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Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2]

Rafale Proposal Could Speed Deliveries to India
By Pierre Tran and Vivek Raghuvanshi4:45 p.m. EDT April 11, 2015

PARIS and NEW DELHI — India's surprise request to buy 36 Rafale fighter jets in an off-the-shelf order reflects a pragmatic pursuit that shortcuts a lengthy local build program to more swiftly meet Air Force requirements, analysts said.

"I asked [French president Francois Hollande] to supply us with 36 Rafale jet fighter planes, the ready-to-fly models," Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said April 10 at a joint press conference at the Elysée presidential office, Agence France-Presse reported.

The new deal for 36 will be under a government-to-government contract, the French daily Le Monde reported. Modi announced the plan on the first day of a two-day state visit to France.

That figure of 36 doubles an initial batch of 18 Rafales built in France that prime contractor Dassault Aviation had been due to deliver within India's prospective total order of 126 fighters for $12 billion. The French company has been locked in three years of contract negotiations as New Delhi sought to boost the domestic industrial base with local assembly of 108 units.

Details on price and the total number of Rafales to be bought under the new proposal remain unclear. Indian Ministry of Defence officials were unavailable for comment.

A Reuters report indicated the purchase could be worth about €4 billion (US $4.3 billion).

What this proposal could mean to the talks to buy 126 aircraft is uncertain. Bhim Singh, a retired Indian Air Force wing commander, said the announcement to buy 36 off-the-shelf aircraft instead of 18 could mean renegotiating the entire project.

"France has always been a reliable supplier for India from jet fighters to submarines," Modi said. "We want the terms and conditions to be negotiated on this issue and our civil servants are going to debate these aspects in depth and press ahead with the negotiations."

Hollande said he was "deeply moved" and the partnership between the two countries would shift "into a new gear."

The agreement casts a fresh light on India's approach to arms deals as this purchase will speed up delivery and reflects geopolitical concerns, analysts said.

"This is a good plan as an off-the-shelf purchase bypasses the planned Indian local production and technology transfer, which are taking too long to negotiate," said Hélène Masson, senior research fellow at think tank Fondation de Récherche Stratégique. "Indian industry is not yet ready to start the assembly."

State-owned Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. (HAL) would be the local partner and co-contractor to build the Rafales in India after Dassault had completed delivery of the initial batch built in France.

This is good news for Dassault's production facilities although the company faces the challenge of increasing the output, Masson said.

Dassault can increase Rafale production to a little more than 2.5 units per month compared with the present annual output of 11 - just under one per month - Chairman Eric Trappier said March 11.

France needs export deals for the Rafale as the government plans to cut the annual domestic orders in 2016, so foreign customers are needed to keep the production line open. The family-controlled company in February signed a contract to deliver 24 fighters to Egypt as part of a €5.2 billion (US $5.6 billion) deal also comprising a DCNS FREMM multimission frigate and missiles reported to be from MBDA and Sagem.

Dassault said in a statement it "welcomes [India's] intention to finalize the acquisition of 36 Rafale aircraft at conditions that will allow [it] to meet rapidly the security needs of India."

Dassault is prime contractor, with major partners engine maker Snecma and electronics and radar specialist Thales.

The Indian administration has pushed the "Make in India" policy in a bid to boost domestic industry. But that may be costly and slow, while the regional threat is seen to be rising, an analyst said.

The Indian Air Force is keen to replace its aging fleet of fighters as China is seen as increasingly belligerent, said Robbin Laird of consultancy ICSA, based in Washington and Paris. "There is a challenge in the neighborhood" is an Indian officer's diplomatic way of referring to Beijing.

New Delhi can maintain its independence from China and Russia and maintain its status as a regional power while strengthening links with Paris through the Rafale deal, Laird said. India, which has fought border wars with Pakistan, also sees Islamabad as a local threat.

"The Rafale is a very good aircraft," Laird added. "Dassault has a mature production line and the plane is combat proven. There is no doubt about that."

With a government-to-government deal, France buys the aircraft from Dassault and sells them to India, with Paris guaranteeing the price, he said. That is faster, simpler and more cost effective as local industry is not ready to build the Rafale in India.

Efficient local production takes decades to master and that fails to satisfy the pressing needs of the Air Force, Laird said. "This is a bargain price, this opens the door."

