Doha Peace Pact 2020 : US-Taliban Deal - Analysis

[StormBreaker]

This thread is just for DEEP Talks and Related long posts with rich content and analysis.
Respected Mods, Kindly don’t merge it or delete it.​

Some concerns and points regarding the recent development are clear.

• An extremely Fragile deal, Such that, even a week before signing such, there were constant verbal rift between usa and AFT in Afghanistan.
• USA has ego BUT it has a “FedUp of Afg war” Trump but to Trump, Ego AS WELL matters a lot of his country. He wants to leave but he wants to leave in respect and without Constant “GetOut” messages from AFT.
• USA can stage some drama to eventually hurt this deal, sometime sooner or later OR maybe not as well, former being the most probable. It seems almost too easy for them go off that easily on table. (Post 18 years war)
• Afghan front to Iran is really important to USA for a potential future conflict with Iran
• Very important Point to note here is that US will withdraw 4400 Troops from AFG in the next 3-4 months, leaving behind 8600, these 8600 are subject to AFT’s fulfillment of terms in the contract. What are the terms ? We don’t know yet (or do we ?). Though, these terms have been known to AFT since long but yet even till now, AFT has been speaking aggressively against USA. So the point is, AFT isn’t happy with terms but it is willing to cooperate all it can. Let’s see how this goes.
• Remaining 8600 are no less of a threat, if the agreement gets messed up (God Forbid), These remaining troops will still play their part in the proxies again, ANF and AFT remains unpredictable. Might be that, the budget required for these 8600 troops is something that won’t bother USA much as compared to current spendings, who knows ? They are cunning, very very cunning.
• US “WON’T intervene in Afghan domestic affairs ? So end of Ashraf Ghani regime ? Why so much rigging and delays in the recent election, just to be decided some weeks before the peace pact ?
• Now, “Dolaan Trump” visit to India just before the Pact, Coincidence ? Even if scheduled many months ago, something might have been discussed together, right ? Since this has been the most important soil for USA and India to play proxy with Pakistan or did Gen Raheel Sharif, NAP and Gen Qamar Bajwa disappoint the USA to such extent by fencing the border such that USA had no reason left to remain in Afghanistan, right ? Very definitely yes it is.
• British left India and Pakistan, disputed over Kashmir for a very long period, to date this has cost thousands of Lives and trillions of Dollars and Generations of education and Economic development and prosperity, Afghanistan will face a massive Civil war, AFT has good influence and power but so does Afghan Regime and ANF, both are almost equal in territory but one point of the deal raises some serious issue over here “US commits to dedicate funds, Training, Advice and equipment for ANF annually, This will act as a catalyst for a non ending civil war (Syria and Iraq comes in mind).
• Generations trained to become fighters, Low prospects to develop the nation soon into educational hub for the Afghan nationals and to seek FDI for local industries and Trade development, China is required here very much !!!
• In a hypothetical scenario, US has some troops left in Afghanistan, the deal goes bad, Forces are stuck, Pakistan will be primarily sought to help US. Pakistan helping US in this regard would be primarily on table, but if that doesn’t work out, US might try to milk Pakistan with some goodies to help out, But Pakistan doesn’t want to and definitely will not want to have any enmity with AFT or AFG.

Hope that this peace pact which seems like a dream to me becomes a dream come true as well In’Sha’ALLAH and that Afghanistan becomes a sovereign country, Afghanis residing in Pakistan return back to their country, Afghanis in middle east, UK, Canada and USA return as well, Just set up businesses, Rebuild it, Bring back their money and investment (Afghanis are quite rich people when it comes to owning businesses outside of Afghanistan, I know it very well), A strong and Stable Afghanistan is a Peace of Mind for Pakistan.

Brother @jaibi I thought this question would be best answered by you, Thousands of Children, Young and old men are used to arms for decades, have been subject to violence by USA and before that, by Soviets, How could Dis-Arming and Integrating them back to society and promoting common civilian culture happen ? Educating them, Industrializing Afghanistan, Bringing in FDI is the key, but what is more important above all is the “OWN WILL”, This is what stops even the regular decoits and beggars on streets to be productive in a civilized way. But i think AFT is quite Mature and will want themselves to drive the economy up & further by getting their own people trained, educated and integrating in working sectors. But it all comes down to “How to convince a person to change his current state of being a fighter and a warrior to being a Trader/Doctor/Professor ?”

