Demographics of China (demographic time bomb)

[Get Ya Wig Split]

The UN forecasts that China's population will decline from 1.426 billion this year to 1.313 billion by 2050 and below 800 million by 2100.

 

[retaxis]

Lol China government had 1 child policy for 40 years now they remove 1 child policy and things will rebound very fast.

talking about 2100 with china 1 child policy is retarded why not talk about 3100?

Meanwhile white people won't even exist in America by 2100. Whites will be minority in 2045, insignificant minority by 2065 and almost extinct by 2100 lol and that can't change no matter what.

 

[DabbuSardar]

They will soon become another russia without reaching the quality of life russians had, young chinese are making themselves infertile doing tang ping and choosing sissy lifestyle, net immigration is out of china, because well, who doesnt like the life and comforts in the west, nobody like to immigrate to china because well, who likes to live in a concrete factory building making iphones for rest of their young lives.

The gifts from Mao and communism keep on giving.

 

[Dalit]

Indians and Americans... Don't take them seriously when they speak in sync.

Lol China government had 1 child policy for 40 years now they remove 1 child policy and things will rebound very fast.

talking about 2100 with china 1 child policy is retarded why not talk about 3100?

Meanwhile white people won't even exist in America by 2100. Whites will be minority in 2045, insignificant minority by 2065 and almost extinct by 2100 lol and that can't change no matter what.

Americans claim that they are a minority and "Moslems" are taking over.

 

[Get Ya Wig Split]

Indians and Americans... Don't take them seriously when they speak in sync.



Americans claim that they are a minority and "Moslems" are taking over.

Stick to the topic punk

 

[retaxis]

Indians and Americans... Don't take them seriously when they speak in sync.



Americans claim that they are a minority and "Moslems" are taking over.

Lol typical americans always hiding information like 1 child policy and their own demographic collapse which is inevitable.

Acting like the removal of 1 child policy is not going to change demographics is brain dead retarded

Acting like white americans aren't going to be breeded out by immigrants, hispanics and blacks in the next 20yrs+ is also similarly retarded.

Americans are desperate and just want to delude themselves. The worse America becomes, the more delusional the population becomes..

 

[Mista]

The UN forecasts that China's population will decline from 1.426 billion this year to 1.313 billion by 2050 and below 800 million by 2100.

The UN is too optimistic. The UN previously predicted that China's population will start falling in 2031-32, but it already started falling in 2022.

Time-Plot (Single) | Line Chart | Data Portal

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population.un.org

It assumes that China's TFR will keep on increasing throughout this century when there is no evidence to support this. In fact, if you look at the experience of other East Asian developed countries, China's TFR will continue to face a downward pressure as China continues to develop and urbanize.

Even Chinese demographers also think the UN is too optimistic.

既然联合国已经有了对于中国未来人口的预测，为何我们仍然要对中国未来人口进行预测？原因是，联合国的预测往往倾向于高估中国人口。

例如，《世界人口展望2019》中方案假设2020至2100年的中国总和生育率将介于1.70到1.77之间，到本世纪末，中国总人口下降到10.65亿；低预测假设从2020年到2100年的总和生育率均为1.3左右，到本世纪末，中国人口将下降为6.84亿。

而《世界人口展望2017》中方案预计中国未来的总和生育率将介于1.6到1.8之间，到本世纪末，中国总人口下降到10.2亿；低方案假设从2015年到本世纪末的总和生育率均为1.3的水平，到本世纪末，中国人口将下降为6.2亿。

可见，即使是联合国的低方案假设的生育率也有1.3，但实际上，中国去年的生育率已经下降到了1.3，2021年的生育率将下降到了1.1左右，已经明显低于联合国低方案的生育率。由于城市化进程、高房价、子女教育成本过高等原因，中国人的平均生育意愿普遍低迷。因此，如果不大力鼓励生育，未来中国的生育率还会进一步下降。作为一种参照，韩国即便在鼓励生育的情况下，2020年的生育率也已经跌到了0.84。

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finance.sina.com.cn

China's TFR already fell to 1.1 in 2021. The TFR in urban China has fell to 0.86. China would be lucky if their TFR doesn't continue to fall to 0.78 like South Korea as it continues to develop and urbanize their remaining rural population.

http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/pcsj/rkpc/5rp/html/l0605a.htm

Here's the projection from Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences:

The Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences team predicts an annual average decline of 1.1% after 2021, pushing China’s population down to 587 million in 2100, less than half of what it is today.

The reasonable assumptions behind that prediction are that China’s total fertility rate slips from 1.15 to 1.1 between now and 2030, and remains there until 2100.

The rapid decline in China's population will have a profound impact on the country's economy.