An Indian Air Force official said the service would have preferred licensed production of 108 fighters in India.

Rafale Proposal Could Speed Deliveries to India
 
What about the 30% offset clause for this 36 Rafales?

Well, the details as always will come out only after the PMs foreign trip, when the cloud of PR has vanished, we just can hope that at least this time, there will be some substance to the PR show.

From what we can see from the official statements, the PM has approached the French government directly, bypassing Dassault. That means, he wants 36 fighters from the order of the French forces, that's why they can give a cost reduction below of what Dassault asks for new orders, with the downside, that not industrial benefits can come with the order. No ToT, offsets let alone Make in India (it's btw hilarious to see the confusion in the media, the foreign vendors and even government officials itself, about what this PR slogan actually means :D).

Then there are the claims of Parrikar, about these 36 being of the same standard IAF evaluated, let alone required, which is not correct, since neither is the IRST (that was evaluated back than) in production today, no are these fighters build to IAFs requirements, but to those of the French Forces. So no IRST, HMS, Litening / Israeli PGM's, or METEOR.
Also interesting the claim about getting them in 2 years, without stating if he means from now or after signing a contract with French government. The French order for 2015 / 16 / 17 is for 11 x Rafales each year, so 33 in total and including naval versions. Also after the Egypt deal, most of these 33 will go to them anyway, so to get the 36, France either have to divert some of the already inducted fighters, or extend the F3+ production into 2018. An increase of Dassaults production rate, is only possible if ADDITIONAL orders comes in, apart of those the French government already made, but that's not the case since the French government is selling of their Rafales at lower costs to reach the exports Dassault couldn't get. So unless the French Government orders replacements right away, there is no reason to increase the production rate. Can't wait to see the details of this "deal" in the next few weeks, but possibly close to the US nuclear deal, that was advertised as big and later turned out to be not much at all.

Then there is the issue of the MMRCA itself, which is in a catastrophic stage at the moment, since there is no one voice and no political influence policy anymore. The DM Parrikar is trying to put pressure on Dassault by bringing up the Russian options, which the IAF publically has to refute and the PM now goes abroad and basically takes away any options from Parrikar to negotiate for more benefits, by "virtually" ordering Rafale while admitting that the negotiations are going on. So wrt the actual competition, we still don't know if Dassault has finally agreed to our demands, which however is doubtful, otherwise they would had announced the full deal now and since we now don't have anything to put pressure, we are in the weakest position since 2012. But at least the PM had his moment. :rolleyes:

Wrt numbers, somebody correct me if I missed it, but there is no official Indian or French figure about the impact of this intend to buy 36 on the MMRCA order right? Only the usual media speculations. It could be anything from...

36 + 126 = 162
36 + 108 = 144
36 + 90 =126 as initially required

Logically, the order of 36 is mainly a cost reduction measure for the Government, since they get a lower price tag from the French Government than from Dassault. Which means they could reduce the MMRCA to 90, to reduce the cost of the total order too, while retaining with the original requirement of 126 fighters. The only question is, if that's legally possible under the terms of the tender and what changes that will bring to the offset / ToT side of the tender.

All in all, a lot of hype for nothing really ground breaking. Neither was an actual deal signed, nor is the increase of just a single squadron a major game changer for IAF, if the production line doesn't offer a faster rate and if the issues of the MMRCA tender still are not solved this is nothing but a distraction, that puts India into disadvantage.

@Abingdonboy

Btw, this 36 fighter deal, would be exactly what I said we could do with the EF partner countries! Getting fighters faster directly from the governments, without the industrial side and at lower costs. The difference is only, that there is just 1 Rafale prodution line running, which limits the amount of fighters that can be bought fast. That's why I said that the EF is the fastest choice.
 
Logically, the order of 36 is mainly a cost reduction measure for the Government, since they get a lower price tag from the French Government than from Dassault. Which means they could reduce the MMRCA to 90, to reduce the cost of the total order too, while retaining with the original requirement of 126 fighters. The only question is, if that's legally possible under the terms of the tender and what changes that will bring to the offset / ToT side of the tender.
This was my exact thinking.When looking at the future fleet i can't see place for more 'expensive imported medium class fighter' when considering LCA mk2 will be ready on a decent time frame.It will take atleast one month to sign final contract as many clearance for offset etc are needed.

