Developing Ties Between Pak, Russia, China, Iran & the CARS

[53fd]

The global economic superpower of China is symbolic in it's ambitious Karakoram Highway expansion project in Pakistan.

Until last year, shopkeeper Sher Afzal sold Lay's potato chips and baked goods to Western backpackers visiting this idyllic Himalayan valley. Now that rising terrorism has squelched tourism and China's economic boom has brought development, he is selling Chinese instant noodles and packets of dried meat to a very different clientele.

"With the state of affairs, there's more business with the Chinese now," he says of the interest that China, the world's second-largest economy, now takes in Pakistan.

In the past four years, thousands of Chinese workers have descended on the Hunza Valley for an ambitious repair project on the legendary Karakoram Highway. An epic feat of engineering, the 800-mile, two-lane ribbon that wraps its way in hair-raising curves through passes as high as 15,000 feet connects western China to Islamabad, Pakistan, and thence to roads leading to the deepwater port at Gwadar.

IN PICTURES: China's landmarks

The relationship is not new: The road was first built between 1959 and 1979 by the People's Liberation Army. But while Pakistan's relations with the West, particularly the United States, remain difficult, the highway – along with other major Chinese-built projects such as the port at Gwadar and Pakistan's main nuclear reactor at Chashma – is a symbol of the road ahead.

"It's part of a larger, overall infrastructure project, which is geared toward enhancing connectivity with Gwadar and the western regions of China," says Fazal Ur Rehman, director of the China Studies Center at the Institute for Strategic Studies in Islamabad.

Out where the highway bends between Gilgit and the Khunjrab border pass, gangs of workers hack at mountain walls with pickaxes and are watched over by a Pakistani security division created just for the Chinese workers. The $400 million upgrade and expansion project is expected to be completed by early 2013.

Quiz: Test your knowledge of Asia

The Chinese have made themselves popular here, largely because of the highway they built, which transformed the Hunza Valley 30 years ago, and the diligence with which they are now upgrading and expanding it.

After recent floods, says Ab*du*llah Jan, local head of the roads department, "our experts said they needed a month to complete the [repair] work." Working day and night, the Chinese finished in 10 days.

Life is tough for the Chinese surveyors, engineers, and laborers – all employees of the state-owned China Road and Bridge Corporation – who are working on the project, says manager Pong Chenhai. The views may be stunning, but they work from dawn to dusk seven days a week for as long as a year at a time, with only one week's home leave. A typical engineer earns $700 a month, about 30 percent more than what an engineer makes in China.

They live in temporary camps or in local guesthouses specially equipped with Chinese kitchens and chefs.

"The Chinese are good for business, but they mainly keep to themselves," says Abdul Qay*yum, manager of the Hun*za View Hotel. "They don't talk to the other guests, and the guests don't talk to them, mainly because of the language problem. They mainly stay in their rooms."

Bringing money and assistance, though, the Chinese are welcome here in a way the Chinese authorities hope similar work crews will be welcome across Africa and Asia, as Beijing spreads its development aid largess. China's image here as an all-weather friend, says Mr. Rehman, "should definitely have an impact on China's relations with other nations in the developing world."

The economic road ahead for China and Pakistan - Yahoo! News

 

[Omar1984]

Chinese scholar urges Pakistan, Russia to improve ties

China would welcome improvement of relationship between its two best friends, Russia & Pakistan.




A Chinese scholar and journalist said that his country “desires better relations between Pakistan and Russia”, said a press release issued by the Institute of Regional Studies here on Thursday.

“Pakistan is China’s best friend internationally and Russia is the second best; China would welcome improvement of relationship between its two best friends,” said Prof Zhou Rong, chief of South Asia bureau of the daily Guang Ming.

Speaking at a roundtable discussion at the institute, Prof Rong argued that since India had become a world sought-after country and was gravitating towards the US, the Russians would also be interested in mending fences with the Pakistanis. Prof. Rong said that Pakistan’s fears of Russia are misplaced.

He said that Russia’s reach has shrunk significantly after the break-up of the Soviet Union in 1991 and that it is now far away from Pakistan to threaten it militarily.

He emphasised the need for Pakistan to improve its relations with Russia while putting aside its misplaced fears.

Prof. Rong also said that Pakistan and China need to develop an energy and trade corridor through sea routs and also develop a train route across the Pak-China land border through Xinjiang and Gilgit-Baltistan.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 2nd, 2011



International relations: Chinese scholar urges Pakistan, Russia to improve ties – The Express Tribune

 

[Omar1984]

‘Islamabad’s fears of Moscow are misplaced’

ISLAMABAD - Prof Zhou Rong, the chief of South Asia Bureau of a Chinese daily the Guang Ming, on Thursday argued that since India had become a world sought-after country and was gravitating towards the US, the Russians would also be interested in sorting out differences with Pakistan, adding that Islamabad’s fears of Moscow were misplaced. He described Pakistan as the best friend of China and listed Russia the second best. Speaking at a roundtable discussion, organised by the Institute of Regional Studies (IRS), Zhou said China would welcome improved relationship between two of its friends but cautioned against the Pak-US ties, based on incongruent and at times divergent interests.

He said that Russia’s reach had shrunk significantly after the break-up of the Soviet Union in 1991 and it was now far away from Pakistan to threaten it militarily. He also did not think that Russia would be interested in doing that at any point in the near future. Therefore, he emphasised Pakistan should improve relations with Russia while putting aside its fears based on strayed thinking.
Zhou maintained that Pakistan was emotionally pro-China, but psychologically pro-US because of the long-standing institutional relationship it had enjoyed with the latter. He attributed the good relations between the two countries partly to the fact that many among Pakistani elite had studied or stayed in the US and still preferred sending their children there for studies.

He said though China was never bothered by Pakistan’s relationship with the US and it actually benefited from the process in developing its own ties with America.

Summarising US policy interests with respect to Pakistan, Zhou said, “The US wants to utilise, restrict and reform Pakistan.”

He elaborated that the US aimed at utilising Pakistan in the war on terror, restricting its growing religious radicalism and reform it to make it a liberal secular democracy.

He added that Pakistan could not become a secular democracy because of its strong Islamic roots while modern undercurrents in the society prevented it from turning into a theocratic state ruled by Taliban.

