Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions

[luckyyy]

i think MMRCA deal is off....

 

[jha]

i think MMRCA deal is off....

Off the hook or, OFF ..?

 

[Hello_10]

Folks, as a part of my job, we closed a large Industrial equipment contract in December 2011. It was worth couple of hundred million dollars. The paperwork for that contract was 3 boxes which filled up the trunk of a family station wagon, addendums were the same amount of extra paperwork and took us (a complete organization) 3-4 months of document preparation, screening by customer and pre-negotiations work...

Cut to MMRCA, this is a deal worth $15-20Billion, involves offset contracts, gazillions of moving parts - both in the machines and the contracts, bazillions of spare part contracts, training contracts, detailed metrics to standardize the quotes to a common ground etc etc etc... Given that it has just been a quarter since the bids have opened up... it will take time...

Point is... when MOD said that they will finalize the contract in a few weeks, there is no way that they ór anyone else could have been sure of the 'exact' period it will take, it was the best 'guess' that they could have given... IMHO, delay of a few weeks or months is not a big deal... Let's not loose sleep over it (talking to myself here)

MRCA won’t to be considered if it can’t be kept with limit of $12.6bn for 126 aircrafts including building infrastructure, with fully loaded with missiles also. If IAF is getting 42 upgraded SU30MKIs for $4.1bn, with stealth features/ powerful AESA radar with loaded with Brahmos missiles also, then IAF won’t pay more than $100mil for a similar type aircrafts like Rafale or EFT. EFT can’t keep itself for less than $100mil, (also if Rafale is on production line then EFT need 3-4 years more to develop AESA radar also), while if these upgraded SU30MKIs are better on air superiority side then Rafale is better on multi role side. Even 5th gen stealth PAK FA/ FGFA would also cost around $100mil and would come in production from 2018, then why IAF would pay more than $100mil for 4th gen Rafale or EFT which would also come from 2015/16 onwards?

But, 2 LCA>> 1 EFT or Rafale. And multi role aircrafts LCAs, mk2 with proposed AESA radar, would cost no more than $40mil while IAF is already going to pay around $3.9bn to upgrade 51 Mirage2000H to 2000-5mk2 standard with loading them with missiles also. And with LCAs, these upgraded Mirage2000-5 mk2 may do any type of very specialized Multi role operations, if required.

IAF has full techs of SU30MKIs and LCAs from raw to product and if they buy 63 new upgraded MKIs, similar to their recent order of 42 for $4.1bn, then it would cost no more than $6.3bn with hardly $6.0bn for 150 upgraded LCAs more, + 300mil for developing AESA radar also if required, well within $12.6bn limit. And 63MKIs+150LCAs = 213 >> 126 Rafale?

While Rafale is still a ‘Paper Tiger’ and hasn’t won even a single order till now. Their only hope is this MRCA deal otherwise time of 5th gen aircrafts will start after just 5-6 years from now and then no one would pay $100mil for a 4th gen aircraft. IAC-1 will have Mig29K and IAC-3, which will come in operation from 2025-26, will have naval version of PAK FA. But IN may consider Rafale for their IAC-2 which would come in operation from 2020 onwards but they won’t pay more than $100mil for Rafale, fully loaded with missiles. Means more order for Rafale if they get MRCA and with more publicity for this aircraft otherwise no one else from rest of the world will buy Rafale also? This MRCA will decide fate of Rafale also, I think, but IAF mustn’t pay more than $12.6bn for 126 Rafale with loaded with missiles also

 

[lamlap]

i think MMRCA deal is off....

yes, sad news

 

[sancho]

MRCA won’t to be considered if it can’t be kept with limit of $12.6bn for 126 aircrafts including building infrastructure, with fully loaded with missiles also. If IAF is getting 42 upgraded SU30MKIs for $4.1bn, with stealth features/ powerful AESA radar with loaded with Brahmos missiles also, then IAF won’t pay more than $100mil for a similar type aircrafts like Rafale or EFT.

First of all, weapon deals are always additional deals and not included in the procurment or upgrades of fighters.

Secondly, MoD knew the cost of the fighters before they shortlisted the most expensive fighters in the competitions, which logically tells us, that no matter what they have no problem with the unit cost of the EF or Rafale.

Thirdly, former IAF Chief Naik stated that the lifecycle cost is more important than the unit cost, which is one reason why neither the Mig had a chance, nor more heavy class Flankers will be procured instead of MMRCAs.