China’s working-age population peaked in 2014 and is projected to shrink to less than one third of that peak by 2100.

China’s elderly population (aged 65 and above) is expected to continue to climb for most of that time, passing China’s working-age population near 2080.

China’s population is about to shrink for the first time since the great famine struck 60 years ago. Here’s what it means for the world

For the first time in 60 years, China's population is on track to decline. Sustained decreases will have an impact beyond just China's borders.

www.weforum.org

 

[etylo]

China can afford to let its population slowly naturely decrease to 500 millions over a long period of time for the optimum living conditions of people in China. So, there is no worry or time bomb for Chinese demographics. In the mean time, China can build large number of robots to take up unfilled jobs by humans.

 

[waz]

It's true and China needs to act now as the impact on growth will be great.
That being said the US also has a major demographic fall headache.

 

[VCheng]

US also has a major demographic fall headache.

Which headache is this, please?

 

[Corruptistan]

I think that people are HUGELY overestimating the "usefulness" of a large/giant population in terms of future economic growth considering the upcoming AI/robotics revolution that is just a question of time.

In fact large parts of the world's human populations might become totally redundant in the economic chain as scary as that sounds.

China will be fine, 1.4 billion is a too big population anyway and mostly completely concentrated in a relatively small geography (eastern and lowland China next to the sea).

Even a worst case scenario (500 million) is more than enough.

China much like India is severely overpopulated in a overall small geography.

If the US can/is a global superpower with roughly a bit over 300 million people (330 million something), why can't China be that as well with 2-3 times the population?

A much more wealthy China with say a 1 billion big population, would be far more powerful than current China with 1.4 billion people.

 

[Leishangthem]

china needs family arranged marriage,you can't trust the 21 century genz to find mate by online gaming, the population boom in south asia ,africa ,and muslim nations happens not just due to low IQ and thoughtless breeding but due to family arranged marriage,who can be better judge for selecting anyone's partner than their mom & dad?

 

[Get Ya Wig Split]

It's true and China needs to act now as the impact on growth will be great.
That being said the US also has a major demographic fall headache.

You're absolutely wrong re the US.

United States Population Projections​

The population of the US continues to grow today, driven by a high level of immigration. The latest data from the Census Bureau shows that US population growth is running at between 0.7% and 0.9% per year. A 2015 Census Bureau Report suggests that growth will slow somewhat, and projects a 2060 population of 417 million, with the country crossing the 400 million threshold in 2051.

The United Nations projects a lower total, estimating a population of just over 400 million in 2060.

Bear in mind the US can always increase its population quota similar to the 2000-2005 period.

 

[waz]

Which headache is this, please?

U.S. birth rates drop as women wait to have babies

The latest government figures show a sharp decline in U.S. fertility in recent years.

www.cbsnews.com

1.3 crikey…

You're absolutely wrong re the US.

United States Population Projections​

The population of the US continues to grow today, driven by a high level of immigration. The latest data from the Census Bureau shows that US population growth is running at between 0.7% and 0.9% per year. A 2015 Census Bureau Report suggests that growth will slow somewhat, and projects a 2060 population of 417 million, with the country crossing the 400 million threshold in 2051.

The United Nations projects a lower total, estimating a population of just over 400 million in 2060.

Bear in mind the US can always increase its population quota similar to the 2000-2005 period.

2015? Your birth rate stands at 1.3.

 

[Corruptistan]

You're absolutely wrong re the US.

United States Population Projections​

The population of the US continues to grow today, driven by a high level of immigration. The latest data from the Census Bureau shows that US population growth is running at between 0.7% and 0.9% per year. A 2015 Census Bureau Report suggests that growth will slow somewhat, and projects a 2060 population of 417 million, with the country crossing the 400 million threshold in 2051.

The United Nations projects a lower total, estimating a population of just over 400 million in 2060.

Bear in mind the US can always increase its population quota similar to the 2000-2005 period.

You do realize, at least this is the viewpoint of most conservative Christian White Americans (basically the founders and pioneers of the US on every front + the Jewish elites), that the fastest growing ethnic groups in the US are the "low IQ, good for nothing etc." African-Americans and in particular Latinos.

Also what makes you think that White Europeans want to migrate to an ever more unstable, crime ridden, race-obsessed USA, when by large Western Europe (overall) is far better off than the US on most metrics and most of the progressive Americans wanting to emulate Western European systems such as universal healthcare, welfare states, free education etc.

Much of US is basically the third world compared to much of Europe. Take states such as Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, New Mexico, West Virginia, Arkansas, Kentucky, Oklahoma, South Caroline, Tennessee etc.

The US is on a clear decline, I don't see how that will suddenly change for the better.