Zhou said Pak-China relationship was exceptional because of being instinctive, adding that the two countries needed to develop a energy and trade corridor through the sea routes that had been talked about for the past six years. He also wanted Pakistan and China to develop a train route across the Pak-China land border through Xinjiang and Gilgit-Baltistan.

He added that Pakistan would have to proactively persuading the Chinese government to initiate the rail-link between the two countries.



‘Islamabad’s fears of Moscow are misplaced’ | Pakistan Today | Latest news, Breaking news, Pakistan News, World news, business, sport and multimedia

---------- Post added at 04:02 AM ---------- Previous post was at 04:00 AM ----------

China welcomes Pak-Russia’s candid relations

Staff Report

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan is China’s best friend internationally secondly to Russia, said Professor Zhou Rong, Chief of South Asia Bureau of Guang Ming Daily of China. Speaking at a roundtable discussion organized by the Institute of Regional Studies here on Thursday, he maintained that China would welcome improvement of relationship between its two best friends.

He argued that since India had become a world sought-after country and was gravitating towards the US, the Russians would also be interested in mending fences with the Pakistanis. Prof Zhou was of the view that Pakistan’s fears of Russia were misplaced. He said that Russia’s reach has shrunk significantly after the break-up of the Soviet Union in 1991 and that it is now far away from Pakistan to threaten it militarily. Prof. Zhou maintained that Pakistan is emotionally pro-China; but that it is psychologically pro-US because of the long-standing institutional relationship it has enjoyed with the latter. He attributed the good relations between the two countries partly to the fact that many among Pakistani elite had studied or stayed in the US and still preferred sending their children to the US for studies.

He said though China is never bothered by Pakistan’s relationships with the US and that it actually benefited from them in developing its own relations with America. He elaborated that US wants to utilize Pakistan in the war against terrorism, restrict Pakistan’s growing religious radicalism, and reform Pakistan to make it a liberal secular democracy. He added that Pakistan could not become a secular democracy because of its strong Islamic roots, and that it could not become a theocracy ruled by Taliban either because of the modern undercurrents in its society. He cautioned against the Pak-US relationship being based on incongruent and at times divergent interests.

Prof. Zhou said that Pak-China relationship is exceptional because it is instinctive. He compared it to the relationship between two brothers who have to come to each other’s help instinctively He added that Pakistan would have to proactively persuade Chinese government to initiate the rail-link between the two countries. He also emphasized the need for enhanced Chinese language training for Pakistanis for the improvement of the relations.



Daily Times - Leading News Resource of Pakistan

 

[lem34]

UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES

One would have thought that Americans would have learned to be prudent about the unintended consequences of their actions by now.

After the case of Roe v. Wade which legalised abortion in America in 1973. Americans were surprised that some 15 to 20 years later that there were steep reductions in crime rates. Later studies have suggested there is a link between the two. Simply unwanted children often fatherless were more inclined to commit crime in their teens. When the learned judges made this decision to legalise abortion they could not have dreamt of the effect on crime rates.

The Pakistani ISI proved itself to be a master chef in the eighties in the way they created an unpalatable meal for the Soviets which not only led to the withdrawal of the Soviets from Afghanistan but contributed to the eventual collapse of the Soviet system,. The ingredients included in this meal were American & Saudi money,Waabbi ideology, American weapons. The Saudi American & Pakistani“friends” revelled in their success. However this “success” was short lived because in particular the Americans didn't want to get involved in washing the dishes. They were happy to provide the ingredients, assist the cook but cleaning up after dinner was below them.

Not in the wildest dreams of the Americans could they foresee the unintended consequences.

With the demise of the Soviets the world entered a unipolar world with just one superpower America. But the seeds of destruction of the American empire had been sown by the Americans themselves.
1. It is now commonly accepted that the Americans were complicit in the creation of the Taleban/Al qaeda Frankenstein[ii]. The defeat of a superpower by irregulars was clearly a lesson that Osama & co took to heart. If they could destroy the Soviets why not the Americans?
2. It was the designation of Pakistan as a frontline state in the eighties by the Americans against Soviet expansion that enabled Pakistan to avoid first sanctions and second avoid a destruction of nuclear facilities by Israel/India/America a la Saddam’s Iraq style. Simply American actions allowed Pakistan get through the most sensitive stage of developing of nuclear weapons [iii].

The attack on the twin towers by Al Qaeda was not chosen as a random target. It was specifically chosen because it was recognised as symbol of western capitalism[iv]. Osama wanted to bleed america to death. He wanted America to leave arab lands because they would no longer be able to afford to finance wars in distant lands.

America’s disproportionate response to the twin towers attack; the invasion of Iraq & Afghanistan is estimated to have cost in the region of 4 trillion US dollars [v]. No one can deny the macroeconomic [vi]effects of the attack itself.
Osama it would appear has died but it would appear Americans are being bled to death. Today America has official unemployment standing at 9.2% in reality nearer 17% [vii]. One in six in america on food stamps [viii]. America today has a unsustainable deficit of $14 trillion plus.

If the US dollar was not the reserve currency America would be bankrupt as the French finance Minister Giscard d’estaing said in the sixties the reserve currency allows America the exorbitant privilege. This is what allow Americans to undertake quantitive easing aka printing money and get away with it.

There are two countries in the world that could destroy the US dollar as reserve currency overnight that is Saudi and China. If Saudis refused to accept the US dollar for their oil or if the Chinese started dumping the dollar that would be the end. However Saudis and Chinese would not be left unscathed themselves by these actions. If US dollar was not reserve currency a gallon of petrol in America would go over $100. Americans would be unable to fuel their weapons of terror like the F16’s. Even if Saudis and China were to take no action but continue decreasing their reliance on the dollar I estimate that the tipping point for the US$ will be reached within 10 years [ix].

Has Osama in death succeeded. Will historians in future years look back and say he struck the first fatal blow at Pax America

Clearly we are rapidly approaching the end of Pax America. America is on the demise and China is on the rise. Sometime in the future China will take over the role of world leader. This is inevitable as the sun rises. Its just a question of time. In the past empires have clashed and there has always been war and misery whenever the baton is exchanged. You may well think that America and British empire exchanged the baton peacefully. But this is not the case. Only Hitler and the Germans stopped direct hostilities between the British empire. In fact in 1930 America was making preparations to attack the British[x].