While Rafale is still a ‘Paper Tiger’

You are for Mig 35, upgraded MKI, LCA MK1 and 2, which all doesn't exist today and still call Rafale a paper Tiger?

Once again, since there are still people who missed that some of the most important requirements of MMRCA are, ToT and offsets, but neither upgraded MKI, nor LCA will get India this. Also IAF wants alternative weapons to the Russian/Indian weapon package that the LCA, Mig 29 SMT/K and MKIs mainly will use.

MKIs and in future FGFAs will remain Indias prime fighters, but in addition to them and till LCA will be ready for opertational service, western fighters are needed and MoD/GoI combined the procurement with getting additional advantages for India. That's why MMRCA is important and why we are ready to pay higher prizes if we get enough in return too!

 

[luckyyy]

MoD knew the cost of the fighters before they shortlisted the most expensive fighters in the competitions,

you known to crack a joke every now and then...

 

[sancho]

MMRCA by third week of Jan

By SP's Special Correspondent

MMRCA January 02, 2012: The mother of all Indian deals, the medium multirole combat aircraft (MMRCA) competition is likely to see a winner announced in the third week of January 2012. After commercial bids were opened on November 4, the Air Force and MoD created a specialised three-layered team to squeeze a winner out of the final round of comparisons between Dassault's Rafale and the Eurofighter Typhoon. There was a spot of doubt last week over the notion of extension of commercial bids, since their validity expired on December 31. However, the MoD clarified that once the bids were opened, there was no provision for extension, and therefore there was no cause for concern.

An IAF source suggested that the vendors were unlikely to flag this as an issue at such a crucial time since neither would be wanting to "rock the boat" too much. Also, the fact that both contenders are European (and therefore are subject to near identical currency fluctuations), the playing field is level. Currently, the committee poring over the hundreds of sheets in the commercial bids are converting currencies and formulating a table where parameters are comparable.

The financial parameters required the MoD and IAF have been submitted in eight separate categories, M1 to M8. These include unit flyaway cost (the first 18 aircraft will be bought straight from the manufacturer), lifecycle cost, operational cost, lifecycle cost of spares, aggregates and fuel usage, cost of overhaul, cost of mid-life upgrade, cost of transfer of technology and M8, the final tally of all costs involved -- the final figure that will be compared to declare a winner.

MMRCA by third week of Jan - SP's Aviation

So no canceling of the competition and a final decision might be already done, also another confirmation that the L1 means cheapest total cost, not cheapest unit cost!

 

[luckyyy]

[So no canceling of the competition and a final decision might be already done, also another confirmation that the L1 means cheapest total cost, not cheapest unit cost!

you still forget to consider the banchmark price..

 

[sancho]

you still forget to consider the banchmark price..

Yes and MoD forgot about it too right? Again, they new the how expensive the fighters are before they shortlisted them, they only didn't knew how far the vendors compromised on it in the bids. If MoD had any doubt about them not fitting into the budget they / the government has in mind, they could have shortlisted a 3rd cheaper fighter too, which had given them all options. That's one reason I did expected the F18SH to be shortlisted too, but the fact is that they didn't and choose only Rafale and EF. That means, they expect at least one of them to fulfill their budget requirements and since the comercial bids seems not to be extended anymore, everything hints on a decision soon.

 

[mastaan]

you still forget to consider the banchmark price..

There is nothing called as Benchmark Price in such a huge ticket item purchases... It is always price indexed to a basis and competition is relative to those levels... There are quoted prices, indexation formulae and their application conditions... Trust me, it is not so simple and easy for long lead time, multiple year supply contracts as "here, 126 fighers for $12billion and it is fixed and next 5 years"... You can not have a negotiation or deal like that for this kind of a deal

Let me give you a contextual example... If a defence supplier quotes price of $1 for a bullet to Indian Army. Now he has his raw material prices assumed for a specifc day... eg. Price is specific to X $ per ton of Bronze, Y $ per ton value of dynamite and euro to $ conversion rate of 1.43 (if the defence supplier is buying some material from euro countries)... So, now, if the contract is signed and one or two or all three rates move up or down, how can the vendor still keep supplying at the same price??? He will be contractually obligated to raise the price and you will be bound to give him that extra money. He possibly can not buy the entire raw material on the day he quoted and there can be significant difference between prices from the day of quote to day to contract signing (so, one needs to address that) and in addition, there are some components that you can not possibly store for 4-6 years (too valatile, too scarce, too complicated or yet to be cleared with design approved stamp)... This is known as 'price escalation clause' and every basic capital equipments order contains such things... And given that for most of the jets the hardware is made from different types of raw materials, you should also know that the cheapest figher might just now be the most expensive, for all you know... So, when anyone negotiates such a contract over such an elongated period of time, prices are always 'assumed' to have a possible inflatory effect and at every stage, basis calculations to highlight index changes are done by both the supplier and purchaser... this is "contracting 101" and and the contracting division of the MoD (which is one of the biggest purchasers in the world) would not even do that cardinal sin in their sleep or even if they wanted to... even the budget approvals will have these escalation clause and recheck mechanisms...

