Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2]

[Abingdonboy]

I was dying to do this at the faces of all naysayers n trollers. Today

$75 MN is really a good price. Negotiation committee did a lot better job than I thought. Credit goes to all those involved.

Rafale saga is now almost finished. @Abingdonboy @PARIKRAMA u guys ready for trolls on FGFA.

It's not over until the fat lady sings, let's not count our chickens just yet.


+ @SR-91 you are bang on about the fact that the FGFA is about to become the target for the trolls henceforth. Hopefully Modi will pick off both the FGFA and Rafale issues and get them in order in the next few months and give none of these clowns the ammunition.

I have to hand it to Modi, it appears he has managed to MASSIVELY turn around the fortunes of the IAF's fighter fleet in just over a year (if everything we are predicting comes true @surya kiran @PARIKRAMA )- LCA (with AESA), tick, FGFA/PAK-FA, tick, Rafale, tick.



@Dash @Star Wars @Stephen Cohen your boy might not be so bad after all

 

[Star Wars]

@Dash @Star Wars @Stephen Cohen your boy might not be so bad after all

AbingdonSanghi ?

 

[Dash]

My friend, I have told you this earlier and am telling you again. More than 120 Rafales are coming in. It is going to be Reliance. Wait for December. Extra capacity of PakFa is going to be bought for 50 birds, at least. By 2020, Rafale and PakFa will be in the IAF kitty. The threat perception is no longer Pakistan. Hence, the urgency.

My dear friend, please forget about 120 Rafale for the time, be sure they are not coming and its NOT Reliance! for god sake!

It's not over until the fat lady sings, let's not count our chickens just yet.


+ @SR-91 you are bang on about the fact that the FGFA is about to become the target for the trolls henceforth. Hopefully Modi will pick off both the FGFA and Rafale issues and get them in order in the next few months and give none of these clowns the ammunition.

I have to hand it to Modi, it appears he has managed to MASSIVELY turn around the fortunes of the IAF's fighter fleet in just over a year (if everything we are predicting comes true @surya kiran @PARIKRAMA )- LCA (with AESA), tick, FGFA/PAK-FA, tick, Rafale, tick.



@Dash @Star Wars @Stephen Cohen your boy might not be so bad after all

My boy is the right man for this job, and mate I am assuring you that 120 Rafale is not coming.

 

[surya kiran]

My dear friend, please forget about 120 Rafale for the time, be sure they are not coming and its NOT Reliance! for god sake!

80 my friend is coming in fly away condition. At-least. Anyways, let's wait and watch. No point speculating for now.

 

[Dash]

80 my friend is coming in fly away condition. At-least. Anyways, let's wait and watch. No point speculating for now.

ok buddy, lets wait then

 

[GURU DUTT]

I was dying to do this at the faces of all naysayers n trollers. Today

$75 MN is really a good price. Negotiation committee did a lot better job than I thought. Credit goes to all those involved.

Rafale saga is now almost finished. @Abingdonboy @PARIKRAMA u guys ready for trolls on FGFA.

75million$$s for what

 

[Abingdonboy]

My boy is the right man for this job, and mate I am assuring you that 120 Rafale is not coming.

So you think the PM/DM are stupid enough to go for a quantity that isn't sufficient for even 2 SQNs? This would be the largest blunder the NDA could pull and they would be ripped apart for it by the opposition and CAG. I don't think any of these 36 Rafale advocates understand that getting 36 units is not the problem but building up the requite support and infrastructure for such a pitiful amount in an AF the size of the IAF with as many airbases as them is not economically viable. Have you heard of economies of scale? It is a very basic concept that simply makes a deal for 36 jets nonsensical. Did you hear the remarks of the ACM? He officially stated the need for a further 6 SQNs of Rafales.

Let me put it this way- the IAF would be better served getting 0 Rafales then in getting anything below 80. Any industry expert will tell you the same.

Is the DM/PM stupid enough to create a white elephant of mammoth proportions for the IAF? Let's see but I don't think they are. Any Modi/NDA fanboy/supporter better hope that 36 is not the final number, if it is they have massively let their nation down.

 

[Dukkar]

So you think the PM/DM are stupid enough to go for a quantity that isn't sufficient for even 2 SQNs? This would be the largest blunder the NDA could pull and they would be ripped apart for it by the opposition and CAG. I don't think any of these 36 Rafale advocates understand that getting 36 units is not the problem but building up the requite support and infrastructure for such a pitiful amount in an AF the size of the IAF with as many airbases as them is not economically viable. Have you heard of economies of scale? It is a very basic concept that simply makes a deal for 36 jets nonsensical. Did you hear the remarks of the ACM? He officially stated the need for a further 6 SQNs of Rafales.