Let us say we sign this contract soon for $4b and next year we sign the remaining contract worth $12b .How can they pay for both from CAPX of that and subsequent FY?
How can we say its good when considering $2b worth of offset obligations are excused ?
What do we gain from this sudden move ? extra 1 sqd of rafale can be operationalized by 2018. Is it worth ? If the sq decline is so bad, ordering one more LCA sqd was the logical move rite?
 
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High-level meeting in Paris on Monday over Rafale sale to India | Zee News
Last Updated: Sunday, April 12, 2015 - 16:30


Paris/New Delhi: French President Francois Hollande would chair a high-level meeting in Paris on Monday to thrash out the finer details of the nearly USD 5 billion deal for the sale of 36 Rafale jets to India in flyaway conditions.


French sources said the meeting at the Elysee Palace would be held between Hollande, his top officials and executives from Dassault Aviation, the manufacturers of the Rafale jets.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who concluded his four-day visit to France today, had asked France to supply 36 Rafale jets in flyaway conditions as soon as possible in view of the critical operational necessity of the Indian Air Force (IAF).

The deal would be between the two governments.

"There was nobody, either from Indian side or the French side, when the two leaders spoke about the Rafale. Everyone would be briefed in detail on Monday about what transpired and discussions would be held on how it can be taken forward," sources said.

Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar has said that the 36 Rafale fighter jets would be inducted into the IAF in two years.

Sources said that two years is a fair time as a final contract needs to be negotiated and signed while production of planes will also take time.

The capacity of the Dassault plant is 36 aircraft per anum and the Indian version of the aircraft will have to be fine- tuned as per its requirement.

"The French already have an order from Egypt for 24 Rafale jets which has to be also delivered as soon as possible" sources said, pointing out that specific timelines will have to be worked out.

One of the options that is being looked at is putting on hold the order for the French military and diverting them to meet India's immediate requirements.

Another issue that will come up for discussion is the pricing and also if the French government will be providing a tax holiday or some other concession to Dassault to bring down the prices of the aircraft for India.

Modi and Hollande had agreed to conclude an Inter- Governmental Agreement for supply of the aircraft on terms that would be better than conveyed by Dassault Aviation as part of a separate process underway, which is the MMRCA tender.

The delivery would be in time-frame that would be compatible with the operational requirement of IAF and the aircraft and associated systems and weapons would be delivered on the same configuration as had been tested and approved by IAF, and with a longer maintenance responsibility by France, a joint statement had said.

PTI
 
Rafale deal will soon be translated into govt. to govt. agreement: MEA

ANI | Paris
April 12, 2015
Last Updated at 02:45 IST

The Ministry of External Affairs has said the understanding between India and France over the purchase of 36 Rafale fighter jets will soon be translated into a government to government agreement.

"What has been agreed is an understanding and it will be translated into a government to government agreement. For this, the French and the Indian Defence Ministers will sit with their technical officials and their financial people and will work out all the details," MEA official spokesperson Syed Akbaruddin told ANI.

"Now, that there is an agreement in principle, please give some time for the nitty-gritty to be worked out. And once this is worked out by the technical people, these will be certainly made public," he added.


Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is presently on a two-day visit to France, had on Friday ordered 36 "ready-to-fly" French-made Rafale fighter jets.

The 36 Rafale jets are expected to be inducted into the Indian Air Force (IAF) within a span of two years

Rafale deal will soon be translated into govt. to govt. agreement: MEA | Business Standard News
 
Taking The Final Call On What Was Originally Proposed By France On February 20, 2006


Chronology Of The M-MRCA Procurement Saga
* Indian Air Force (IAF) formulates its Air Staff Qualitative Requirement (ASQR) for medium multi-role combat aircraft (M-MRCA) in the late 1990s.
* Request for Information (RFI) for 126 M-MRCAs, with an option for another 63, issued in late 2001.

* Dassault Aviation offers to supply 40 Rafale M-MRCAs to the IAF in a single-source G-to-G deal. The offer is made by Charles Edelstenne, the then CEO of Dassault Aviation, when he calls on the then Minister of State for Defence Rao Inderjit Singh in New Delhi on February 20, 2006. The IAF’s then Deputy Chief of the Air Staff Air Marshal A K Nangalia is also present at this meeting. Edelstenne is part of the entourage of the then visiting French President Jacques Chirac.

