Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2]

[jha]

Exactly, just as a threat to canel the whole tender, but that's a cheap threat, since everybody knows that IAF will never go for more MKIs to make itself more dependent on Russia, nor that IAF want more heavy class fighters, with 200+ FGFA on the list anyway. So that's a a pretty silly bluff and the only chance to actually put pressure on Dassault is the EF.

.

Not an empty threat or, cheap trick. This is being seriously considered as Russians have offered a very good deal. IAF is most probably on board. France has really not understood the difference in approach of new govt. If accepted, it will result in faster induction of much cheaper planes. EF is out.

I never said that India will be excluded, but that Dassault is focusing only on French requirements and not on joint requirements and seeing us as a partner. They might offer us joint production of parts developed mainly for the French forces, but does that help our requirements? We probably will see a more customized Rafale for India, based on the upgrades Dassault develops for France.

Exactly... We are excluded for Now. They "might" sell us the whole Production line for Rafale in future. "Might" is the key word here and when dealing with France, this "might" becomes even more important. I would rather not trust their empty promises. Their record is rather dismal and leaves a lot to be desired.

 

[CONNAN]

Rafale M11 , in operational configuration (real GBU), releasing flares

 

[IrbiS]

 

[PARIKRAMA]

A critical question is how much hit Indian Image will take in case Rafale deals falls apart? If MOD says high cost was the reason or says reluctance of Dassault for owing HAL produced bird's responsibility or both would mean a slugfest of charges and counter charges with possible litigation (extreme case). Another would be Indian contratcs uptill signing would be viewed as Window Shopping rather than being serious.

The fact is its a big loss for both sides if the deal fall apart...Let us analyse few finer ponts and perspectives

Indian Replacement options: for rafales
1. Order additional MKIs -

• Cost Rs 384 Cr per bird at current configuration. Upgradation of radar, BVR Missile, Brahmos Integration should push the cost in the range of 450-500 Cr per bird.
• AESA radar is costly and would mean major changes in power distribution and circuitary levels. Its not a plug and play system and would need a intrinsic overhaul.
• If we want stabler engine performance and quick replacement that would need large chunk of engine and spares being purchased.
• A creation of another overhaul center other than Nashik to ensure more quicker turnaround.
• Fastracking of Astra MK2 and Brahmos M testing time table and possibly range
• Manpower Management with pilots being trained and availability
• New Heads on Display helmets and newer tech assimilation from Israeli would need concurrence from Russia so expect few niggles in that

2. LCA MK2

• Envisioned on paper. Needs fast tracking in war footing priority
• Critical Engine tech is American. Would mean dependency and possibly geo political reluctance/ stances issues. Unless the whole line is bought by India - highly unlikely as cost would be huge but that gives a fresh life to reverse engineer and make it more evolved.
• The orders of 84 MK2 then needs to be moved to closer to 150 that requires commitment from IAF and performance from MK2. As of now both are uncertain as bird is on paper.
• Lack of outside consultants as Snecma wont like to partner for some time (bcz of rafale fall out)
• 4th gen or max 4.5th gen with assimilation of tech from India/russia/Israel/US.
• A superior product then MK1 surely but all depend upon the time frame of this project

3. FGFA

• On paper as of now as contract not signed but Russian T50 tested and would get 50 birds in next 5 years in their airforce. Indian FGFA program a bit unclear
• Heavy CLass Fighter
• 127 numbers envisioned. A lack of option may propel it higher but its gonna escalate cost of operation (surely higher than MKI)
• Program time frame meeting would need war footing focus.
• Without Rafale would means Russian stand a chance to squeeze us with lack of options.
• Unknown engine as new engine would be tested soon. Hope its superiority is beyond TVC which Russian are more famous for and less maintenance intensive as MKIs with fewer problems and longer life

Lets look into 2 more angles
IAF issues

• Critical shortage in squadron numbers with mandatory retirement of vintage fighters and either definite upgradation of legacy systems (mid life upgrades) or else retiring them outright.
• Jaguar Darin III Upgrade becomes critical but then again it cannot postpone retirement beyond 2028-30 time frame. Its a costly upgrade again.
• IAF would be top heavy FGFA 127 MKI 350 means heavy config - close to 500 vs Low config LCA MK1 - around 60-100 and LCA MK2 150-200 (excluding the retired birds and rough indication of major birds numbers) - Hig "IF" nos for Low end (MK1 and MK2 ~300)
• Lack of Medium Class fighter till 2025 as MK2 would take time to mature into a competitve bird
• AMCA project would mean shifting focus from MK2 so AMCA would either be shelved or delayed
• Uptill 2030 or uptill MK2 production is closer to 100 birds, IAF would feel a bit squeezed and less comfortable