Let me put it this way- the IAF would be better served getting 0 Rafales then in getting anything below 80. Any industry expert will tell you the same.

Is the DM/PM stupid enough to create a white elephant of mammoth proportions for the IAF? Let's see but I don't think they are. Any Modi/NDA fanboy/supporter better hope that 36 is not the final number, if it is they have massively let their nation down.

36 it will be,mark my words & bookmark this post .

 

[Abingdonboy]

36 it will be,mark my words & bookmark this post .

Based on........?

And can you justify such a pitiful order? Bookmark what you like, it doesn't change the fact that such a move would be beyond stupid.

 

[Dash]

So you think the PM/DM are stupid enough to go for a quantity that isn't sufficient for even 2 SQNs? This would be the largest blunder the NDA could pull and they would be ripped apart for it by the opposition and CAG. I don't think any of these 36 Rafale advocates understand that getting 36 units is not the problem but building up the requite support and infrastructure for such a pitiful amount in an AF the size of the IAF with as many airbases as them is not economically viable. Have you heard of economies of scale? It is a very basic concept that simply makes a deal for 36 jets nonsensical. Did you hear the remarks of the ACM? He officially stated the need for a further 6 SQNs of Rafales.

Let me put it this way- the IAF would be better served getting 0 Rafales then in getting anything below 80. Any industry expert will tell you the same.

Is the DM/PM stupid enough to create a white elephant of mammoth proportions for the IAF? Let's see but I don't think they are. Any Modi/NDA fanboy/supporter better hope that 36 is not the final number, if it is they have massively let their nation down.

Raha never officially demanded 6 squadrons, he said he would like to have 6 squadrons and he also said the other 6 squadrons could be made of a Rafale like aircraft. I think that was stupid of him.

36 is not a maintenance nightmare if you look at the airforce in the 80s. and I havent heard any industry expert, heck even IAF officially citing any maintenance problem with it.

IAF initially started this competition to fill the numbers for migs. Until then they had medium - low combination until they added a heavy fighter Sukhoi 30 MKI. Now they changed operating rules and aded a medium cobination in btn. Sukhio heavy, Rafale medium and erased the low end fighter, which was Tejas, specifically built for ading numbers and operating lowest at the food chain.

Its stupid I will say, that they wont accept Tejas, and still do roona dhona that they are falling short in squadrons. Now tell me mate, how on earth IAF will fill numbers with just Rafale in mind and there was an excercize for additional 60? Their constant argument was they need this fighter for growing Chinese threat (thats why MOD gave them S400 to shut their mouth).

Its all IAF's fault and their love for foreign maal. and Modi supporters have nothing to do with IAF's mistakes. and what Modi is doing is right and I support Modi fully in it. Let me also tell you that Modi is making Army buy 300 Arjun Mk2. Yes you heard me right.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Raha never officially demanded 6 squadrons, he said he would like to have 6 squadrons and he also said the other 6 squadrons could be made of a Rafale like aircraft. I think that was stupid of him.

He clearly stated there was a requirement for an additional 6 SQNs of Rafales, the comment about "Rafale-like" a/c is nonsensical but intentional so as to not seem that he was undermining the GoI/MoD's bargaining position.

36 is not a maintenance nightmare if you look at the airforce in the 80s. and I havent heard any industry expert, heck even IAF officially citing any maintenance problem with it.

Comparing the IAF to the force it was in the 80s to how it will be in 2030 or 2040 (the Rafales will serve for 30+ years) is illogical. India was a very different country in the 80s and so was the IAF. The maintenance issues were not so apparent because the IAF understood they could only afford limited numbers and hence had single types per airbase (i.e. all of the Miragee 2000s deployed at Gwalior). But the IAF today wants full spectrum war fighting capability meaning that all their assets can be deployed to any of their geographically dispersed airbases= this would not be feasible for just 36 fighters- Dassualt, the IAF and MoD/PMO know as much.

IAF initially started this competition to fill the numbers for migs. Until then they had medium - low combination until they added a heavy fighter Sukhoi 30 MKI. Now they changed operating rules and aded a medium cobination in btn. Sukhio heavy, Rafale medium and erased the low end fighter, which was Tejas, specifically built for ading numbers and operating lowest at the food chain.

This is nonsense the IAF has NEVER "erased" the low-end requirement but had pushed forward with other procurements as the LCA matured. The IAF has been consistent for 20+ years, there is none of this doctrinal shift you are talking about. They want a top end air dominance fighter (MKI/FGFA) a light point-defence fighter (LCA) and a long range strike fighter to compliment both (Rafale). Neither the MKI nor the LCA can be considered substitutes for the Rafale, the Rafale is an essential purchase whether you like it or not and it is simply unthinkable to go for a number as low as 36.

