Decline of the West: China, India to Replace US, EU by 2050-PwC Report

[Echo_419]

Allow me to make a wild prediction.

As long as China has 1.3-1.5 billion people living at first world standards, India will NEVER become a high income country because there will not be enough raw materials and natural resources left over to do it. China will have consumed all the world's natural resources by then. In fact, China is already doing it.

Steel production is a good example:

List of countries by steel production - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

You can't build a modern industrialized country without steel. Steel is the backbone of a modern country. Every bridge, freeway, railway, skyscraper, automobile, and ship contain steel. China is already producing more steel than the next 10 countries combined. Where will India get the iron ore to produce enough steel to match China? Will India industrialize without steel?

Electricity production is another example:

The World Factbook

India will have to multiply her current electricity production by 6 just to match China's 2013 figure. Where will India get this energy from? China has massive coal reserves. Does India have the same? Does India have the transportation infrastructure to transport such a large amount of coal around the country?

Are you 11 years old ?

Indian government is smart, they manipulate the key economic figure by changing the indicator, for example, all the world use CPI to measure the level of the rise of price of the commodity, Indians use WPI (Wholesale Price Index) instead. Because the weight factor of food accounts only for 15.4%, but if it were CPI, this weight is 47%~57%, the CPI will far surpass 20%. The Indian government also set the base period of WPI in 1993-1994 when the real CPI is very high, so the real CPI is far more than their official number.

Please read this thread
In Defense Of India's New GDP Numbers

Thanks for showing growth ion India. This are not fudged numbers. You have more integrity than your PM.

You should read more before commenting

 

[Kaniska]

This is too much of hype...West and Europe is not rich because of their population....Rather their invention and contribution to the science and technology...As long as China, ( I do not consider even India should be considered) reach to a level where a basic capsule like Tylenol is invented by China,then it is just a day dream to surpass West and US...Inspite of being a leading economic player, China does not have anything invented that touch upon our day to day lives...The only thing that informs us is the " Made in China" is all of our household items from the low cost grocery stores like Wallmart and Costco.

So my entire concept is that someone is not developed because the size of economy rather the quality of life it provides to its citizen...Think about even Singapore,Norway,Ireland,Sweden or many Europian nations.The quality of life is so better although they are in the league of so called developed nations..So this kind of theories are just floated out to satisfy their own campus lecture prediction.

 

[Ragnar]

It is more likely that China and US will be at the top, with India at 3rd position. But the gap between US and India is likely to be a huge one. India has some inherent weaknesses which may not be resolved in the near future.These long-term predictions seldom work. Over 35 years- some new, radical technology or some new resource, could upset all calculations.

 

[Edison Chen]

PRC despite being a shrewd and cunning people can be trusted to get things done most of the time. PRC business partner is a torn between politics and optimizing efficiency.

You still can close deal with PRC and after some time, it is still possible to have some genuine friendship.

Indian is a different animal altogether. These are people that I would rather not work with. Indians are people who can sacrifice anything, any efficiency to make sure they are in charge and to make sure no one threaten their position.

The Indians managers hiring and promotions are extremely irrational and a lot of their undelings are pure incompetent.

Indians customers are devil. They have poison tongue and they think they themselves are king. Even after getting job done, Indian customers can pick on very minor things and make a big fuss. On the other hand, if you are customer of Indian, especially software, be assure they deliver stuff full of bug.

It is better to runaway from India market and any Indian companies altogether.

I am very pessimistic about India and any company taken over by Indians.

India is good because white man help them and white man propaganda machine praise them.

You always hear Beijing is polluted but you never hear Delhi, Varanasi..etc are the most air toxic city in the world by any standards.

True.

In my uni, the Indian students monopolize nearly all the campus job opportunities, they only recommend Indians without even checking their abilities.

So this is to under report inflation. Which in turn will increase GDP growth rate regularly. I wonder what is India's real GDP if it's calculate like everyone else.

China has many hidden economy activities that still not calculated in the GDP, because it's hard to count, the constructions in many rural areas are one example. Look China tries to be humble, but India tries to talk aloud. This, from another way, reflects India lacks persistent growth.

 

[ito]

True.

In my uni, the Indian students monopolize nearly all the campus job opportunities, they only recommend Indians without even checking their abilities.

Which Uni you studied? I too am planning for my further studies in US?

By the way...Indians are street smart and know how to get things done. While Chinese are not that good in networking.

 

[Edison Chen]

Which Uni you studied? I too am planning for my further studies in US?

By the way...Indians are street smart and know how to get things done. While Chinese are not that good in networking.

I know Indian networking in the US is strong, and you have barely no language barrier in the US. Uni of Texas, Austin. I've graduated now. Which level of education you are going for? Good luck to your future study.

