Developing Ties Between Pak, Russia, China, Iran & the CARS

[SinoChallenger]

We are moving unavoidably toward a third world war, similar to how you could tell by 1911 that great power rivalry was going to lead to WW1.

USA plans to launch a ground attack on Iran within 5 years, before the Iranians successfully mass produce ballistic missiles capable of reaching Tel Aviv together with nuclear warheads. USA needs Afghanistan and possibly Pakistan as staging areas for the ground invasion, so USA will try to bully Pakistan. If Pakistan reacts with hostility, USA could say "Islamic extremists have taken over Pakistan, we must secure Pakistan's nukes."

USA will try to ally with india. india is already trying to develop the capability to fight a two-front war: push back PLA from the LAC with a sudden attack while launching Cold Start on Pakistan. india might shy away at first to push a harder bargain with Washington because india is also afraid of being cannon fodder for USA, but the temptation to knock out Pakistan and China at the same time with US help will be too much in the end.

China will need to task the entire Lanzhou military region and Chengdu military region to the indian theater of war. Meanwhile, to help relieve india, USA and its allies Japan and South Korea would probably open a second front by attacking North Korea, trying to bottle up PLAN in the East China Sea or South China Sea or blockade Chinese shipping through the Straits of Malacca. At least 70% of China's military strength cannot be deploy against india but must held back to defend against USA counterattacks.

The only reasonable solution is for China, Russia, Pakistan and Iran to form a military bloc -- the PRIC countries -- to defend ourselves. india and Vietnam both use Russian weapons and Russia can disable some of them using a back-door kill switch. China would also really benefit from Russian oil supply for the war, especially if the Straits of Malacca are cut by US Navy.

2012 will be a election year in the US and also a change of leadership in Beijing. But in 2013, the battle lines would be competely drawn and the PRIC formalized in SCO. The risk of global conflict involving both Middle East and East Asia is very high between 2013 and 2016, IMO.

 

[lem34]

and for that matter the distorted and simplistic commentary one sees from Western and liberal Pakistani commentators - see for example the 'Pakistan on steroids' article by another former Indian Ambassador.
.

i put that thread up and although i felt there was a bit of drama and exageration I thought that guys analysis was nearer to the bone than american and or indian propaganda that we are used to. Pakistan simply cannot be ignored or demoted as america wants in the neighbourhood and its even stupid to think or try as americans & Indians wish

 

[lem34]

I think the future for us has to be and will be pakistan iran china and russia much to the dissapointment of india and america

 

[somebozo]

Afghanistan and Iraq war is inevitably for oil and energy..no matter what names the US may give it..thou shall wage war by deception!!

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

China’s top diplomat arrives in Pak amid strained U.S. ties

ANANTH KRISHNAN

China’s top diplomat travelled to Pakistan on Friday on a visit officials said was aimed at taking the “all-weather” allies’ relationship to “a new high”, against the backdrop of renewed strains in Islamabad’s ties with Washington.

State Councillor Dai Bingguo, who is China’s most important official when it comes to foreign policy, arrived in the Pakistani capital on Friday, the State-run Xinhua news agency said.

He will meet Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Liu Weimin said at a briefing on Friday afternoon.

The visit, he added, part of both countries’ celebration of 60 years of diplomatic ties, and aimed at taking relations “to a new high.”

“Both sides will use the visit to discuss the future development of practical cooperation and exchange views on other issues of common concern,” said Mr. Liu. “China is satisfied with the present course of bilateral ties and has full confidence in prospects for future cooperation.”

Beyond the anniversary celebrations, Mr. Dai’s visit has assumed particular significance in the wake of last month’s attack by NATO forces on two Pakistani border posts, which left 24 Pakistani soldiers dead and 13 others injured.

The Pakistani army has indicated it will reject the findings of an investigation by the U.S. and NATO into the attack. Following the NATO-led attack, Pakistan has also asked the U.S. to vacate the Shamsi Airbase within 15 days and said it would close all NATO supply lines.

China has clearly conveyed to Pakistan it will fully back its position on the incident, and would stand together with Islamabad against any countries that “violate its sovereignty”, diplomatic sources told The Hindu.

The NATO strike, as well as the earlier May 2 raid by the U.S. to kill Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad, have strained ties between Islamabad and Washington.

China, however, emerged as the lone voice in the international community to strongly back an embattled Pakistani government which faced widespread criticism after the death of the former al-Qaeda leader.

China expressed “shock” at last month’s NATO raid, and said it expressed “strong concerns” at the violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi told his Pakistani counterpart Hina Rabbani Khar in a phone call last month that China would “consistently support Pakistan’s efforts in safeguarding national independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

He also called for “a thorough investigation”. He said China “was deeply shocked by the incident, noting that all countries and international organisations should earnestly respect Pakistan's independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Xinhua quoted him as saying.

Despite China’s voicing of strong support, Beijing has, so far, yet to significantly boost either financial or military support to Islamabad. Chinese officials have also recently denied claims by Pakistani officials that China was considering setting up a naval base in the port of Gwadar, which it has helped build.

