Defense of Taiwan is US’ biggest challenge: analyst | Taipei Times

[Martian2]

Defense of Taiwan is US’ biggest challenge: analyst - Taipei Times

 

[Steve781]

The US doesn't have a guarantee to go to war for Taiwan. They just have to "help in Taiwan's defence" which could just mean sending weapons.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

The US doesn't have a guarantee to go to war for Taiwan. They just have to "help in Taiwan's defence" which could just mean sending weapons.

Correct. It was ended in 1980.
Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

"Accordingly, the treaty came to an end on 1 January 1980, one year after the United States established diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China on 1 January 1979."

We closed United States Taiwan Defense Command - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[terranMarine]

When China has a few AC, fleets of type 055, 052C/D, 054A supported by modernized J-20s, J-15s, overwhelming UAVs, dozens of improved nuclear subs, zubr class, 2-3 helicopter carriers. Fully militarized our islands in SCS and an arsenal DF-21, DF-26 at our disposal. Nobody wants to start a war or want to get in our way for unification. Our Taiwanese brothers knows it's better to embrace Mainland than to die fighting a losing war.

 

[KAL-EL]

The US doesn't have a guarantee to go to war for Taiwan. They just have to "help in Taiwan's defence" which could just mean sending weapons.

Martian, despite his sometimes hyper-nationalistic bellicose rhetoric, seems to be an intelligent person.

That being said..

Looking at what seems to be the basis of many of his postings, one might conclude the following things:

1. China is totally unstoppable and surrounded by a giant indestructible force shield. It can project massive amounts of force and none of its bases or ships can be targeted by any known weapon.

2. USA has a very weak military, with military tech seemingly far behind China.

3. China could at anytime preemptively attack the United States with absolutely no fear of retaliation. because well.. the United States would simply let itself be attacked because it doesn't have the ability or the military power to be able to defend itself. it would also be to afraid to defend itself.

 

[DoTell]

Defense of Taiwan is US’ biggest challenge: analyst - Taipei Times
Chinese military planners want to use Taiwan as a military base to threaten Japan, South Korea and the Philippines

Wrong. More like China does NOT want be threatened by the U.S. using Taiwan as a military base. If Taiwan is allowed to be an independent country, it'd allow the U.S. to build a military base there just as Japan, South Korea and the Philippines have. And that is not acceptable to China.

To Taiwan, hope its people come to the senses that their bargaining chips are getting smaller and smaller by the year. Better to come to the negotiation table before they lose it all

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

Wrong. More like China does NOT want be threatened by the U.S. using Taiwan as a military base. If Taiwan is allowed to be an independent country, it'd allow the U.S. to build a military base there just as Japan, South Korea and the Philippines have. And that is not acceptable to China.

We already had bases there for decades.
List of United States Air Force installations - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[terranMarine]

Wrong. More like China does NOT want be threatened by the U.S. using Taiwan as a military base. If Taiwan is allowed to be an independent country, it'd allow the U.S. to build a military base there just as Japan, South Korea and the Philippines have. And that is not acceptable to China.

To Taiwan, hope its people come to the senses that their bargaining chips are getting smaller and smaller by the year. Better to come to the negotiation table before they lose it all

Taiwanese politicians want to delay bargaining with Mainland, oh well China is in no rush as we have plenty of time to build up our forces. For the coming decades Taiwan is low priority.

 

[DoTell]

Martian, despite his sometime hyper-nationalistic bellicose rhetoric, seems to be an intelligent person.

That being said..

Looking at what seems to be the basis of many of his postings, one might conclude the following things:

1. China is totally unstoppable and surrounded by a giant indestructible force shield. It can project massive amounts of force and none of its bases or ships can be targeted by any known weapon.

2. USA has a very weak military, with military tech seemingly far behind China.

3. China could at anytime preemptively attack the United States with absolutely no fear of retaliation. because well.. the United States would simply let itself be attacked because it doesn't have the ability or the military power to be able to defend itself.

I don't get these "conclusions" at all. LOL. China by no means has an unstoppable force. And we all know the destructive capability of the mighty U.S. of A. What China is trying to accomplish is to show to all parties involved the potential cost of Taiwan declaring independence. China draws the bottom line that is not to be crossed, or it'll be armageddon for everyone.

We already had bases there for decades.
List of United States Air Force installations - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

No you don't. Come on, are you talking about Taiwan? Did you read into the page you linked?

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

I don't get these "conclusions" at all. LOL. China by no means has an unstoppable force. And we all know the destructive capability of the mighty U.S. of A. What China is trying to accomplish is to show to all parties involved the potential cost of Taiwan declaring independence. China draws the bottom line that is not to be crossed, or it'll be armageddon for everyone.



No you don't. Come on, are you talking about Taiwan?

Yes, we fully pulled out in 1979 (started in 1974 with the end of the Vietnam War) when we ended the treaty.

 

[DoTell]

Yes, we pulled out in 1979 when we ended the treaty.
It was even a stopover place during the Vietnam War.

Sorry I misread. Thought you said "we already have..."

Cool signature BTW, LOL.

 

[KAL-EL]

I don't get these "conclusions" at all. LOL. China by no means has an unstoppable force. And we all know the destructive capability of the mighty U.S. of A. What China is trying to accomplish is to show to all parties involved the potential cost of Taiwan declaring independence. China draws the bottom line that is not to be crossed, or it'll be armageddon for everyone.

I acknowledge the rationality and logic (in your post) about defending and developing a deterrent reagrding a possible Taiwan Independence declaration.

My thoughts were regarding not just this one specific post by him. That's why I had said "the basis of many of his postings"

Obviously he never said those exact words (as far as I know) It's just the general vibe and attitude he protrudes on these matters at times.

 

[Martian2]

RAND says China has military parity with US over Taiwan in 2017

According to an analysis by US think-tank RAND, China has military parity with the United States in a 2017 Taiwan conflict.

It'll be 2016 in three weeks. Thus, China presently has a 50/50 chance of winning a Taiwan conflict.

In 2018, China will mass produce J-20 stealth fighters in huge batches. Thus, it is common sense that China will start dominating in any Taiwan scenario after 2018.

By the way, look at how dramatically things have changed from 1996 (see color chart below).

http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR300/RR392/RAND_RR392.pdf

 

[xunzi]

No one should underestimate our resolution to defend our territorial integrity. There is nobody who is more willing to fight a war over Taiwan than us.

 

[terranMarine]

No one should underestimate our resolution to defend our territorial integrity. There is nobody who is more willing to fight a war over Taiwan than us.

Indeed, there can be absolute no doubt that China is gonna defend our territory. And nobody in the neighborhood is gonna stick its neck out. It's gonna be a full frontal war between 2 giants if the US doesn't back off when that day comes. China will prevail no matter how one looks at it when our forces are fully modernized, not to mention the major advantages we have due to the proximity, logistics and to be able to deploy all our forces. Yankees won't be sending their boys to die for Taiwan. Just look at DPRK, the US wasn't willing to bomb the nuclear facility because that will trigger Korean War v2. The Americans know the price is very huge and they won't be able to defend it.