MOD/Indian Government

• Nagging IAF telling on face about critical shortage of squadrons
• LCA MK2 is NO RAFALE even in the year 2030. The years of flying Rafale and experienced gained cannot be squeezed into LCA MK2 in 15 years till 2030
• The war footing priority would mean extended focus on HAL and DRDO to make India self sufficient. Again that would mean higher efficiency and change in approach at management and cadre level.
• Risk of not seriously viewed as buyers but rather window shopper
• Possibly loss or lowering of trust in Indo French relation meaning a partner and a friend who sided with us even after Pokhran 2 may not outrightly support us for everything.
• Indo Russia and Indo US relation would be at logger head. - Hot engine tech from USA and over dependecy on GE 414 for LCMK2 would mean we have to at times support USA postures leaving us with less diplomatic freedom. the more closness would also mean higher anxiety with Russia and straight forward better Russia-Pak military relationship
• A possible change in Regime (read INC instead of BJP) may lead to either slowdown in decision making or grinding halt to urgency in priortised program thereby jeopardizing the national interests. HAL/DRDO are not having performance bonds nor are penalised for delays.
• Delay in meeting timelines, cost over runs and quick replacement via foreign parts would mean less than envisioned indigenous capability and less maturity of critical technology capability assimilation among defence industry

The risk seems to outrun in case of collapse of rafale deal according to my analysis.Pls add more points to each of the heads and let us then conclude whats the best solution- either the rafale deal or whats their without rafale. Let us have more concrete debate on these lines.

 

[Barmaley]

So how many of Su-30MKI India needs If the Rafale deal will not be signed?

 

[sancho]

Not an empty threat or, cheap trick. This is being seriously considered as Russians have offered a very good deal.

If there would had been such a proposal or even any serious considerations of the Indian side, the news would had came out after the visit of Putin and not just now all of the sudden, with the remark on Dassault and Rafale. Especially the Russian side had boasted about it in the media, but nothing of that sort happened right?
On the other side the DM even confirmed talks with Dassault are going on after the visit of his French counterpart and IAF is on record that they don't want the overdependance on Russia and aiming for a medium class fighter.

France has really not understood the difference in approach of new govt. If accepted, it will result in faster induction of much cheaper planes. EF is out.

Actually the new government is on the same line as the former and IAF, by strictly pointing on HAL being the prime interrogator and the EF is not out, since it never was rejected from the competition.

Exactly... We are excluded for Now. They "might" sell us the whole Production line for Rafale in future. "Might" is the key word here and when dealing with France, this "might" becomes even more important. I would rather not trust their empty promises. Their record is rather dismal and leaves a lot to be desired.

I can understand the frustration and even I am warning since 2013 that Dassault is risking the deal and it got more and more evident over time. But the fact however remains, that the fighter still is capable and the technical / industrial offer still will be very good (keep in mind that the DM confirmed that ToT is complying to our demands) and especially the latter is a crucial point, since neither LCA nor MKI can offer us new ToT and offset to boost the industry, that's why it needs to be an M-MRCA that we have to procure, be it the EF or Rafale.
The sad thing is, that Dassault is not seeing the potential for Rafale, with India as a proper partner. Not only that joint developments had improved the fighter far more, but it had helped French forces to get what they wanted, it had increased the export potential by adding capabilities and reduced the overall costs. Sagem alone would had benefitted so much, if India could had been a partner for AASM or MICA upgrades, that could had been integrated on other Indian fighters too. Now they face the stop of AASM production line and a very bleak future potential for MICA NG, since even if Rafale will be exported, most customers will take METEOR as the prime EM missiles, leaving only MICA IR as interesting in low numbers.

A critical question is how much hit Indian Image will take in case Rafale deals falls apart?