Anyone dreaming about this needs to wake up- it would HARM India's interests.

Its stupid I will say, that they wont accept Tejas, and still do roona dhona that they are falling short in squadrons. Now tell me mate, how on earth IAF will fill numbers with just Rafale in mind and there was an excercize for additional 60?

So now the LCA is a substitute for the Rafale? It never was and never will be. The IAF never refused to induct the LCA, they simply insisted it met their AQSRs which it now does.

The LCA will be in service with 200+ units, the Rafale with 80-120+ (189 perhaps).

Their constant argument was they need this fighter for growing Chinese threat (thats why MOD gave them S400 to shut their mouth).

Utter, utter hogwash my friend. So now road-mobile SAMs are a substitute to long range fighter jets? Please, this is sheer lunacy and no one is proposing this either in the IAF or MoD.

S400 to "shut up" the IAF- that's a new one!

what Modi is doing is right and I support Modi fully in it.

Then when Modi announces how many Rafales are actually coming I hope you will support him still

@PARIKRAMA bro, you are the best guy to comment.

 

[sathya]

My guess

36 initial + 18 optional but conditional For the offsets of 4.5 billion

So 54 @ total cost of 9 billion $

 

[PARIKRAMA]

Practically if we go by what the late September articles on Rafale deal the following points were highlighted.
1. IAF/MOD wants 2 bases of operation
2. Indian weapons integration
3. Numbers changing from 36+18 to officially revealing that IAF wanted 80 flyaway and now latest buzz of 36+44 follow on options
4. Latest being this - A former senior officer of the Indian Air Force told Defenseworld.net correspondent, “It was expected that the price negotiation will take place within the larger construct of a $ 4.5 billion deal. The other issue was maintainability, which was to follow the Mirage 2000 model of 1985, where the HAL was not the desired agency but the Base Repair Depot of the IAF. There are some problems on both those counts.

Lets consider now each of those points
Point 1 - 2 bases of operation versus 1 base of operation
If the 36 are for SFC Nuke Strike purposes only, creating two bases with roughly 2 squadrons within which trainer and spares are fitted seems a bit illogical. I mean if your AF total squadron strength is X, then logically a minimum of 15-20% of X should be designated for a clear cut N Strike role. Even if i consider the lower threshold of 15% then with 42 squadrons earmarked as basic requirement implies a 6.3 squadrons for dedicated SFC. If i argue saying rest of numbers for SFC will be filled by Su30MKI then a question comes whats the efficacy of using a air superiority flanker with largest RCS announcing its arrival and stating i am carrying the nukes to bomb your $h!t away.....
You see thats where the logic stalls... and you see finally the light that yes we need dedicated fleet of advanced birds which can go deep and deliver the N payload safely.. and we need numbers for that.. thats where the 6.3 sqds numbers crop up..

Now rationally, argument of 18 birds at each base not only multiplies the cost which we are least bothered as we are thinking from SFC purposes, it implies that if those birds are taken out, our N payload capability delivery probability via aircrafts gets down to single digits.. (single digits bcz at emergency times certain birds may be fitted just for the sake to deliver and only workhorse to do that is Su30 MKI.. thats why not zero but single digits).
Another risk is if those 2 bases of operations are taken out those 18 rafales each are practically useless...

What i want to state and point out is that the rafales in 2 bases or a single base is like a showroom with glasses showcasing the car model thereby getting attention.. This attention also implies they are high valued targets and taking them out kind of gives a monstrous advantage to any opposition. Still 2 bases are still better than 1 at least..
But will it not be more logical that we have more rafale squadrons and place them scattered and use these 2 bases only as MRO ops earmarked for Rafales... Meaning 2 squadrons there and rest of other squadrons scattered there by increasing the potency and higher chances of survival and ability to deliver the packages from different bases....

Point 2: Indian weapons integration
Astra Mk1 and Mk2 are the prime candidates here.. A useful question is integration is cost intensive and if we are just having 36 dedicated for SFC then why we should carry astra, the basic package of A2G primary N Bomb and A2A secondary config can be very well taken care by Mica and even Derby ER if not the costly Meteor..Unless, again logically these numbers would rise and having say 10-20 BVR missiles a bird for 36 or for a larger number both indicates a cost spiraling which IAF wants to control. Of course commonality in armaments helps maintenance and local production completely Indian would be economical for sure. Now if its 36 only, i would anytime prefer sureshot French Missiles only and buy 360 Meteors only at 10 meteors per bird. Based on individual config they may carry just 2 or more is different but then i am trying to make a sensible analysis. Again thats not the case here.
Most importantly why Astra Mk1/2 discussion now when Mk2 is not even in serial production and live deployment to any other bird. We could have done that 5-7 years later also right.. Wrong. Unless that forms the basis of reducing the costly BVR missile numbers and planning for Indian BVR with a clear view that a larger fleet will carryy all that instead of a dedicated small fleet carrying costly but sure shot proven missiles.