*Issuance of a Request for Proposals (RFP) was planned for December 2005. However, the formal 211-page RFP is released only on August 28, 2007. The RFP contains single-stage two-bid system criterion (separate quotes for the technical and for commercial evaluation forming part of the submissions from various concerned OEMs). Bidders are given a time-frame of six months to respond to the RFP by March 2008. The RFP includes a direct industrial offsets obligation of 50%, raised from the original official requirement of 30% as contained in the Ministry of Defence’s (MoD) Defence Procurement Procedures of 2006. The RFP states that the IAF will initially acquire of 86 single-seat and 40 two-seat M-MRCAs, and retain the option to acquire another 63 M-MRCAs at a future date. Of the 126, 12 single-seaters and six tandem-seaters are required to be supplied off-the-shelf in flyaway condition, while the remaining 108 are to be licence-built in India. This will include 74 single-seaters and 34 tandem-seaters, of which 11 will be built from semi-knocked down (SKD) kits, 31 will be built from completely knocked down (CKD) kits, and 66 made from indigenously manufactured kits (IMK).
* By late May 2009, the IAF’sTechnical Evaluation Committee (TEC) concludes itstechnical and staff evaluations of the RFP responses from the six bidders.
*Sequential in-country flight evaluations of all six contenders begin in mid-August 2009 and continue through to May2010.Two teams of IAF test-pilots conduct the flight evaluations at Bengaluru, Leh and Jaisalmer. Besides possessing cold-weather terrain, Leh is a high-altitude location, while Jaisalmer is a desert area where hot winds blow. Planning for the trial schedule began in early 2009, with the IAF test-pilots being trained at the respective bidder’s country of origin to fly the aircraft, under Phase-1. Phase-2 calls for flight-trials in Indian airspace and in Phase-3, the six M-MRCA contenders are run through a series of tests to check the efficacy of their guided-munitions by firing them at firing ranges located within the respective bidder’s country of origin.
Chart.jpg

*All six flightevaluation reports, duly vetted by theTechnical Oversight Committee (TOC),are completed by mid-July 2010.
* In April 2011, the IAF shortlists Dassault Aviation’s Rafale and Eurofighter GmbH’s EF-2000 Typhoon.
Announcement-2.jpg

* On January 31, 2012, the MoD announces that the Rafale has been selected as the IAF’s new-generation M-MRCA and estimates that contractual negotiations should be completed by October 2012 by the MoD’sCommercial Negotiations Committee (CNC) after receiving approvals from the Competent Financial Authority (CFA).
Announcement.jpg

* On April 10, 2015, the Govt of India formally requests both the French government and Dassault Aviation to supply on a G-to-G basis 36 Rafales (32 single-seaters and four tandem-seaters) as soon as possible, subject to contract negotiations for these 34 Rafales being successfully concluded within a 90-day period. Concurrently, supplementary contracts will be inked with SNECMA Moteurs for two spare M88 turbofans, with Dassault Aviation for ground-support hardware for first- and second-line MRO, with THALES for a cockpit procedures trainer and a full-flight tactical training simulator, with MBDA for the guided-weapons package, and with Dassault Aviation for a maintenance training simulator.

Eventually, in the fullness of time, the IAF will end up with 189 Rafale M-MRCAs. That's a given. But the negotiations had got stuck over the cost of licenced-production of the 108 units. India was haggling over the labour cost parameters that are graded from 1 to 10. While the Russians had obtained Grade 6 for the Su-30MKI licenced-production programme, the French were asking for 8, while the Indians wanted it to be limited to 7. So, in the end, a compromise was struck under which India would order 36 Rafales off-the-shelf without any offsets of any kind and the French in turn would tone down their stance & come down to 7. Therefore, in nett terms, the French have won and India’s illogical negotiating shortsightedness (from 2012 till now) has been fully exposed. And NaMo too has realised at last that there are clear technological and human resource limits to how far the ‘Make in India’ mantra can be flogged. And this deal for 36 Rafales was conceived entirely by Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley and was fully endorsed by the PMO. Everyone else was in the dark on this issue. If 153 Rafales can be similarly ordered in successive tranches, then that will be the ideal solution. Because paying an exorbitant price for the so-called licenced-production of Rafales just to keep a few thousand employees of HAL gainfully employed for the next 20 years DOES NOT stand up to logic. Nor does such licenced-produiction lead to self-reliance of any kind anywhere. Far better therefore to utilize the money saved for the Tejas Mk2/LCA (Navy) Mk2 R & D effort, where at least 80% indigenisation can be expected in all domains except for the propulsion system.