The big question is can Americans accept the new world order where they and white English speaking countries will not have the edge and control world resources.
We live in a world today that is often described as a global village. To me this just means that a steady osmosis has been taking place since the early nineties. Its like mixing water with a dye. It was happening because the dye and water were in contact, but the effect of the global village is to shake the bottle and mix the dye and water quickly and completely at a quicker rate. It is inevitable that this osmosis will see a redistribution of wealth and resources. The richer Americans will get poorer, the poorer Chinese will become richer etc. It is unlikely that the average Chinese will be as rich as the average American today. But the Chinese will be better off and the American worse off. The Americans or Europeans will will face greater difficult in adjusting as they are not used to hardship.

The west and or Americans use notions of democracy and human rights to try to gain the moral high ground which in reality is just an anaesthetic to soothe the collective conceience of the remnants' of the population of the Judeo Christian empire. When the writer refers to a country the reference is to the relevant countries government. The writer feels the necessity to say this because although America prides itself in that it is a democracy its foreign policy is dictated by a displined small number of American Jews (hense the demonising of Pakistan the only moslem country with nukes) with the majority of American people living in the ignorance fed on a daily diet of propaganda from the likes of Fox news. In the UK 75% of the electorate chose not to vote or vote against the present incumbent. Yet the govt can and does lead the UK into war. It is asserted that if such a thing as democracy existed wars would not exist. People do not choose to go to war. Governments decide to go to war. It is submitted the western notions of fairness and human rights are just a cloak for their nefarious designs.

Its with this background that we have to see American actions in the rest of the world including Iraq Afghanistan and Libya. It would seem that Syria Pakistan and Iran could soon be recipients of the American way of life in the near future. If Americans were to succeed in having their way in Afghanistan and Pakistan it would seriously threaten China bearing in mind that India is already friendly towards America. It would be a serious setback to Chinese in that supply routes could be closed by America at will.

China & Russia are probably the only two militaries that can afford to take America on and make Americans think twice. I say this because China & Russia are the only two countries that can threaten the American mainland with nuclear weapons.

I am not suggesting that they would necessarily win against America but they could certainly cause Americans unacceptable damage.

One can not help notice that when Russia took action against Georgia who Americans and Nato were making friendly overtures to Americans and Nato did little to help Georgia who they had earlier encouraged to be boisterous towards Russia. The American therefore can be pragmatic when pushed and their bluff is called.

American sabre rattling on Iran is not being ignored by Russia & China. Both have prevented Iran from being completely isolated. The Chinese and Russians were not happy with what happened in Libya and are unlikely to be conned again. The movement towards Syria by Russian assets and the refusal by Russians to accept missiles near their borders must not be ignored as the wishfull dreams of power by a former superpower.

With Putin about to be re-elected in Russia makes the way for a more assertive Russia when it comes to America. The only time there seemed that coordination was lacking between Medev and Putin was on the Libyan action and it was clear that Putin thought Nato’s actions were unacceptable and likened Natos actions to the Crusaders [xi].
I believe that the Chinese & Russians are keeping a close eye on what is happening and may coordinate their actions to prevent this

The danger is that Americans and Europe are in financial crisis and may need to get more adventurous in their search for stealing third world resources and influence and may use force. Will they risk the ire of China and or Russia? They will not in my opinion accept a new order that is not dominated by American, European and white English speaking countries? Could they? Will they risk WW3 with nukes?

Many will see a war hot or cold unlikely, because why should China or Russia risk their own assets for Pakistan, Iran etc? Could China not just keep rising without a war? My take is that the west can see what is going to happen ie if they dont take some sort of action they will no longer lead the world. If they keep managing to get away with their adventures in due course China & Russia will be targets.
.
Lawrence Freeman from the Executive Intelligence Review magazine [xii]has stated that

“President Obama is acting on a British geopolitical plan to force a confrontation with Russia and China, a military confrontation of which Syrian and Iran would nearly be the ignition point. But the real goal is a war to stop the progress that Russia and China are engulfed in” .

I think in the face of this alliance Russia has a key part to play and America when it realises its losing may try bribing Russia. After all the Russians are white at least.

Will Russia & China have the foresight to prevent American and Nato from stealing and controlling the world resources before its too late?



________________________________________
JJ Donohue, Steven levitt
[ii]http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/1999/jan/17/yemen.islam
[iii]http://www.npolicy.org/userfiles/image/Could%20Anything%20Be%20Done%20to%20Stop%20Them.pdf
[iv]How-safe-should-we-feel-about-the-terrorist-threat
[v]http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/war-on-terror-set-to-surpass-cost-of-second-world-war-2304497.html
[vi]http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/statistics/publications/ois_wp_impacts_911.pdf
[vii]http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/learn-how-to-invest/The-real-unemployment-rate.aspx
[viii]http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-3445_162-57328305/americas-new-poor/
[ix]http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/the-demise-of-the-dollar-1798175.html
[x]http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2039453/How-America-planned-destroy-BRITAIN-1930-bombing-raids-chemical-weapons.html
[xi] Video: Putin likens Libya air strikes to 'crusades' - Telegraph
[xii]http://rt.com/news/syria-iran-russia-china-921/

 

[hawx]

The Pakistani ISI proved itself to be a master chef in the eighties in the way they created an unpalatable meal for the Soviets which not only led to the withdrawal of the Soviets from Afghanistan but contributed to the eventual collapse of the Soviet system

come out of this delusion and your ISI is still harboring them its surely will have unintended consequence on pakistan in near future and it will not be good.

 

[fd24]

come out of this delusion and your ISI is still harboring them its surely will have unintended consequence on pakistan in near future and it will not be good.

enlighten with us with your wisdom. How will it not be good for Pakistan? Lets here your expert analysis on the events. On a financial level USA are close to financial meltdown and this is the reality.

 

[lem34]

where is the link to this article? who was the crackpot who wrote it - they start with the assumption that abortion means less crime. what is wrong with you people to not even be slightly smarter than a peanut, that you give credence to an author who starts w/ this kind of ignorance? wait is this rupee news article ,heh.