Asked if there was a mismatch between China’s rhetoric and its actual willingness to boost support to Pakistan, one Chinese analyst who advises the government on its Pakistani policy told The Hindu in a recent interview it would be wrong to measure Chinese support in terms of military aid or “dollars.”

The analyst pointed to other areas where China had provided "invaluable" support to Pakistan, such as civilian nuclear cooperation. According to recent media reports, the State-run China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) is in talks with the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission over setting up two 1,000 MW plants at the Karachi Nuclear Power Plant, Kanupp-2 and Kanupp-3.

Mr. Liu of the Foreign Ministry did not say on Friday whether any agreements would be signed during Mr. Dai’s visit, although both Chinese and Pakistani officials have recently indicated the two countries will go ahead with nuclear cooperation despite international concerns, pointing out that all agreements were under International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards.

CNNC has already signed deals to set up at least four reactors in Pakistan. Its deals for two reactors in the Chashma nuclear complex came under international scrutiny last year, stirring concerns because they went against mandated guidelines of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), which prohibits the sale or transfer of nuclear technology to countries who have not signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

The Hindu : News / International : China

---------- Post added at 11:25 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:22 AM ----------

i put that thread up and although i felt there was a bit of drama and exageration I thought that guys analysis was nearer to the bone than american and or indian propaganda that we are used to. Pakistan simply cannot be ignored or demoted as america wants in the neighbourhood and its even stupid to think or try as americans & Indians wish

Yes, leaving out some of his more 'inflammatory rhetoric', his conclusions are very similar to those of Bhadrakumar - Bhadrakumar is refreshing to read because he dispenses with 'sensationalism' and sticks to, for the most part, dispassionate geo-political analysis based on, as I said, States/Power Players within States pursuing national security and strategic interests.

 

[somebozo]

Chinese diplomats regularly visit pakistan given the strategic ties between two nation..it has nothing to do with the US backdrop of worsening relations!

 

[lem34]

Yes, leaving out some of his more 'inflammatory rhetoric', his conclusions are very similar to those of Bhadrakumar - Bhadrakumar is refreshing to read because he dispenses with 'sensationalism' and sticks to, for the most part, dispassionate geo-political analysis based on, as I said, States/Power Players within States pursuing national security and strategic interests.

but agno I think what he says is just plain common sense, It amazes me that some people can not see through the "fog" of propaganda or read between the lines when especially american propaganda lies which at times as far as pakistan goes is certainly not subtle. Back to topic I think the future of our neighbourhood is china, russia, iran and pakistan and I think we are very lucky that indians played their part with Russia and Putin who will be in charge during this volatile time is not an idiot.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Chinese diplomats regularly visit pakistan given the strategic ties between two nation..it has nothing to do with the US backdrop of worsening relations!

I agree - I think the commentary on continued and increasing Pak-China-Russia-CAR-Iran cooperation is what is interesting ...

---------- Post added at 11:36 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:34 AM ----------

Aryan - what say we merge this thread with the "Eurasia ..' thread?

The visit of Dai is relatively meaningless outside of a larger context of discussion on the future direction of the region ...

I distinctly remember some other threads on the same topic - let me know if you find them so we can merge them.

 

[lem34]

[/COLOR]Aryan - what say we merge this thread with the "Eurasia ..' thread?

.

Yes sir could you do the necessary?

was it this one cos I have put a few different ones suggesting that china russia need to take some action?

http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-affairs/145260-unintended-consequences.html

 

[fd24]

Unless the USA are forced into a position of stopping their barbaric bullying - it is certainly inevitable - they are now looking at countries that have the capability of hitting back - on the face of it up to now they have been fighting with people that have their hands tied behind their backs. Now there are untied people waiting and they will hit back hard - resulting in sadly the inevitable.

 

[lem34]

^^^^^ immaterial of what america does if the four countries in question all follow their best lon term interests will draw them closer. Its the opposite of the american - pak relationship.

 

[lem34]

I really dont understand why if you guys are interested in pakistan more of you dont discuss this thread. This has more relevance than all the other threads put together

 

[StormShadow]

The relations between Russia and the US have recently deteriorated. They haven’t been so tense since the USSR times.
Some analysts start anticipating a new cold war, saying there are many reasons for that, including the anti-missile defense issue. Washington wants to deploy its anti-missile shield in some countries of Eastern Europe despite Moscow’s objections. In their turn, the Russian authorities are going to deploy their own “Iskander” missile systems in Kaliningrad region.

Russian and American mass media only add fuel to the fire by scaring people and searching endless sensations. One of the recent “bombs” that has exploded in the battlefield of this info war is the news that the Kremlin may deny the transportation of US military cargos through the Russian territory. If Pakistan does the same, the NATO coalition in Afghanistan will face multiple problems, including supply problems.

