@randomradio..
At least we agree on one thing till now that IAF needs about 20-22 sqn of jets by 2027...and IN need about 6-7 sqn by 2027. So total of 26-29 jets...
Now what IAF is getting is about 2su30, 6 LCA, 2 rafale +1 FGFA.. 11 sqn..
IAF needs about minimum 9-11 sqn by 2027... That is about 200 jets.
IN too needs about 120 odd jets by 2027.. I am saying its NLCA (2sqn) plus 24-32 order of MIG29.. Leavin g requirement of 2-3 sqn that about 50-60 planes..
A total of 260 jets. Max by 2027.
Now that point is from where IAF can get this... U are saying second MRCA of F18/ gripen.. This is in addition to a rafale prod line in India.
Also u are saying being and gripen will be cheaper than rafale...
Mate, few things u have missed in this calculation
1. A new type of plane in MII means investment of few billion dollars to make it.. I read somewhere in this forum that boieng asked for minimum order of 200 planes to make it economical viable to MII.. Or else cost of each plane will increase.
2. Cost of base infrastructure creation... Dassult asking for 1.4 billion dollar for one base for rafale and already two bases are created in present order. In your view point of second MRCA of 126 fighters, we need creation of infrastructure on minimum 03 bases...that means an investment of 4.2 billion dollars.
3. Cost of training/spares and logistics. 1-1.5 billion for 36 planes in rafale pricing. So what is it for new variety of 126 planes.. Training will be more. Spares may cost same even if we order more rafale.
4. Also you were saying gripen NG is better and u also contradict that IAF won't buy single engine after 2027 while countering my argument for LCA so u think that gripen will make a production line in MII just for 126 planes and after 2027 close its line as IAF not interested.. Do you think it is financially viable.
5. You are saying no private firm can make second prod line for LCA in 5-10 years, yet dassault/Boeing/Saab..in collaboration of pvt sector are saying they can start producing in 3yrs max. You wanna say no pvt firm can make LCA second production. Line operational in 3-4 yrs in India if given a order of 126 planes?
6. Again you are saying IAF only wanna buy FGFA and AMCA after 2030... And still you advocating that new prod line along with rafale line, what will happen to these production lines? And is it not that this investment will get waste..
7. Su30 and HAL line will be converted to FGFA and AMCA.. So can be utilised. More so HAL is DPSU..
To conclude, if IAF operates 12 sqn (2 old and 10 new) of rafale.. Then it needs 4 bases max. And if IAF operates 7 rafale (total 9) and 6 second MRCA.. It needs to create one more bases for rafale and three for second MRCA.. So it comes to approx 4 billion dollar extra expenditure.
Rafale flyaway cost is 83 M dollar and F18 SH is 65-70 M dollar and gripen NG will cost samabout 60-65M.
With MII and 200+ order for rafale cost will be 10-15% cheaper as its development cost is distributed over larger order and cheaper labour .. And also the cost of production is spread over bigger order.. It comes to 75M dollar...
If we get say rafale production line for 108 sqn and 108 from gripen/F18 the cost of establishing production line will increase the cost of these planes. And cost of rafale will also increase as the economies of scale is reduced.
And mate AMCA will start inducting after 2030-32.. And operating FGFA/AMCA in big numbers will be prohibitive in long run.. So IAF will go for max 10 sqn of FGFA and 10 sqn of AMCA and keep 30 sqn of 4.75++ Gen jets like rafale and supersukoi... Til 2045-50 or so..
The way out is same as I said again.. It's 2016 now..
1. Get a pvt player for second prod line for LCA and churn out minimum of 8/yr (max 16) starting 2020.. Till 2027.. We can get 56-112 odd LCA that is 03-06 sqn... After 2024-27 HAL line will produce NLCA (46). The additional LCA can be inducted by IAF is 4 sqn (80) taking the total number to 10 sqn. Rest 32 can be exported. And LCA is cheap..about 40M each...
2. Tell dassault to establish a line of 12/24/36 or 15/30/45... If cleared by 2016 end they can start producing by 2021 Jan.. So the possible number wud be like this..
2021/22/23 -16*3= 48
2024-27-- 24* 4= 96
So a total of 144 Rafales.....
Out of IAF can induct 96 and can also get 18 from France taking a total induction to 108.
So total aircraft that can be inducted by IAF 108 rafale ( 6 sqn) and 80 LCA ( 4sqn). That means a total of 10 sqn by 2027..
Rest 54 (3sqn) can be inducted by IN.. What estimate I have give for rafale line is conservative one.. It can increase production a bit more also..
This calculation does not have scope for new production line for new aircraft.
In your rafale export order possible can go vey big... Like Saudi 72 and fifth trance of FrAF.. But if dassault make rafale in India..every other is not even required..bcoz IN/IAF alone can ask for about 250+ rafale..and add about 80-100 for FrAF.. These two will become priority and rest all will wait except Egypt and Qatar..dassult can increase merignac production line to 22-33 / yrs.. And after fulfilling orders for qatar+ India(54) + FrAaF(45)... After 2023 or so they can start exporting Saudi order if its placed..but the point is Rafale cost will come dwon will such big orders... And it will better for both india and France.