TRISHUL: Taking The Final Call On What Was Originally Proposed By France On February 20, 2006
 

Let's see:



The Ministry of External Affairs has said the
understanding (only an understanding?) between India and France over the purchase of 36 Rafale fighter jets will soon (whenever Indians say 'Will Soon"- it will be 15 years +... ) be translated into a government to government agreement.

"What has been agreed is an understanding and it will be translated into a government to government agreement. For this, the French and the Indian Defence Ministers will sit with their technical officials and their financial people and will work out all the details (great! as if Indians were good at details) ," MEA official spokesperson Syed Akbaruddin told ANI.

"Now, that there is an agreement in principle ( in principle?! :lol:) , please give some time for the nitty-gritty to be worked out ( I saw these words millions of times here from the Indians, few are positive though) . And once this is worked out (oke, think 15 years plus) by the technical people, these will be (what Indians can do without "will"? :hitwall: ) certainly made public," he added.



Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is presently on a two-day visit to France, had on Friday ordered 36 "ready-to-fly" French-made Rafale fighter jets.

The 36 Rafale jets are expected to be inducted into the Indian Air Force (IAF) within a span of two years (2 years or 20? it's quite hilarious :lol: )
 
Let's see:



The Ministry of External Affairs has said the
understanding (only an understanding?) between India and France over the purchase of 36 Rafale fighter jets will soon (whenever Indians say 'Will Soon"- it will be 15 years +... ) be translated into a government to government agreement.

"What has been agreed is an understanding and it will be translated into a government to government agreement. For this, the French and the Indian Defence Ministers will sit with their technical officials and their financial people and will work out all the details (great! as if Indians were good at details) ," MEA official spokesperson Syed Akbaruddin told ANI.

"Now, that there is an agreement in principle ( in principle?! :lol:) , please give some time for the nitty-gritty to be worked out ( I saw these words millions of times here from the Indians, few are positive though) . And once this is worked out (oke, think 15 years plus) by the technical people, these will be (what Indians can do without "will"? :hitwall: ) certainly made public," he added.



Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is presently on a two-day visit to France, had on Friday ordered 36 "ready-to-fly" French-made Rafale fighter jets.

The 36 Rafale jets are expected to be inducted into the Indian Air Force (IAF) within a span of two years (2 years or 20? it's quite hilarious :lol: )
nice blue and red lines...

It is Modi govt ....dont you worry....
even French were surprised by Modi's demand for 36 extra Rafale....since they were not knowing about it
 
The Rafale conundrum: Lessons to be learnt

Arun.jpg
By Admiral Arun Prakash (Retd)

The Indian decision to purchase 36 Rafale multi-role jet fighters from France in 'fly-away' condition will no doubt redress a critical inventory gap for the Indian Air Force (IAF) but it may turn out to be a Pyrrhic victory for French aerospace giant Dassault Aviation rather than the 'coup' it is being made out to be. This is a complex issue, with serious implications for India's security and cannot be viewed in simplistic win-lose terms.

Aircraft attrition, obsolescence and declining numbers constitute a triple spectre that haunts every air chief, making him ask for more. The IAF's problem has been aggravated by the fact that a significant proportion of its combat strength consisted of the Soviet-era MiG-21s ,of which about 850 were licence-produced by HAL (Hindustan Aeronautics Limited). Its planned indigenous replacement, the Tejas Light Combat Aircraft, promised by the DRDO (Defence Research and Development Organization) by the early 1990s, has come 25 years late and is too little, too late.

Dwindling numbers, coupled with the operational challenge posed by rapidly modernising air forces of neighbouring China and Pakistan, led the IAF to decide that a quick-fix for its problems was to induct additional numbers of the French Mirage-2000. This aircraft had an excellent record in IAF service and Vayu Bhavan, the air headquarters, felt that it could become the future medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA) not only bridging the gap between the Su-30 and the Tejas but also compensating for the eventual de-induction of the MiG-21s.