The Wall Street Journal: Russia Considers Blocking NATO Supply Routes

On Nov 28th 2011 The Wall Street Journal told the world about the existing problem in the article called “Russia Considers Blocking NATO Supply Routes”
Last Monday Dmitry Rogozin, Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to NATO, announced that Russia “may not let NATO use its territory to supply troops in Afghanistan if the alliance doesn't seriously consider its objections to a U.S.-led missile shield for Europe”.
According to Alan Cullison, “Threats to the NATO supply line through Russia come at an awkward time for the alliance. NATO has become increasingly reliant on the Russian route as problems in Pakistan—its primary supply route—have escalated. Over the weekend, Pakistan closed its border to trucks delivering supplies in response to coalition airstrikes Saturday that killed 25 Pakistani soldiers.”

Pakistan Offers Russia To Punish USA

A far more interesting article on the matter was published by The News International (Pakistan). The article is called “Analysts say Russia could deliver deathblow to Nato”. It says that “With the Russian threat to cut land routes for supply to Nato troops in Afghanistan, the Afghan battleground may turn into a cold deathtrap for Nato”.
The article also quotes Lieutenant General Hameed Gul: “Americans and Nato troops have been strangled in Afghanistan and time has come for Pakistan to avail the opportunity that it missed on 9/11 to regain the respect and sovereignty… Now Nato troops will have to exit Vietnam style, and that too by using Pakistan’s airspace because Iran will never let USA use its airspace.”

According to Maria Sultan, another Pakistani expert in defense said that a Russian-Pakistani blockade would mean a cold death for the NATO troops in Afghanistan: “They will literally be strangled in Afghanistan with 90,000 troops and as they admit that they have reserves for three months which actually means they have reserves for two months and then Nato will have to airlift the troops and during the airlift only 15 to 20 percent can be alive out of the 90,000 troops”.

Can Russia Help USA Withdraw From Afghanistan?

On Dec 1st 2011 The New York Times published an article by Dov Zakheim called “Can Russia Help Us Withdraw From Afghanistan?” The article tells us about the importance of the Russia-US relations.
The US authorities acknowledge that the USA’s tensions with Pakistan have been escalating since the elimination of Osama bin Laden in May 2011. So, the author offers a way out: “Instead of relying heavily on Pakistan as a supply corridor, the United States should expand its cooperation with Russia, which has been playing an increasingly important role in military transit to and from Afghanistan. This would serve as both a hedge and a warning to the generals who control Pakistan”.
American military experts admit that the Northern route to Afghanistan through Russia is safer, more economical and strategically important. Moreover, it could be the ideal route to withdraw the NATO troops from Afghanistan. Dov Zakheim assumes that Russia should be a strategic partner in the region.

Why Won’t Russia Join Pakistan to Block NATO in Afghanistan?

Moscow understands that Pakistan is probably going to make a cat’s paw of Russia. Americans do not want to negotiate with Pakistan. So, Russia is definitely going to benefit from it. Russia’s supply routes to Afghanistan will probably be the major reason for reloading tense Russia-US relations. This is the major trump card up Russia’s sleeve. The Kremlin is not going to get rid of it just because Islamabad wants revenge.

Russia should be interested in letting the US (and NATO) troops stay in Afghanistan as longer as possible. Firstly, they will become weaker. Secondly, they are in sight. Thirdly, they will be solving the Taliban problem for Russia. These are the reasons to help the NATO troops in Afghanistan.

While the US contingent is still in Afghanistan and Iraq, it threatens Iran and Syria. Consequently, Russia may act as a diplomat and negotiator for these countries, thus earning political dividends for itself.

Moreover, if Russia joins Pakistan it will probably spoil its ties with India, a major ally, a BRICS fellow-member and the biggest consumer of Russian exports.
And finally, If Russia does join Pakistan to block the NATO troops in Afghanistan, the US may well find another (costlier) supply route: Turkey – Georgia - Azerbaijan – Turkmenistan.

Market Leader : News :: Russian-Pakistani Blockade Of USA: Reality Or Empty Threats?

 

[rai_kamal]

Moreover, if Russia joins Pakistan it will probably spoil its ties with India, a major ally, a BRICS fellow-member and the biggest consumer of Russian exports.

Not much, as Russia and India further will combinly going to present themself in afghanistan..
Infact, its strategically important to have a support of pakistan and if russia have good relationship pakistan than India can feel relieved for its assests in afghanistan..

---------- Post added at 11:48 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:47 PM ----------

Moreover, if Russia joins Pakistan it will probably spoil its ties with India, a major ally, a BRICS fellow-member and the biggest consumer of Russian exports.

Not much, as Russia and India further will combinly going to present themself in afghanistan..
Infact, its strategically important to have a support of pakistan and if russia have good relationship pakistan than India can feel relieved for its assests in afghanistan..

 

[somebozo]

If Russia and Pakistan block NATO supplies, they will be in the same situation in Afghanistan as USSR was 10 years ago..a virtual sucide...and i am sure the Russian still want a revenge!