What image? We already are seen as a no country with low reliability and efficiency in the procurement of arms. We issue tenders, scrap them and re issue them again and again. This is just the icing of the cake, if we would not get to select one of the M-MRCA's

 

[Echo_419]

If there would had been such a proposal or even any serious considerations of the Indian side, the news would had came out after the visit of Putin and not just now all of the sudden, with the remark on Dassault and Rafale. Especially the Russian side had boasted about it in the media, but nothing of that sort happened right?
On the other side the DM even confirmed talks with Dassault are going on after the visit of his French counterpart and IAF is on record that they don't want the overdependance on Russia and aiming for a medium class fighter.



Actually the new government is on the same line as the former and IAF, by strictly pointing on HAL being the prime interrogator and the EF is not out, since it never was rejected from the competition.



I can understand the frustration and even I am warning since 2013 that Dassault is risking the deal and it got more and more evident over time. But the fact however remains, that the fighter still is capable and the technical / industrial offer still will be very good (keep in mind that the DM confirmed that ToT is complying to our demands) and especially the latter is a crucial point, since neither LCA nor MKI can offer us new ToT and offset to boost the industry, that's why it needs to be an M-MRCA that we have to procure, be it the EF or Rafale.
The sad thing is, that Dassault is not seeing the potential for Rafale, with India as a proper partner. Not only that joint developments had improved the fighter far more, but it had helped French forces to get what they wanted, it had increased the export potential by adding capabilities and reduced the overall costs. Sagem alone would had benefitted so much, if India could had been a partner for AASM or MICA upgrades, that could had been integrated on other Indian fighters too. Now they face the stop of AASM production line and a very bleak future potential for MICA NG, since even if Rafale will be exported, most customers will take METEOR as the prime EM missiles, leaving only MICA IR as interesting in low numbers.



What image? We already are seen as a no country with low reliability and efficiency in the procurement of arms. We issue tenders, scrap them and re issue them again and again. This is just the icing of the cake, if we would not get to select one of the M-MRCA's

MMRCA is very important but we must make it clear to the a French
Comply with our demands or Go Fook yourselves

 

[sancho]

MMRCA is very important but we must make it clear to the a French
Comply with our demands or Go Fook yourselves

Please lets not go over board because of the valid frustration with Dassault! We shouldn't generalise nor be offending because of this issue.

 

[SQ8]

Please lets not go over board because of the valid frustration with Dassault! We shouldn't generalise nor be offending because of this issue.

To put it as "leniently" as possible. This is essentially a deadlock between an expensive vendor and a thrifty buyer. It was always going to a be a haggle.

 

[Donatello]

So if deal is signed in 2015, first squadron jet don't arrive until 2018?
Hmm......the program extends well into 2025 then.

 

[Hindustani78]

Mirage 2000 emptyweight - 7500Kg
Gripen E - 8000Kg
F16 Block 52 - 9200Kg
Rafale - 9500Kg
F16 IN - with AESA, IRST, CFTs with refuelling probe..., around 9900Kg



Because it's not a medium class fighter.

Indian Airforce Delegationhas gone to Czech for The Gripens in November

 

[sancho]

To put it as "leniently" as possible. This is essentially a deadlock between an expensive vendor and a thrifty buyer. It was always going to a be a haggle.

That would be the case, if the costs are the prime issue, but that's not the point, since the DM precisely stated that Dassault is not complying to IAFs / MoDs demands on workshare and responsibility. These things however were known for years and it's rather disappointing that Dassault is delaying and risking things to such an extend.

Indian Airforce Delegationhas gone to Czech for The Gripens in November

It was more a good will visit to the Czech counterparts and not for the fighter since they have only Gripen C/Ds and the Gripen was rejected from the M-MRCA.

 

[Stephen Cohen]

To put it as "leniently" as possible. This is essentially a deadlock between an expensive vendor and a thrifty buyer. It was always going to a be a haggle.

It is NOT about the money ie there is no haggling over price

It is about responsibility ; if Dassault does not take FULL responsibility
then the whole programme comes to a halt with the first problem in a
Made in India - Rafale

And Dassault can take care of QA/ QC issues with
proper transfer of know how and technology to India

Then we will be able to make perfect planes

BUT Dassault is worried about HAL 's abilities and WE are worried that
Dassault will wash off its hands once HAL starts manufacturing planes in India

 

[SQ8]