Actually Jayatl there is some scientific support:QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS

http://pricetheory.uchicago.edu/levitt/Papers/DonohueLevittTheImpactOfLegalized2001.pdf

And I had put a footnote to the guys who carried out the research. Oh btw I wrote it so no link required

Let me join the dots for you. Before abortion was legalised in America the only women who could afford to have abortion generally were rich and white as they had to pay dodgy doctors to do it. Wheras poor and often blacks couldnt afford illegal abortions. These children often without fathers without role models often unwanted would grow up on the streets and resort to crime etc

 

[fd24]

where is the link to this article? who was the crackpot who wrote it - they start with the assumption that abortion means less crime. what is wrong with you people to not even be slightly smarter than a peanut, that you give credence to an author who starts w/ this kind of ignorance? wait is this rupee news article ,heh.

Hello JayAtl - Come on young man. Lets add something on topic and dont derail the thread. Say something on topic mate. Some interesting points raised. Question is how will China and Russia envisage stopping the continuation of the systematic bulling by the west. Lets hope its peaceful

 

[lem34]

Bit of a long article but well worth a read to understand where we fit in. Try at least to read the bit in red cos I think thats what is most likely to happen. Would be interested if others on the forum agree with me. If it was to come about America certainly wouldnt be happy and india probably not. Also shows how important we are to russia and china

Playing chess in Eurasia
By Pepe Escobar

Bets are off on which is the great story of 2011. Is it the Arab Spring(s)? Is it the Arab counter-revolution, unleashed by the House of Saud? Is it the "birth pangs" of the Greater Middle East remixed as serial regime changes? Is it R2P ("responsibility to protect") legitimizing "humanitarian" bombing? Is it the freeze out of the "reset" between the US and Russia? Is it the death of al-Qaeda? Is it the euro disaster? Is it the US announcing a Pacific century cum New Cold War against China? Is it the build up towards an attack on Iran? (well, this one started with Dubya, Dick and Rummy ages ago ...)

Underneath all these interlinked plots - and the accompanying hysteria of Cold War-style headlines - there's a never-ending thriller floating downstream: Pipelineistan. That's the chessboard

Dilbert
where the half-hidden twin of the Pentagon's "long war" is played out. Virtually all current geopolitical developments are energy-related. So fasten your seat belts, it's time to revisit Dr Zbigniew Brzezinski's "grand chessboard" in Eurasia to find out who's winning the Pipelineistan wars.

Got tickets to the opera?
Let's start with Nabucco (the gas opera). Nabucco is above all a key, strategic Western powerplay; how to deliver Caspian Sea gas to Europe. Energy execs call it "opening the Southern Corridor" (of gas). The problem is this Open Sesame will only deliver if supplied by a tsunami of gas from two key "stans" - Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan.

The 3,900-kilometer Nabucco will hit five transit countries - Austria, Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Turkey - and it may end costing a staggering 26 billion euros (US$33.7 billion) [1].

Construction - endlessly delayed - might start by 2013. Essentially, everything is still a bloody mess. Nobody knows about prices, or the details of transit rights. Turkey is also eager to resell the gas on its own. Moreover, if Baku and Ankara decide to develop in tandem the Shah Deniz phase II [2] fields in Azerbaijan to feed the pipeline, they will need an extra $20 billion in investment.

Turkmenistan's president, the spectacularly named Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, sticks to his trademark wobbly script (Check him out singing his original hit "For You, My White Flower" ). He always says the European Union's myriad proposals "would be studied" and cooperation with the Europeans is "a strategic priority" of his foreign policy. But the EU's Holy Grail - an ironclad agreement to get the gas - is ever more elusive. The Russians and even the Azeris bet this will never happen.

Our man Gurbanguly, savvy operator that he is, would prefer to hatch his eggs in a Chinese basket - rather than in those far-away euro-messy lands. That's why he wobbles - feigning he's open to any offer. He knows better than anybody that for the Europeans Nabucco is the key to be released (a bit) from the grip of Russia's Gazprom. At the same time he keeps in mind how to maximize his Chinese profits while not antagonizing Russia.

Every European bureaucracy (not) worth its name is behind Nabucco [3], and most of all an eager European Commission (EC), the EU's fat salary-infested executive branch. The EC's do-or-die strategic priority is to link the Turkmen port of Turkmenbashi to the Absheron Peninsula in Azerbaijan via a Trans-Caspian Gas pipeline (TCGP) [4]. It's a breeze; I did the trip on a vodka-infested Azeri cargo ship and it took me only 12 hours.

But how to pull it off? Moscow locked up all Azeri gas. Gazprom locked up all the surplus gas from Turkmenistan. The only option would be Iran. Now tell that to the US Senate - who has declared economic war [5] against Iran.

Let's go TAPI!
A detour to AfPak is in order. Not even the deities who lord over the Hindu Kush know if the $7.6 billion (and counting), 1,735-kilometer TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) pipeline will ever be built.

For Turkmenistan's Oil and Gas Minister Bayramgeldy Nedirov, "There are no doubts that this [TAPI] project will be realized." [6] Pakistan and India - after infinite haggling - have finally agreed on pricing. Roughly a third of the pipeline's cost will be financed by the Philippines-based Asian Development Bank - since both Afghanistan and Pakistan are essentially broke.

Imagine a steel serpent entering western Afghanistan towards Herat, going south underground (to prevent terrorist bombing) parallel to the Herat-Kandahar road, then taking a detour via Quetta - home of Taliban supremo Mullah Omar - to Multan in Pakistan and finally reaching Fazilka, on the Indian border.

To quote Sam Spade in The Maltese Falcon, "This is the stuff dreams are made of," since the Bill Clinton administration, way before 9/11 and the now virtually extinct GWOT ("global war on terror"). Cynics may read this as gas republic Turkmenistan - holder of the fourth-largest reserves in the world - doing better to promote economic development and security in Afghanistan than 100,000 US troops.