@Mangus Ortus Novem @Irfan Baloch @The Eagle @Verve @SIPRA @Socra @Dubious @PakSword @aziqbal @Bratva @Foxtrot Alpha @Signalian @aliyusuf @HRK @fatman17 @Major Sam @Tempest II

Can we all gentlemen have a good and detailed conversation on this topic ? I am amazed to see the lack of importance by the big brains here towards the development. Off course, all others who have good points to share from their part as equally welcome here. But Must be specific to Afghanistan or the content outline below, nothing unnecessary.

Key points :

• Current pact outlines
• Possible hurdles
• Possible future solutions
• If everything goes alright, How does the region transform, Afghanistan Internally and externally
• Importance to Pakistan in short term as well as long term
• Importance to Iran
• ANF and Afghan Regime, How AFT and they coexist ? Civil war or a Mutual peace ?
• And most importantly, Pakistan AND USA relations post complete withdrawal, Pakistan’s importance to USA, Ally status, What comes of it ?

Let’s start !!!

No one liners please, it’s been some time since PDF has seen some good threads, let make this one, or any of your choice, a good thread

 

[StormBreaker]

@Mangus Ortus Novem Was writing this as a reply to your post, but thought, how about get everyone on board and have a huge discussion, hoping to see some beauty from your side as always.

 

[HRK]

"Peace is an interval between wars"

In case of Afghanistan it's a divine Truth .....

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

A strategic ploy, to allow the Taliban force leadership to loosen their security and be in a state of relaxation. The Leadership could again be targetted once they are not in hiding

US military has not left the region , it is merely a ploy to reduce their direct enemies in region

This kind of seize fire agreements have been done across the Middle East many times in past these were called "Treaties" where the party taking up heavy casualties would hand out a piece of paper written in gold to another party for a seize fire.

a) Seize fire = Removal of all forces in 48 hours to 7 days
b) Stopping of interference in local matters from outside


It will take 14 months almost 1 year for it to workout and that is an eternity as the regional politics changes in matter of 24 hours

If we recall not long ago "Mother of All Bombs was dropped" after one such similar talks of piece talks

 

[StormBreaker]

A strategic ploy, to allow the Taliban force leadership to loosen their security and be in a state of relaxation
The Leadership could again be targetted once they are not in hiding

US military has not left the region , it is merely a ploy to reduce their direct enemies in region

Afghanistan has borders with Iran, USA is present in Iraq but plans on reducing their presence and in turn leave Iraq as well. Here is where things get complicated and interesting... Syria is the key to the answer t all these developments.

@Mangus Ortus Novem Remember, Syria is the key to the answer, I don’t know and can’t figure out until i study the whole Syrian saga. Something to do with Turkey, Israel, Egypt and Russia inside Syria.

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

Just a move to reduce enemies

Instead of fighting all at once

a) Taliban
b) Yamani Arabs (I don't like to use the Houthi term)
c) Syrian Arabs (Again a Arab nation)
d) Iraqi (Iraq already requested US to leave their country after Suleimani Assassination)
e) Iranians (Again Persians/Arabs even Iranians have Arabic speakers)
f) Russians you know they are in the middle east now
g) US - Turkish relations not rosy at the moment
h) Most of Palestinian freedom groups, of course, are not on friend list


USA is trying to pull out perhaps to focus on other segments while crono virus is not what triggered a peace , as US military may be needed back home if it (the virus) spreads widely and from looks of it , the virus is spreading fast in USA now

The arrival of S-300 and S-400 to scene in middle east certainly means the ground operations would become more complicated, the C130 flights to be more complicated which dropped supplies

And in all honesty there is no need for USA to be in Afghanistan anymore

Pakistan has not really gained much from this drama, however Pakistan facilitated peace
and that is a great news

However we did not gained much

a) No F16
b) No T-129 engine clearance
c) No Super Cobras
d) Certainly do no talk of F16 V model​

So not really sure how this will pan out but it is just a break it seems


Yes a step in right direction , but unsure how this will pan out


For Pakistan a quieter Afghanistan means business as usual for local Trade

 

[StormBreaker]

"Peace is an interval between wars"

In case of Afghanistan it's a divine Truth .....

My concerned subject is the “Post-interval” part, that is what makes me curious, what would be the sides, will they be internal or as usual, Internal+External.

I know you have got it in you, give it a go brother. Make a small analysis or guess.

 

[aliyusuf]

@StormBreaker
Won't be the first time the Taliban could be handed over the reigns of the country ... their period of rule in the past, before 9/11, was highlighted with good law and order, no in-fighting amongst various factions and drug trade almost became non-existent.