However, the Indian Ministry of Defence (MoD) was aware that Dassault was on the verge of closing down the Mirage-2000 production-line and switching to the more advanced Mirage-2000-5 version, a substantially different machine. Refusing to treat the IAF proposal as a repeat order, the MoD insisted that a fresh staff requirement be drawn up and followed with a "request for proposals" (RFP).

Once responses to the RFP were examined, the IAF wasted no time in initiating a rigorous evaluation process in which each of the six competing aircraft were assessed over the full range of maintenance and operational criteria laid down in the staff requirement.

However, the IAF had rendered an already complex process even more problematic by casting its net too wide. The six aircraft, short-listed for evaluation, fell into conspicuously different categories of vintage, weight, sophistication and cost, making it truly a contentious contest between apples and oranges.

More than a decade after initiation of the MMRCA proposal, the MoD declared in January 2012 that the Rafale had been selected for induction into the IAF. A letter of intent for acquisition of 126 aircraft was issued to Dassault Aviation - with 18 to be built in France and the rest to be assembled and manufactured by in India by HAL. Contract negotiations commenced soon after, with the programme costs being estimated at between $12-15 billion.

Although there has been no official pronouncement, in the 27 months since the conclusion of the MMRCA competition, negotiations appeared to be deadlocked with no contract in sight. Media speculation has focused on Dassault's lack of confidence in the ability of HAL to attain requisite aviation manufacturing standards. The direct implications are that Dassault will not stand guarantee for HAL-produced Rafales and there will be significant cost escalations with figures of $22-30 billion being mentioned.

Given HAL's dismal track record of poor quality control in every product it has delivered to the three Services, Dassault's reservations are understandable. However, this issue should have been addressed by the French company before it submitted its bid and not at the stage of contract negotiations. This appears to be almost a replay of the serious problems faced by the MoD in the Scorpene submarine project. It that latter case, M/S Thales of France invoked some fine print in the contract after it had been signed in good faith, leading to huge time delays and cost overruns. Obviously, there is need for caution when dealing with French firms.

The hiatus in conclusion of the Rafale contract has led to conjecture in the media, perhaps fuelled by losers in the MMRCA competition. Apart from picking holes in the Rafale, some commentators have castigated the IAF for a flawed force-planning process, focusing on three issues: the high cost of the Rafale, especially when compared to the 'formidable' Sukhoi-30 MK, which awaits further upgradation, with dire prediction that the hidden costs of the Rafale project could bankrupt future defence budgets; the 'operational niche' into which the IAF intends to place the Rafale seems odd, given that it has the Sukhoi-30 and Tejas at the 'heavy' and 'light' ends of the combat spectrum with the Indo-Russian 5th generation aircraft (PAK-FA) on the horizon; and aggravation of the IAF's logistical nightmare when an 8th type is added to its existing inventory of seven combat aircraft of Russian, British, French, and Indian origin.

Some of the observations merit the IAF's consideration. However, all is not monochromatic and four points deserve objective review. The egregious failure of the DRDO and India's defence industrial complex to meet the operational needs of the IAF is matched only by the detachment shown by the latter towards the indigenous aeronautics industry.

Had the IAF assumed positive "ownership" of aircraft projects, starting with the HT-2 trainer and the HF-24 Marut fighter, it may not have had to seek a basic trainer, an advanced trainer and a MMRCA aircraft from abroad today. Even at this late stage a Directorate of Aircraft Design in Air HQ would help create a symbiotic linkage between the Air Staff and India's aerospace industry.

The persistent clamour for aircraft numbers or squadrons sounds convincing when cited in the context of a 'two-front' war. However, these numbers were stipulated in an era when two squadrons of MiG-21s could have been bought for the price of a single Rafale today. Conversely, the versatile capabilities and the invulnerability of a modern multi-role combat aircraft make it the equivalent of a dozen or more of its predecessors. The emphasis now must shift from dumb numbers to smart capability.

There is food for thought in the fact that against the IAF's strength of 750-800 combat aircraft, the Royal Air Force and the French Air Forc, undertake world-wide commitments with just 225 aircraft of two types each -- the FAF with the Rafale and Mirage-2000 and the RAF with Tornadoes and Typhoons.