The gas for TAPI will come from the new South Yolotan-Osman field - which already supplies China (according to British auditor Gaffney, Cline & Associates this is the world's second-largest [7] gas field, after South Pars in Iran). Our man Gurbanguly, by the way, issued a decree changing the gas field's name to Galkynys - Turkmen for "Renaissance"; after all, Gurbanguly's reign has been baptized as "The Epoch of New Renaissance and Great Transformations". These "transformations" have nothing to do with the Arab Spring(s).

Here we find yet another clever gambit by our man Gurbanguly. He keeps an open door to Nabucco by freeing the gas from Dauletabad field in southeast Turkmenistan to flow via a domestic pipeline to the Caspian, and then to the oh so elusive TCGP. Even the (delicious) sturgeons in the Caspian know that without a TCGP, Nabucco is DOA.

At least for a year now our man Gurbanguly has been telling every diplomat and top oil exec in sight that he rejects Russia's interference over Turkmenistan's gas strategy. [8] But apparently he didn't inform the Russians.

Russian President Dmitri Medvedev did visit Ashgabat - the Las Vegas of Central Asia - to talk business [9]. And then, in a daring plot twist, suddenly Gazprom proclaimed its love of TAPI! Just imagine; the Americans have been dreaming of TAPI since 1996, just for rival Gazprom to barge in at overtime. No one knew what Medvedev offered to Gurbanguly so he wouldn't keep entertaining fancy Louis Vuitton ideas. Perhaps nothing. We'll come to that in a minute.

Ask the babushkas
TAPI's direct competition is IPI - the Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline (India, pressured by the US, has virtually dropped out; China is ready to pounce and turn it into IPC). Well, who else but Gazprom now wants to get into the IP groove as well [10], alongside China's CNPC? The Iranian stretch of the pipeline is virtually ready. The Pakistani stretch begins in early 2012. Still another Russian chess move - and Washington never saw it coming.

Even a wooden babushka knows what Moscow does not want; the Afghan chapter of the US Empire of Bases never going away. Then there's regime change in Syria (with the implicit end of the Russian Black Sea fleet using the port of Tartus). The North Atlantic Treaty Organization's (NATO's) advances in the Black Sea. The ever-expanding (at least rhetorically) US missile defense and the US's "New Silk Road" gambit to re-penetrate Central Asia [11].

It was Russia that authorized the Northern Distribution Network (NDN) to supply US and NATO troops in Afghanistan [12], an endless trek across Eurasia, including Uzbekistan - whose ghastly dictatorship US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton praised for its political "progress" - and Tajikistan. Pushing Moscow too far is not exactly a winning strategy.

Moscow also sees how Washington has antagonized virtually everyone in Pakistan - with the non-stop "war of the drones", the non-stop violations of territorial sovereignty, the non-stop threats to barge in and "take over your nuclear arsenal". Washington's priority is for Islamabad to attack the Pakistani Taliban in Balochistan and thus be dragged into a civil war against not only Pashtuns but also Balochis. As Moscow - and Beijing - survey the battlefield, all they have to do is bide their time while sipping green tea.

When former reds see red
The Russian-Chinese entente is not always a Bolshoi dance.

Russia wants to sell gas to China for $400 per 1,000 cubic meters (cm), the same price it charges Europe. The wily Turkmen charge the Chinese only $250. Beijing already spent $4 billion in South Yolotan (and counting); they want all the gas they can get to supply the hugely successful Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan-China pipeline (which they built), online for two years now [13]. Beijing is insatiable; oil major CNPC wants to import no less than 500% more gas from Central Asia by 2015 [14].

What this means is that for China the potentially $1 trillion-worth, 30-year gas deal with Russia may not be as imperative [15]. Gazprom's strategy boils down to two pipelines from Siberia to China. For Russia, this is absolutely essential in terms of making money out of Siberia. Geopolitical ramifications are immense. A close Russia-China steel umbilical cord may be interpreted in Europe - a virtual hostage of Gazprom - as perhaps a signal that they need Iran more than ever. At the same time Russia remains extremely uncomfortable with China's energy onslaught all across Central Asia.

This is Beijing's take, in a nutshell. We won't pay European prices for Turkmen gas. And we don't want a TCGP to Europe. China, Russia, even Iran, no one outside NATO wants the TCGP [16].

So this is how it breaks down. The Turkmen may sell gas to

Dilbert
China and Iran. They may even sell gas to South Asia via TAPI (after all Gazprom has joined the party). But forget about selling gas to Europe - where Gazprom rules. No one knows whether our man Gurbanguly got the message.

All hail the gas Czar
Any way you look at it, there's this inescapable feeling the Czar of Pipelineistan is Vladimir Putin (and just like the Terminator, he will be back, next March, as president, whatever his current predicament). After all, Russia produces more oil than Saudi Arabia (at least until 2015 [17]) and has the world's largest known reserves of natural gas. Around 40% of all Russian state funds come from oil and gas.

Putin's plan is deceptively simple; Gazprom "takes over" Western Europe and thus neutralizes the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

Exhibit 1 is the Nord Stream, a $12 billion, twin 1224-km pipeline, respecting extraordinary complex environmental guidelines, launched last September. That's gas from Siberia delivered under the Baltic Sea, bypassing problematic Ukraine, straight to Germany, Britain, the Netherlands, France, Belgium, Denmark and the Czech republic (10% of the entire EU annual gas consumption, or one third of China's entire current gas consumption). Former German chancellor Gerhard Schroeder heads the Nord Stream consortium.

Exhibit 2 is the South Stream (the shareholder agreement is already signed between Russia, Germany, France and Italy). That's Russian gas delivered under the Black Sea to the southern part of the EU, through Bulgaria, Serbia, Hungary and Slovakia. Instrumental in the deal was the quality time Putin spent with his close pal, former Italian prime minister Silvio "bunga bunga" Berlusconi.

Nord Stream drove Washington nuts. Not only it redesigned Europe's energy configuration; it forged an unbreakable German-Russian strategic link. Putin, better than anyone, knows how pipelines hardwire governments. South Stream is driving Washington nuts because it beats Nabucco hands down, and it's way cheaper. Talk about a geopolitical - and geoeconomic - battle.

