But here is the downward risk - Our light category becomes US dependent fully.. and it kills everything from Tejas future to LSA to anything else in Light category..
If the second line does happen, I doubt it will be much more than 126 at best.
Every year, China will surprise the NSA, and every year the IAF will get higher priority, and every year the IAF's requirements will only increase. Eventually, the IAF will be tasked with getting the best jets possible, be it the Rafale or LSA. This second MMRCA will obviously become an afterthought.
Earlier, Boeing and Saab wanted IAF to buy 200 or more of their jets. Now, Boeing seems to have come down to "please buy 150 at least" while MoD has said the contract is only for 90. None of these competitors have the premium advantage of being the Rafale.
If you ask me only Gripen is capable of matching up to the industrial production requirements. They have designed their production cycle around small numbers right now. Just 60 for Sweden, 36 for Brazil and 90 for IAF. And I think only Gripen has any chance for export.
If F 16 s are coming ; we must get the LATEST
And they must have AESA ; AIM 9 X ; AIM 120 D ; and the best EW suite
If F 16 s are coming ; we must get the LATEST version
And they must have AESA ; AIM 9 X ; AIM 120 D ; and the best EW suite available
Oh, God no. The Aim-9X and Aim-120D are obsolete.
Better options are the ASRAAM/Python V and I-Derby ER combo. And stick the latest AESA based EW suite from the LCA program into it. The LCA's EW suite is far better than the obsolete monkey model EW they have on their F-16s. If possible, it would be even better if we replace the American AESA with the Israeli 2052. The Israelis found their 2052 to be better than what's going into the F-35. And of course, replace all their comm/IFF/datalink equipment with Indian/Israeli equipment.
At least the radar, comm and EW suite will be sensor fused if this happens. Basically, it will be a new aircraft.
This F-16 version may still not be as good as Rafale, but it will be way better than whatever they are peddling to us right now.