The above comparison is not really fair to the IAF since most of its inventory is of foreign origin. There is no guarantee, whatsoever, of how many aircraft will be available for combat on any day, given that the non-availability of even a small imported component can instantly ground an aircraft fleet. Here it must be noted that the Russian system has, despite repeated promises of reform, been the worst culprit for the past 25 years and its abysmal product-support has debilitated all three Services.

The fifth generation fighter aircraft (FGFA) or PAK-FA, being touted as an Indo-Russian joint project, is yet another example of rank bad faith on Russia's part. Based on a Russian pledge that they would share the design, engineering, testing and intellectual property in a 50-50 proportion, India was asked to contribute US $300 million, up-front, and 35 percent of the $15 billion project cost eventually. While details are under wraps, currently three prototype PAK-FAs are already flying in Russia with no Indian participation or contribution. This project promises to become a clone of the BrahMos; a Russian product that carries an ersatz Indo-Russian trademark.

Eyebrows may be raised as to why a major announcement regarding outright purchase of 36 French-built Rafales should have been made in Paris rather than New Delhi. It is understood that the critical capability gap of the IAF compelled this expedient decision and to that extent it is to be cautiously welcomed.

However, delivering 36 Rafales to the IAF in two years is only possible if some aircraft are withdrawn from French service and refurbished, as was done in the case of British supplied Jaguars in 1978-79. This development reflects French politico-commercial compulsions and perhaps Modi's persuasive skills.

If this is just a modification of the original MMRCA deal to expedite deliveries, it will further complicate the already complex negotiations and render a severe blow to the 'Make in India' campaign as well as the MoD's 'Defence Offsets' initiative. Presumably the whole contract will need to be re-drafted and re-negotiated.

However, if it is a change of heart on India's part, it may constitute a good all-round compromise. While partially satisfying French commercial interests, it permits India an honourable exit from the Rafale commitment; allowing it to review other options. The IAF, too, can look forward to an early boost for its combat capability, without being saddled with a crippling financial liability.

However, India will keep encountering such conundrums unless the politician acquires comprehension of complex security issues and installs a professionally competent organization for acquisition of military hardware in MoD.

(12.04.2015 - Admiral Prakash is a former Naval Chief and a decorated fighter pilot. He was awarded the Vir Chakra in the 1971 operations when he was part of an IAF squadron. The views expressed are personal. He can be contacted at arunp2810@yahoo.com)

IANS, 12 April 2015

The Rafale conundrum: Lessons to be learnt
 
This was my exact thinking.When looking at the future fleet i can't see place for more 'expensive imported medium class fighter' when considering LCA mk2 will be ready on a decent time frame.It will take atleast one month to sign final contract as many clearance for offset etc are needed.

LCA MK2 is neither developed yet, not do we know when it actually can be produced, but we do know that it's nowhere near the capability of an MMRCA, so there is no relation to MMRCA orders and LCA. The limiting factor on the other hand is the 3 years delay that we now have thanks to Dassault, because it now will be produced at the same time as FGFA will be produced too and any follow order would compete with additional FGFA, maybe even AMCA orders. Even if we sign the contract now, the production of 108 in India will go on till 2025 or beyond, so IAF hardly will opt for more LCAs or Rafales by then, when they can move on with NG fighters and drones.

How can we say its good when considering $2b worth of offset obligations are excused ?
What do we gain from this sudden move ? extra 1 sqd of rafale can be operationalized by 2018. Is it worth ?

We lose on the industrial side, while the MoD gains on the cost side and if IAF's gain is very limited (3 squads till 2020 vs 2 according the earlier plans).
 
Logically, the order of 36 is mainly a cost reduction measure for the Government, since they get a lower price tag from the French Government than from Dassault. Which means they could reduce the MMRCA to 90, to reduce the cost of the total order too, while retaining with the original requirement of 126 fighters. The only question is, if that's legally possible under the terms of the tender and what changes that will bring to the offset / ToT side of the tender.

This seems a government to government deal by what is being said by the MEA and therefore outside of the MMRCA contract. So its contours are unaffected by any stipulations in the original requirements. What this means for the wider contract is completely unclear. Unless Dassault comes up with a better offer, it is probably likely that the larger contract will disappear though there might be some additions to the number of 36 through a direct government to government deal.
 

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