But whatever chinks there may be in the deal that has been signed, these chinks will only begin to appear, if ever, after the US elections ... when the US may try to renege on what they have committed in the deal by one concocted excuse or the other. Not much untoward is likely to happen before the elections, as departing from Afghanistan and bringing back US troops back to the US was one of the major pre-election commitments of President Trump when first got elected.

However, I am not too hopeful of a lasting peace in Afghanistan ... that would be like giving the initiative back over to Pakistan and China. The west will not stand for it. They have been after Afghanistan since the mid-19th century. They will be back in one form or the other. This is the region from where they would be wanting to keep a check on the Russians and the Chinese. Especially after their village idiot of an ally in the region has made a hash of things of late ... and cannot even be entrusted with containing Pakistan let alone China.

 

[StormBreaker]

@StormBreaker
Won't be the first time the Taliban could be handed over the reigns of the country ... their period of rule in the past, before 9/11, was highlighted with good law and order, no in-fighting amongst various factions and drug trade almost became non-existent.

But whatever chinks there may be in the deal that has been signed, these chinks will only begin to appear, if ever, after the US elections ... when the US may try to renege on what they have committed in the deal by one concocted excuse or the other. Not much untoward is likely to happen before the elections, as departing from Afghanistan and bringing back US troops back to the US was one of the major pre-election commitments of President Trump when first got elected.

However, I am not too hopeful of a lasting peace in Afghanistan ... that would be like giving the initiative back over to Pakistan and China. The west will not stand for it. They have been after Afghanistan since the mid-19th century. They will be back in one form or the other. This is the region from where they would be wanting to keep a check on the Russians and the Chinese. Especially after their village idiot of an ally in the region has made a hash of things of late ... and cannot even be entrusted with containing Pakistan let alone China.

This was really helpful, the US elections, forgot that part completely, now seeing all this very differently !!!

If trump wins, Will he once again, revert the part or if the republicans win, Afghanistan will once again be turned into a violent battle ground ?

 

[PakSword]

This thread is just for DEEP Talks and Related long posts with rich content and analysis.
Respected Mods, Kindly don’t merge it or delete it.​

Some concerns and points regarding the recent development are clear.

• An extremely Fragile deal, Such that, even a week before signing such, there were constant verbal rift between usa and AFT in Afghanistan.
• USA has ego BUT it has a “FedUp of Afg war” Trump but to Trump, Ego AS WELL matters a lot of his country. He wants to leave but he wants to leave in respect and without Constant “GetOut” messages from AFT.
• USA can stage some drama to eventually hurt this deal, sometime sooner or later OR maybe not as well, former being the most probable. It seems almost too easy for them go off that easily on table. (Post 18 years war)
• Afghan front to Iran is really important to USA for a potential future conflict with Iran
• Very important Point to note here is that US will withdraw 4400 Troops from AFG in the next 3-4 months, leaving behind 8600, these 8600 are subject to AFT’s fulfillment of terms in the contract. What are the terms ? We don’t know yet (or do we ?). Though, these terms have been known to AFT since long but yet even till now, AFT has been speaking aggressively against USA. So the point is, AFT isn’t happy with terms but it is willing to cooperate all it can. Let’s see how this goes.
• Remaining 8600 are no less of a threat, if the agreement gets messed up (God Forbid), These remaining troops will still play their part in the proxies again, ANF and AFT remains unpredictable. Might be that, the budget required for these 8600 troops is something that won’t bother USA much as compared to current spendings, who knows ? They are cunning, very very cunning.
• US “WON’T intervene in Afghan domestic affairs ? So end of Ashraf Ghani regime ? Why so much rigging and delays in the recent election, just to be decided some weeks before the peace pact ?
• Now, “Dolaan Trump” visit to India just before the Pact, Coincidence ? Even if scheduled many months ago, something might have been discussed together, right ? Since this has been the most important soil for USA and India to play proxy with Pakistan or did Gen Raheel Sharif, NAP and Gen Qamar Bajwa disappoint the USA to such extent by fencing the border such that USA had no reason left to remain in Afghanistan, right ? Very definitely yes it is.
• British left India and Pakistan, disputed over Kashmir for a very long period, to date this has cost thousands of Lives and trillions of Dollars and Generations of education and Economic development and prosperity, Afghanistan will face a massive Civil war, AFT has good influence and power but so does Afghan Regime and ANF, both are almost equal in territory but one point of the deal raises some serious issue over here “US commits to dedicate funds, Training, Advice and equipment for ANF annually, This will act as a catalyst for a non ending civil war (Syria and Iraq comes in mind).
• Generations trained to become fighters, Low prospects to develop the nation soon into educational hub for the Afghan nationals and to seek FDI for local industries and Trade development, China is required here very much !!!
• In a hypothetical scenario, US has some troops left in Afghanistan, the deal goes bad, Forces are stuck, Pakistan will be primarily sought to help US. Pakistan helping US in this regard would be primarily on table, but if that doesn’t work out, US might try to milk Pakistan with some goodies to help out, But Pakistan doesn’t want to and definitely will not want to have any enmity with AFT or AFG.