 

[ito]

I know Indian networking in the US is strong, and you have barely no language barrier in the US. Uni of Texas, Austin. I've graduated now. Which level of education you are going for? Good luck to your future study.

Chinese are good at writing English, but Indians excel at speaking English. This makes a lot of difference.

I am a graduate of IIT Delhi. I have two years experience under my belt in finance. I am plan to do either MS in Financial Engineering or MBA Finance. Not yet decided

 

[Edison Chen]

Chinese are good at writing English, but Indians excel at speaking English. This makes a lot of difference.

I am a graduate of IIT Delhi. I have two years experience under my belt in finance. I am plan to do either MS in Financial Engineering or MBA Finance. Not yet decided

LOL! IIT, very famous university, it has many campus right? Hardly can I see Indian students with business major, most of you go for EE or CS major. Both majors are ok, you can also choose MBA-accounting track if possible, more practical than finance.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

LOL! IIT, very famous university, it has many campus right? Hardly can I see Indian students with business major, most of you go for EE or CS major. Both majors are ok, you can also choose MBA-accounting track if possible, more practical than finance.

Edison, We have already switched to using CPI for some time now. Also, where are you working now?

 

[Edison Chen]

Edison, We have already switched to using CPI for some time now. Also, where are you working now?

Now I work in a bank in Beijing.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

Now I work in a bank in Beijing.

Great! If I come to Beijing, I would like for sure to meet you!

 

[j20blackdragon]

(01) With a total production of 83.20 million tonnes (MT), India remained the world's fourth-largest steel producing nation for the fifth year in a row in 2014 as well, according to data compiled by WSA.

India retains fourth position in world steel order - Economic Times

(02) India is expected to become the world's second largest producer of crude steel in 2015-16, moving up from the fourth position, as its capacity is projected to increase from 100 million tonne (MT) to about 112.5 MT in 2015-16.

India on its way to be the second largest producer of steel in 2015-16: Study - Economic Times

(03) India becomes World's Third Largest Electricity Producer in 2013 doubling its generation capacity to 2.50 lakh MW in 10 Years.

​

India becomes World's Third Largest Electricity Producer overtaking Japan

Use your brains people. India has a population of 1.2 billion. How do you expect to become a first world nation when you only produce 10% of China's steel? When you only produce 16-20% of China's electricity? China itself is not a first world nation. We need to build a lot more. So what does that make India? Africa level?

 

[Chanakya's_Chant]

Use your brains people. India has a population of 1.2 billion. How do you expect to become a first world nation when you only produce 10% of China's steel? When you only produce 16-20% of China's electricity? China itself is not a first world nation. We need to build a lot more. So what does that make India? Africa level?

My post was only to clarify the use of WPI instead of CPI in India - for yours it was to update those figures.

BTW what's behind your pathological hatred for India?

 

[Keel]

India is importing steel from China
India considers raising steel import duties to curb China shipments| Reuters

This is too much of hype...West and Europe is not rich because of their population....Rather their invention and contribution to the science and technology...As long as China, ( I do not consider even India should be considered) reach to a level where a basic capsule like Tylenol is invented by China,then it is just a day dream to surpass West and US...Inspite of being a leading economic player, China does not have anything invented that touch upon our day to day lives...The only thing that informs us is the " Made in China" is all of our household items from the low cost grocery stores like Wallmart and Costco.

So my entire concept is that someone is not developed because the size of economy rather the quality of life it provides to its citizen...Think about even Singapore,Norway,Ireland,Sweden or many Europian nations.The quality of life is so better although they are in the league of so called developed nations..So this kind of theories are just floated out to satisfy their own campus lecture prediction.

I agree that the fundamental measurement of the how well a country is doing is the quality of lives of its people ie in a rough sense the GDP per capita

However, in respect of the China part, invention and innovation are important for the greatest "value additions" to the economy. Like in your example "Tylenol" which is an otc drugs invented by the west. In China we have our own I"Tylenol" which is formulated in the medical receipes of TCM. These are indigenous inventions not for exports globally but they are demanded for huge internal consumption

Also, China is moving upwards on the value chain for more sophisticated products which are sold at high values overseas

Think about how Norway, HK or Singapore are having a high quality of lives. How many things have the people from these places invented in their history?

So on top of inventions and innovations there are many factors which can help sustain a high quality of lives in a country.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Chinese are good at writing English, but Indians excel at speaking English. This makes a lot of difference.

I am a graduate of IIT Delhi. I have two years experience under my belt in finance. I am plan to do either MS in Financial Engineering or MBA Finance. Not yet decided

I don't see many Indians in business. The business school here is purely Chinese and Korean. Lots of Indians in EE and CS though there are Indians in my department too.