Washington - alarmed at what the Germans deliciously dubbed the "modernization partnership" with Russia - is left to promote European "resistance" to Gazprom's onslaught, as if Germany was Zucotti Park and Russia was the NYPD. Again here's Pipelineistan infused with political reverberations. For instance, Germany and Italy are totally against NATO expansion. The reason? Nord and South Stream. The formidable German export machine is fueled by Russian energy; the motto might be "Put a Gazprom in my Audi".

As William Engdahl, author of the seminal A Century of War: Anglo-American Oil Politics in the New World Order, has observed, the "Nord Stream and South Stream are poised to leap out of the world of energy security and choreograph an altogether new power dynamic in the heart of Europe." [18]

Putin's roadmap is his paper, "A new integration project for Eurasia: The future in the making", published by Izvestia in early October [19]. It may be dismissed as megalomania, but it may also be read as an ippon - Putin loves judo - against NATO, the International Monetary Fund and neo-liberalism.

True, President Nursultan Nazarbayev of "snow leopard" Kazakhstan was already talking about a Eurasian Union way back in 1994. Putin, though, makes it clear this wouldn't be Back In The USSR territory, but a "modern economic and currency union" stretching all across Central Asia.

For Putin, Syria is just a detail; the real thing is Eurasian integration. No wonder Atlanticists started freaking out with this suggestion of "a powerful supranational union that can become one of the poles of today's world while being an efficient connecting link between Europe and the dynamic Asia-Pacific Region". Compare it with US President Barack Obama and Hillary's Pacific doctrine [20].

You integrate when I say so
Everything is up for grabs at the crucial intersection of hardcore geopolitics and Pipelineistan. Washington's New Silk Road dream is not exactly a success. [21]

Moscow, for its part, now wants Pakistan to be a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) [22]. That also applies to China in relation to Iran. Imagine Russia, China, Pakistan and Iran coordinating their mutual security inside a strengthened SCO, whose motto is "non-alignment, non-confrontation and non-interference in the affairs of other countries". R2P it ain't.

Snags abound. For China the SCO is above all about economics and trade [23]. For Russia it's above all a security bloc [24], which must absolutely find a regional solution to Afghanistan that keeps the Taliban under control and at the same time gets rid of the Afghan chapter of the US Empire of Bases.

As Pipelineistan goes, with Russia, Central Asia and Iran controlling 50% of world's gas reserves, and with Iran and Pakistan as virtual SCO members, the name of the game becomes Asian integration - if not Eurasian. China and Russia now coordinate foreign policy in extreme detail. The trick is to connect China and Central Asia with South Asia and the Gulf - with the SCO developing as an economic/security powerhouse. In parallel, Pipelineistan may accelerate the full integration of the SCO as a counterpunch to NATO.

In realpolitik terms, that makes much more sense than a New Silk Road invented in Washington. But tell that to the Pentagon, or to a possible bomb Iran, scare China, neo-con-remote-controlled next president of the United States.


Notes
1. Hungary sees Nabucco costs quadrupling, may sue French firm, Reuters, Oct 24, 2011.
2. Shah Deniz II Natural Gas Field: What Will Azerbaijan's Decision Be? ITGI, Nabucco or TAP?, Turkish Weekly, 18 August 2011.
3. EU banks throw their weight behind Nabucco pipeline, EU Observer, September 2010.
4. Trans-Caspian pipeline vital to Nabucco, Petroleum Economist, October 2011.
5. U.S. Senate Passes Iran Oil Sanctions as EU Blacklist Grows, Bloomberg, December 5, 2011.
6. ‘Gas pipeline deal for Pakistan, India imminent’ , The Express Tribune, November 5, 2011.
7. Second Gas Congress of Turkmenistan, Open Central Asia, June 5 2011.
8. Gazprom Disbelief Draws Turkmen Ire , Moscow Times, 22 November 2011.
9. Russia, Turkmenistan focus on energy cooperation, Caspian problems, innovation BSR Russia, 24 October 2010.
10. Russian gas giant may fund 780-km pipeline, Pakistan Observer, August 22, 2011.
11. The United States' "New Silk Road" Strategy: What is it? Where is it Headed?, US State Dept, September 29, 2011.
12. US Now Relies On Alternate Afghan Supply Routes, NPR, September 16, 2011.
13. China plays Pipelineistan, Asia Times Online, Dec 24, 2009.
14. Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline’s Capacity To Nearly Double, Oil and Gas Eurasia, August 29, 2011.
15. Russia, China closer to gas deal says Putin, RIA NOVOSTI, October 11.
16. China Plans To Buy All Turkmenistan's Gas To Scuttle Sales To Europe..., Geofinancial, November 24, 2011.
17. Saudi Arabia to overtake Russia as top oil producer-IEA , Reuters, Nov 9, 2011.
18. http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=27653 , Global Research, November 14, 2011.
19. Izvestia publishes an article by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin on cooperation and interaction in the post-Soviet space.
20. China and the US: The roadmaps , Al-Jazeera, 31 Oct 2011.
21. US's post-2014 Afghan agenda falters , Asia Times Online, Nov 4, 2011.
22. Russia endorses full SCO membership for Pakistan Dawn, November 7, 2011.
23. SCO member states vow to strengthen economic cooperation , Xinhua, Nov. 7, 2011.
24.Russia, China don’t see US in SCO , Voice of Russia, Nov 1, 2011.

Pepe Escobar is the author of Globalistan: How the Globalized World is Dissolving into Liquid War (Nimble Books, 2007) and Red Zone Blues: a snapshot of Baghdad during the surge. His new book, just out, is Obama does Globalistan (Nimble Books, 2009).

 

[Devil Soul]

Chinese delegation expected over weekend
By Kamran Yousaf
Published: December 22, 2011

ISLAMABAD:
The expected arrival of Chinese State Councilor Dai Bingguo in Islamabad is being closely watched as a potentially significant development in the backdrop of deteriorating relations between Pakistan and the United States.

Veteran Chinese diplomat Dai Bingguo, regarded as one of the highest-ranking figures of Chinese foreign policy in the Hu Jintao administration, is due to arrive over the weekend along with senior Chinese military officials on a three-day trip to discuss a host of regional issues with the top civilian and military leadership in Pakistan, including President Asif Ali Zardari, Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani, Army Chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani and Director General Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Lt General Ahmed Shuja Pasha.