lol... So, IMHO, it will be just too naive to assume that MoD just 'forgot' about the price and now they will cancel the contract because the price is too expensive... So, let's not worry unnecessarily... The order is on its way!

 

[luckyyy]

Yes and MoD forgot about it too right? Again, they new the how expensive the fighters are before they shortlisted them, they only didn't knew how far the vendors compromised on it in the bids. If MoD had any doubt about them not fitting into the budget they / the government has in mind, they could have shortlisted a 3rd cheaper fighter too, which had given them all options. That's one reason I did expected the F18SH to be shortlisted too, but the fact is that they didn't and choose only Rafale and EF. That means, they expect at least one of them to fulfill their budget requirements and since the comercial bids seems not to be extended anymore, everything hints on a decision soon.

nobody had forgotten the banchmark price , but it was techinal evaluation commite which selected the two finalist and not the MoD or the finance ministry...

 

[kingdurgaking]

Yes and MoD forgot about it too right? Again, they new the how expensive the fighters are before they shortlisted them, they only didn't knew how far the vendors compromised on it in the bids. If MoD had any doubt about them not fitting into the budget they / the government has in mind, they could have shortlisted a 3rd cheaper fighter too, which had given them all options. That's one reason I did expected the F18SH to be shortlisted too, but the fact is that they didn't and choose only Rafale and EF. That means, they expect at least one of them to fulfill their budget requirements and since the comercial bids seems not to be extended anymore, everything hints on a decision soon.

May be MoD knowingly included the best & costliest fighters and makes sure that both of them dont come within Benchmark price so that F-35 comes in back..

 

[luckyyy]

off late but i am sure the IAF/MoD had realize that there is no use to put money into a new platform at this stage...
1) both EF and rafale are more expensive then the MKI ..
2) MKI had a proven record and most leathal and trusted in IAF..
3) HAL has spend billions on biulding the infrastructure to build MKI in india , why would there be a need to spand more money again for MMRCA..
4)with LCA , FGFA amd MCA on card , why would HAL be spanding money on MMRCA , there can't be unlimited funds available with them..
5) to my understanding MoD will buy more MKIs to fill the gap and IAF will just focus more no FGFA ....

anyway , the no-news on MMRCA as the bid expired on 31dec clearly means that MMRCA is cancalled...

people will still argue about the expirey of bids suggesting that bids are valid even after 31dec coz they are opened...but they need to realize the company law which stats that " commercial bids are only vaild till the expiry date and if the contrect is not signed till that date , the bids gets void "

so , as per law , coz the bidders are not asked to extend/renew the bidds , thay stand void as of now...

 

[kingdurgaking]

you still forget to consider the banchmark price..

i guess both of them are within the range.. News coming out of MoD states that it is a new year gift for IAF

 

[kingdurgaking]

off late but i am sure the IAF/MoD had realize that there is no use to put money into a new platform at this stage...
1) both EF and rafale are more expensive then the MKI ..
2) MKI had a proven record and most leathal and trusted in IAF..
3) HAL has spend billions on biulding the infrastructure to build MKI in india , why would there be a need to spand more money again for MMRCA..
4)with LCA , FGFA amd MCA on card , why would HAL be spanding money on MMRCA , there can't be unlimited funds available with them..
5) to my understanding MoD will buy more MKIs to fill the gap and IAF will just focus more no FGFA ....

anyway , the no-news on MMRCA as the bid expired on 31dec clearly means that MMRCA is cancalled...

people will still argue about the expirey of bids suggesting that bids are valid even after 31dec coz they are opened...but they need to realize the company law which stats that " commercial bids are only vaild till the expiry date and if the contrect is not signed till that date , the bids gets void "

so , as per law , coz the bidders are not asked to extend/renew the bidds , thay stand void as of now...

simple answer would be... there is a need for medium sized fighters which the IAF has realized when the latest war broke out