Lets look into 2 more angles
IAF issues

• Critical shortage in squadron numbers with mandatory retirement of vintage fighters and either definite upgradation of legacy systems (mid life upgrades) or else retiring them outright.
• Jaguar Darin III Upgrade becomes critical but then again it cannot postpone retirement beyond 2028-30 time frame. Its a costly upgrade again.
• IAF would be top heavy FGFA 127 MKI 350 means heavy config - close to 500 vs Low config LCA MK1 - around 60-100 and LCA MK2 150-200 (excluding the retired birds and rough indication of major birds numbers) - Hig "IF" nos for Low end (MK1 and MK2 ~300)
• Lack of Medium Class fighter till 2025 as MK2 would take time to mature into a competitve bird
• AMCA project would mean shifting focus from MK2 so AMCA would either be shelved or delayed
• Uptill 2030 or uptill MK2 production is closer to 100 birds, IAF would feel a bit squeezed and less comfortable

MOD/Indian Government

• Nagging IAF telling on face about critical shortage of squadrons
• LCA MK2 is NO RAFALE even in the year 2030. The years of flying Rafale and experienced gained cannot be squeezed into LCA MK2 in 15 years till 2030
• The war footing priority would mean extended focus on HAL and DRDO to make India self sufficient. Again that would mean higher efficiency and change in approach at management and cadre level.
• Risk of not seriously viewed as buyers but rather window shopper
• Possibly loss or lowering of trust in Indo French relation meaning a partner and a friend who sided with us even after Pokhran 2 may not outrightly support us for everything.
• Indo Russia and Indo US relation would be at logger head. - Hot engine tech from USA and over dependecy on GE 414 for LCMK2 would mean we have to at times support USA postures leaving us with less diplomatic freedom. the more closness would also mean higher anxiety with Russia and straight forward better Russia-Pak military relationship
• A possible change in Regime (read INC instead of BJP) may lead to either slowdown in decision making or grinding halt to urgency in priortised program thereby jeopardizing the national interests. HAL/DRDO are not having performance bonds nor are penalised for delays.
• Delay in meeting timelines, cost over runs and quick replacement via foreign parts would mean less than envisioned indigenous capability and less maturity of critical technology capability assimilation among defence industry

The risk seems to outrun in case of collapse of rafale deal according to my analysis.Pls add more points to each of the heads and let us then conclude whats the best solution- either the rafale deal or whats their without rafale. Let us have more concrete debate on these lines.

There is a middle way but time is of the essence. The IAF can put down a bid for UAE's Mirage-2000s along with those from Qatar.. there are additional Mirage airframes available in France itself. The French will haggle on the costs but a simple arm twist on the Scorpenes along with temptations on the Eurocopter bids for Helicopter projects might get some concessions. To further the deal along, the Rafale can still be proposed for the IACs which will keep the French interested.

As a result the IAF will still get a good 110 Medium Strike jets which when coupled with its 60 odd Mig-29 UPGs will provide a good medium fleet till the AMCA project comes online.

It is NOT about the money ie there is no haggling over price

It is about responsibility ; if Dassault does not take FULL responsibility
then the whole programme comes to a halt with the first problem in a
Made in India - Rafale

And Dassault can take care of QA/ QC issues with
proper transfer of know how and technology to India

Then we will be able to make perfect planes

BUT Dassault is worried about HAL 's abilities and WE are worried that
Dassault will wash off its hands once HAL starts manufacturing planes in India

And what happens if the party whose responsibility it is has a problem? They end up paying.. hence costs.

 

[surya kiran]

There is a middle way but time is of the essence. The IAF can put down a bid for UAE's Mirage-2000s along with those from Qatar.. there are additional Mirage airframes available in France itself. The French will haggle on the costs but a simple arm twist on the Scorpenes along with temptations on the Eurocopter bids for Helicopter projects might get some concessions. To further the deal along, the Rafale can still be proposed for the IACs which will keep the French interested.

As a result the IAF will still get a good 110 Medium Strike jets which when coupled with its 60 odd Mig-29 UPGs will provide a good medium fleet till the AMCA project comes online.



And what happens if the party whose responsibility it is has a problem? They end up paying.. hence costs.

The problem arises in not having a time frame to close negotiations. Had this been the case, we would have initiated talks with the EF consortium. The danger arising now, as you pointed out, is of time. If we start negotiating with EF in mid 2015, then you are looking at closing negotiations in mid 2016. And then delivery of the squadrons gets even more delayed and closer to an optimistic LCA Mk2 deadline.