3. Numbers changing from 36+18 to officially revealing that IAF wanted 80 flyaway and now latest buzz of 36+44 follow on options
Now its true that Dassault had geared up for increase in production rate now for just 24 (Egypt)+ 24 (Qatar) +12 Follow on (Qatar) + 40 French AirForce (180 ordered -140 delivered approx = 40) = 100 rafales and increase in production to almost 30 plus birds a year by 2017 means all order obligations fulfilled by 2019 beginning or 2018 late..
So logically Dassault ramping up may not mean much to us but there are 600 small supply chain companies which at times have lead time of 6-12 months for a part supply in the chain of creating rafale. For meeting this 2.5-3 birds a month productivity, there is going to be a substantial investment. So will they invest (the small players i mean 600 in nos) if Dassault had not guaranteed that such a expansion would benefit them surely. Will French government say we will order 150 more rafales domestically so that production line can go non stop for 5 more years before going either kaput or crawl back to 1 bird a month rate with those 600 supply chain companies getting a descent Return On Investments and avoid filing bankruptcy thereby keeping French acquired Rafales on air non stop.
Thus the increase in production gives an intense opportunity to IAF to get quickly the birds with a chance of getting as much as 1 individual squadron a year or more. Thus the logic of 44 options

Now again another logic - 80 birds is approx 4.44 squadrons - 10% of 42 squadrons.. lower spectrum of N dedicated fleet even less than 15% but still better than 36 birds or 4.76% where erosion and risk is much much higher.

Globally an example i can quote when i did my research on a major P5 nation which had maintained 12+ squadrons for dedicated N Strike with an ability to use 33% of its fleet switched to N missions in case of loss/erosion or wiping of dedicated fleet. And which has the capability to deliver 1/3rd of its total N Arsenal Delivery all during Cold war (rest via ballistic missiles).

Thus my assessment is that 36+18 follow on would be like a true blue white elephant.. A trophy wife just for show. All the above points and many more makes me understand that a much higher figure will only make the investment of time, money and efforts genuinely beneficial for the nation.
Mark my words, if its just 36+18 - CAG will break through NDA with enormous loss of credibility for NaMo. This will be just handing over the power to Congress which will see staus quo till it rules the corridors of power. Why CAG? Simple why will a national auditor agree to costly white elephants which are just for display and which does not meet the adequate response unit for even SFC purposes completely?

 

[Abingdonboy]

2. Indian weapons integration

@PARIKRAMA bro, this point alone proves there are going to be more than 36/36+18 Rafales- no airforce in the world would insist on covering the exorbitant charges of integrating a this party weapon on an off the shelf product nor would any OEM (especially not one of Dassault's stature) agree to such lunacy. A number this small would only entitle you to off the shelf products, no bespoke models, no add-ons- as is (like the Egyptian Rafales).

It is all pointing to a BIG Rafale buy.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

Official confirmation and perhaps indication of Hollande visit and rafale signing.

Le Rafale "se rapproche" de son premier contrat en Inde - Challenges.fr

The Rafale "is approaching" its first contract in India

The Rafale "is approaching" its first contract in India, said Tuesday the CEO of Dassault Aviation, Eric Trappier.

The Rafale "is approaching" its first contract in India, assured Tuesday, November 3 CEO of Dassault Aviation, Eric Trappier, receiving the prize of "Industrial of the Year" awarded by the magazine Usine Nouvelle.

"With the India, the most important word, is patience," said EricTrappier.

"I think we approach the goal with a first contract for 36 aircraft. It will lead certainly to others later."

"I am quite optimistic on signing fast enough," he added, estimating that a fourth export contract for the Rafale could be earned next year.

"I think there will be a fourth contract that will materialize next year," he said, warning however that "nothing is as it is not signed." Eric Trappier received the award on the occasion of Audience Industry organized by the magazine.

The French fighter won two contracts this year, its first export sales, with 24 aircraft sold to Egypt earlier this year, and 24 in Qatar. Negotiations are underway since April between the French and Indian governments for the purchase of 36 Rafale.

(With AFP)

@SR-91 @Abingdonboy @Dash @Star Wars @Stephen Cohen

"I think we approach the goal with a first contract for 36 aircraft. It will lead certainly to others later."

This statement means a 100 words.. is nt it?