Blue Marlin
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indeed there is nothing left but the final hurdle, the french have done their part and its upto the indians to do theirs and sign on the dotted line. he french election may push the hollande to bend a bit more and get a bit to show for.It should be like that but it is likely not happening this deal around.
Primo, when a deal is pulling a bigger one, things get complicated.
Secundo, the deal has indeed already reached the stage where not much
can change less the parties end up truly disagreeing and talks break up.
The noise about savings is mostly aimed at the internal market of Indians
so they can get their fix of how great negotiators they believe they are and
also to put MP in a favorable light.
Tertio and that is the variable that I trust you were looking for, the internal
politics of France have now taken over on our end. With the elections coming
in the Spring, Hollande will be very interested in signing and considering how
low his popularity / chances of reelection are, it may push over the edge ( AKA
make him say yes where he should hold fast ) if he deems the resulting news
useful or necessary.
And since this is a govt to govt deal ( where Dassault is but a contractor ), he could.
Honestly, this is a weapon for the Indian side but one with an expiration date.
Once the elections have come and gone, the winners will have different views.
In the least likely scenario, Président Le Pen amy balk at signing altogether.
If, just as unlikely, the Gauche /LEFT remains in power, the French team will have
reached the point you described.
And in the most likely possibility of a Classic Right majority, it will depend on their
leader and the team that forms around him. It could go either way but the pressure
to sign will be significantly lessened with only the strategic partnership keeping it up.
Another potential client decided to wait for 2017 a few months back and they're just
as shrewd as the Indians. And a quick reaction in the most likely case would be ...
well, most likely! It could set the Indian order down to fourth place.
That's your context.
Great day to you and yours, Tay.
who the mystery client