinese moderates will oppose a war with India on the grounds that the national interests involved are nowhere as vital to generate such a forceful response. However, the hardliners, armed with a different set of strategic assumptions, will argue that such a punitive war promises unique strategic benefits. Aside from bending India to China’s will it would send a ripple effect throughout Asia about the new strategic reality of Chinese power and resolve. Moreover, with a weakened US, isn’t this an opportune moment for some strategic surprise? India and the US may have moved closer in recent years, but they aren’t treaty allies. In a war with China, India would fight alone.
Also Read: Indian military’s 7 ‘sins’ in trespassing into Chinese territory
In fact, China has been sending highly unusual signals in recent days. On 2 August, the foreign ministry published a 12-page position paper demonstrating India’s ‘invasion of Chinese territory’. From 3 August, within a 24-hour period, six organisations—the People’s Liberation Army Daily, the Xinhua News Agency, the foreign ministry (a second time), the defence ministry, the Chinese embassy in New Delhi, and the People’s Daily—delivered a barrage of warnings to India about the dire consequences of underestimating Chinese resolve.
In a speech marking the 90th anniversary of the founding of the PLA on 1 August, Xi sternly affirmed:
We will never permit anybody, any organisation, any political party to split off any piece of Chinese territory from China at any time or in any form. Nobody should nurse any hope that we will swallow the bitter fruit of harm to our national sovereignty, security and development interests.
If China is mobilising domestic support for a possible showdown, that will make any future compromise hard and costly and, consequently, a punitive war more attractive and acceptable. By now key Chinese elites and the public are convinced that India has ‘invaded’ Chinese territory and that a short, sharp war to expel Indian ‘invaders’ would be just and appropriate.
None of the above is to suggest that war is about to break out next week or next month. Chinese leaders will have to weigh the cost–benefit calculus before making the final call. One hopes that deft diplomacy will prevail—as has been the case since the last border war of 1962. But one shouldn’t rule out the possibility of conflict. Neither China nor India should be complacent about the current situation or underestimate the consequences if war does break out.
AUTHOR
Feng Zhang is a fellow in the Australian National University’s Department of International Relations and adjunct professor at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies in China. Image courtesy of Wikimedia Commons.
http://southasianmonitor.com/2017/08/11/second-sino-indian-border-war-imminent/
Neither India nor China has shown any sign of backing off from a face-off that began nearly three months ago along the Sikkim border when Indian soldiers entered the Doklam plateau to stop the Chinese army from constructing a road.
http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/indi...aised-report-1736676?pfrom=home-lateststories
Indian military’s 7 ‘sins’ in trespassing into Chinese territory
SAM Report, August 10, 2017
Nearly two months have passed since Indian troops illegally crossed the China-India boundary in Sikkim Sector, and there is no sign of withdrawal so far.
According to Xinhua, what the Indian side has done is committed seven “sins” against Chinese sovereignty and international law. These severe mistakes may trigger unpredictable consequences and greatly undermine regional peace and stability.
India’s military trespassing is an infringement of China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. On June 18, Indian border troops, carrying weapons and driving bulldozers, illegally crossed the boundary in the Sikkim Sector at the Duo Ka La (Doka La) pass and entered Chinese territory.
For almost two months, India has maintained its military presence in the Doklam area, a place recognized by both India and the international community as part of the Tibet Autonomous Region and Chinese sovereign territory.
It is fundamentally different in nature from past frictions between the border troops of the two sides at an undefined part of the boundary.
The blatant move contravenes the 1890 Convention between Great Britain and China Relating to Sikkim and Tibet, which has clearly delimited this part of the boundary between the Tibet Autonomous Region and India’s Sikkim State.
Every Indian government since independence has confirmed the boundary as it stands under the Convention. It is hard to understand why India abandons its previous position at this time.
Once a boundary is established by a convention, it is under the protection of international law. It is obvious that India’s military invasion, under the pretext of so-called “security concerns,” tramples on the principles of the law as well as international order and cannot be tolerated by any sovereign state.
Since the incident broke out, India has invented various excuses to whitewash its illegal move and smear China’s normal and legitimate activities, but its arguments have no factual or legal grounds and are simply untenable.
India has argued that China’s building of roads would represent a “significant change of status quo with serious security implications for India,” but the fact is, Chinese construction is being conducted within its own territory. It is India that has broken the status quo by trespassing onto Chinese soil.
Even more ridiculous, India has attempted to justify its incursion in the name of “protecting Bhutan,” arguing that Doklam is Bhutanese territory.
The fact is that the Bhutanese authorities have clearly told Chinese officials that Doklam is not Bhutan’s territory and expressed bewilderment at India’s trespassing into Chinese soil.
Matters concerning the China-India-Bhutan boundary tri-junction have nothing to do with this incident. By kidnapping an unrelated third party to stir up troubles in the border area, India seeks to obstruct border negotiations between China and Bhutan.
China has a strong will to solve the problem peacefully, but the prerequisite is that the Indian trespassers must withdraw unconditionally and immediately. China will never negotiate with an invading force when its national territorial integrity remains infringed.
The Indian side keeps playing lip service of seeking diplomatic channels to resolve the issue while refusing to withdraw its troops.
India must be fully aware that as a reckless intruder to its neighbors, it should take responsibility for inflaming border tensions and swallow possible consequences.
http://southasianmonitor.com/2017/08/10/indian-militarys-seven-sins-trespassing-chinese-territory/