Hope that this peace pact which seems like a dream to me becomes a dream come true as well In’Sha’ALLAH and that Afghanistan becomes a sovereign country, Afghanis residing in Pakistan return back to their country, Afghanis in middle east, UK, Canada and USA return as well, Just set up businesses, Rebuild it, Bring back their money and investment (Afghanis are quite rich people when it comes to owning businesses outside of Afghanistan, I know it very well), A strong and Stable Afghanistan is a Peace of Mind for Pakistan.

Brother @jaibi I thought this question would be best answered by you, Thousands of Children, Young and old men are used to arms for decades, have been subject to violence by USA and before that, by Soviets, How could Dis-Arming and Integrating them back to society and promoting common civilian culture happen ? Educating them, Industrializing Afghanistan, Bringing in FDI is the key, but what is more important above all is the “OWN WILL”, This is what stops even the regular decoits and beggars on streets to be productive in a civilized way. But i think AFT is quite Mature and will want themselves to drive the economy up & further by getting their own people trained, educated and integrating in working sectors. But it all comes down to “How to convince a person to change his current state of being a fighter and a warrior to being a Trader/Doctor/Professor ?”

@Mangus Ortus Novem @Irfan Baloch @The Eagle @Verve @SIPRA @Socra @Dubious @PakSword @aziqbal @Bratva @Foxtrot Alpha @Signalian @aliyusuf @HRK @fatman17 @Major Sam @Tempest II

Can we all gentlemen have a good and detailed conversation on this topic ? I am amazed to see the lack of importance by the big brains here towards the development. Off course, all others who have good points to share from their part as equally welcome here. But Must be specific to Afghanistan or the content outline below, nothing unnecessary.

Key points :

• Current pact outlines
• Possible hurdles
• Possible future solutions
• If everything goes alright, How does the region transform, Afghanistan Internally and externally
• Importance to Pakistan in short term as well as long term
• Importance to Iran
• ANF and Afghan Regime, How AFT and they coexist ? Civil war or a Mutual peace ?
• And most importantly, Pakistan AND USA relations post complete withdrawal, Pakistan’s importance to USA, Ally status, What comes of it ?

Let’s start !!!

No one liners please, it’s been some time since PDF has seen some good threads, let make this one, or any of your choice, a good thread

Thanks for the tag man.

I will write my analysis tomorrow in shaa Allah.

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

This is the main focus at present in USA

California has a large Iranian/Korean diaspora and Korea is the new hub for virus

Back to Afghanistan:

• It remains to be seen how the AFT will political evolve , how the traditional political powers will share the space with them , in past the groups have waged civil war

 

[StormBreaker]

Thanks for the tag man.

I will write my analysis tomorrow in shaa Allah.

Would be glad to check it out

This is the main focus at present in USA

Corona has got nothing to do with this topic, kindly don’t bring in unrelated topics, you are very much welcome to adhere to the topic outline i have set in the last part of the OP

 

[aliyusuf]

Afghanistan has borders with Iraq

No bro. Between Afghanistan and Iraq ... there is Iran.

If trump wins, Will he once again, revert the part or if the republicans win, Afghanistan will once again be turned into a violent battle ground ?

It is quite likely that such measures will be put in place to drive the region in a quagmire of unrest and chaos again. How effectively China, Pakistan and Russia counter that ploy ... will be the deciding factor.

 

[HRK]

My concerned subject is the “Post-interval” part, that is what makes me curious, what would be the sides, will they be internal or as usual, Internal+External.

I know you have got it in you, give it a go brother. Make a small analysis or guess.

What will happen nobody could say with certainty, but If you observe you will definitely recognize faultlines and active seismic zones; I will say current transitional phase is not a victory but potential to explode once again.

As long as Intera-Afghan negotiation is successfully concluded with written agreement I would refrain myself to accept it as achievement

 

[StormBreaker]

No bro. Between Afghanistan and Iraq ... there is Iran.


It is quite likely that such measures will be put in place to drive the region in a quagmire of unrest and chaos again. How effectively China, Pakistan and Russia counter that ploy ... will be the deciding factor.

Meant Iran*, sorry