The visit will come amid deepening economic and diplomatic ties between China and Pakistan while US-Pakistan relations continue to suffer after last month’s Nato strikes in Mohmand Agency. The high-powered delegation’s visit also coincides with the December 23 conclusion of US investigations into the cross-border strike. The attack on Pakistani outposts killed 24 Pakistani soldiers and led to a nosedive in relations between the disenchanted allies.

At the recently-held envoys’ conference, which was convened to identify and review ties with the United States that needed to be redefined, Pakistan’s Ambassador to China Masood Khan conveyed to the government that Beijing had extended its full support to the steps taken by Islamabad in response to the Nato raid, according to an official source.

“The Chinese government has fully backed all our steps,” Ambassador Masood was quoted as telling the envoys’ conference. There is also chatter in diplomatic circles in Islamabad that improved ties with China will help reduce Pakistan’s reliance on the US.

Pakistan’s “all-weather friendship” with China has continued to see positive developments as ties with the US have remained fragile over the past year. Joint Sino-Pakistani military exercises, named YOUVI (Friendship), in November also highlighted the growing relations between the two countries. President Zardari has visited China eight times in the last three years, apart from Prime Minister Gilani’s four visits. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao also paid a visit to Pakistan last year.
Published in The Express Tribune, December 22nd, 2011.

 

[oct605032048]

Mr. Dai is the state councilor (or vise PM) who is in charge of the foreign affairs of the country.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Dai Bingguo heading for Islamabad


Francis Fukuyama wrote a sequel to his celebrated book The End of History and the Last Man (1992) no sooner than he realised that he was hopelessly wrong in his prediction that the global triumph of political and economic liberalism was at hand. He wrote: “What we may be witnessing is not just the end of the Cold War, or the crossing of a particular period of postwar history, but the end of history as such… That is, the end point of mankind’s ideological evolution and the universalization of Western democracy as the final form of human government.” But in no time he realised his rush to judgment and he retracted with another book.

However, unlike the celebrated American neocon thinker, Indian foreign policy thinkers who were heavily influenced by his 1992 thesis are yet to retract. The Indian discourses through the 1990s drew heavily from Fukuyama to throw overboard the scope for reinventing or reinterpreting ‘non-alignment’ in the post-Cold War setting and came to a rapid judgment that Russia belonged to the dustbin of history. Our discourses never really got updated despite Fukumaya’s own retraction.

Indeed, western commentators also fuelled the consequent sense of insecurity in Delhi through the 1990s by endorsing that India would never have a ‘Russia option’ again and Boris Yeltsin’s Russia itself was inexorably becoming an ‘ally’ of the west — and, therefore, what alternative is there for India but to take to the New American Century project? Remember the drama of the Bill Clinton administration arm-twisting Yeltsin not to give to India the cryogentic engines?

In sum, India got entrapped in a ‘unipolar predicament’. The best elucidation of this self-invited predicament has been the masterly work titled Crossing the Rubicon by Raja Mohan, which was of course widely acclaimed in the US. While releasing the book at a function in Delhi, the then National Security Advisor Brajesh Mishra even admitted that India’s main foreign policy challenge was somehow to engage the US’s “attention”.

Russia, of course, went on to prove our pundits completely wrong. Russia remerged as a global player and the evidence of it is today spread (and is poised to expand) all across global theatres — Libya, Syria, Iran, Central Asia, Afghanistan, etc.
Why I am underscoring all this is that I am strongly reminded of that sad chapter in the recent history of India’s foreign policy when I see the huge ‘psywar’ being let loose on Pakistan currently when that country too is at a crossroads with regard to its future policy directions in a highly volatile external enviornment.

In Pakistan’s case, the ‘psywar’ substitutes Russia with China. The US’s ‘Track II’ thesis is that China is hopelessly marooned in its own malaise so much so that it has no time, interest or resources to come to Pakistan’s aid, the two countries’ ‘all-weather friendship’ notwithstanding. Let me cull out two fine pieces of this ongoing ‘psywar’.

One is the lengthy article featured by America’s prestigious flag-carrier Foreign Affairs magazine in early December titled “China’s Pakistan conundrum”. Its argument is: ‘China will not simply bail out Pakistan with loans, investment, and aid, as those watching the deterioration of US-Pakistani relations seem to expect. China will pursue politics, security, and geopolitical advantage regardless of Islamabad’s preferences’. It puts forth the invidious argument that China’s real use for Pakistan is only to “box out New Delhi in Afghanistan and the broader region.”

Alongside the argument is the highly-tendentious vector that is beyond easy verification, namely, that US and China are increasingly ‘coordinating’ their policies toward Pakistan. Diplomacy is part dissimulation and we simply don’t know whether the US and China are even anywhere near beginning to ‘coordinate’ about ‘coordinating’ their regional policies in South Asia, especially with regard to Pakistan (and Afghanistan). The odds are that while the US and China may have some limited convergent interests, conceivably, their strategic interests are most certainly in sharp conflict.

A milder version of this frontal attack by US pundits on Pakistan’s existential dilemma appears in Michael Krepon’s article last week titled ‘Pakistan’s Patrons’, which, curiously, counsels Islamabad to follow India’s foreign-policy footsteps and make up with the US. Krepon literally suggests that the Pakistanis are living in a fool’s paradise.

The obvious thrust of this ‘psywar’ — strikingly similar to what India was subjected to in the 1990s — is that Pakistan has no option but to fall in line with the US regional strategies, as it has no real ‘China option’. The main difference between India and Pakistan is that the foreign policy elites in Islamabad — unlike their Indian counterparts — are not inclined to buy into the US argument with a willing suspension of disbelief. In a way, the Sino-Pakistan relationship is proving once again to be resilient. Pakistan is in no mood to get into a ‘unipolar predicament’, as the Indian elites willingly did in the 1990s.

Thus, the visit by the Chinese delegation led by State Councilor, Dai Bingguo to Islamabad at this point in time assumes much significance. Dai is one of the highest-ranking figures in the Chinese foreign-policy establishment and the fact he is leading a delegation that includes of senior Chinese military officials is very significant. Dai is scheduled to meet not only Pakistan’s political leadership at the highest level but also army chief Ashfaq Kayani and ISI head Ahmed Shuja Pasha.

Obviously, Beijing is making a big point through the timing of this visit as well, which, incidentally, is taking place at a time of great uncertainties in Pakistan’s internal affairs. When it comes to relations with China, it must be assumed that Pakistan’s civil and military leaderships are together.

Dai doesn’t really have a US counterpart as he is ranked above the FM. Arguably, it would be secretary of state Hillary Clinton. If so, to what extent Dai ‘coordinated’ his proposed visit with Clinton will be of particular interest. The future of the US’s ‘psywar’ on Pakistan is at stake.

The big question is whether this would be Dai’s last major trip to South Asia, as he is a key member of President Hu Jintao’s team and China is moving into a period of transition at the leadership level. Dai’s visit to Delhi for the Special Representatives meet was called off at the last minute.
Posted in Diplomacy, Politics.

Tagged with China-Pakistan, US-China, US-India, US-Pakistan, US-Russia.

By M K Bhadrakumar – December 23, 2011

Dai Bingguo heading for Islamabad - Indian Punchline

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

It’s time to look beyond Afghan war

This may sound strange but frankly, the first time I travelled to the Amu Darya region of northern Afghanistan was on foot. 18 years ago, when we didn’t have an embassy in Kabul and Pakistan wouldn’t permit me anyway to walk across the Khyber Pass.

I was ‘trekking’ to meet up with Rashid Dostum in his famous castle in Shibirghan (Jowzjan province) - via Tashkent to Termez on the Uzbek-Afghan border and into Afghanistan. For an Indian diplomat, it was an altogether unusual situation, having to walk across the Termez-Heiraton bridge across the Amu Darya (’no-man’s land&#8217 and cross into the Mujahideen-ruled Afghanistan with which India claimed ‘civilizational’ ties.

The sturdy bridge fenced by steel girders was built by the Soviets and it was actually a rail track that ended in the Afghan ‘port’ of Heiraton. Termez, of course, was a massive military base, which was the biggest in Soviet Central Asia and it coordinated the dispatch of supplies for the Soviet troops in Afghanistan. By the way, General Boris Gromov walked across the same bridge on a wind-swept winter morning as he personally led the last Soviet detachment out of Afghanistan in 1989. Thus, Afghanistan, technically speaking, is not entirely new to the fascinating world of the railways. Nonetheless, the opening of the railway connecting Heiraton with Mazar-i-Sharif is invariably suffused with certain poignancy.

The railway system promises to open up a new world to the Afghan people. As for that, it is the same anywhere, including for British India. The arrival of the railway system makes the stuff of legends. My wife’s ancestral home is full of memorabilia of the construction of the Bengal-Nagpur railway ['BNR'] — India’s equivalent of the 75-kilometre long Heiraton-Mazar-i-Sharif line — which was an incredible engineering feat at that time in very tough conditions, built in the early part of the last century by a carefully chosen team of British engineers deputed specially from London that included her grandfather, who, incidentally, went on to become the first chief engineer of the Indian railways in the British times. The folklore lingers on for generations, as any ‘railway family’ would testify.

Imagine an Afghan from Bamyan first taking a train journey with his wives and his pack of little sons and daughters; it could be as unspeakable an ecstasy as when he first glimpses the sea licking the shores with its waves. But the geopolitics of the Afghan railway system is going to be no less spell-bounding. Most observers are viewing the new line in Mazar-i-Sharif as a cog in the wheel of the Afghan war, which would facilitate quicker and cheaper transportation of the supplies for the NATO troops via Termez.

But behind that is unfolding a panorama that will change the face of Afghanistan phenomenally. I am speaking about the plans being worked out for an entire regional rail grid in which Afghanistan can act as the hub. Mainly, it is going to be the railway system that China is planning through Afghanistan that is destined to change the scope of the great game in the region over the Silk Road. The proposed line, which is already under construction in segments, originates from Xinjiang and enters Afghanistan via Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and can thereupon have two branch lines, leading to Iran and Pakistan respectively.

For China, the rail line opens a strategic link with the Persian Gulf and South Asia, bypassing Malacca Straits. If Pakistan plays its card carefully — and I can see that finally Pakistan is able to grasp the quintessence of the great game and is getting its act together — it will have a key role to play in China’s hugely ambitious plans of developing the Silk Road toward the ports of Karachi and Gwadar. By the way, the presidents of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan who met in Moscow early this week exchanged notes on how to expedite the proposed railway line connecting China with Afghanistan.

The picture that emerges is that the region has begun looking beyond the Afghan war. Where does that leave India? A big question, indeed. We just had our famous ‘trialteral’ with US and Japan. But, will it help us in our region?

Instead of Pax Americana, the prospects are brightening actually for a regional concord between Russia, China, Pakistan and Iran as the underpinning of stability and security for Afghanistan. It really requires a ‘leap of faith’ for Indian pundits to grasp this geopolitical reality as it is unfolding slowly but inexorably. Thus, India’s neighboring countries such as Sri Lanka or Bangladesh are gearing up for a ‘new ball game’, as it were — and, Sri Lanka is already getting close to being one of Asia’s middle income countries.
Posted in Diplomacy, Politics.

Tagged with Silk Road.

By M K Bhadrakumar – December 22, 2011


It’s time to look beyond Afghan war - Indian Punchline

 

[lem34]

I have a lot of time for M K Bhadrakumar's analysis. Normally very spot on about region. Why dont indians use him more in govt think tanks?

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

I have to say, for a former Indian Ambassador, Bhadrakumar is one of my favorite reads.

His commentary on Pakistan is rather refreshing in that it is not tinted with some of the more obvious prejudice and bias that one sees distorting opinion coming from our neighbor to the East, and for that matter the distorted and simplistic commentary one sees from Western and liberal Pakistani commentators - see for example the 'Pakistan on steroids' article by another former Indian Ambassador.

Bhadrakumar dispenses with all the inane rhetoric and simplistic categorizations about 'good vs evil, Islamic terrorist state' etc., and analyzes Pakistan's policies and goals as 'A state pursuing it national and security interests', as should be done.